i can't vouch for the atlanta fed. we would be thrilled with 3% 4.6%.but they are talking i don't want to critique the atlanta fed but it just shows you. of economicsensus forecasting has moved up. it may very, but it has moved up. i think that's great. reporter: for the republicans in the midterms, it seems like the q2 numbers are coming up to give them an advantage? months of three full media messaging off the last quarter's numbers. we are getting a q3 preliminary for the last week of october. but we didn't invent the deadline, it is out there, the commerce department, etc.. it's alike a story, growth story. we are beating the estimates and i have many friends on the democratic side and i respect them. said you couldn't get 2% and we are moving into a 3% zone and may moving into a 4% zone. may be moving into a 4% zone. confidenceconsumer and the business confidence and the small business conference. i think that's interesting, it's a good form of economic polling. it's a very strong story, and i think policies are h

the atlanta fed is pushing it could be as high as 4.7%. we are going to have sustained growth. the plan is 3% or higher sustained growth. as it relates to inflation. a little bit of inflation is a good thing. the fed has been for a while targeting higher inflation. one of the things we have been focused on is wage growth. great financial markets for the last 8 years. no wage growth. you can check that off the box. we now thanks to president trump's economic plan we are seeing wage growth. i think inflation will be under control, but that's something we have to be careful to watch. >> tariffs and trade according to markets and individuals look at the back and forth and tit for tat. you have been leading the charge in terms of beijing and our relationship there. you talked about investment restrictions we were expecting are not happening. give us a status clesk what's going on with china and the united states. are we in a trade war? >> we are not in a trade war. we are in a trade dispute. our objective is to have reciprocal trade. i think everybody understands this. we have one o

i can't make out that forecast but judging from the atlanta fed.ll the forecasters in the private sector are looking at equally high numbers and, stu, i know it is unfashionable, lord help us, president donald trump has changed policies, lowering tax rates, rolling back regulations, opening up energy, trade reform. he has given the economy new life. he has given the economy new incentives. people are responding to that. we're not punishing success. we're not fighting business anymore. he is looking after the workforce, whether it is manufacturing or agriculture. you see what i'm saying? he had a sea change in policies and a sea change in attitude. and the confidence numbers show what this boom is looking like this. small business, large business, consumer sentiment. this is going on for a while. and the stock market as you noted at the top of the show. stuart: we have a fantastic bull run. we're record highs almost across the board. what stops it? do you see anything on the horizon which would stop it, like a flare-up in the trade deal with china?

we don't have a lot of people estimating yet, but atlanta fed down 4.4% from its previous yesterday. we'll watch that 3% number i think that's a good number to hold after a strong 4% in the second quarter >> i'm going to go out and say the cnbc estimate, your estimate is more accurate than the atlanta fed. >> we studied that, by the way i don't want to say how much, but we did a previous when we were half a point better atlanta fed has some problems it keeps making coming out of the box. it has to come down a lot. but we have shown we're consistently more accurate than the atlanta fed. >> the problem they're having is they're not watching you enough, steve. >> so we want to know is the current job growth sustainable joining us now is anthony chan, and the deputy u.s. economists at s&p global. do you see any clues with the numbers today that give us any hints about the future >> you know, i like to look at it in both what's the potential labor force that could come in with this kind of economic growth and i see that, you know, this 200 plus average of gains it is maybe in the next, yo

, atlanta fed is telling you it may be repeated and better than the second quarter >> the naysayersthis economy, and there's a lot of them out there, the naysayers do have a point they say wage inflation and wage growth has not kept up with the pace of the u.s. economy, and that's the negative. you believe it sounds like we're close to that finally changing >> i still believe in supply and demand if there's more demand for labor and a thick supply of labor, you'll have that >> we know people who change jobs on average are getting big raises what about people at their job and who are not going to change their job. do they have the ability to negotiate maybe a raise? >> why negotiate just change jobs change is always good. embrace change >> maybe you are a career coach. >> you know, the other thing that gets to me is productivity. productivity will start to accelerate again there's this idea out there we're in structural stagnation, we will never get potentially higher growth. we can't do it >> if there are not enough workers, to me that's a structural problem >> not enough workers, w

the atlanta fed raising the gd forecast for the july through september quarter to 4.6%.rump giving canada a deadline this friday, do the trade deal along with mexico or the u.s. and mexico will move on without it. president trump threatened to tax canada's entire auto sector if canada does not do a deal. nafta talks have been going on for a year. the canadian american business council they could sign a revamped nafta deal this week. edward lawrence live at u.s. trade-offses in d.c. where the canadian foreign minister is meeting. she cut her trip short in europe to get to d.c. to do this deal. edward, what is the latest? >> exactly, liz. she walked in two or three minutes ago to start the meeting with the u.s. trade representative. she is here because the u.s. and mexico came up with an agreement the president is calling the united states-mexico trade agreement. the man who is in charge of negotiating for mexico, the mexico economic minister told me in an exclusive interview canada should sign on financially. it may make sense for them. >> ox have youly the, for mexico we

the atlanta fed is telling us they will expect the third quarter to keep coming in at 4.6 percent. if it keeps going this will become the great acceleration. this far along, you don't expect an acceleration but it isn't a surprise. we talked about the reasons for the great meandering for many years. the obamaabout how administration policies was a drag on the economy and if they would remind, the economy could pick up steam and we go about having regulatory debate in a stronger economy. not that the obama administration didn't want a stronger economy, they did. but they always wanted something else more. we now have seen strong evidence the arguments were valid. the first thing the trump administration did was to suspend regulations in the pipeline of various agencies. and as congress got into a review act including what they were allowed to repeal that were growth, theconomic trump administration set out with regulatory reforms of their own that we are seeing unfold. all of these were important. what was that the exchange was the economy. up.umer confidence has shot grown robustly

the atlanta fed is telling us they are projecting the third quarter to come in at 4.6 percent. if we keep accelerating like this, this will become the great acceleration, a remarkable event when you think about how far we are since the recession. this many years into an expansion, you don't expect an acceleration but it is not a surprise. we talked about the reasons for the great meandering for many years. we talked about these events in prior years, how the obama administration's regulatory policies was a drag on the economy and if they would relent, the economy could pick up steam and we go about having regulatory debate in a stronger economy. not that the obama administration didn't want a stronger economy, they did. but they always wanted something else more. the other thing always one out. -- won out. we now have seen strong evidence that the arguments were valid. the first thing the trump administration did was to suspend regulations in the pipeline of various agencies. congress got into the act of repealing the regulations they were allowed to repeal that were particular

the atlanta fed comes out, says we are expecting 4.3% for the third quarter.traight quarters of 4% growth possible. is this sustainable? >> i think so. maria: the way the consumer feels to you today, you think that's sustainable? >> yeah. consumers is the right word, right question, because 70% of gdp growth is driven by consumption. so we just need to make sure that this consumer is still feeling good three months from now, six months from now, nine months from now. pocketbook is good, unemployment remains very, very low. all of these indications of confidence that are there today need to remain -- maria: how sensitive you think the consumer will be of higher interest rates? we heard from powell on friday, they had the jackson hole meeting. we know the fed will probably raise rates in september. do you think that a steady sort of slow but steady move in rates impacts, changes it for the consumer? >> first you have to begin with the base. we are at 2% interest rate. it's not like we are at 8% going to 9%. we are at 2% interest rate. we are at record lows. i th

. >>> so putting it all tog preliminary estimates from the atlanta fed today showed that the economyld be growing as much as 5% here in t third quarter. let's dig deeper into these threela p with the economy where chief u.s. economist. good to see you. >> nice to be here. >> let's start with jobs. that's a ercoone of the economy and it has been very, very tight. how mu better does the job market get, do you think? >>well, o thing is that after such a lackluster jobs market, it's greatha to see it's healthy again. we're expecting some nice readings friday. we're thinking it will probably be on the low side given the readings from adp, but overall, the jobs numbers were holding up rather well and we think it will last through yher and we expect to see the unemployment rate dropy 3.6% by 20, a nice reading. >> let's turn to the consumer. we just really highlighted how important they are to the economy. what's your best guess as to whether that c continue at the rate that it has been growing? >> i should add that whil the jobs numbers are holding rather well and peopleng are getore job,

the latest forecast from the atlanta fed on growth in the current quarter is 4.3%.back quarters potentially of north of 4% growth. maria: that's for the third quarter they've got that? dagen: yes, the next update is friday, august 24th. but again, people are feeling this prosperity. they're feeling more comfortable. they know that their wages are going up. and again, it started at the beginning of the year with literally millions of companies raising wages and paying out bonuses to people. >> the opportunities are there. and the american consumer is not going to believe the lie. we have to continue to stay encouraged and understand what we can control. i think if we do that, as you look at it, you can go past the silly and focus on the substance. maria: this is a good point, that the american people are not going to fall for the lies. we're talking about the midterm elections, probably one of the most important elections that we've seen in a long time. think about the investigations that are going on with regard to the fbi and the doj, if the house flips and the dem

the atlanta fed says wages are up 3.3%. and also 2.2%. proxy for national income. it's translating into the big retail gains. people feel flush, and the secret sauce that obama never delivered. people are optimistic. i think that's why they are spending more on their credit cards and spending more in general. charles: there was a demonization, and i remember people were afraid to go down the street in a blooming dale's bag. it was something of an embarrassment. we did hear a lot that you could be too greedy and make too much money. >> i think social media and instagram has helped out that envy. but that 9.7% growth spending in restaurants and bars tells me a lot of people are flush with cash. here is my problem politically. voters don't vote out of gratitude. if the republicans want to hold congress, they have to tout the economy and remind voters if they put schumer and pelosi back in power they will raise your taxes and have open borders. so you have to remind voters not just how good things are, but what the consequences are of giving back power. charles: all of

up next, the atlanta fed president will be at 4:00 eastern time. real yield is up next.berg. ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network designed to save you money. whether you use your phone to get fit. to find meaningful, thoughtful, slightly-weird gifts. or just to know which way you're facing right now. however you use it, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your xfinity internet. so you just pay for data -- by the gig or unlimited. saving you hundreds of dollars a year. plus, get $300 back when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. jonathan: from new york city, 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: fed chair jay powell forging ahead with interest rate hikes. president trump telling italy america is willing to buy italian debt. -- in the best-performing fixed income this year. fed speak in jackson hole. >> we ought to be moving towards neutral, which means three or four increases over the next

the atlanta fed had predictions that were more bullish with optimism about the economy and the marketand this has been arting of late, but it got bump from the weaker dollar. there was support of higher prices, and we have been talking about gold. this is one of the popular etf's, but there analysts now saying that the big drop in gold could be setting up for some type of rebound and that there is an interesting play that in,e funds are taking part which has the more durable the mores opposed to bearish bets in the commodity at itecord level, but the etf, looks like there are a lot of holders holding on, and there may be some type of end of year rebound. stay tuned. haidi: thank you. let's get to first word news. investors turned more optimistic that a deal will be reached before next march. yields tumbled as the eu chief negotiator said that they plan to give britain an unprecedented partnership, unlike given to another country. and appealing to the imf for faster cash, with a payout in june and a credit line. an additionalting $3 billion next month, but the government is asking them

currently the atlanta fed sees the current square at 4.3%. there is walmart.y posted their earnings. the company exhibited that nice combination. pricing power. think about it. traffic ticket internet. after the close nordstrom just posted a monster earnings report. the stock has been up 14% in the afterhours trading. it's one that should get more investors to invest here. we saw the huge move without the high-flying tech names. consumer sentiment has shifted. can the dow and other major indices break out of the all-time highs before labor day. here to discuss whether this happens tonight. i want to bring in my good friend, david nelson. break out new highs before labor day? >> i really don't know. charles: what would it take? >> if we take our eye off the geopolitical, it's the earnings that bailed us out every time. it was walmart and tonight it's a company like nordstrom. we are rallying not with just the bang names. we have the industrials doing well. retail which was in secular decline. manufacturing which was in secular decline and they are doing quite w

the atlanta fed in the gdp model is now looking at 5%. ♪ ♪ ♪ our new, hot, fresh breakfast will get younn express. be the readiest. stuart: solid gain thus far. 73 points up, 25,400 is the score on the dow. now this. iran has started naval exercises in the straits of hormuz. come on in walid phares, former trump policy advisor. we're reporting that they're launching a lot of small boats, a naval exercise, possibly as a provocation, hey, we could close the strait of hormuz if we wanted to. they are not folk do do that, are they? >> they could do the actual exercise. they have done it before. the question is, how far will they go? will they actually block the strait or not. the iranians can't if they want, damage the international passage. the united states can intercept them, stop them, damage their own capacity. brinksmanship of capacity with gaming with us. i think that the united states is very much attend tiff to what they're doing, will respond if the iranians will cross the red line. stuart: that is rather weak threat, if they try to block the straights of hormuz and block passage

i think really last week was for me remarkable when the durable goods number came out and the atlanta fedto 4.6% on their gdp model. how do you feel about this rally. the fact that we have momentum back and so many things that were potential head winds could now become a tail wind. >> this is a rally based on fundamentals. the u.s. economy is going extremely strongly. we are talking about total investment spending all growing. i attribute it squarely to tax reform. i think the tax bill was clutch in increasing potential growth in the u.s. and long-term sustainable growth. i am encourage our clients, if there is a pullback, if it could be per sip 8 by the democrats taking the house and impeachment being the next order of the day to be going long in this market. charles: how much cash are you sitting in? >> if you want to take some profits today is a great time. but sit on some cash waiting for the next opportunity which i think could happen. if the market gets spooked we'll be recommending reentry into the market. charles: been now and then we could be up another 200 points in the dow. >>

the atlanta fed is considered -- is predicting 4.3%. here is the point. who does the lyrical forecasting using the economy always focuses on a number, and make me, real disposable income. think of it as after-tax pay. take-home pay, ronald reagan used to say. at 3.1%sure is growing for the last 12 months. when we came to office, it was less than 1% on a 12 month basis. it has jumped. people say i'm a only if you are benefiting, not true. this is a measure of the entire economy. everyone's wages and salaries adjusted for taxes and it is a tremendous number. there are no signs it is abating. confidence numbers -- large businesses, small businesses, and humor confidence numbers are at or near record highs and from the latest surveys are continuing to rise. there is no let up in the increase and confidence is everything. i can run down a litany. i will not take up your time. wonderful part of the story for me. very important for the country. the new numbers coming in, retail sales do show production. the dollar -- a rocksteady dollar. trillions of dollars int

friday, the atlanta fed said it, right now this quarter -- and it's still early but we are growing at about 4.6%. we started last monday at 4.6%. so as the data keeps coming through it feels like the economy is getting stronger and stronger. what i love about this is, it's a win-win. especially the part about the workers making $16. canada will look at that and they will love it because canada competes with mexico and mexico has a point where they can't go below, that makes it easier for candida to be with someone for those auto contents. >> they do have a political transition coming up. does canada join or work out its own deal? >> i think it would behoove canada to join. one is how you resolve disputes, there's something called a chapter 19 in the current nafta deal, or you get sort of a cross-country panel. we have lost a lot of those. >> we have lost too many of those fact, and to buoy quite frank with you, they have been unfair to american workers. they want to protect certain industries. >> president-elect is taking over, and that seemed to be very positive. we have a political

right now gdp forecast, atlanta fed saying we're going to 4.3%, it feels we're on pace to achieve that 3% growth, that so many experts, experts said would never happen again. >> washington establishment said it will not happen again. you get someone in there on the side of the american. versus on the side of some other country. president trump once said, why are we five giving military help to a country, they give their businesbusiness to other countr. charles: he brought common sense aspect to dc. you wonder why a lot of stuff he does no one did it before. your businesses touch all new yorkers, you understand, you feel what is happening on the ground. 5forget about polls for a min m, because this a liberal town. do you see the optimism. it feels like a consumer confidence, and enthusiasm is through the roof, as long as you don't bring up politics it reveals itself. >> the optimism is there, you see more cranes, more buildings build, new york city is capital of the world, everyone is moving to new york, like miami is capital much south america, anyone in south america middle class with

fed to pause. i thought the earlier comment about the atlanta reserve chair saying he is in favor of three rate hikes. cheryl: for the year. >> the market priced in four. two more this year. i think if we do get to a fed pause, i think that will have significant implications how investors are positioned. right now investors record long the u.s., record short safe assets. sorry, long the dollar, short gold, short treasurys. this thread the needle powell speech but not prepared for any kind of change. cheryl: i don't know, jack. say that they don't raise rates. say they raise rates in september pretty much babed in, but they don't in december, then they have to do it in january? >> not necessarily, i like the yield curve, the message embedded in the yield curve. bostick says he does do. he will not tighten yates to invert the yield curve. that is the key message -- cheryl: that would be a bad thing. >> don't flatten the yield curve. cheryl: flattened yield curve makes folks worry, jay, because that might be a pending recession that would not be out of the question since we had a nine-year bull market a

atlanta fed 4.4. mike enguilty lung 3.5 and jim o'sullivan 3.0 on to jobs, weaker than expected july report that is actually stronger than it looks 157 versus 190 with the estimate look at those powerful may and june revisions 59,000 to the upside average hourly wages a tick more, 0.3% than the estimate of 0.2%. and there were several one-off factors that might have biased the number lower one, toys "r" us layoffs of 32,000. that could have been a negative. low response rate to the survey, and a big perhaps seasonal decline in education we haven't seen a july like this in both private and public education services in a very long time. so here's where the jobs were. leisure and hospitality up 40,000, manufacturing 37, temporary help 28,000. construction, despite complaints we can't find construction workers, up 19,000 there's retail up just 7,000, perhaps lowered by the toys "r" us layoff. economists caution investors have to be wary. it could be the beginning of a trending and tariff troubles in the f

steve liesman, we were waiting to hear from you, what you thought about the atlanta fed redakotaing 5%h for the third quarter. >> we did a good study on that as meghan said, they have this habit of getting it wrong in the first read off of that first ism report and it's wrong by a lot, like a point and a half or something like that. but we are still -- that said, we still have sort of a strong forecast for the nirk in that 3% remember, potential as far as anybody else is concerned is around 2%, maybe it's 2.25 if you stretch it if we do 3% that's a good number above it and would be a little bit softer from the second quarter. i'm looking by the way, guys at the fed probabilities. and they are just slightly slower i don't think meaningfully still looking at a 90% probability now. the september hike, 63 for december and the next place where you ge a greater than 50% probability is ahead to june, 2019 62%. that's the outlook right now it will be interesting i think that september meeting that's where i expect people to begin to set their expectations in a more meaningful way for what happ

the atlanta fed, gdp model, preliminary, predicting 5% for q3. i would be happy with 3. they're predicting 5. we're off to a good start. >> the unemployment numbers dropped before 4% to 3.9%. that puts it .2 off of a 50 year low. back in 1969, the unemployment rate was 3.7%. we're close to that. republicans are complaining the white house isn't doing enough to sell the good economic numbers ahead of the mid-terms. >> shepard: john, china announced retaliatory tariffs on tens of billions in goods. what sort of reaction there? >> $60 billion in american goods is what china is targeting with tariffs, anywhere between 5 and 25%. half of the $60 billion would be subject to a 25% tariff. this is in respond to the announcement earlier this week from the white house that the president's next tranche of tariffs against china, which would be against $200 billion of goods may increase from 10 to 25%, which really could sting in terms of china's manufacturing of the chinese economy. let's listen to what larry kudlow said about that this morning. >> china better take president trump'

we talked to atlanta fed president rafael bostic who believes 2.25 and 2.75%. in his mind he would see two or three more rate hikes now into next year. >> i would be comfortable with a move in sent, if the data comes in as we're expecting it. but if it comes in a little hotter that might impact my longer-run trajectory. comes in a little cooler if, for example, we get a big sign that the auto industry is starting to struggle a bit i would be comfortable with a deeper pause. reporter: bostic says he sees companies hold back with wait and see attitude going forward. because of that the fiscal stimulus could go forward into next year. kristina. kristina: thank you, edward. for those that missed interview find it on foxbusiness.com. the full thing was great. ashley: good stuff. bringing in the moose. let's bring in today's market panel. carol roth, investment banker and dominic at tavella. this is the goldilocks situation, not too hot, not too cold. the markets liked what the fed had to say. dovish statement from the federal reserve head there, and markets seemed t

factorsseen a number of of the tenure curve and the atlanta fed president, a note onm the san francisco fed their macro blog about the difference between the three year and the ten-month curves and what the best way to think about it in terms of recession is, so common to have been around everywhere. it's reasonable that they should. two tends is 20 basis points. that is one hike away from inversion. if you look at the three-month tenure, that is another three hikes away from inversion. how you decide which one will be your one indicator is going to depend on what timeframe you but how your model works, the fed clearly does not want to invert the yield curve unless they feel like they have to. they don't feel like they have tonow and they are likely only inverted after two or three more hikes. the could happen as 10 year yields fall, but if there is no catalyst for that, it's likely the curve will stay close to inversion and we will read incoming data as it develops in q1 and q2 of next year. that will inform how they move around the neutral rate in 2019. joe: grow quickly back to stock

that we thought never could come back, and i see that with this economy. 4.3% which is where the atlanta fed has the current quarter after another 4% growth. we didn't think this was possible known, foster. in a way, that's something to celebrate, isn't it? >> well, now, charles, have those employment numbers gotten more realistic? a lot of times the employment numbers go down because they take people out of workforce. i believe there is more people working than ever, it would be nice if we could figure how many people are not working as opposed to unemployed. i think it's a phony number because you're not looking for a job. i'd like a closer look at the numbers. be that as it may, things are rolling well. the success i enjoyed, i told my clients never invest in the stock market, invest in individual businesses, where we made our mark is how do we find companies doing better than people expect? everybody expected it to do well, discounts the privacy the stock. the harder market for guys who are in my different approach because people are playing the market rather than individual companies. c

president on this, i mean we got 3.1% gdp in the first half of the year 4.1 in the second quarter the atlanta fed is predicting 4.3 in the third quarter. i think it's a very realistic estimate here's a point anybody who does political forecasting using the economy always felt this is on a number, hang with me, real disposable income think of it as after tax pay, take-home pay ronald reagan used to say so that measure is growing at 3.1% last 12 months when we came to office, it was less than 1% on a 12-month basis. it has jumped. so people say only a few are benefiting not true this is a measure of the entire economy. everyone's wages and salaries adjusted for taxes and adjusted for taxes has grown 3% it's a tremendous number and there is no signs that it's abateing confidence, confidence numbers, large businesses, small businesses, and consumer confidence numbers are at or near record highs and from the latest surveys are continuing to rise there's no letup in the increase and confidence is everything confidence is everything i can run down the litany. i am not going to take up your time i'm just

at the atlanta fed they have a median wage tracker. -- the lady doesn't change her skill level from month to month. this is' a much better measure. that's 3.2% now. there is modest positive wage growth. i think 2.9 cpi number you cited, i'd rather cite 2.2 people stop buying something, oranges to apples when expensive. we're looking at 1% wage growth right now. we think it needs to be 2% and then we're hoping that that's what we're going to see now that the capital spending is happening, wages will fall. >> we don't want to bore our audience why we like median more than averages. the problem with using median wage growth is that we know that the rich are also earning more money. so when you talk about the average being skewed lower by low wage earners who are entering the work force, arguably you could use the same argument on the other end, right? >> that's right. the median is telling you about the typical middle class guy, what's happening to him and that's an important piece of the puzzle but it's not the only thing. and you know,

the atlanta fed is predicting 4.3 in the third quarter. i think it's a very realistic estimate. here's the point: anybody who does political forecasting using the economy always focuses on a number -- hang with me -- real disposable income. just think of it as after-tax pay -- "take-home pay," ronald reagan's used to say. so that measure is growing at 3.1 percent the last 12 months. when we came to office, it was less than 1 percent on a 12-month basis. it has jumped. so people say only a few are benefitting. not true. this is a measure of the entire economy. everyone's wages and salaries, adjusted for taxes and adjusted for inflation, is growing at 3 percent. it's a tremendous number. and there's no signs that's abating. confidence numbers, large businesses, small businesses, and consumer confidence numbers are at or near record highs, and, from the latest surveys, are continuing to rise. there's no letup in the increase. and confidence is everything. confidence is everything. and i can run down the litany -- i'm not going to take up your time. i'm just saying. the really wonde

the the atlantic fed -- atlanta fed is showing for gdp growth -- the economy is still growing nicely. doing well. we entered third quarter with momentum. pmi holding up. retail sales surprised on upside. we saw good numbers from retailers. the u.s. economy in third quarter is probably going to do fine. david: why with the fed back off of raising rates? lisa: they absolutely will not. the president will engage in his rhetoric. much of it is aimed at the current negotiations in washington. we will see a, meeting between u.s. officials and chinese officials in the next couple days, as well as with mexico. that is rhetoric. at morgan stanley, we have been calling for a peak in the u.s. dollar for the last three months. we are starting to see that thesis play out. it has a lot to do with the fact that the long dollar position in the world has gotten to a point of extremes -- particularly reflected in the futures market -- we are starting to see that reverse as the markets recognize the fed is probably not going to back off. we are probably at a maximum of growth differentials, economic sur

alix: the atlanta fed president said he would height.e would not want to hike into a yield curve inversion. over fedcontrol policy? constrainhink it will the front. i think we get one more rate hike this year. we might get to. alix: you are not alone. --ammad ali are you said mohammed all area in -- no matter how confident the regional bank presidents were a jackson hole, there is an external question that influences what the fed will end up doing it in december. what do you think? i think there could be real wage increases. they have been minimal. driver the fundamental between the lack of wage growth? i would say it's the technological revolution, automation. wagethe people from higher jobs toward retail, these are keeping real wages down. the fed can hike one more time. i think we are in a goldilocks environment where we have low inversion, strong growth, and a fed that has the capacity to normalize policy. david: i love that expression. what does that say about how the fed manages going forward? do we have to rethink the phillips cur

louis fed president , as well as the dallas fed president and the atlanta fed president.. do not forget to watch "commodities edge" at 1:00 p.m. eastern. david: this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is the countdown to the open. coming up, the united states and china imposing tariffs on each other's goods just as trade talks resume in washington. federal reserve preparing to raise interest rates again. the internal debate over hikes intensifying. saudi aramco's ipo delayed. remaining just there. well out of reach. in the markets, 30 minutes away from the opening bell. a classic old-school morning. price action nowhere to be seen. futures, dead flat. bond market, dead fat. fx market, just a little bit of dollar strength. at 115.74. through the week, federal annual get-together on the heels of the release of minutes from their july meeting. little doubt that the chairman plans to lend the benchmark lending rate next month. >> we will be focusing

ceo.ation share of the atlanta fed. i'm cars to health care.nsurance is one of the most important issues across the country. continuing concern about availability and price for the federal government is announcing a program to help some get more affordable health insurance. cÉsar.ome alex >> great to be with you again. david: tell us what your plan is. tell us what you are adopting today. act isaffordable care not working for so many people. premiums doubling. with the president has been committed to is getting more options that are available to people. we are announcing his the approval of short-term limited duration plans, individually underwritten, an individual does apply for them. they can cover various conditions, price to whatever is being covered. these were available throughout the entirety of the obama administration up to 12 months. obama end of the administration they allowed only three months coverage because they wanted to force people out of these cheaper options and to to shovecare exchanges people in there. we are restoring the

fed president's of st. louis, dallas, cleveland, atlanta. first, i first word -- a first word. >> in australia, the treasurer scott morrison will be sworn in as the country's prime minister after ruling liberal lawmakers voted to oust malcolm turnbull. he will consider appointments to his cabinet over the weekend as the government attempts to boost it lagging poll numbers ahead of an election due by may. >> our team needs to look after the event of this weekend how that is impacted on them. they are going back to their families and will listen and bring things back to us. where there needs to be changes, they will be made. where there needs to be continuity, that will be maintained. u.s.-china negotiations have wrapped up with no age or progress, setting the stage for further escalation of the trade war. cameonclusion of talks hours after beijing and washington rolled out their latest round of tit-for-tat tariffs. bloomberg understands no further meeting has been scheduled, while chinese officials raised the possibility negotiations could no

atlanta fed president says he sees no signs of the economy overheating. he says the fed policies are working. he is a voting member for the fomc, bostick says there should be three rate hikes this year, not four. >> so coming into this year, i was at a viewpoint that we would have three moves this year. i'm still there, and i think the risks are balanced and the upside and on the downside and neither -- which has not pushed me to change my projection. i said i'm going to let the data inform how i think about what appropriate policy is. >> should that policy be september? let the economy go a little bit? run a little bit or go december? >> some data points between now and then that will help form that. i would be comfortable with a move in december as the data comes in as we're expecting it. if it comes in hotter, that might impact my longer run. if it becomes cooler, if for example we get a big sign that the auto industry is starting to struggle a bit, then i'd be comfortable with a deeper clause. >> he revised yearly gdp projection up to 2.7%. he's hearin