it's your verizon. >>> let's get to steve liesman with austan goolsbee. >> i am joined by austan goolsbee jobs report came out. how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. >> sorry we can't be together in studio so you can get roughed up here tell me, the jobs report came out today, a couple mixed signals. you had higher wages, strong wage gains, but also trajectory of lower job gains how do you process this especially when it comes to your outlook for inflation? >> well, steve, we've always said for all the years we've been talking about the jobs numbers, they're plus or minus 130,000 on the jobs number, just in terms of margin for error so, it never made too much out of any one month if you take a step back, it's clear the job market is still very strong, but is cooling. if you look at the ratios of vacancies to the number of unemployed workers, for example, it's definitely coming down. we're getting to a more sustainable pace, which is what we need to do for inflation. now, you know i've been -- i would at least give people a caution in taking wage data as if it's a leading indicator of wher

something different than from austan goolsbee. a great interview with the ceo of amazon, andy jassy, going from a big bank take to a big tech take. take a listen. >> i don't think any of us believe we're out of the woods with the economy as i said, i think there's a lot of uncertainty and i don't think anybody knows what the next several months will be like. like everybody, we have a plan and we had a plan the last few years, too things changed >> bryn, back over to you. you talked about possible versus probable it seems like andy jassy is saying it's very probable that we have something close to a hard landing >> i mean, think about the infrastructure that andy jassy runs and so i think that's just being a smart ceo. you're not going to lean in early because there's such a complexity to the business i think amazon, what i thought was interesting from the interview, is that he's not saying -- he's not going the mark zuckerberg route saying this is a year of efficiency we're business as usual. we will continue to deliver with aws,

austan goolsbee was saying something like a soft landing. i think if cpi comes down, the july at hike i think will happen but that will build a feeling maybe they will be able to pull this off to slow inflation without crushing the economy. i know others think a recession is coming but we haven't seen it yet. matt: a lot of people have said or have been saying for a while that we are in a recession and we don't know it and now saying the data is worse than we have ever seen it. we would really have to lose a lot of jobs, wouldn't we, in order to get into a situation where we would be considered in a recession? mike: we would have to see business spending and consumer spending fall off, neither of which is happening. so the markers used to set up a recession are not there yet. this is a very divided economic community and bond market because there are half of the people who think we are going to go into a recession in the fed is going to go too far and another half think the fed is on track to land that plane softly. one of the things that wi

a jobs report that came in a bit softer than the street was expecting, and chicago fed president austanoolsbee telling cnbc he is still undecided about what the fed should do in july. steve liesman will be along shortly with more from that interview. it all brings us to our talk of the tape and whether today's jobs report was just right to keep the fed from turning much more aggressive even as it shows still strong labor market and what it all might mean for the rally. let's ask charles schwab's liz ann sonders. great to speak with you on all this i guess the question is, do you think the market is correct to take a little bit of comfort out of today's numbers, essentially we're not seeing an overheating economy but also not one that's outright stalling? >> yeah, i suppose in the context of the nearly 500,000 adp print, which really kind of freaked out investors, i think you can take some comfort, but of course, we're starting to see the weakening that although the fed wants to continue to quell inflation, might be starting to send some signs of sort of full official recession versus wh

one of the interesting issues is, i gave a lot of credit to austan goolsbee and what he brought to the and his views. you have to agree with him that said i think the acceleration that we have seen two months a row, in hospitality, are things we need to watch for we're seeing a lot of contract negotiations out there they are worried that we get cpi baked into those contracts that is starting to happen in europe you just don't want to have that indexation to be baked in, because it can give you a residual inflation effect. >>going to say, one is you don't have big wage gains in industries that don't have strong employment. so the leisure and hospitality wages. so the other thing, you don't have unions striking when they're afraid for their jobs. so the confidence with which the unions are negotiating these days tells me the job market and labor market remains tight >> still feels like the balance of power is with the employees >> it is right now i'm hoping the next time we come back here, diane tightens up her forecast and gets it a little more accurate. tighten it up, diane >> we can a

is it something more persistent questionl mark that is coming from austan goolsbeeee.e is not ready, it seems to me, to declare it ready. particularly when you look at the numbers on friday. core pce -- the pce price index, it is consumer spending and the income report, the one the fed watches most closely. in a year-over-year basis, the headline stayed at three point 3% year-over-year. still above 2%. but the core that takes out food and energy barely declined, from 4.7 to 4.6. when jay powell spoke at the you see the conference in portugal last week, he talked about the core services, particularly how housing is not coming down enough, underscoring this will be a big debate going into the next meeting, and importantly again that vista gold -- mr. goolsby is saying there is more data. everything will make a difference and that is what they are focused on. so the next three weeks are very important in that regard. haidi: a huge week for eco-data that could move markets end-yields. and of course the u.s. jobs report. andl of course the tankan survey>> small firms in tho

we're going to have austan g goolsbee on torms and we'll put all the questions to him >> the market says, we can breathe easier they don't seem to be targeting some big jump in unemployment to get the job done does this change with the run of hot numbers? we got the j.o.l.t.s. data you can read that in either direction. but what are the stakes in terms of causing a rethink for the whole path for the fed >> we had a discussion on the 230 cnbc news call about what the goldilocks number is let me lay out goldie longs. you have a check or two on the unemployment rate. the workweek might be lengthening out. that would be fine i think, mike, and you tell me if i'm wrong about this. the market is more or less okay with two more hikes. i think that's the upper end of tolerance. it's when you start talking about the possibility of a third hike or fourth hike, getting into the 6s. that's where the market might be concerned. the 5% yield on the 2-year is a chac you can earn 5% with little risk that's been an increasing challenge to it. the other size is if we hit the 400 number, a big bust in wages

looking to see the cme fed watch tool a 90% chance of a hike coming up this month we had austan goolsbeeng expect two more hikes it may not come in july of he believes we can achieve a soft landing with the two hikes. what is your prospect on the likelihood of hikes? >> i think the market is right more than likely, a hike this month and two more this year the labor market data was weak in the terms of the number of jobs created, but people overlooked the hourly average number was relatively strong suggesting there is wage pressure that is what the fed is focused on i think they want to get ahead of that as much as they possibly can. two more and one in july. >> you are looking at the wage numbers and jobs report. the other thing people are looking forward to is cpi and ppi. i want to bounce this off you. the wednesday cpi report and in june of 2022, cpi was 9% forecast to 3.9% year over year. if we are below forecast, we are showing the audience a graph, does that change the likelihood of the hike at this month's meeting in. >> i don't think so for two reasons. first, if you look at the

colleagues will tackle the further rate hikes today with chicago fed president austan goolsbee.hat interview is coming up at 17:30 cet. >>> notable that the cac 40 has crossed into positive territory. we have bounced off the lows in nearly every market. dax now trading below the flat line stabilization after the steepest one-day fall since march yesterday. the stoxx 600 dropped 2.3% jitters across the globe after that stronger than expected adp report stateside u.s. futures at the moment are looking weaker fairly steady. a lot of investors now in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the nfp report that's it for the show i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. >>> it is 5:00 a

williams is the latest fed speaker to say there will be more hikes, but a soft landing last week, it was austan goolsbee do you believe it is possible? do we get two more hikes and still see a soft landing in the u.s. economy >> frank, it is all about the juxtaposition we have today. you have monetary policy which is hawkish you have fiscal policy which is sup suppressive to the economy think about the measures with the inflation reduction act and national security measures and rewiring of the supply chains and infrastructure spend trillions of dollars infused into the market creating jobs, et cetera. that is one of the major reasons why despite very sharp rate hikes with the economy holding up well. >> it sounds like you are saying the fed sees it the way investors see it good news is bad news. wage increases and stimulus put into the u.s. economy. that is bad news when it comes to inflation long term, how does that cycle play out people have more money to spend. prices remain elevated because people can spend >> that's exactly it that's why, you know, looking at inflation figures is all about

we heard from austan goolsbee president of the chicago fed pride a.e thinks the fed is on a sustainable path to bringing inflation down keeping the door open to more rate hikes and signaling, he thinks, that we are ready to achieve a soft landing. the big number this week will be the consumer price index on wednesday expected to show improvement on the headline. not as much on the core. big numbers on friday. big numbers at this week. a lot of fed speak coming up for the markets to digest. >> yes. a couple central bank decisions when it comes to asia as well, kathleen, firmly fixed on that. markets in this part of the world. australian futures look like about .4% higher relative to fair value. you could see and airily -- early gain of .2%. or broadly, sustained weakness when it comes to asian stocks after we had wall street closing on the back foot last week. the jobs data kathleen mentioned supporting more than one fed hike to come. the aussie dollar just under 70 u.s. cents at the moment. closing of the love the june 20 six high. when it comes to tr

setting at again da today, chicago fed president austan goolsbee live at 11:30 we'll talk about today'srell cunningham is also with us he'll talk about u.s. auto sales as they surge in the first half on strong demand. >>> and torsten slok is here. >>> let's get a check on stocks, mix with the dow jones industrial down 0.1% the s&p 500 marginally positive, similarly for the nasdaq. >>> meantime, the jobs number, of course, story number one. definitely in focus, coming in lighter than expected. our next guest says while economic data and inflation are slowing down, still not there yet and the fed will continue to step on the brakes until they get what they want

we'll be sitting tight tomorrow for your interview with chicago fed president austan goolsbee. a lot of people waiting to hear what he has to say in response to the jobs report steve liesman, thank you very much >>> let's get to our "call of the day" on microsoft. target raised to $415. the firm calls for it to be the next $3 trillion market cap. sarat, a similar call earlier this week from dan ives. the second time we're hearing this in a week >> they are a great company, firing on all cylinders. they've done everything right in terms of cloud and getting into ai we own it. we're underweight, quote, the index on it. i like the company but i wouldn't add to it at these levels you get a better opportunity it's one of the stocks that everybody has fallen in love with again pick your spot you want to own this for a long time but your market will come back on this one >> any concerns about valuation, amy? >> the stock is trading up 35 times, a richly valued company compared to its overall growth rate if you want to just take out cloud, but overall the company is not growing that fa

central banks are done when you haven't gotten a clear indication of that the fed, whether it was austanolsbee on our air a couple of weeks ago saying, you should expect two more hikes. they really believe the soft landing is achievable. >> the market is fighting the fed and the ecb on hawkish views. every time we get an inflation report, the market gets more excited about it i think it will be interesting to see how the central bankers frame the rest of the economic activity because europe is weakening. >> there's a famous movie quote, you're saying there's a chance but the movie is "dumb & dumber." so thag there's a chance of them stopping, and the fed keeps saying, no we're not going to do that how many central bankers have to say it, and ecb, and bank of japan? >> they did pause in june. there's some instincts - >> was it a pause or a hawkish pause? >> it was a hawkish pause. hawkish pause, skip, whatever it was. >> we keep coming up these names for it, different terms. >> yes, but the signal was they wanted -- they want to slow things down. they realize they've done a lot. they're w

on friday austan goolsbee talked about a golden path.rom anymore rate hikes? >> the fed is iaea norm more with a soft landing it would be great if we get a soft landing. the oweds that happen is not great. that is very unlikely in history. rarely see it play out. most 60-40 portfolios will do great you have to prepare in case that doesn't happen. charles: jay powell just changed the channel. bob, thanks a lot. hey, folks always want to hear from you whether a comment on the show about guests anything, tweet me @c-v payne. dan asked charles, how do you subscribe to your weekly letter? go to wstreet.com, my man. i write every single day the commentary is free. check it out. needham has a pretty bold prediction for disney. remember they said disney should buy netflix. disney may be up for sale. i will discuss that, and other topics with a woman who led her own entertainment juggernaut. linda mcmahon is here. celebrities like leonardo dicaprio telling us we have to buckle down, do what is right for the planlet. unfortunately one person who d

sounds different from what we've heard from the fed so far and they want to keep it loose and heard in austan goolsbee and other fed speakers that we should expect two hikes including this one expected tomorrow do you believe that we are going to see that second hike? >> you know, i think it's an open question at this stage and anyone who says too confidently one way or the other sort of needs to be more data dependent. i think it's going to thing on what happens in the next couple of inflation reports if as economists are predicting we keep seeing a steady downdrift in inflation, if things continue to just cool off and cool off, i think that there's probably a solid case this could be the last hike. you're hearing goldman sachs call for that. if on the other hand inflation isn't sort of cooling down along that steady path, i think that, you know, they've clearly signaled they're willing to do more. >> how do earnings play into this does the fed watch the earnings, specifically the bank earnings we were so concerned about the disruption in banking, tightening of credit, it doesn't appear that

charles: all right so the fed's austan goolsbee making no bones about it, what he calls a golden path it, we'll call that maybe a soft landing but many are saying this is just fool's gold. i want to bring in university of maryland economist, also columnist, peter morici. peter, soft landing, golden path, are you seeing it? >> no, i don't. i think we can afford a recession only at price not getting down to 2% inflation. that doesn't mean we might not have a month or two of 2% inflation but if you look at the history of the '70s we went through successive peaks until inflation just took off simply because the fed pulled back too soon. he is basically justifying the fed pulling back zoo soon. charles: now everyone don't stop when it comes to this there is a big tug-of-war. goldman sachs said we could see reinflation. their base case is something akin to a soft landing as well. if we don't get to that soft landing, are you looking for shallow recession a deep recession? >> it's a shallow recession. i think it is absurd to say any macro economist can say we're going to have a recession or

a jobs report that came in a bit softer than the street was expecting, and chicago fed president austanoolsbe

you had three key members of the federal reserve suggest last friday last friday austan goolsbee talked golden path. fed members as well new york fed president also sounding optimistic. the economy is long, we know as that happens that inflation will start to pull back on its own and there is this lag effect. imagine the proverbial snowball that becomes a bolder. all the hikes they did almost a year and a half period it gets bigger and bigger and bigger and rolling down hill faster and faster. they have got to be very careful that maybe they have done enough already without doing too much. last year 40 year high in inflation to deep recession. >> other thing that happened. federal debt explodes by $1 trillion in five weeks since the deal suspending the debt limit became law. treasury department data total national debt 32.47 trillion on july 6th. 1 trillion more than the 31.47 trillion level seen last june essentially meaning with no debt ceiling in effect the borrowing jumped $350 billion in a single day. pretty stunning numbers and glazed over those numbers. >> it is so stunning, bret

tomorrow morning, i'm going to talk about all this with austan goolsbee at 11:30. >> definitely goingtune into that one stick around here for another view on the job market, let's bring in someone who has a front row seat to labor trends evan, one of the trends that caught our eye in the latest report is that applicant volume and wages remain stagnant in june, which is a good thing in the fight against inflation, right? >> absolutely. sentiment was down in the recruiter sentiment, but we saw applications, either increkrcreg 33%, receiving compensation still being the number one reason and we're seeing compensation increasing. >> what is driving that increase i ask as -- >> it's got -- it's got to be that people are looking for jobs that pay more money. we think people are worried about the recession, worried about the economy, worried about infl inflation, and worried about increasing interest rates. therefore, they're taking jobs that pay more money. we saw this before -- we saw this at the beginning of the pandemic, people having potentially two jobs, two full-time jobs and if you l

and of course, austan goolsbee is president of the reserve bank of chicago.e was speaking on television on friday and notes that inflation is coming down, but well above the fed target. he is focused on goods inflation. he says everybody should put their ion, in the immediate term, -- put their eye on goods prices. is it too high? when you look at used-car prices, they have been especially high. but that will go away, he says. is it more persistent? that is the key. he is talking about core services. housing which is something that fed chair jay powell emphasizes almost every time he talks about u.s. inflation policy. when he was at the ecb's meeting in central portugal. he is not giving imprimatur for anything yet. he says he and his colleagues are watching that data. sounds like what that officials were saying before the june meeting when they decided to pause. now the question is not so much about causing it seems, as it is so much as, should we start hiking again? jay powell said last week, if you look at the fed's economic projections from the june meeti

get a chance tomorrow in this show actually a little bit later to talk to chicago fed president austant these things i'm going to have a -- pick a fight with him and maybe just the fed idea, i think service sector hiring is good for inflation. because if you think about the only supply we have in the service sector is people supplying their service it's jobs. when you have a big surge in the service sector i think that's anti-or disinflationary. >> all right well it will be interesting to see if they're willing to go with that or at least have, you know, kind of build into the conversations we got detailed in the fed minutes yesterday. very interested to see that. we'll talk to you soon let's continue this conversation with jpmorgan's chief u.s. economist mike fer rowly you heard the litany of hot numbers in the latest batch. we've gotten, you know, the relatively hawkish fed speak are we in a re-acceleration of this economy or just a pazzing phase? >> i think it's really hard to say because there's a lot of flingtsing signals out of the -- conflicting signals out of the economy right

tomorrow, austan goolsbee on 11:30 a.m., we'll talk about all this stuff with him in addition to thelse >> sure. >> we're going to talk to -- >> not threads i don't do anything like that. >> we'll talk about the financials bank of america and citi came out and said the results they ran of their internal stress test are different than what the fed found. bank of america said they had a bigger loss than the fed's results showed >> wow. >> which is a little weird but what would explain that? the differences here >> i don't know. they should all be running the same model and the fed be judging the model. that's something i have to report. >> it is weird just strange to hear the second and fourth largest banks saying they differ with a stress test result. >> and they had worse results than the fed came up with. >> which is also weird. >> my hope is they have stress for actual scenarios like their failure not to do it last time, which was the rise of interest rates. >> thanks, steve. >> pleasure. >> pleasure. pleasure pleasure was ours. >> i don't know, i enjoyed it. >> we did too. >>> we

more than austan goolsbee. has been more on the encz but raphael bostic has been more definitive. that comes at 1:00 p.m.. just wait, there is more. cleveland fed president loretta mester around 4:00. tom: do the others know what the numbers are? neel kashkari will be like, dang, i have to rip up my speech. jonathan: have you seen this? i caught up with him earlier this week. there he is. nice cabin. with fire. just beautiful. lisa a: love it. jonathan: what am i doing here? tom: i guess ♪ he would rather be in colorado ♪ it is about a british land on wall street who is wasted on park avenue and the british l ad on wall street would say ♪ i guess would rather be in colorado ♪. jonathan: we are live. your today, the nasdaq is up more than 30%. look at this line from morgan stanley. the air market is not done yet. dan scally, in case like this. you guys are saying the bear market is not done yet. tell us why. dan: the market today has been incredibly stronger. stronger than we did. we are still in an environment

which he should be, you know, i know there's a couple of doves in voting members, you know, maybe austanand seems to acknowledge it. it really was very, very encouraging and another reason and you're right that i shifted a bit of my opinion is i'm looking at forward looking indicators the money supply has stopped going down commodity prices have stopped going down housing prices measured by the index and the federal indexes have stopped going down. they've turned around and stabilized so those very high rates that scared me and the market earlier on in the year don't seem to be having as much of a negative effect as i had feared and that combined with the fact that powell now is saying, you know, i'm going to look at both sides of the equation, i think that's very positive for the markets. >> pretty amazing, jeremy, and thinking back on all the conversations we had when you wanted the fed really to not go any further, i mean, there was a pause. there were small increments, not 75 basis points anymore. so there was a pretty sharp, certainly the second derivative slowed and you wanted mayb