austan: i mean the dual mandate comes to us by law. the law says the primary things we have to look at our inflation and the job market and are we maximizing employment? those are the big two kahunas going forward. it is still an economy with cross currents where you have some things that remain quite strong by historical terms and other things that have deteriorated. if you look at credit card delinquencies or small business defaults, those have been rising. and they have moved into what i call warning sign stage. so i am going to be looking at what chair powell calls the totality of the data, not just the monthly the inflation and jobs reports, but the pce inflation and jobs reports are the big two by law. sonali: we do have to leave it there and i wish we had more time. that is michael mckee and austan goolsbee off of the heels of a highly watched and surprising jobs report. we thank you for your time. up next we will talk to kay harrah of jp morgan and steve brown to react to these comments. that is. this is bloomberg. ♪ (♪♪) (♪♪)

austan goolsbee in just a moment.e than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot. max makes construction faster, safer and more cost effective than ever before. and with max doing the heavy lifting, even more people can join the team. solar energy is changing the world, aes is changing the world of solar. >>> forgot. olympics are still -- >> still going. going strong. carl quintanilla is there. >> came back just in time. welcomeback to "squawk box." futures right now. okay. called four digits now. quad quadruple-digit loss now. since we saw a loss in the dow, nasdaq, not far from that. on a percentage basis you can see much worse. >> the nasdaq. >> then the vix now 56. 56. so tom lee was saying when you see the vix start moderating, maybe that's when the bottom comes in. so far that is not what we're seeing, because we were at 49 when he was saying that. >> meantime, big bank stocks slammed in the markets. sell-off right now. and large-cap ana

vaporize sore throat pain. >>> we go now to austan gool >>> we go now to austan go goolsbee.e taking on the apolitical role he had previously served in the obama administration. good morning to you. >> hi. great to see you again, margaret. >> president goolsbee, barons had a piece yesterday saying the most consequential event this fall won't be the u.s. election, it won't being a war in the middle east, it will be the federal reserve's decision in september to lower interest rates for the first time in more than four years. is that a certainty? do you think it is time to lower rates? >> i don't think it's a certainty and i don't like, as you know, tieing our hands ahead of time when we have a lot of data coming in and everyone on the committee is going to speak their peace. it's a committee decision. we try, as the fed, to make clear what our reaction function is, if you want to call it that. i invite everybody to go read the statement of economic projections, which in our world colloquially we call the dot plot where we outline every quarter what do the members of the commit

austan goolsbee explained his perspective a little bit earlier. austan: i have been saying for months that what we wanted to see was improvement on inflation and components like housing and services. we have been seeing that. the longer we were restrictive we will have to start thinking about the appointment side of the mandate. sonali: now bringing in daniel pauly, assistant portfolio manager with oaktree and marlboro comanager james abbvie. you take a look at the jobs data and two words permeated the market, wrote scare. danielle, when you think about the risk to the credit market do you get concerned? danielle: thank you and great to be here with you. we recently published our second quarter performing credit outlook peace and titled it the dual economy owing to the risks we see in a bifurcated economy and i will try to explain it as a tale of two consumers. you have the wealthy that have seen their asset base is row with soaring stock prices that we have seen, a recognized of billion -- a record number of billionaires and that has driven up pr

meanwhile, chicago fed president austan goolsbee says it is not a guarantee the fed lowers this fall.> i don't see tying our hands ahead of time when we got a lot of data coming in and everyone on the committee is going to speak their peace and it is a committee decision. >> goolsbee and daly's comments coming ahead of the fed's jackson hole summit later this week. contes contessa. >> bertha, thank you. >>> goldman sachs is lowering the odds the u.s. will slip into recession next year to 20% from 25%. goldman raised the forecast earlier this month after unemployment jumped to the three-year high in july. in a note in weekend, chief u.s. economist says goldman changed its stance mainly because of the economic data in august, cpi and jobless claims, showed no sign of down turn. if the august jobs report is good, he would cut recession odds further. joining me now is robert teater. robert, great to see you. do you concur with jan? >> i do. we have been of the mind that the economy is headed back to long-term 2% growth rate. we see continued gains in payroll. we are adding to payroll. eve

as some was a loyalist to austan prime minister shaken. so you know, he was appointed to head the supreme court in 2023. he's downfall big down when he called the meeting of the countries hi called. i'm a supreme court judges to discuss working with the new government. but students say they won't tolerate any connection between the 2 disarray and shake has seen as a why me lead. the hoping the newly formed entering government headed by my how many units will help them establish, do you disagree? the operates without any influence from politicians or the off. all right. is mass protests of taking place in serbia with tens of thousands of people opposing renewed plans for a massive lithium mine, environmental groups, fear excavation, will cause major environmental destruction, government officials. the protests were politically motivated and designed to bring down the president alexander of the judge and his government mess policies billed to the is capital the 10s of thousands opposing plans for your law just lucy, a mine don't know. so we'

joumanna: that was chicago fed president austan goolsbee speaking to bloomberg at jackson hole.ll be speaking with the fed's later today. catch that exclusive interview at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. now some of the other stories making use. new boeing ceo kelly ortberg faces questions over the starliner program after nasa turns to spacex to return astronauts stuck on the international space station. nasa announced the decision after weeks of testing of boeings faulty spacecraft, the latest blow in the latest blow in a year that included a kevin blowout, federal investigations and an executive shakeup. china will bring up issues related to taiwan during the u.s. national security advisor jake sullivan's visit to the region this week, he will meet with xi jinping as the two political leaders look to maintain dialogue. beijing will bring up export controls as well as u.s. measures to cut off china from vital technology including semiconductors. u.s. vice president kamala harris' campaign says they raised 82 million dollars during the democratic national convention in chicago last week, p

our steve liesman speaks to reafial bostic and a conversation with austan goolgsbgo goolsbee coming up. we are back in just a moment. tamra, izzy and emma... no one puts more love into logistics than these three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. >>> all right. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time now for a quick look at futures. s&p up 25 points and the dow looks like it will open up 137 points higher and the nasdaq up .75% as well. a look at s&p 500 gainers in the pre-market. ross stores up 5.5% following earnings. verisign is up by 2% and now it's time for the morning call. piper sandler upgrades its outlook on chewy. j.p. upgrading its rating on washy parker. saying the top and bottom lines the next two years are too low given early signs the consumers will be upgrading their eyeglasses and jpmorgan downgrades peloton down to neutral. growth remains challengin and visibility is limited. >>> the yen is rising today ahead of the bank of general signals the

i want to get austan on the show. hopefully we'll get him on soon.ident interesting debates over the last 15 years maybe. >> right. charles: he said something else. someone sent me the text, they would fix the markets so to speak. to your point, they have unofficial third mandate. so you've got inflation, labor and also make sure the stock market doesn't go to hell in a handbasket. that is a little bit too much. >> why not just stay the heck away from the markets? i think what government, all of government has to realize we're the driving force behind the economy, not them. and they just keep getting in the way. they're the headwinds, not the tailwinds. i got to just again, it scares the heck out of me when they tell me about what they may or may not do and what they can control. again, and i say this all the time on my radio show. it is 160 million of us going to work every day trying to do better for ours and families driving the bus, not them. one man with the ability to print nine trillion dollars, the most important financial man on earth, the m

i had austan goolsbee on with us, the chicago fed president, who says that we don't look at the markets, that's not an important matter. but i know that's gotta be wrong, it's like me when i lie, i wasn't looking in the refrigerator. of course you were, neil, because all the food's missing. [laughter] i never understand that. as long as i've covered the ferkd you know they're looking at the markets. >> absolutely. neil: they can't not be. what do you think? >> yes. i agree. neil: so what a because do it mean if they're saying now this whip i sawing, they're not going to be bullied by that, which i think was his underlying message? we know that the bank of japan was trying to calm the markets down by saying this rate a hike might be a one and done thing. i'm overstating it, but obviously concerned about the market reaction that got. so, clearly, the markets are going to be dictate thing a lot of what central banks are going to do one way or the other, right in. >> absolutely. and while goolsbee may say what he said, he said it almost to the minute when the deputy governor of the bank of

we heard from austan goolsbee a month or so ago talking about how they do not want to risk the goldenath where inflation is kept under control or they are curbing that. and they do not want a spike in unemployment. so this is the path that they are treading. and yes there is a fair amount of uncertainty moving forward. if i had to pick based on the comments that we have been getting, i would think that they would be more likely front end load cuts rather than space them out. that is in contrast to previous policy. sonali: how much of that is predicated by the job market. in addition to inflation data coming up two weeks from today we have the next jobs report. the revisions were significant. some of the largest we have ever seen to prior jobs data. does that tell you that the job market was much weaker than expected and how does that inform how you read the next set of data? karissa: that is exactly right. another thing i am thinking about, this fed has access to more timely and accurate data. when you get revisions to that degree you are right. decisions remain based on the accuracy

fed said jay powell said effectively we're going to cut in september and the only pushback to run, austan goolsbee was on the network this morning and if someone at the fed of seniority wanted to say something to the market it's not that hard to get in touch with austan goolsbee. >> august 23rd. >> sure. >> that's probably when he's going to say something. he's not going to come out beforehand. >> to dan's point go on cnbc today. e at was on that was going to be unwound over this weekend into this morning. i can assure that is the case. in that environment, the federal reserve, if it is taken by surprise by a market related event, does have some requirement to be at least vigilant and examine and explore what's going on to make sure it doesn't represent unknown risk that is just now presenting. >> the s&p down and change percentage, the equal weight down 2, 2.25. >> as it should be. >> and right now only two sectors under performing the index. tech and discretionary, tesla and amazon. so it's not as if there's this huge broad-based dislocation the fed needs to step in to ameliorate. it's

be right back with kentucky governor andy beshear, the head of the chicago federal reserve bank, austanmilligram. stay with us. ♪♪ the best summer plans come from the back seat. let's go camping! i want to see a dinosaur! let's rescue a puppy... a real one. let's go on a big family road trip! volvo plug-in hybrids. short trips on electric, longer trips on gas. mom, can we drive until we see the stars? the volvo xc60 and xc90 plug-in hybrid. visit your local volvo retailer to explore plug-in hybrid vehicles during the summer safely savings event. ♪ >>> hello and thanks for staying up

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steve liesman caught up with austan goolsbee and joins us with more. mr.the opportunity this morning, steve, to sort of knock a bit of volatility out of this market, and it didn't quite work. >> interesting you say that, melissa. the first thing i'm going to tell you, he did not, austan goolsbee, on squawk this morning wouldn't take anything off the table. here's what he said when i asked about the possibility of an emergency rate cut which would come become meetings. >> the fed's job is very straightforward. maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. that's what we're going to do. we're forward looking about it. and so if the conditions collectively start coming in on the through line, there's deterioration on any of those parts, we're going to fix it. >> didn't say there would be or wouldn't be one. markets trading like a one in three chance of an intermeeting cut but priced in definitively an aggressive path for the federal reserve in the months ahead. take a look. 150 basis points are priced in through january. 50 in septem

there are many who feel, region is closer to hour zero israel's defense minister spoke with lloyd austandays discussed israel preparedness readiness among middle east, iran is conducting training issued notice to airmen they could be moving forward this week's hezbollah fired 30 katyusha rockets in northern israel could hear explosions the iron to come may have been in response to israeli strike in lebanon port 70, that reportedly killed two hezbollah operatives, the negotiators set to meet regarding a possible cease-fire between israel and hamas that is largely seen asoff ramp for the region if the successful. cheryl: trey yingst thank you for that live report from haifa we appreciate it. resorts say they think they could be better financial shape under former president trump than harris a new "financial times" poll finds 42% think better off a financially if trump wins november 33% think better under hairs this "new york times" siena college poll finds harris has trump in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. a blue survey finds trump harris tied in nourishingr ninth circuitr north caroli

we are getting clashes from austan goolsbee. in that interview he is saying it is not a secret that policymakers expect multiple cuts over the next year and if we stay restricted for too long, we have to look at an employment mandate. >> they probably did, they have a lot of regret but in their little channel, some people are saying i told you so, and the focus has to be, where do they do in september and the rest of the year and i would say like many of your recent guests, it's a real distress call for the labor market and fed chair powell was clear he doesn't want to see the labor market get worse, and we saw that. neil: and is it possible, and if so, why didn't he sees on that? >> usually the fed chair and members of the white house staff, the council of economic advisers see the employment numbers but they only get that on thursday evening and jay powell did his press conference wednesday. some of the data the last few days and the june jobs are report starts to flash these warnings but they don't see what we saw, they would

side of things, chicago fed president austan goolsbee is raising a red flag on the economy.e tells bloomberg news he is more concerned about the labor market than inflation. following progress on prices and disappointing jobs data, goolsbee says current interest rates are quote/unquote rerestrictive. a few that only would be appropriate if the economy is overheating. he did not comment on the likelihood or size of the interest rate cut at the next fed meeting in september traders are pricing in a 37% chance of a 50-basis point or .50% rate cut that was down from a 55% chance a week ago joining me now is the ceo and vice chairman. kalaua, this is interesting as they have change even off the volatility we saw a week and a half ago can we expect this volatility to continue given some of the mixed signals and the economy and from polic policymakers >> aloha from hawaii, dom. so good to be here we are forecasting continued volatility unfort unfortunately, i don't think we have seen the last of it a lot of that is contributed to a couple of things one is the consumer and data behi

light of the three-day stock slide, we have senior fed officials, including chicago fed president austanlsbee and san francisco fed president mary daly calling for calm. reassuring investors that the fed will act when appropriate. goolsbee speaking with cnbc early yesterday with daly adding her comments last night. >> if the conditions come in on the through line, there's deterioration on any of those parts, on we're going to fix it. that's the chicago motto. there's not bad weather. there's only bad clothing. we'll respond as appropriate. >> my message to you is as we have been doing, the federal reserve and fmoc is prepared to do what the economy needs when we are clear what that is. there's many more pieces of information that come out between now and when we next meet. >> so, what folks think they will do? the bet is they will cut 50 basis points next month have soared. now standing at 73%. that's compared to just 13% one week ago. >>> crowdstrike's legal issues are far from over after the global outage on top of delta's airline challenge. the furthirm now facing first c action suit

september cut as fed officials should be mindful of the double mandate this after his chicago peer austanoolsbee. let's unpack this with the head of economic research at st. james' place here in london. thanks for being here. first of all, disinflation in the u.s. helping to bring relief for markets. i think we can say the same globally there are still a number of risks out there. what are you watching out there? >> we have been saying for a long time, but services inflation is a key thing for the bank of england and the fed. it is still way above target at more than double that has to continue coming down when you look at super core inflation which has become a popular measure, that has started to drift lower again on a more dynamic basis, the three-year annualized. that is definitely good news the labor market and wage growth and all of these things are really important to keep an eye on. >> walk me through your expectations when it comes to what the fed does in september i mentioned this week comments and commentary of a 50-basis point move this year those bets have been trimmed with t

austan goolsbee has been on message, but that message has been getting louder. he had an interview overnight where he said, "it feels like, on the margin, i'm getting more concerned about the employment side of the mandate." how much are we seeing that momentum increasing with fed officials calling and preparing for september rate cuts? dani: the tone has shifted over the past 24 hours. from officials saying the risk is cutting too soon, and now they are saying the risk is not cutting soon enough. i think we have to talk about caustic, because he sounded different than he did just -- bostic, because he sounded different than he did just 24 hours ago. he sounded different yesterday. lisa: two days ago in the wall street journal he said he wanted to see more data to be sure inflation is coming down. it would be really bad if we started cutting rates and we had to turn around and raise them again. i'm willing to wait, but it is coming. two days later, he is open to an interest rate cut. the central bank cannot afford to be late. annmarie, now that inflation is comi

and chicago fed president austan goolsbee did not rule out a cut.isten. >> the fed's job is very straight forward. maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. that's what we're going to do. we're forward looking about it. so, if the conditions collectively come in on the through line, there is deterioration on those parts, we will fix it. >> we have neal wilson of ejf capital with us. neal, thank you so much for being here. look, just begin by giving us context here. how do you explain monday's market meltdown and the tepid recovery across asia and into the european trading day. good morning, sir. >> good morning. thank you very much for having me on. i think you have to look at it as immediate cause and underlining cause. the immediate cause was the yen carry trade and the manufacturing issue with berkshire selling apple. the underlining cause is more important to focus on. they really, in my view, and i have been saying this the last two or three months, the fed has really kept rates for too high for too long and they'r

and then we have chicago's au austan goolsbee in the afternoon. >> a very different tone than a coupleweeks ago when we got a bad payroll number and jobless claims ups, and going back to the theme of jackson hole, the whole idea is for central bankers to explore why the massive rate cuts over the past years haven't had a bigger effect on the economy. i think that's going to be quite a pertinent question for discussion. >> yeah, i think you hit the nail on the head there. it's one of the topics of the symposium is monetary policy transmission. so that's going to be something they're looking into. interesting conversation with harker this morning about the effect on housing, and he talked about the idea that if you do into a rate hiking cycle with a housing supply deficit, he suggests you end up making the problem worse, the inflation problem worse. so if the fed reduces rates, you could bring down housing inflation. that's just one of the issues out there. also, the connection of fiscal monetary policy is something that likely will explore. so a lot of stuff on the table about how all o

neil: austan goolsbee is among those voting members of the federal reserve who will influence interestmove on monday when we were in a panic freefall when the dow fell more than 1,000 points that the fed had to move fast and big and the sooner the better. that dissipated somewhat by the end of the week. i wonder how kevin o'leary feels about where we are right now, o'leary ventures chairman, shark tank investor. really is a brilliant guy and has a great perspective on the world. kevin, great to see you again. >> thank you very much. neil: you know, this was a scary week for the markets. you'd never know the way they ended up. you'd almost think nothing happened, essentially unchanged. but on monday in response to a jobs report that had some people thinking we were going into a meltdown. were you, are you in that camp? >> no. i -- you're right, it was monday around 111:15 when the rumor flashed through institutional trading desks that the fed was going to have an emergency meeting. that's bad. that that's never a good signal. and the idea was to take it down by 50 basie points. it was a

chicago fed president austan goolsbee said he had concerns about the job market and consumer but waserally upbeat on the economy. >> i do have concerns, there are concern warning lights from parts of the job market, and the consumer with small business defaults on the other hand, we also have wide pockets of strength in the economy. so i'm hopeful that a year from now, we're still chugging along. >> you know, dom, i've been doing this for a lot of years. you get kind of accustomed to a fed chair that kind of hedges his or her bets. but i think we ought to get used to a powell chairmanship where he says what he means and means what he says, and says it very decla declaratively. that's what we got if he didn't mean to say it, he would haven't said it at all >> interesting again, it's not that when powell hasn't spoken in the past that there has not been volatility. there hasn't been as much of it today. how much of that just speaks to the idea that the markets are pretty much in tune with the fed, the fed with the markets, and this is pretty much an all-clear stein regardless of the na

we'll hear from the atlanta fed president raphael bostic and the atlanta fed president austan goolsbeecheck out cnbc.com. >>> mark schneider steps down 'lha me teth. of nestle. wel veorafr is >>> welcome back. nestle's incoming ceo says his major goal will be market share as the company looks to regain momentium following several xwaurters of lack lusters stairs. the new stays will take over from mark schneider who has been at the helm of the year. do we expect a strategy shift? >> it is likely. the board is not happy with the performance of nestle in recent times. therefore, they are trying to have some sort of change here in their business outlook. however, i just would like to point out that mark schneider has been in the company, leading the company for eight years, and the announcement that we received yesterday was very sudden so it took investors by surprise. no one saw this coming, particularly because mark schneider had also signaled recently that he was committed in the long run as well to remain the ceo of nestle, so a sudden change here, and that's clearly not bringing any

we herald from mary daly and austin austan goolsbee yesterday.the job market slow so much that it actually tips into a downturn, but there's going to be a lot more economic data before september to consider. goolsbee underscored, look, the stock market is not the economy. you can take cues if the market is indicating a long-term desell ration in growth, and he did admit if all the data is pointing negative, the fed will, quote, fix it. not all the data is negative. the jobs report absolutely was worse than expected, but we did have the ism services pmi showed that the services is expanding, and you can see that reflected in the market. the u.s. indexes are kind of all over the place this morning. zoom out globally though, we saw a rebound, the nikkei soared 10% after the worst day since '87 yesterday. but you can't ignore the broader picture. we're cocking off more than a -- coming off more than a 5% dip in the dow, so it's still too early to determine if in the the markets indicating this is recession territory or we're just hitting a correction

. >> we heard from austan goolsbee today like he read the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy that says don't panic. he said this is just normalization and that we won't read into one data point, which just says this doesn't seem like a fed going into this situation room trying to figure out how they can stall the bleeding. i don't think they're looking at the 114,000 saying this is something we need to panic about. if they did, it would probably be a bigger problem, 114 goes to 50 to zero and negative in payrolls a big problem for gdp and growth. >> we're showing all these stocks, cameron, i get amazon, they had weaker consumer numbers, intel, we'll do more on that in a couple minutes, but, you know, micron is down. they make d-ram. it's a commodity product. like people are going to buy computers, things with d-ram. micron is down 10%. prudential financial on the bond move down 10%. feels like everyone just kind of dumping everything and take the weekend reconsider what they want to rebuy. >> consider the starting point how overbought things were. the aspect the bigger they are the har

chicago fed president austan goolsbee said on cnbc said he was concerned about the consumer job marketas upbeat on the outlook. >> i do have concerns. there are concern warning lights from parts of the job market and the consumer delinquencies and business defaults. on the other hand, we also have wide pockets of strength in the economy, so i'm hopeful that a year from now we're still chugging along. >> reporter: but market reactions suggest that powell more dovish, direct and definitive than markets maybe expected, but there's still data to come before the september meeting, and differences on the fed's committee about how far to go and how figurely to go and how to get there. steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> gold prices end higher about their 2,500 an ounce as fed chair powell jay powell confirm expectations of a september rate cut, escalating tensions in the middle east between lebanon also stand to further boost the safe heche as the. that's according to our next guest as we see gold trading at $2,25.23 u.s. an ounce. great to have you here tom. >> thanks for having me. >> le

charles: yesterday, austan goolsbee said the fed would come to rescue.s own no bad weather, only bad clothing no matter what. you have a feeling this comment won't age well. what is this complex that they have? really amazing to me because i think the fed has too many hats, has too much power and yet he sounds confident that they can cure all that ails us? >> yeah. the fed screws up over and over. originally promised it was going to protect the dollar and it was going to end recessions once and for all. since then we've had 20 recessions, one every five years like clockwork. the dollar of course, we had 125 years of no inflation in this country before the fed. since then the dollar has lost what, 97, 98%. i v in idea where goolsbee gets this confidence from but the fed turning everything it touches into garbage. betting odds it will do it again. charles: yeah. i'm in there with you, my friend. let me know what odds are. i will put a few bucks on it while i can. peter, thank you very much. appreciate it. "american dynasty" is out with a new episode on "fo

. >> austan goolsbee. one of the best in the business that explaining this stuff, the normal people always appreciate your time, my friend. thank you. >> great to see you again so can donald trump really bring down gas prices can come on harris really do anything to slow inflation. >> two different takes on the proposals presented by the candidates. but first a live look inside the venue for next week's democratic national convention. yes, it's in chicago. jake tapper will help lead special coverage starting monday night at seven right here on cnn. we're back in a moment shoes, advil liquid gels for faster, stronger, and longer lasting relief, than tylenol, rapid release jails because advil targets pain at the source of inflammation. >> so for faster pain relief, advil, the pain away. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire a new indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match, instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description visited he.com slash high

i think it's important that chicago fed president has already come out austan goolsbee pointing out that the fed has room to cut rates right now, anything that race it's her actually restrictive. that's important. it doesn't mean will necessarily get an intermediate move. but i think the financial markets do have it right? that the fed now finds itself in the worst case scenario for the moment. and that is that they've overtime did this stage of the game. they can undo that without us fallen clean fully into a recession, even know technically, we saw the somme rural triggered without unemployment rate increase in the month of july yeah. >> diamine, the fed was reluctant to do an interest rate cut the last time around because of inflation concerns. and the talk was perhaps the fed was aiming for a soft landing. now, it looks like it could be a hard landing. we just don't know. as you said, a few moments ago, there's a lot of uncertainty. is it possible? for the fed could decide to do an emergency rate cut to do some sort of emergency room type procedure here they could. >> and that is pos

but, you know, i was talking to austan goolsbee, the chicago fed president a couple of weeks ago said there's a reason to be concerned, or at least more cognizant on the employment side. right now, are you in that space as well that perhaps rates have been too high for too long. and we're at a kind of a risk on the employment side i think if you look at some of the really up-to-date indicators on the job market. >> and certainly the most prevalent one would be unemployment insurance claims. >> they've been very well behaved they've been coming in just about where you'd want to see them for a sustained job market. >> now, of course, my old friend and he used to have the same job i do austin is correct that the job market has cooled, but some of that is just getting back to a normalization which is where you actually hear from fed officials about the economy, just getting the economy back from its breakneck pace out of the pandemic induced recession and so as long as we have the kinds of consumer spending that we're talking about, this morning. and we really haven't seen layoffs. that's

let's listen to what the chicago federal reserve president austan goolsbee, had to say when asked what emergency actions the fed could take, let's listen to this everything is always on the table whether that's increases, cuts, et cetera. but the fed's job is very straightforward maximize employment, stabilized prices, and maintain financial stability that's what we're gonna do. we're forward looking about it. and so if the conditions collectively start coming in, that on the through line there's deterioration on any of those parts we're going to fix it yeah. >> mark your reaction to that well, he's got it exactly right. >> the fed's got two key goals. one is for employment, the other is inflation. low and stable. and david cheap those targets. in fact, i think given friday's jobs numbers in the 4.3 we percent of unemployment rate, you could argue that they blown through full employment, put that at something less than 4%. so they're there and now they have funds rate target that's the key interest rate they control. that's very high and five-and-a-half percent has been there for a yea

austan goolsbee, who is president of the federal reserve bank of chicago. he said the following to push back against this idea, some are floating of an emergency federal federal reserve cut prior to their meeting in september, he said, we've got to be monitoring the real side of the economy. there's nothing in the fed's mandate that's about making sure the stock market is comfortable. i look at that richard quest and i think i see them saying let the market go through it, stuff will focus on the economy he's talking about what used to be called the greenspan, put their for the fed. >> but where basically greenspan bernanke, even yellen to an extent, bailed out the market, but here is where it differs. goolsbee saying, look on its own, we're not going to bail out investors where he will change his mind very quickly is if it starts to become a downward spiral feeding into the economy, okay. >> we'll be watching for it. richard catherine, great to have you on. thanks so much. coming up parts of the southeast in a state of emergency now, is debbie unleashes rec

annmarie: austan goolsbee was asked about this and he said that before the politics, it makes him uncomfortableessence feels political. lisa: which is kind of the discussion some people are having. we will continue to have a conversation tonight with the fed over on the conversation on x formerly known as twitter. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ why do couples choose a sleep number smart bed? i need it a little cool and i need it a lot of cool. we're both cool like that. sleep number does that. actively cools and warms on each side. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed and free delivery when you add any base. >> futures higher after a commotion was weak. 30 minutes until the start of trading. i am matt miller. sonali: i am sonali basak. katie greifeld is off today as we start "bloomberg open interest." matt: looks like stocks kick off this week calmer as investors await key data which will shed light on the health of the u.s. economy and inflation and help us design and outlook. meanwhile, inflation still bases up

eastern and then one hour later, patrick harker will speak with bloomberg, followed by austan goolsbeethursday, jobless claims, friday, core pce and consumer sentiment data. chair powell speaking in over one hour from now. bloomberg's tom keene and lisa abramowicz join us. it looks as beautiful as ever, is t.k. behaving? lisa: always behaving. maybe. tom: i tried to be on good behavior. very importantly, there were only three spiders in my cabin last night. lisa: we are good to go. tom: i looked under the bed for snakes. lisa: today will be about defining gradual, it does not mean 50 basis points or 25 basis point , but forest fires are making it a little less clear maybe that is a signal of the lack of clarity on the soft landing. tom: we have got to get to september 6 and the jobs report because there's no way chairman powell will front run and be embarrassed by the september 6 report because they were somewhat embarrassed or adjusted by 800,000 jobs revision, so i look forward for pretty much a straight arrow speech and not surprises. lisa: we shall see, and we will see if we see di

. >>> chicago fed president austan goolsbee is raising a red flag on the economy telling bloomberg he is concerned about the labor market -- i don't know we call it a red flag. he is following prices and d disappointing jobs data. a view that is appropriate if the economy were overheating he not comment on the size of the rate cut in september. traders are pricing in a 37% chance down from a 55% chance a week ago more dovish on things. >> quicker to pivot. >>> shares of cisco are higher revenue also came in higher than the street was expecting sales fell for the third straight quarter the company expects one more quarter of revenue declines as customers take time to set up equipment they received in previous quarters. one bright spot, the $28 billion acquisition of splunk. cisco announced a restructuring plan to cut 7% of the global workforce. ceo chuck robbins will be on "squawk on the street" at 9:30 a.m. today >>> meantime, we are learning the details of the pay package that enticed brian niccol to leave chipotle it will pay him $1.6 million annually and incentives to add more than

friday, saying to normalize policy you have to bring rates down consistently and we heard that from austanlsbee and neel kashkari. to me that is what is interesting about the fact the bond market -- stocks have been whoop whoop because it is responding to the soft landing hard landing whipsaw. jonathan: what have stocks been doing? lisa: whoop whoop. jonathan: i missed you. i want to talk about dollar-yen. a lot of japanese yen strength. if this was two weeks ago and we had a move like this on dollar-yen i think we would have a very different picture in the stock market. lisa: people are looking for some sort of explanation from japanese authorities on why they hiked and what you have going forward. much to the show how much we have unwound the carry trade? hedge funds are going long so this is not disruptive the way it was in the past. it raises the question of how much was last week the healthy washout that allows the market to rally further. are the excesses baked in? jonathan: breaking the connection between what is happening in the japanese yen and what is not happening in the equity

i will say earlier this morning we heard from austan goolsbee on npr talking about how the economy isg and if the economy and you see the employment turn quickly, it can go to this question of whether the fed should act preemptively. >> employment it's like the hold underwater that once you let go kind of shoots up higher. people keep looking at all these different signals over session saying they need to act preemptively because we see things like labor market weakness. let the yield curve starting to on invert. and therefore the fed needs to act. part of the problem is. i think it's a really good point there've only been nine recession since the 1990's. that's not enough data to have statistical significance in what usually happens into a recession so using these past indicators but i think we can say this time might be different because it is always different. we haven't had this updated. >> to say her particular eponymous rule is important to consider but not actually rule. right now let's get to an update on stories this morning. >> israel has begun talks with international media

chicago fed president austan goolsbee says there's no guarantee the fed will lower rates this fall. >it's a certainty and i don't like, as you know, tying our hands ahead of time when we have a lot of data to come in and everyone on the committee's going to get to speak theirpeace. it's a economy decision. >> meantime, neel kashkari says he is open to cutting rates at the fmoc meeting. in june, he said a cut might not be warranted until the end of the year. kashkari said on friday that the conversation has shifted because of the rising chance of the labor market weakens too much. that is all ahead of what jay powell has to say on friday. joining us now is stephanie link, portfolio manager at hightower advisers. steph, good morning. >> good morning. >> i mentioned we had the near round trip, not quite in the s&p 500, but over the course of the last month plus, obviously, some things got shaken loose and maybe some new themes emerge. what is your current read when you believe this recovery or has the leadership of the market changed in the last few weeks? >> well, i think a lot of the r

and austan goolsbee in the afternoon on "halftime." >> am i wrong to think that goolsbee has become,is just because of my sleeping with the lights on bent or because he has been a little bit sort of ahead on this disinflationary but soft landing narrative. i don't know. who do you think is the best barometer? does it matter because we're going to hear from the chair himself? sometimes the other officials help you hear what's really going on, if that makes sense. >> you know, kelly, that's a really astute observation. and it is different in different regimes, right? sometimes it is another guy, waller was early on some of the other changes here. when you followed him. and i think goolsbee has been ahead, with this notion, which is very important, that right now i believe he would say the fed is the tightest it has been since the tightening process began and, of course, he means on a real rate basis. if you take the fed funds rate, and you subtract inflation, the fed is tighter than it has been since the whole process began and that has been a consistent argument from him for why the f

dani: austan goolsbee saying we need to see more evidence of a labor market slowing down.speak need to change tone? jonathan: the disco year is now 20 basis points lower which is why out. 3.69 on the front end of the curve. the calls on the federal reserve have been wild as well. traders have been boosting the odds for an emergency fed rate cut within one week. friday's disappointing payroll print continuing to rally treasuries on fears the fed is behind the curve. joining us is andrew hollenhorst and stephen stanley. andrew, you are out with a big call in friday, 50 basis points in september. goldman sticking with 25. why are they wrong? why is now the right time to make the call? why are you convinced with fridays data? andrew: we came out with a call in september -- that was just after the jobs report. the p think is not that the employment rate rose to 4.3%, it is we now have four consecutive months were the unemployment rate rises and accelerates. if the fed is trying to get a soft landing you have a lot of momentum upwards and the unemployment rate you need to stop.

friday we will round out the week with chicago fed president austan goolsbee.o fed president charles evans. as we march through what we got today with ppi and look ahead to cpi. this was bloomberg surveillance. ♪ why do couples choose a sleep number smart bed? i need it a little cool and i need it a lot of cool. we're both cool like that. sleep number does that. actively cools and warms on each side. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed and free delivery when you add any base. ♪♪ relax into a caribbean state of mind. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals. matt: futures are higher. i am matt miller. katie: "bloomberg open interest" starts right now. ♪ sonali: coming up, an abrupt shakeup at starbucks, surging after naming brian nickel is a new ceo and chairman. matt: u.s. producer prices in july rose by less than forecast, underscoring the moderation and inflationary pressures. katie: mike wilson warns of a challenging road ahead for stocks. he joins

mary daly and austan goolsbee yesterday saying it is one data point and we do not react of one data pointrisk between inflation and unemployment. once they have their head around that maybe they can get to 50 basis points but they sound far from it. jonathan: they are the doves the committee. the doves on the fomc right now are not screaming let's go 50. i think the sentiment from morgan stanley is revealing. they believe it is 25 unless we get a sub 100,000 print in the august jobs report. that is latest on the bond market. i want to go to foreign-exchange briefly and give you a sneak peek at the fx market. what you see on the screen is a weaker japanese yen. dollar-yen over the previous five days, move up 6%. the biggest five-day move back to 2008. absolutely whipsawed in such a vicious fashion. dani: so may people want to know is this over, has the knife fallen? part of that centers around the carry trade. you have this big unwind to the carry trade and all of these consequences. those trying to pin down how much further bigo, it is tough -- a much further we go, it is tough. even if y

on friday, round out the week with housing starts, sentiment and more fed speak from austan goolsbee.t much more clarity but at least hasn't seemed to derail the fed from cutting rates. what is your take away from what we saw today? >> that we met so far on this bond market the jp morgan client survey showed the most net long on treasuries since the start of the year, so we went into this decision kind of expecting something soft. we got something basically in-line, hence the market reaction. >> it sort of raises this question, how much more clarity do we actually have right now v s. before? >> i don't really away from this conversation with any clarity. david kelley saying they should be cutting and he would hope that they would go 50 basis points if that were the case, thinking of the timeline. 50 basis points going into a u.s. presidential election where people are already trying to politicize this. i have not a lot of clarity except for the fact that i think given the report year, housing costs, that is going to be a huge talking point friday when kamala harris comes out. >> i can