so just again you heard my talk, conversation with austan goolsbee.igher for longer is a whole different animal. usually the fed goes higher, breaks something, and then they start to cut rates. maybe they go higher around go flat from here. elizabeth, how are you doing? have we got you now? >> i'm hear, charles, good afternoon. charles: so you're saying okay, the fed's saying higher for longer, fine. how does someone invest in that kind of a scenario? >> yeah i think, look, we have to take the fed at face value. they were late to the game to raise rates. we're hearing this rhetoric of higher for longer. i think for us, what that means from an investment standpoint is you want to focus on short duration equities as opposed to long duration equities. what are short duration versus long duration equities? long duration equities are are companies that have no earnings, little earnings, are not generating any free cash flow, trading a lot ofty valuations. those companies are going to be hurt disproportionately, short duration equities, companies generating

we've got chicago fed president ab austan goolsbee. right back. >>> all right, welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we've been watching the futures this morning. we've been treading water, just about to flatline until the last 25 minutes, s&p futures off by 13, nasdaq off by 34. that came at the same time we saw a rise in yields for the 2-year. it was significantly higher this morning. 5.125% and the 10-year right at about 4 1/2%. >> now for a closer look at what the fed's done recently, pause central bank's future rate path and more. we knew him when he was a normal person. we did, for a long time. let's bring in -- he's huge now, he's big. he's like a -- you're not maga, you're mega. chicago fed president austan goolsbee, former chair in the obama administration. mr. president, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me back, joe. >> how is your health and how are you sleeping? it's a big job you have. i'll tell you why i'm asking. we have a lot of people on who almost describe the risk as completely symmetrical call. they sa

i read austan goolsbee today. i thought he made a very profound defense of the idea of sticking to the 2% target. basically, if you want to live like a dove, you better act or walk like a hawk, is what i heard goolsbee saying. the idea being that if you -- you need to stick to that target. he said that it was federal reserve credibility that has been a big and important role in bringing inflation down now without much pain. and if you want to avoid a recession, you better stick to that credibility, you better hold onto that 2% target. maybe we can do it later, but i don't see that as a wink, wink for not doing it now. the only thing i would say, steve, that you might be right is so far the fed has been able to stick to the 2% target without much pain. and that pain has not come yet in the unemployment rate. the government is able to sell bonds, able to service the debt. if that becomes more difficult, then there's a question about the 2% target. but we're not there yet. and i don't hear the wink, wink. >> well, i

we should listen to what austan goolsbee said this morning on "squawk box" about the current stance or his current thought about how long rates might have to stay up here. >> i've been trying to emphasize that pretty soon in here the question is going to stop being, well, how much they going to raise and it's going to transform into how long do we need to hold rates at this kind of restricted level to feel convinced that we're back on this path to 2%? and that's healthy. >> brian, that's clearly the mode they're in. you know, maybe the fed is done. maybe there's more to do. do you think the market can make its peace with that? they seem not in any hurry to try and pivot away from higher for longer even if the economy sputters. >> i do think that. again, brin talked about history. what's the ten-year average in terms of the rate over the last 50 years? 5%. again, we've reared an entire generation of invests who think stocks can only go up if rates go down. actually, no. the risk return, if you look at standard deviations in the risk return ratio, it's better when rates are higher. that

i spoke to chicago fed president austan goolsbee yesterday.l kashkari is making comments. and jpmorgan, the ceo there also chiming in from india. we'll break down the strategy with longtime fed watcher kim grant next and "squawk box" is streaming live every weekday morning exclusively on peacock as part of the morning news live collection join us every morning on the headlines, no matter whether you're at home or tonhe go, head to peacock.com/morningnews for more information on how you can start streaming. we'll be right back. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. the futures are now back down close to the lows, down almost 150 on the dow, nasdaq, and s&p pitching in, trading lower as well in the pre-market jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon speaking to cnbc in india overnight. here's what he said about whether the fed will raise rates ag again. >> i think it's more likely than not. but i think people should be prepared for higher oil and gas prices, higher rates, as a matter of just being prepared. you and i can guess what it will be, but i don't k

. >> and that is austan goolsbee's golden path, this idea that we can remain strong but inflation can come down on its own, meaning that unlike what powell warned about, which is that a period of below-trend growth would be needed to pull inflation lower, that's not what has happened yet. so, the question then going forward is, do we get that below trend growth? hardly at 4.9% on atlanta fed gdp now are there signs that it is today. that could be a scenario for 2024. we breathe a collective sigh of relief, people get complacent, they overhire, overspend, and just at that point is when you hit the full impact of interest rate hikes and that's when you would have a classical recession. >> you mentioned the consumer earlier. do you feel as though the consumer is at an inflection point? that we've almost exhausted all the stimulus that was in the system and in the bank accounts and everything else and we're about to take a turn? >> i wonder if we are underestimating just how powerful of a tailwind the movement from $5 gasoline in june of 2022 to $3 gasoline in the past couple months was f

we also hear from lori logan of dallas, patrick harker, austan goolsbee, and rafael bostick.l tell us what they thought of this job report and what they are anticipating and we get a raft of economic data from july for things like mortgages and applications, which have been an interesting indicator of the strength of the housing market and telling us which pockets of the economy are doing well and how we might avoid a recession. we will get the trade balance and be watching the bond market with eagle eyes from tuesday, don't forget monday in the united states is a holiday. >> are vonnie quinn there. the acting u.s. labor secretary says that the latest job support posted the case for a soft landing scenario. she also told us how the biden administration trust the process when it comes to managing negotiations with unions in a tight labor market. >> this is what you want to see if you're looking for a soft landing. this is if you average the last three months, it's a hundred 80,000 jobs each month being created. this is a transition from the breakneck speed of the fast recovery

chicago fed president austan goolsbee. tom harkin. on friday we hear from john williams. much do people keep buying if their overall expenses continue to climb? earnings on tuesday from cosco. wednesday h&m. thursday is nike. how much are we looking at new pressure on consumer discretionary? tom: sales of all of this is donna nominal, including michael mckee's retail sales number. i think you are dead on. this time around the retail pulse is a huge precursor to what we see getting october 13 with j.p. morgan. lisa: anecdotally we hear people pulling back. when we start to see that in the grainy only -- in the granular earnings data? why would people spend that if they are spending so much. home price data as well as the new home sales, that comes out tomorrow. i'm curious if anything is moving. jobless claims thursday. the key day of the week is friday as well as core pce data. how much do we see the economic surprise inflict upward in a u.s. seeing this quinfecta of threats, this toxic brew that may be it is getting difficult. a hexfecta, what is that? tom: six. lisa: is

. >> austan goolsbee for those at home. >> mr. president.e just announcing it is expanding internationally. next we've got an interview with mson wmpany's ceo, brian artrg,ho wants washington and the world to stand with crypto. we'll talk to brian right after the break. rich, velvety... coffee. cafe-quality... espresso. one high-pressure system... that can do both. brew to your heart's desire. ...with the l'or barista system. now brewing peet's coffee. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. coinbase ceo has been talking to washington officials. i spoke to armstrong yesterday and asked him about the event he organized called stand with crypto day. >> yeah, stand with crypto day. what this is really about is there's 52 million americans in the u.s. who have used crypto now. that's 3x as many that own an electric vehicle. many are frustrated th u.s. does not have clear rules on the books yet and it's pushing a lot of this industry offshore. i'm here in d.c. with 40 founders of other crypto companies. it's exciting to get the members of

we get austan goolsbee at 9:00 p.m. 3:30 pm, richmond fed president tom barkin with michael mckee.. jay powell talks to educators. want to hear less about his education policy, more about what he thinks about these recent moves in the market. whether he thinks things are getting unmoored or whether he is happy because this might get them to their goal sooner than expected. after the bell, earnings. tom: blackberry is still in business? lisa: it's not the same company. tom: did they have great seats at the form? the form -- the forum is not there anymore. jonathan: head of asset allocation for voya investment, barbara, good morning to you. true on stocks. what has changed for you? barbara: earlier this year we felt sentiment was oversold. we felt a big underappreciated story had been how much the u.s. is going to outperform the rest of the world. at the beginning of this year everyone was cheering for europe, was cheering for the emerging markets. we did not lean into it. we leaned into u.s. equities and had been overweight equities for the lions share of this year. in the late june