mike: austan goolsbee, thank you for joining us. the journey of the 10 year a ticket ride at disney world. thank you for joining us. austan: been a long time, great to see you. mike: austan goolsbee, the president of chicago federal reserve bank. katie: that was austan goolsbee, chicago fed president and bloomberg's own michael mckee. how are markets assessing the fed's position? we will discuss with carol schl eif. this is bloomberg. ♪ katie: believe it or not we are almost halfway through earnings season, mcdonald's and tyson foods consumer needs reporting today. for more on these markets, the cio carol joins us. let's talk first about fed speak. we heard from jerome powell over the weekend and we just heard from austan goolsbee. it was adjusting making the point that he does not want to rule out a march cut. that's the policymakers view. they don't want to lock into anything but what is the investors view about when that start is? carol: we would be in the camp -- we would never be in the cap thinking of a march cut. the fed espec

. ♪ haidi: the chicago fed president, austan goolsbee says he would like to see more favorable u.s.lation data before interest rate reductions can begin. he also said he would not rule out a potential cut in march. >> it feels like the economy has been quite strong on the growth front, you have big jobs numbers, you've got gdp numbers better than expected. at the same time, we have had inflation better than it acted, too. . in the last several months, we have really quite good inflation report right around or even below the fed's target. so if we just keep getting more data like what we have gotten, we are well on the, i believe, we should be well on the path to normalization. >> i understand you don't want to tie yourself down, but is there much of a chance of a march move? the markets think 18%, and others think that is even high. >> michael, as i sake, all we need to do is keep getting information like what we have been getting for the last seven months, where inflation on a slow basis is absolutely under control and is in the range of our fed target. stand for free keep getting

amna: that is austan goolsbee, president of the federal reserve bank of chicago.ou for joining us. pleasure to speak with you. >> my pleasure. thank you. [laughter] -- ♪ geoff: south arolina voters head to the polls tomorrow for the first official democratic primary of the year. four years ago, black voters in south carolina rescued joe biden's bid for the presidency, fueled in large by part an endorsement from congressman james clyburn. that south carolina victory put then-candidate biden on a path to the white house. i spoke with congressman clyburn earlier today about the president's standing among the democratic base, and with black americans, in particular. congressman clyburn, thanks so much for being with us. >> thanks for having me. geoff: i know you said the president enjoys strong support, but a december associated press poll found 50% of black adults say they approve a president biden, but that is compared with 86% who said the same thing back in july of 2021. what do you think accounts for that slip in support? >> well, i don't think there's been a big

more in the pipeline later in the week with austan goolsbee and michael far. thursday, u.s.l sales. friday, we get u.s. cpi data. for my final thought, a closer look at those cpi estimates. we are getting closer, according to investor expectations at least, to the 2% level. the last read we got was 3.4%. really starting to barrel down. the estimate of 2.9% is meaningfully lower than that. year-over-year, core cpi expected to come in at 3.7%. core cpi month over month coming in at .3% according to expectations. we know there is a lot of concern about a reacceleration of inflation. and we may have some interesting moves in the bond market if we don't see either meeting those expectations. or more signs of areas that might see room for issues. that does it from new york. same time, same place next week read this is "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ hey! sarah! if you had to choose would you listen to elevator music all day or deal with payroll compliance? payroll compliance, for sure. gusto automatically calculates and files my taxes for me. hold up, compliance? easi

economy could buy policymakers time before deciding to cut interest rates chicago fed president austan goolsbeee needs more favorable data before starting to cut very soon into it getting that closer to election, and then jay powell is going to get criticized for cutting interest rates, in an election year so close to election if trying to help joe biden maybe a cut we know not large maybe june after june i don't know, i am questioning it because of the politics of it. >> i am with you there. you know we know march is off the table possibly may definitely june for cut when fed tends to act too late, you nailed with it 10-year breaking out the dollar is strong again, things that have me concerned, and the fed you know cut a quarter of a point see how it goes, i was shocked powell painted himself in a corner didn't give wiggle room for march cut if data-dependent, the pce is at their desire core pce 2% let's see how cpi comes in, ppi next week, you know, i think they have to cut before it does become a political issue. maria: jay we leave it there watching all of that good to see you, sir. thank

haidi: chicago fed president austan goolsbee on the latest u.s. inflation numbers.ur next guest thanks the risk of high inflation doesn't change the base case from the fed this year. let's discuss with xi qiao, managing director at ubs. always great to have you with us. obviously we had the market reaction. maybe a bit of an overreaction if you look at the dip buying opportunistic session we had just overnight. does this change your ultimate view as to what the trajectory will be for this part of the cycle? xi: no. we're still feeling that inflation is going to come down and expecting yields to start to drop at this point i think it is really just focusing on sticking with our base case for a soft landing and maintaining our portfolios invested at this point. haidi: so there is no valuation risk when it comes to where u.s. equities are trading at this point? xi: there is a lot of talk that u.s. evaluation is pretty high but given the strong economic data we are having and the outlook on the u.s. economy with earnings coming in very strong, over 80% already reported

chicago fed president austan goolsbee said higher inflation for a few months would be consistent with path back to the 2% goal. the current policy stance is restrictive and he doesn't support waiting until 12-month inflation has hit 2% to begin cutting rates. u.s. january retail sales data is due today. a contraction is expected after strong spending over the holiday period. tracking how markets spoke abou positive to the session. a lot of focus on the ftse 100. cac 40 is doing well beefed up by autos this morning. d dax having a day and commerzbank at the top of the dax. >>> this is the picture for the foreign exchange. we are sitting above the 150 levels. yen has strengthened against the u.s. dolblar by .30%. 1.2544 weaker. >>> as for u.s. futures, we had a better day yesterday after the hotter than expected cpi. today looks like all of the three majors are opening up in the green. s&p, dow and nasdaq in positive territory. i'm happy to say chris wylie is joining me on the show. wonderful to have you with us. i'm interested in talking about your traffic light signals which is an int

economic data head and services pmi around the world today and comments from chicago fed president austan goolsbeend atlanta's fed raphael bostic. today and tomorrow, we have numbers from bp and air france. we will have fed talk from cleveland and boston and richmond fed presidents. not yet finished. hermes and pepsi will wrap up the earnings week. we will see u.s. cpi revisions which are recalculated from 2023. if that has been a mouthful for me, it is setting the tone for a busy week which is coming up on the trading calendar. >>> european corporate distress has deepened with challenges. the main drivers according to the european stress index. it states real estate is the most depressed sector with the high interest rates and falling valuation s and germany is the biggest. we have the partner here who is joining me on the set. wonderful to have you with us. >> thank you. >> the high level take away here is this is a critical period for european companies. the stress levels have started to pick up. give us historical context. how does it compare to previous episodes? >> if you think about what th

annabelle: that was the chicago fed president austan goolsbee speaking exclusively to mike mckee.he latest stories from around the world. let's get to these once. israel's foreign minister says time is running out to find a double medic solution to the presence of hezbollah fighters along its border with lebanon. israeli forces have exchanged fire with the militant group almost every day since the hamas attacks of october 7. israel has said it has prepared to open another warfront if has blonde is not retreat from the border under the terms of a long-standing u.n. resolution. donald trump and house republican leaders have slammed a bipartisan senate deal to impose new u.s. border restrictions and unlock billions of dollars in ukraine eight trump used his social media post to call it a death wish for the republican party. speaker johnson said the senate compromise is dead on arrival in the house. the deal to crackdown on illegal border crossings include $60 billion for ukraine. britain's king charles is receiving treatment for an unspecified form of cancer. a new health scare for t

chicago fed president austan goolsbee said there needs to be more favorable data before starting to cuthis is what is a shadow over stocks right now, joining me was advisor founder president mark avallone, good to see you, thank you very much, putting interest rates aside in the federal reserve aside, where is a growth in the economy in your view and do you want to allocate capital based on the growth? >> the growth in the economy is almost tilted to one side entirely and that is the tech sector is also very, very broad so it's not just the magnificent six were that make enter magnificent seven we've been hearing about, there is cloud and cyber and a.i. intech enabled growth in companies that are using it to benefit their bottom lines. its enormous shift in our society not just on wall street and as a money manager we try to diversify but every time we diversify away from technology and growth were in areas that are stagnant or struggling or overregulated and were just not getting the returns. it just seems it's a megatrend in our society that cannot be ignored. maria: michael lee jumpi

austan goolsbee today said the inflation goal based on pce not cpi. market overreacted to the cpi tweeted by eric rosengren. >> spot on in terms of their messaging. i was wrong. i thought the market was correct pricing in six cuts. the federal reserve is the one that was right. i think yesterday validated their patience. we validated the federal reserve's patience. what changed yesterday is the market structure. you've had all this nondiscretionary buying that's sitting there watching you on "closing bell" waiting for breakouts through milestones and coming in with hundreds of billions worth of buying, okay, now they're sitting back. there's no more milestones for them to buy. i think that's a critical factor. i don't know where leadership is rotating to, and i don't know if leadership has to rotate, but i see we have calmed down the strong momentum and i think that will lead to a market that is choppy and sideways. >> not necessarily good to broadening, to the point you're trying to make of believing in the broadening. >> i have to say this. i can't

then chicago bank president austan goolsbee, seemingly more dovish, at an event sponsored by princeton quote, we've made substantial progress on inflation, but there is a risk to betting against the fed's commitment to get to 2%. we get it, they want to get down to 2 inflation. but will the dog days of summer bring us down there so that we can then see a rate cut? let's bring in blackrock cio of global fixed income rick reider in a fox business exclusive. now that you've seen the freshest inflation data, are you altering your rate cut timeline at all? which month do you believe the fed will bring out the scissors? >> so -- [laughter] so i am, thanks, liz, for having me on. so not really. i mean, you know, i think, you know, i thought for a while may is probably the appropriate point. the markets were a little overzealous thinking you were going to get a march cut. i think may, i'd say may into june now. not necessarily because of that core pce number. inflation, you described it exactly right, it's coming down. the haas mile to get to 2 is really hardt -- hard. by the way, if we get to

austan goolsbee talked about this today, saying higher inflation for a few months is okay, it still meanscan be back on the path to the 2% target. he added one should not judge the trend from one month's numbers and pointed to that difference between housing inflation and the cpi and market gauges that show rents falling. but there is, of course, the more worrisome scenario that needs to be considered. the easing of inflation is behind us, and that last mile from 3% to 2% is a tougher one and could require a harder landing. >> the fed may have to hold rates higher, staying in restricted territory longer. that by definition increases the risk of recession. so yes, my assessment is that the risk of recession has gone up moderately. >> while stocks have recovered, the more hawkish outlook on the fed remains. the market looks for around 105 basis points of cuts this year, not the 175 basis points it looked for a month ago. for now, the inflation report introduces risk to that coveted soft landing scenario. it could only be countered by better inflation data. >> all right. let's dive a little

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. >> hey, yeah, austan goolsbee in remarks being given right now is saying that the fed should not wait 2% over a one-year period in order to cut rates. he says you have to have confidence, but he can have that confidence without the one-year annualized rate being at 2%. higher inflation, he says, for a few months is still, he says, consistent with being on the path back to a 2% target. again, goolsbee, the first fed official to comment since that hotter than expected cpi yesterday, and he says the decline in housing inflation is "not as fast as expected," but the cpi housing data is at odds with the market data, which we have been talking about, and he says he's watching that difference there. he says it's important not to judge a trend from a single one-month number, and the cpi and the pce, which is the one the fed follows most closely, can sometimes differ significantly. just a couple more comments here. he says the current policy stance is quite restrictive and that real rates or the inflation-adjusted rate, is "as high as it has been in decades." if you're not getting the point th

we heard from austan goolsbee. basically we are looking at pce, not even at cpi.here seems to be a complacency. are we starting to see cracks under the hood when you look at some of these other manufacturers? started to talk about margin compression, layoffs, uncertainty. >> if you look at some of the reporting numbers that have come through in the past 48 hours, it is about margin especially for the bigger playmakers. but go back to what the op-ed is about. it is folly to completely ignore the cpi data. it's almost an infantile attitude to take toward the data. it has got relevance at some level. lisa: infantile. very well done. i'm wondering, we are hearing from the administration, we are hearing from janet yellen who doesn't think it is infantile, who think that probably should look at the progress. it is going to be bumpy but this is what you're going to expect. >> and we keep going back to the fact that wages have kept up with an elation although we should note that real wages are lower than when i took office. yesterday she said americans should feel confide

austan goolsbee telling michael mckee that he is not willing to rule out a rate cut.. lara rhame saying "it is incredible how long it has taken for the market to let go of hopes for a cut. my expectation is that we get two or three rate cuts in the second half of the year." she is calling them surgical rate cuts. she joins us for more. let us talk about what is happening. we have had a reassessment of what is happening with the federal reserve and yields have climbed over the last two second -- sessions by double digits. are you surprised by how little we have moved and you expect us to use more? -- move more? lara: it has been a reassessment given we have been at 5% as far as october, there is room to have more of a reassessment. this idea that we are pushing rate cuts out month by month by month, that is the question of how we are stepping back and reevaluating as investors the impact of a higher yield war -- higher yield world. you add up the sheer supply of treasury coming online. we will be able to get those options done, that is higher yield. the inflation genie