but the idea that it's going to be conflict between germany and austria hungry and russia, -- austria-hungary was not an unexpected thing. it was quite well done. a lot of history on the importance of the balkans to what happened, not just sorry over and the assassination of duke ferdinand but lots of wars for bosnia's independence from the ottoman empire during the tiebreaker to final book of want to recommend is the bully pulpit. it's essentially the relationship between theodore roosevelt and william howard taft, his successor. two different men with two different styles had a very deep and profound friendship. and teddy could think of no one else to succeed in by william howard taft. and the tragedy unfolding of that relationship once taft became president, and how it never quite got repaired. you really kind of appreciate actually william howard taft more than maybe we think of in our understanding of history, but it's another brilliant effort, really bringing alive history. and by the way, it barely reflects our modern politics. so much of what you read i in te time trade of american hi

>> austria, hungary, czech. great example is russia. invariably with the cheap countries you have terrible news flow. russia is the perfect example of the mean where every day it is negative. often that is when you have the best returns when something goes truly horrific and miserable to slightly less worse. we think it's a huge opportunity for a lot of developing and emerging markets. david: a lot of hedge fund money going to greece and russia looking for some bets. of course a lot of high-risk there too. todd, i want to talk about oil for a second. we saw a inventory count much lower than what was expected. they were expecting a slight gain. instead it was very much to the negative side on the crude inventories. as a result oil spiking. what is going on there with oil? >> i think really you're seeing with oil, inventory numbers are up. we're an oversupplied country. we're seeing a little bit of fear playing out from russia, from ukraine, a little bit in the mideast. we're seeing oil in backwardation model. premium is built in the fron

and at the time there was a secular jewish reporter from austria hungary, and when he saw this outburst of anti-semitism, he was just appalled and horrified. and the conclusion that he came to was that the concept of assimilation that jews could live in the countries of others and that it would work was never going to work. if this could happen in a country, a civilized, cultured country like france where the jewish community had been thriving for a thousand years and where thousands and thousands of jews had served and died for the armies of france, he said this is never going to work. so he said, came to the conclusion that the jewish people had to have a state of their own. and when i was researching this book, i went to paris and was with a two-star general that i was interviewing. he drove me to this street where the original, the first chanel boutique was on the corner. and to a little plaque on the wall above this hotel, and the plaque said in hebrew and french, "here in 1895 theodore herzl, the founder of the psi onist movement, wrote the book that foretold the resurrection of t

100th year anniversary of the assassination of the archduke of austria, a backwater part of the austria-hungaryempire, sarajevo. his assassin was a 20 year-old bosnian serb, a yugoslavian. i've returned to this idea of pan nationalism. that assassination did not cause world war i itself but its as a spark, a spark that lit the tender and soon the continent was ensued in flames. within a couple months, but by july and august we saw what they called the great war, the world war. what h.g. wells and later woodrow wilson called the war to end all wars. 1940-1918, and to give you a sense of the scope of this war and the scope of this conflict would only be eclipsed by world war ii i should have. 65, nearly 70 million mobilized forces. united states was run to the late in 1970 due to strong isolationism, non-interventionism itself mobilized over 4 million troops. the conflict itself, it was a paradigm changing conflict because it showed how you could bring in science, technology, industry and applied on a massive scale. and we saw new forms of warfare, trench warfare, they sit take warfare, aerial wa

cataclysmic war that occurred, but the idea there was going to be conflict between germany and austria hungary and russia, europe or france was not a novel or unexpected thing. and it's really quite well done and a lot of history on the importanceover the balkans -- the importance of the balkans to what happened not just sir slave owe -- sarajevo and and the assassination of duke franz ferdinand, but that time period the final book i want to recommend is torrance ken, goodwin's new brilliant book, the bully pulpit. it's, essentially, the relationship between theodore roosevelt and william howard taft, his successor, how two different men with two very different styles had a deep and profound friendship, and teddy could think of no one else to succeed him and sort of the tragic up folding of that relationship once taft became president and how it never quite got repaired. and you really kind of come to appreciate william howard taft maybe more than we think of in our understanding of history, but it's another brilliant every by doris cerches good wynn really bringing alive this period of histor