the,awaa, research and someone fromdwr, great resources for looking at the likely effects of climate change and i won't spend more time suck rising them. i'm going to focus just on water supply issues in order to simplify the conversation. our recommendations are divided in vulnerability analysis, and dividing the analysis, second is strategy and i want to mention the other two, prevention, how water agency s can be part of a broad strategy to reduce greenhouse gases and third is how we think manager's have a roll to play especially in the american west. there are three response strategies i'd like to talk about. scenarios and strategies is our topic on this panel. the first strategy we think is key, is looking - not just about the impacts of our climate change on our existing cl climate change but looking how it effects the tools into the future. looking forward and how it will effect the tools available to us in the future. the next strategy is integrated water ma'am meant and third one, is inbe greating energy in water issues. let's start just for a moment and talk about what we k

the,awaa,

interestingly, ten years back, the,awaa, published a climate panel that said while water management systems are often flexible water manager's should examine under a wider range of traditional use. they said it's not uh. they made that recommendation and not that much actually has been done ultimately. many other suggestions of what should be done you've heard a lot of them already. i do want to show this slide. this is mississippi river, the actual flow at saint louis. the data comes from the armed corporation to around the year 2000, to 2001. if you draw a straight line here, the straight red line is basically the flood risk, assume this record is stationary that the climate is not changing. in fact, statistically, if you ⌜"at this record, it's not stationary. average flow in the mississippi river seems to be going on. i don't know if it's climate change but its the kind of thing that makes long-term planning managers nervous. one is the model you plan for the average flood over the last historical record or potentially the tree ring record or whether you assume climate is not stationary