what is the key idea with the bank of england? tions and who is prepared to sit tight and who is not? the bank carney with of england rate decision. people say you will not see a letter to the chancellor. new york, we miss you. there we are, a view out to where the new york jets -- actually, the new york jets play in new jersey. i don't get it. mohamed el-erian will explain that. ♪ jonathan: governor carney stares down the political unknown. it is decision day for the bank of england. barclays boss needs 18 months to complete the turnaround. to bloomberg.aks and d.c. is distracted. publicans insist they will plow ahead with tax reform despite the white house drama. this is bloomberg daybreak." david westin. let's go to guy johnson in the city. guy: the bank of england is saying that they may need tighter policy for the yield curve. get on it, get on it. it doesn't offer any policy guidance coming through. what it does indicate the tightening that may be needed. havemember that they do that number at the moment. hobbes is not voting

the bank of england delivered its rate decision with an inflation report. ction and brexit keep the central bank governors hands tied? staleydown with jes after shareholders give him a vote of confidence. his whistleblowing scaaln

the bank of england says there are still 150 million of them in circulation, although banks and buildingsocieties will accept them. there are some flashing images in this report. the period ofjuggling both the old and new £5 notes is coming to an end. the old ones have to go back to the bank. but some at this london market aren't prepared for the paper five is being ceased as legal tender at midnight tomorrow. do people not know? i haven't seen it on the news, i haven't read it in the paper. so a real surprise. there are 150 million out there so you might see some more. it's not legal tender after friday so it's no good. people got used to the paper five featuring elizabeth fry. she is now making way for the winston churchill plastic fiver. it means that after this there won't be a bank of england note with a woman on it, except for the queen. but the bank of england says 150 million notes remain at large. so why the abrupt cut—off? the new polymer £5 note featuring winston churchill has lots of clever security features that make it much more secure. we want the public to have those note

the bank of england delivered its rate decision with an inflation report. will the election and brexit keep the central bank governors hands tied? staleydown with jes after shareholders give him a vote of confidence. his whistleblowing scandal in the rearview mirror? hefty bonusesming after years of fixed income trade. a different story for the rest of wall street? it mean foroes global wall street question mark we are less than half an hour away from the european open. take a look at the futures right now, pointing for the most part two gains in european trading. we have futures falling on the dax in frankfurt, right now completely unchanged but slight gains on the cac and ever so slight on the ftse futures. maybe more importantly, look to three-day this is a chart i have got up and you can see yields rising as investors selling out german debt, so maybe, just maybe they are preparing for a bit of a risk on day. what also be got? -- else have you got? checking on gmm. the canadian dollar down by .51%. this is the obvious story that came out overnight create

the bank of england sounds a note of caution about the economy.cause the governor says household spending is slowing. there‘s been a record fine for the company that made 100 million cold calls. their automated messages encouraged people to make insurance claims. and in sport, the fa chairman greg clark has dismissed claims that agents are being paid too much in football. speaking at a fever conference in bahrain, he said clubs are entitled to pay agents whatever they see fit. fifa says previous —— they see fit. fifa says previous —— the head of fifa says previous criticism of fifa has beenjustified but they are making changes. and in golf, rory mcilroy talks about shedding the post—wedding weight. waiting times for a number of key nhs services in england were the worst in five years, according to analysis of figures for the year to the end of march. more people waited more than four hours to be seen in a&e, and cancer referral times also worsened. saffron cordery of nhs providers, the body that represents nhs trusts in england, is in westminster.

the bank of england sounds a note of caution about the economy.en a record fine for the company that made 100 million cold calls. their automated messages encouraged people to make insurance claims. hello, now the business news. now a look at how the markets in europe have ended the trading session. it has been a pretty flat today. here mixed economic news affected the markets. here in the uk some mixed economic news really affected trade. in the us retail and tech have been coming under pressure. let's look at the detail. snapchat‘s results were much worse than expected. the company lost 2.2 billion dollars in the first three months of the year. the share price fell by almost a quarter after the news, though it has recovered a bit since then. bt is cutting 4,000 jobs over the next couple of years. most of those are going to come from back office staff and managers. and the boss his losing his bonus. profits came in at 440 million pounds in the last quarter. that's a drop of almost a half. there's been a warning from the bank of england about infl

the gilt market, that's where you could interpret whether the gilt market is buying what the bank of england is saying. interest rates would need to rise more than the market curve currently suggests at the end of its three-year forecast. the bank of england is predicating this on the assumption that brexit goes smoothly. that is a pretty big assumption to make. hike fastereed to than the market expects to keep everything in check. this is one of mark carney's comments. mark carney: brexit will play an in port and roll factors will include the outlook for the economy and inflation. in judging the appropriateness of the monetary stance, the committee will monitor closely incoming evidence regarding a range of factors. -- brexit will play an important role. nejra: this is where the discussion of wage growth came, mark. what mark carney was arguing was that a lot of the inflation above forecast we've seen -- we -- above the rate already was due to a weaker sterling. sterling might rise as a result of that. from does inflation come that they are seeing beyond the three years of their forecast? i

let's start with the bank of england. a lot of reports on whether there is any hint of an interest rate rise. as ben was saying earlier, virtually no expectation we will get an interest rate rise. it is almost a question of if we will get one before the end of if we will get one before the end of the year. i would say almost certainly not. or the end of next year? even before the brexit negotiations? we will still be here discussing it! we could make a case for not seeing an interest rate rise until the uk has got through the brexit negotiations, it is the one piece of ammunition that the bank of england has in the reserves to kick—start the economy. i think we will see some signs of slowing inflation, numbers should take up a little bit. we're getting used to higher energy prices, commodity prices, that kind of stuff, and the effect of weaker sterling for goods being imported into the uk. a quick look on the outlook, away from the interest rate decision, we will give you the update on what the economy is doing, and it is

i respect the regulatory construct in the united kingdom, the bank of england. utives should be .eld accountable it is an important piece of regulation in the united kingdom. here, one of my goals was to be transparent with regulators. we are partners in trying to avoid the next financial crisis. there is a constructive dialogue between park, the boe, and fca. it is important to us. i respect the framework, and let's see how this plays out. happense unthinkable and you are deemed unfit to run barclays, does the bank have a plan, a succession plan? >> i have the full support of the board. shareholder vote today. let's let the investigation run its course. >> what i still can't understand, and i know i speak for other people as well, is what would motivate you to that judgment? there are so many things in front of the chief executive officer of a bank with the complexity of barclays, decisions taken every single day. i thought i was trying to protect a colleague who was runnable from a malicious attack , but i should not have gotten involved as i did. that was a mi

the bank of england has warned of a squeeze on household incomes this year, as the cost of living risesges. the bank's governor mark carney said he expected only moderate growth for the uk economy. and looking further ahead, he said better prospects depended on the government securing a "smooth" exit from the european union. our economics editor kamal ahmed has the details. wherever you live, a clear message from the bank. only 17, a year of squeezed incomes, high prices and slower growth. what better news could be coming. mark carney kicked off his mixed message on the uk economy with a warning. this is going to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, the user to demolish the —— terminology, will be negative. use theirs, it won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those who seem more positives ahead. no matter what you buy in the shops these days, everything has gone up in price.” do think it is going to get worser when brexit hit hard. i'm not looking forward to the consequences of brexit. we are

the bank of england right now is probably -- the policy of the bank of england is probably on the rightyou know there always the possibility that we may get a downturn which is more severe or extended than a lot of people inspected it to be pure the bank of england tomorrow is likely to revise inflation forecast higher and advise rose lower. it is all about confidence -- growth lower. it is all about confidence. what we have seen in sterling has made the number of assumptions, all of which are individually -- they may be valid, but i'm not entirely certain that in the end, this is where we are going to end up. i still bearish on the u.k. economy and i still have a bearish bias on sterling. manus: very briefly, the best-performing industry in the g10? vasileios: i think you definitely need to see a sizable move towards a soft brexit scenario, which i do not think we are going to get anytime soon. manus: that does not seem to be in the pot at the moment. vasileios gkionakis, thank you very much. global head of strategy at unicredit. ceo joins us. we will talk through his outlook. with nov

back now to that report from the bank of england. of the falling pound in the wake of the brexit vote. here‘s what the governor mark carney had to say. the projected inflation entirely reflects the effects on prices of the fall in sterling since late 2013, a depreciation caused by market expectations of a material adjustment to the uk‘s medium term prospect as it leaves the european union. the contribution to inflation of higher import prices is likely to fade gradually throughout the period. the extent to which domestic cost pressures pick up all the time and where cbi inflation settles towards the end of the forecast. mark carney. so what will this mean for our pockets? alix stewart from schroders joins us now. thanks forjoining us. what will this mean for the way we live our lives, our standard of living? well, it is hard to tell at the moment. at the moment, as mark carney said, inflation has been rising because the currency has been weak, affecting people as prices go up for imported goods. wages are not keeping up with it, and

there's a bank of england meeting that we'll talk about. gold prices got a bit of a bid yesterday for the first time in a while. they're up again about 0.2%. let's add bitcoin to the mix. it crossed $1800 for the first time adding 3 billion in market cap in four days. among the reasons for the rally, legalization in japan, also minneapolis fed president neel kashkari talked up the potential of the technology behind the crypt to crypto currency. best performing asset of 2017 so far. >> another thing to say on markets, for the week as a whole, the nasdaq up a half percent. dow down a fraction. despite the big stories that develop out of washington, this market is focused on earnings, that's highlighted with snap, with disney, also earnings are in focus, not politics, shrugging off other thoughts. >> pushing off the prospects of tax reform and deregulation. there's only 30 legislative days left before the august recess on the calendar, how much band width will there be for congress. it doesn't appear investors are nervous about it. there are tw

the other main stories: the bank of england downgrades its forecast for economic growth this year, with warning of a squeeze on consumer spending. this is going to be a more challenging time for british households. over the course of this year real income growth, to use our terminology, will be negative. to use theirs, wages won't keep up with prices. three women, including a mother and daughter, appear in court charged with terrorism offences and conspiracy to murder. a marketing company is given a record fine of £400,000 for making nearly 100 million nuisance phone calls. all right, where do you want me? bouncing on my knee. where do you think i want you? and rather mixed reviews for david beckham, following his cameo role in the new film king arthur. it's 5pm. our main story is that labour's election manifesto has been formally approved by the party leadership, and is set to be formally launched within days. but some of the main parts of the manifesto have already found their way into the public domain, after a version of the document was leaked overnight. it included proposals to re

but crucially it's above the bank of england's 2% target. of the later date of easter this year compared with 2016. this is alan clark, who's an economist at scotia bank. the main reason inflation ro5e today is the different timing of easter this year compared with last year. that pushed up airfares sharply, on top of that we had some utility bill hikes and the ongoing increa5e in the price of goods we import from abroad. because the pound is weaker, they are becoming more expensive so that is what pushed it up very sharply and i think it will keep rising but i don't think it's reasonable to expect such a big jump every month. today was a bit of a one—off. i think it's important to distinguish between the sort of inflation we have now which is imported, due to the weak pound, which the bank of england has very little control over, ver5u5 domestically generated inflation, 5ervices, things the bank of england can control. tho5e one5 aren't ri5ing, the price of haircut5 and services, things like that. if the bank of england were to raise intere

the bank of england has warned of a squeeze on household incomes this year as the cost of living rises, mark carney, expected only moderate growth for the uk economy. looking further ahead, he predicted a better prospect, but only if the government secures a smooth exit from the eu. our economics editor kamal ahmed reports. wherever you live, a clear message from the bank. 2017, a year of squeezed incomes, higher prices and slower growth. but better news could be coming. mark carney kicked off his mixed message on the uk economy with a warning. this is going to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, to use our terminology, will be negative. to use theirs, wages won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those that see more positives ahead. no matter what you go in to buy nowadays, even the shops, or even for the animals, whatever, everything has gone up in price. i do think it's going to get worse when brexit hits hard. so i would say i'm not really looking forward to the consequences of brexit. we

the bank of england downgrades its growth forecast, saying household spending is slowing. a record fine for the company that made 100 million cold calls. their automated messages encouraged people to make insurance claims. three women including a mother and daughter have appeared in court charged with terror offences and conspiracy to murder. waiting times for key nhs services, including a&e and cancer referrals, are at their worst level in england for four years. all right, where do you want me? bouncing on my knee, where do you think i want you? and, act it like beckham! the former footballer gets mixed reviews for his latest appearance on the big screen. and coming up in the sport on bbc news: fifa president gianni infantino admits criticism aimed at the body has been deserved, but has warned against "fake news" and "alternative facts". good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. a draft of labour's general election manifesto has been leaked, and it includes radical plans to renationalise the railways and royal mail, to scrap university tuition fees in england, a

the bank of england thinks rates will accelerate, but for us wages won't pick up, inflation will keep picking up. the consumer will struggle more than the bank are factoring in. as far as companies and investment are concerned, you mentioned the big word out there all the time, brexit. we think the closer we get to the two-year deadline, the more uncertainty builds, and the more investment cools down. >> let's look at it more closely at the labor market. at first glance it seems a confusing peck chore. low unemployment, a pretty tight market. but as you mentioned wage growth is under pressure. is this a conundrum? how do we explain what is going on here? >> it is a bit. you can see the same thing in the u.s., very low in employment rate, wages not doing what they would have done with unemployment around these levels. so it's something that the bank are having to try to work out reasons for they now think the neutral rates of unemployment are lower than they used to think. we think part of the story is companies being more defense ef around what lies ahead. they don't want to give big

yesterday we had the bank of england giving their inflation report and their inflation forecast has increased of an interest rate move. yes, a combination of higher inflation expected and lower growth, which is making the bank of england remain on hold. a lot of commentary about the strength of the uk consumer, a little bit of wea kness uk consumer, a little bit of weakness coming from that consumer but other parts of the economy such as exports and potential investment from abroad should balance that. things get complicated, the impact of the brexit vote and the potential for inflation to rise and growth to stag nate for inflation to rise and growth to stagnate at the same time, soft data comes in handy. yes. this is happening globally. survey data coming out quite strong that we want to see the gdp numbers, some of which we have been seeing coming out quite strong, but we want to see the ha rd quite strong, but we want to see the hard data come out strong as well to support it which is what the bank of england and lots of central banks around the world are hoping for. looking at the markets

it is decision day for the bank of england. the bank of england keeps interest rates unchanged. e bank of england saying the u.k. may need tighter policy than the yield curve implies. get on it, the message to the markets this morning. the bank of england raising its inflation forecast in 2017 .7%, cutting its gdp forecast. >> they said they predicate the forecast on a smooth brexit. are the risks symmetric? is there a possibility of a super smooth brexit? >> no, of course not. >> the rest are on the downside. >> if you look at the last 10 forecasts, they have done exactly the same. they said wages are going to pick up, 4%, back to where was in 2006. and every time in the last 10, they have been wrong. every forecast going forward, they lower the wage growth forecast and they get it back to 2%. the whole of this forecast, the whole positive of this forecast, rest on this illusion that wages are going to rise. they are not. i am afraid it is complete nonsense that i heard today. >> we have breaking news out of washington. the u.s. and china have reached a sweeping trade deal. >> x

a note of caution about the economy — the bank of england governor says 2017 is likely to be the low t for wage growth. this is going to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. wages won't keep up with prices for the goods and services they consume. waiting times for key nhs services in england were the worst in five years in the latest financial year, according to new analysis. three women including a mother and daughter are remanded in custody for eight days charged with terrorism offences and conspiracy to murder. i'm rebecca jones. and in the next hour, a record £a00,000 fine for making over 100 million nuisance calls. marketing firm, keurboom communications, made repeated calls, sometimes at unsocial hours, trying to get people to make compensation claims. where do you want me? bouncing on my knee. where do you think i want you? and david beckham makes his big screen debut in king arthur — but his cameo performance gets mixed reviews. good afternoon and welcome to bbc news. a draft of labour's general election manifesto has been leaked, and

the bank of england said there are still around 150 million in circulation. w tougher plastic fiver, but it seems some are not aware of the change. 0ur personal finance correspondent simon gompertz reports. it is exactly 15 years since the paper £5 note entered circulation 110w paper £5 note entered circulation now winston churchill is taking over. plenty of shoppers still have the old notes and some traders do not know the end is nigh. had no idea. absolutely surprise. i have just been told it is finishing. you still have people bringing them in? absolutely. did you know the old £5 note is finishing on friday night. no. is that a surprise. yes, of course. a of remain at large. three notes for each adult in the uk. after friday, you will still be able to ta ke after friday, you will still be able to take the old £5 note to your bank and deposit it or exchange at but shops will not be accepting them so you are probably best spending them before then. the bank of england says it will accept returns of the paper note for all time but they. being illegal tender fr

the bank of england says there are still 150 million of them in circulation — although most banks anddetails from our personal finance correspondent, simon gompertz. his report contains flashing images. the period ofjuggling both the old and new £5 notes is coming to an end. the old ones have to go back to the bank. but some at this london market aren't prepared for the paper fiver ceasing to be legal tender at midnight tomorrow. are you sure? absolutely positive. 0k. do you think a lot of people know? no, i don't think many people know at all. i haven't seen it on the news, i haven't read it in the paper. so yeah, it's a real surprise. there are millions still out there, so you'll probably see some more. well, listen, they're not legal tender after friday, so it's not good money, is it? people have got used to the paper fiver featuring elizabeth fry, launched exactly 15 years ago. she's now making way for the winston churchill plastic fiver. it means until september there won't be a bank of england note with a woman on it, other than of course the queen. but the bank says 150 million

the bank of england has warned of a squeeze on household incomes this year as the cost of living risesly moderate growth for the uk economy. looking further ahead, he predicted a better prospect but only if the government secures a smooth exit from the eu. 0ur economics editor, kamal ahmed, reports. wherever you live, a clear message from the bank. 2017, a year of squeezed incomes, higher prices and slower growth. but better news could be coming. mark carney kicked off his mixed message on the uk economy with a warning. this is going to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, to use our terminology, will be negative. to use theirs, wages won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those that see more positives ahead. no matter what you go in to buy nowadays, even the shops, or for the animals, whatever, everything has gone up in price. i do think it's going to get worse when brexit hits hard. so i would say i'm not really looking forward to the consequences of brexit. we are seeing stability in the u

up, what does brexit mean for the bank of england? e get any mood on rates until after brexit? this is bloomberg. ♪ news comingood through, adjusted profit read euros.es, 744 million the are confirming reduction of crude oil. all benefiting from the crude betterce which is 55% than it was in the first quarter of 2017. target inon of the terms of net income. anna: let's get the bloomberg business flash. rally sinceenure the arrival of the iphone season become the first u.s. company work 800 billion dollars. shares have continued to rise slowingthe firm reports sales. it's climbed 33% so far this year. inflation in the u.s. grocery market is waning and it expects better pricing in the second half to boost sales growth. first-quarter earnings reported ahead of analyst estimates, following cost-cutting through a dutch belgian merger last year. we will speak to the president and ceo of the company at 7:20 u.k. time. while disney's earnings have failed to assuage domestic concerns about its cable division. profit in the business slumped last

a decision from the bank of england and round to of the french presidential election.s is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time for the final sprint. a flurry of fed speakers, a bank of england decision. when you look at who is going to win this election in france, macron is comfortably in the league. swell,to bring back mike priscilla hancock, and luke hickmore. it feels like we have been fading the le pen story for a number of weeks. the base case scenario for most people is macron. let's say he doesn't, what happens to the markets? luke: he will. if le pen gets to the presidential suite, it is risk off in a big way. it is not about how much he can can do domestically, but it is what she can do around europe. jonathan: th other de of that question is what happens if you get the base case scenario, emmanuel macron wins, and french bonds have stabilized, what does it look like that? luke: nothing. it looks like he may even get a majority in the national assembly. that is great for france. you can get these structural changes tha

the bank of england downgrades its forecast for economic growth this year, with a warning of a squeezemes for some nhs services in england are the worst in five years. coming up on newsnight: the politics, policy and reaction to labour's manifesto so far. is it as radical as we have been told?

so, just beginning to pull away from that bank of england conference. me for households. he also said that week wage growth reflects a relatively weak productivity performance, and in the last few months, he said the signs are that productivity has been improving. they also said monetary policy can't fully adjust or compensate for the new conditions as big as to brexit negotiations, but he said he was more positive about future growth, as long as brexit was smooth. much more analysis on what has come from the bank of england throughout the day. researchers from bristol university say hiv patients can now expect to live close to the same age as the general population. their findings represent a ten—year increase in life expectancy, since drug treatment became widely available two decades ago. here's our health correspondent jane dreaper. voiceover: it is a deadly disease, and there is no known cure. doom—laden government adverts in the 1980s warned about the dangers of the virus behind aids, and urged us not to die of ignorance. jonathan learned he was hi

the trickle—down effect may not have been as much as the bank of england we re been as much as the banks central reserve, that the fed might be raising interest rates next month ‘s stateside. why do we care? in the end where the us economy goes, the world economy tends to go, and the stock market. america is the biggest economy, the home of the reserve currency, biggest stock market, biggest bond market, it does matter in that respect. but equally, i don't think the bank of england will be dashing to tighten, even if the federal reserve does. that is always good to talk to you, russ. a quick reminder of how the ftse100 finished the session here in london. 0n the up, but only ever so slightly. meanwhile, over in the states, record highs after those minutes from federal reserve showing policymakers are expected to pick up momentum comes to the economy, raising interest rates potentially, all of this comes after wall street scored a fifth straight day of gains on wednesday. you can get in touch with me on twitter. the court of appeal has upheld a previous ruling that doctors can withdraw l

bank around. he restructured. they like what he has been doing, but as i say, it won't necessarily be down to them if he loses the confidence of the bank of englandhe bank of england can see off any chief executive. we know that too well. on the business live page there will be updates about how the agm goes at ba rclays updates about how the agm goes at barclays bank. updates about how the agm goes at ba rclays bank. there updates about how the agm goes at barclays bank. there is other stories including snap judgment. snap's first earnings will be posted today. it will be watched closely by investors to see how the latest tech u psta rt investors to see how the latest tech upstart is doing on the markets. indeed, the first since they floated. a top story, the world's biggest car manufacturer toyota have just posted results. they bit of a mixed bag. it all came out after the trading day ended in tokyo. we will see how toyota shares go tomorrow. for many of us, our next guest has been responsible for the soundtrack of the ‘70s and ‘80s, signing acts like blondie, spandau ballet and sinead 0 connor. chris wright created independent label chrysalis

we will be working with the bank of england to read a short international investors. n things are changing, international investors do look back to the bank of england for reassurance. he had plans in place to read a short investors. him when we with take power. >> the bank of england is independent. >> is very great master plan? >> it to fit onto itself when it wasn't clear what was going to happen with the brexit vote. whoever wins under the age, the bank of england will play that role again. >> ever since he started campaigning as president, he wants trade agreements. they were much more in the favor of the united states. it was a massive negotiation. how you get trade agreements which benefit everybody. >> do think that if labor does when -- what happened afterwards? >> we have a number of commitments. these --o guarantee the safety. we are protecting jobs, protecting standards, protecting the economy. --will not priorities prioritize controlling immigration. at that there their roles and management, we will prioritize the economy. we're not talking about opening u

it is decision day for the bank of england. 7-1 vote. the u.k. tighter policy for the yield curve. get on it, get on it -- the message to the markets this morning. >> the bank of england raising its inflation forecast to 2.7%, cutting it gdp forecast. >> they said they predicated this forecast on a smooth brexit. is there a possibility of a super smooth brexit? >> no, of course not. >> if you look at the last 10 forecast, they have done exactly the same. we did are going to ckp. it will be 4%, back to where it was in 2006. and every time in the last 10, they havberong. every forecast going for, they lower the wage growth forecast. and to get it back to 2%. the whole positive of this forecast rests on this illusion that wages are going to rise. they are not. it is completeonnse that i heard today. >> we have breaking news out of washington. the u.s. and china have reached a sweeping trade deal. >> donald talked about this 100 a period where there was go behind-the-scenes work out a trade deal. they had delivered on this. 10 consensus has been reac

investors bid on the bank of england. announcing a decision no change in terms of interest rates. of england. kids across the board take a look. the best performer there, the cost being korea up 1%.

what might the bank of england do? the bank of england target is two point —— 2%. f england said they believed inflation could peak at 2.8%. if they are correct, then they are almost there. lots of a nalysts a re then they are almost there. lots of analysts are saying they think inflation will rise to 3.25, maybe 3.5%. but if the bank of england we re 3.5%. but if the bank of england were to increase interest rates, that would affect consumers because wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation, so many analysts think we are unlikely to see a change in interest rates this year. let's get the weather. good afternoon and as is often the case we have some huge contrasts of prostate uk in the look and feel of the weather. we have this weather front draped across the uk, towards the north and west we have showers but towards the south and east it is dry and quite warm, 24, maybe 25 degrees here. to the north and west it‘s fresher but still pleasant and not with sunny spells. this evening and overnight the skies will be clear for and overnight the skies will be clearfo

the cost of living is set to rise faster than wages this year — that's what the governor of the bank of englandgiven that it comes just before the general election. so what is their assessment? well, they say the economy will grow more slowly this year, by 1.9% rather than the 2% they first thought. and the economy relies on consumers spending cash — that does not seem like a lot but we will discuss it in more detail. and we're all cutting back a bit. but the economy relies on consumers spending cash. we've got less money in our pockets because the cost of living is rising faster than wages. the bank of england governor blamed that on a weak pound. good morning, hannah. as sally said there is a lot to get through yesterday we heard a lot from the bank of england. what was the standout moment? the really came ta keaway standout moment? the really came takeaway is that there will be extra pressure on household income that your wages will not purchase so much over the next year. it pays to look after your own money and make sure you are not spending anything on stuff you do not need. we look at wa

the fed tightening, the bank of england for sure, is not doing more qe. . set prices, that is we lived off of in europe for five years. there has been a little bit of growth recently. we have lift off there is no alternative. so interesting question. mark: so what do we buy? s&p records 21 month high in europe. the euro had a great round. what do we buy? stephen: i think one still needs to look at some sort of diversification. active management is the story. trying to make big macro calls , but there are no easy ones. i want to bring attention to what happened to etf flows. more than three times the first quarter of 2016. say retail money is flooding into and chasing etf's and chasing a few big stocks. we know who they are. apple, facebook, amazon, etc. they are very expensive. sell those stocks now and look to get proper value active management. mark: great to see you. stephen isaacs, chairman of the investment committee at alvine capital. vonnie: still ahead, we look inside monetary policy with alice rivlin, the former federal reserve vice chair. this is b

it is decision day for the bank of england. england keeps interest rates unchanged. e vote there was 7-1. the u.k. may need tighter policy than the yield term implies. get on it, the message this morning. >> the bank of england raising its conflation forecasts in 2017. two 2.7%, cutting its gdp forecast. >> they predicate this forecast on a smooth brexit. is there a possibility of a no, ofmooth brexit? >> course not. >> if you look at the last 10 forecasts, they were exactly the same. they said wages will pick up. it will be 4%, back to where it was in 2006. every time in the last 10, they have been wrong. every forecast going forward, they lower the wage growth forecast and they get it back to two. before this forecast, the whole positive of this forecast rests on this illusion that wages will rise. they will not. and i am afraid it was complete nonsense what i heard today. >> we have some breaking news out of washington. the u.s. and china have reached a sweeping trade deal. jumping and donald trump -- they have -- where they would go behind the scenes. they had del

the bank of england has warned of a squeeze on household incomes this year, as the cost of living risesarney, said he expected only moderate growth for the uk economy. looking further ahead, he said better prospects depended on the government securing a "smooth" exit from the european union. our economics editor, kamal ahmed, is here with more details. thanks, huw. today's report actually can be summed up in about seven words. short term negative. longer term more positive. global growth is looking better, and the bank says its working on the asumption that eu deal will work out. but, the governor started with a warning about where we are now. well, this is going to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, to use our terminology, will be negative. to use theirs, wages won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those that see more positives ahead. no matter what you go in to buy nowadays, even in the shops or even for the animals, no matter what, everything has gone up in price. i do think it's going t

the bank of england always will. came in. september. since like a very fast turnaround. it has been. not quite sure why that is. normally there is a bit more of a gap. but i think because we have 2a hour news, twitter, facebook and all the rest of it, i think the bank of england expects the message to get out there quicker. it is interesting, we spoke to quite a few shopkeepers, market stallholders and people like that, most were unaware of the deadline.” know, it is a problem, and that is why we are doing things like this, it is fantastic because it gets the message out there. most people if you are waiting in a supermarket queue, and people are spending less than a tenner, very often theyjust use contactless cards now. sadly, i am not going to comment on that, i runa am not going to comment on that, i run a magazine on coins, i don't wa nt run a magazine on coins, i don't want people to use contactless! do you think there is a bit of a threat to paper money? inevitably people will go over the contactless cards and m

the cap has caused a significant real—terms pay cut for nurses. a significant real—terms the bank of englande squeezed as wages fail to keep up with rising prices. as part of our reality check series on key issues in the run—up to the election, tonight steph mcgovern examines what has happened to pay. tonight steph mcgovern examines whether you think the politicians are spinning you a yarn or not, the key issues being debated are really important to lots of people, not least how much we are being paid. if you look back over the last decade, average wages in real terms have been falling. decade, average wages in real in other words, the cost of living has been going up faster than pay and that means we have been facing a pay cut. even though we have seen wages start to go up over the last few years, there is a lot of catching up to do. to go up over the last few years, before the financial crisis, average weekly earnings when you take into account inflation, were £476, now they are down to £467. inflation, were £476, now they by their very nature, these figures are averages, so therefore they

the next chunk is the domestic weakness setting and and as the end, because the bank of england thanksnterest rates are too low, that prompts too much wage growth and you have inflation going up again. it is a little bit of a roller coaster, but there's logic behind it. mark: the economy will remain around trend? >> there's not too much overheating. it is a modest mark: forecast. on wages, which we love to talk about as well, he expects no increase in real wages this year for the obvious reasons, but he says wages will pick up in 2018 and 2019. courieranny bonds file -- earlier. forecasting about wage is wage always picks up into years time. i said that for the past 10 years. i would not be surprised if we end up with another forecast here. low.loyment is very when is it going to pick up? it is not knowledge, it is hoped. mark: hope from january of bloomberg intelligence. let's move it on. let's get more insight on where the economy stands, where it is headed, what it means for investors. sterling is lower today. mark richards is here, global strategist to jpmorgan. questec did you see

the bank of england governor mark carney says the u.k.'tral bank may have to raise rates sooner than expected based on new forecasts that presume a smooth brexit. traders are questioning the likelihood of such an outlook, sending the pound down. thee have assumed that process of leaving the european union would be a smooth one. twhat does that mean? that means there will be in agreement about the future trading arrangements. that there will be a transition or an implication period from the negotiation to that new agreement. guy: andy chase is the head of european rate strategy at nomura. carney to markets, you are mispricing it. markets to carney, we ain't. andy: that line that was in there about having surprising -- was at odds with everything else in the report. i think the market look at the report and saw where the inflation forecast were lower than they were before. and just thought, there is no pressing need for us to get hikes. i wonder if they are trying to nudge the market around, rather than actually say that we are going to be h

and it's been revealed the bank of england's staff have been studying dr seuss to brush up on communicationkills because he has been described as a master of using simple language. with like to know what business language you think would benefit from the dr seuss treatment. we promise no jargon here on business live. india has retained its crown as the fastest growing major economy in the world. economists are predicting indian economy grew by 7.1%, that's in the first three months of this year. but would be faster than china which is currently at 6.9%. the resilience of the indian economy will be welcome news for prime minister narendra modi following the country's landmark demonetisation programme. that was when — at the end of last year — the government removed around 86% of all banknotes from circulation in a bid to crackdown on corruption. it led to widespread disruption and queues outside banks and cashpoints, but the shock announcement seems to have had limited impact on growth. and there could be more good news for the indian economy next month when consumers will see major tax refo

that is a real opportunity to borrow at record low rates and that means you can back and the bank of england of this kind, to build the road and infrastructure, is really welcome. it is a very different prospectus, more tax and spend, and balance the books. labour says it would like to nationalise royal mail, the water companies and national rail, and the costs are attached. if nothing else, the choice on the 8th ofjune is now a clear one. labour's history in bradford goes back more than a century. today all three of the city's constituencies are labour. i've spent the day here talking to people about the manifesto. tucked into the foothills of the pennines, bradford has travelled from victorian splendour to more challenging times. unemployment is higher than the national average. bradford west has a large immigrant community and it has one of the highest proportion of young voters in england and wales. this woman is 25. just give me an idea of what kind of policy affects you. i feel it's very very important that the state does have a bigger part in what's going on. we really really need rad

manus: yesterday we had another governor of the bank of england, i am not modeling a hard brexit. t the bank of ireland a hard brexit? philip: we have to look at every scenario, the difference for the bank of england, they have to make a policy decision. as part of the euro area, our policy decision in frankfurt at the governing council is for the euro area aggregate. our work is in forecasting the irish economy and thinking about financial stability risks. for financial stability's assessment -- assessment, we definitely do a look at hard brexit scenario. let's talk about the upside. and seey -- i come back the docs where we are downtown, it is growing. the number of institutions that could come here -- are you being overly cautious in your welcome? some people are saying, we had conversations, they are not that open. respond. philip: i don't think that is accurate whatsoever. what we say consistently is it is an eu single. whether you are looking to come to dublin or someone else in the eu, the regulatory regime will be the same. that is all we are saying, we will provide a consi

opportunity to borrow at record low rates, which means you can pay it back and it also means the bank of englandld hope it would do. right now, invest of this kind to get the economy moving to build the roads and infrastructure we need is really welcome. it is a very different prospectus. more tax spand, less balance the books. labour has also said it wants to renationalise water companies, the railways and the royal mail and costs are attached. if nothing else, the choice onjune 8th is certainly, now, a clear one. as we've heard, labour is promising to renationalise parts of four key industries — rail, electricity, royal mail, and england's water companies, if it wins power. water was privatised by margaret thatcher back in 1989 and since then, bills have risen by 40% above the rate of inflation. 0ur industry correspondent, john moylan, has been assessing what a return to public ownership would mean for the water industry. we all need water, but for busy households like this family near southampton, that comes at a price. despite attempts to cut back, their annual water bill has doubled in the

yvonne: the bank of england's governor taking a for granted that brexit will be smooth.owever, investors are not so sure. said heresident trump intended to fire the fbi director all along. yvonne: korea may see its biggest ipo in years. they raised more than $2 billion. we have world coverage here on daybreak asia. we will have the latest news from sydney. betty: and, follow from firing of thep's fbi director, that stunning news earlier this week. we are live from our u.s. and asia headquarters. i am in new york, it is just after 7:00 p.m. yvonne: it is just after 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. a soggy day in asia, not just the weather. the markets, as well. earnings at a retail with the biggest disappointment. consumer staples were one of the better performers today on the s&p. as you mentioned, that risk off coming into the market, we did fight back from the low of the session to close near the high of the session. still on the red. s&p down 2/10 of 1%. losing. that makes it all the more poor and -- important to see direction in the market. an upside to the retail scale numbe

the bank of england says there are still 150 million of them in circulation. ing both the old and new £5 notes is coming to an end. the old ones have to go back to the bank. but some at this london market aren't prepared for the paper fiver ceasing to be legal tender at midnight tomorrow. are you sure? absolutely positive. 0k. do you think a lot of people know? no, i don't think many people know at all. i haven't seen it on the news, i haven't read it in the paper. so, yeah, it's a real surprise. there are millions still out there, so you'll probably see some more. well, listen, they're not legal tender after friday, so it's not good money, is it? people have got used to the paper fiver featuring elizabeth fry, launched exactly 15 years ago. she's now making way for the winston churchill plastic fiver. it means until september there won't be a bank of england note with a woman on it, other than of course the queen. but the bank says 150 million old fivers remain at large. that's £750 million worth — or three notes for each adult — in tills, purses and jam jars.