growth of .2% or .3% is below the bank of england's expectations as they printed in their last inflationalso important to look at what the bank of england's expectations are for the rest of the year. that will give us a clue as to what would happen with policy further down the line. but think any immediate concerns about an interest rate hike next week are overdone. so you think if it is .3% as expected, we will not see a high? exactly. thank you very much forjoining us, dean. will nintendo continue its comeback? the japanese gaming giant will release quarterly earnings later. the big question — whether the portable switch console will be the money—spinner nintendo has been hoping for. sharanjit leyl is in our asia business hub in singapore. what do we expect to hear? that is right. those numbers are due out after the japanese market closes. as you say, expectations are that switch will take nintendo from strength to strength. it launched in march and immediately nintendo sold about 2.7 million units. we should compare that to its rivals, xbox, which sold about 3 billion units. —— 2.7 bi

jonathan: who hikes first -- the bank of england or the ecb? jim: bank of england by a hair. of england by sheer accident. margaret: ecb. jonathan: where is the highest risk, bonds or high-yield? jim: bonds. guy: bonds. margaret: high-yield. jonathan: we will wrap it up there. see you next friday. from new york, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ these days families want to be connected 24/7. that's why at comcast we're continuing to make our services more reliable than ever. like technology that can update itself. an advanced fiber-network infrustructure. new, more reliable equipment for your home. and a new culture built around customer service. it all adds up to our most reliable network ever. one that keeps you connected to what matters most. ♪ >> he has unveiled the apple bought an apple music people's largest acquisition in history. he taken on issues like the environment, philanthropy, equality, and education. he stood up to president obama on user privacy and maintains and i want president trump despite the disagreement on climate change.

and a decision from bank of england. r round of earnings highlighted by the world biggest company, apple, and, of course, the u.s. payrolls report just around the corner. still with us to discuss is colin robertson, andrew chorlton, and marilyn watson. marilyn, i want to begin with you. drawing on your experience with the bank of england win -- in years gone by, what are we expecting from the boe next week? why is the idea of a rate hike even up for discussion? marilyn: certainly the last monetary policy decision was not unanimous. it was a 5-3 decision. inflation is running above the 2% target. that being said, i think recently inflation if anything has surprised to the downside. there's a lot of uncertainty obviously around the state of the economy going forward and economic growth in relation to brexit. so, we don't think that the bank of england is going to act anytime soon. in fact, if anything, we are actually long yields. but there has been a huge amount of disagreement and concern around the inflation profile, but

jim: bank of england my head by a hair. guy: bank of england by sheer accident. margaret: ecb. where is the highest risk -- bunds or high-yield? guest: bunds. bunds. guy: bunds. margaret: high-yield. jonathan: we will wrap it up there. see you next friday. from new york, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. another global cyber attack causes havoc. most u.s. banks ace the fed's stress test. the gop postpones a vote on health care reform. european markets try to stay in sync with central banks. >> the euro and markets have reacted very strongly to a speech by draghi. >> his comments now today in sintra suggest that august 3 is going to be quite a tricky meeting. scarlet: italy commits billions to save two banks. the country's finance minister explains the deal in an exclusive conversation. >> it is not a bailout. everything was done by the rules. scarlet: china preaches openness at the world economic foru

been aggressively pricing from central bank to central-bank, rather it's the bank of england or federaleserve. across the board, excavations increased on the back of the central banks. do we now have a market that may be a little bit more in line with the reality of the direction of these central tanks -- central banks, this week? guest: i think the central banks will maintain dovish posture. they are concerned about rattling the markets. we have seen this pattern before where they have strong talk and week action. i think it's a military reaction to the market but it will not be a material change in rates. i think it's the beginning of an upswing. jonathan: my colleagues pointed out we have this strange emerging paradox where inflation expectations are diminishing or rolling over. yet central banks redefining, recalibrate their reaction functions. how delete make sense of that? guest: it's certainly puzzling. i have a chart that looks at the five-year forward inflation rates and in the eurozone as compared to where the bond has been trading. if you take a look at the last two weeks or

that is the kind of bank of england we have. different discussion because of the economy and credit. maybe because of our overindulgence in cars and mortgages. let's talk about the european central bank. any bund traders up there, listen to this. you have been complacent about your long positions and shaken from your tour poor. how was an aggressive move, we fully priced for any nuance within the european central bank of for the next six months, 4.5%. steven: it will be known as the centrist shot. -- shock or scare. manus: i like centrist shock. trouble is with these zero tendency bond market is that it does not take much to shake them. i have asked the question what could possibly go wrong with the bond market. everyone was expecting inflation to stay will which it probably will do. everyone knows the ecb is cornering the bond market, they are running out. it is only a matter of months andre they have to alter -- as they change the rules. there has been the safe haven that came from the french election. ,hat could possibly go w

the bank of england has target of 2% but in the short—term looks like we'll going to see this as it issome. let's ta ke causing some pain for some. let's take you back to those flash floods we have been reporting in cornwall, in coverack on the lizard peninsula. flash floods. the fire service say that there were life—threatening incidents. we heard the coast guard helicopter was rescuing people from their properties and we can talk on their properties and we can talk on the line to katie wainwright. hello, sorry it is carla wainwright. sorry. just explain what you have witnessed this evening. about lunchtime, i could see the sea was getting choppy and there was a storm coming in. it didn't really kick off until about 3pm. it literallyjust came over like a mass of mist, and the restau ra nt like a mass of mist, and the restaurant area has windows although they round and between 3pm at a:30pm could see anything beyond here, and we had massive hailstones coming down the size of 50p piece coins. it wasn't until a sort of cleared up at a:30pm and we could see to the other side of coverack,

. >> bank of england policymaker says u.k. useholds should prepare for tighter policy at one point. in an interview with the guardian, he says the currently giving. policy does not have to stay on hold because of brexit negotiations. today is the 10th anniversary of the last time the bank of england raised rates. the institute directors says theresa may selection disappointment has given business leaders greater leverage to lobby for soccer brexit. -- software brexit. -- softer brexit. to attractlooking talented and skilled labor. meansg ties with qatar the latest developments. qatar'ss received answers for the demands list. qatar's credit outlook has been cut to negative by moody's which thed the risk from list. that is according to four russian government officials, one saying any further supply reductions so soon after the existing agreement was suspended will hurt the existing market. on july 24. the federal reserve could give some clues about reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet before another rate hike. policymakers l

the bank of england or e.c.b.? hanged radically in the couple of weeks. >> e.c.b. >> e.c.b. >> boe. jonathan: u.s. high yield or german bonds, high risk? >> high yield. >> high yield. but you are paying for it better. >> bonds. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us. thank you very much to our guests. from new york city that's it for , us. we'll see you next friday at 12:00 new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. the payroll is friday. from new york, this is bloomberg "real yield". [wind whistling] [metal squeaking and scraping] ashlee: the year was 2047, and this is all that was left. ♪ ashlee: the great space wars between the muskavarians and the bezosites had depleted the earth of all its natural resources. the bitcoin virus and uber's robot chauffeurs had finished the job. the only signs that humans had ever been here were the ramshackle buildings and the windmills atep

we don't think that the bank of england is going to act anytime soon. g, we are actually long. there's certainly a huge amount of disagreement and concern around the inflation profile, but so far we are seeing that it's not too concerning for the bank having one. jonathan: i thought this was really straightforward. you except inflation spikes in the short-term and support the outlook. we are not taking a leave from the mervyn king playbook. andrew: i think if there's one country in the developed world that should risk inflation running hot given what the country has to face it the next 18-24 months, it's the u.k. i find it astonishing that it's even a question to be honest with you. we have enough potential risks on the horizon and using monetary policy is absolutely appropriate. jonathan: your call on guilds and staying long, what are the pillars that is based on at the moment? marilyn: economic growth is remaining relatively robust. again, it has proven better than a lot of people expected. on the other hand, we are seeing relatively high inflation. we

does that put in the notion that the bank of england will be hiking rates anytime soon? best guess is think the bank of england will be reluctant to hike rates unless they have very strong data. here is the reason, they are in situations with brexit -- i will grant you, the banks, the savings institutions, they want to boost their deposits so they can make loans. that is true also in the u.s. that is the pressure to raise rates. to rely strictly on the normal set of economic numbers right now, realizing what they are staring ahead at with brexit. and the gradual weakening of their economy as people adjust their own operations, particularly noticeable in the city. the bank of england will need something solid to raise rates. i think it will be a little bit more cautious than you would otherwise expect. mark: does the ecb have something solid to start the pathway to policies normalization. look at the spanish and french gdp data today, can they start that, even without inflation anywhere near their goal of just below 2%? dan: that is a tough one, mark. i think one of the b

why would the bank of england hiking at the scenario? ood to have you on the program. chinext -- .ordan rochester of nomura manus: novartis, amid early signs of a revival. we will talk to the ceo next on bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back. bloomberg daybreak europe, 7:18 in london. euro stocks 50, german ten-year yields and the july market. all of those featured on this graphic we have. just a snapshot of where we are. we are expected to open weaker on the european equity markets. those cries when you consider the headlines around health care in the u.s., perhaps there is still some trump expectation in markets and rolling through as we get disappointments like overnight on health care. this is the dubai equity market for you. come by .3% -- down by three point -- .3%. juliet has your business flash. manus: -- juliette: toshiba shares have soared in tokyo trading as greenlight capital revealed it took a stake in the conglomerate during the second quarter. wagering the firm is toshiba shares will rise once it exits its money-losing contracts

the fsa and the bank of england are leading the world, i think, bank of england are leading the world pushing innovation and regulation to try and drive competition and ultimately improvout comes for customers, so we are at the fore front, but other countries will follow. tom, it is really nice to see you. thank you for coming in. best of luck. keep us posted. ask here is a tip from one of the chief executives that we have been grilling. sukhinder singh is the head of the whisky exchange, one of the uk's largest online retailers of spirits and wines. live your passion. there can be nothing better than taking your hobby or your interest and turning it into a business. my brother and myself we grew up in the business just surrounded by these interesting coloured bottles and spirits and i guess it caught our imagination. when your business is your passion, there is nothing more satisfying than coming into work every day and living and breathing what you enjoy the most. your staff can see, you know, the passion and the interest in you. you still need an element of business acumen and a bu

no easy answer for the bank of england, unfortunately. e getting out of the bank of england is almost a reflection of that? guest: yes. guy: i am not saying its contract, it serves to be contrived in that it tries to take all the boxes at the same time. guest: again, i am not big on conspiracy there is, but do have some members are doing for rate increases when you have sterling on the trajectory that it was on is probably not entirely unwelcome. but it's quite another stretch to argue that they will actually follow through on that and i believe they will. rough is going to stay around. we are going to talk about the fed. still to come, italy's president says, do not expect an election this year. more on that interview and more here on the market open. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ 9:24 in berlin this morning, the sun is welcome, it rained a lot last week, let's put it that way, in berlin. it is drying out now. the markets this morning, a little bit more positive in terms of the euro dollars, trading at 1.07. plenty more things to think about. he

as long as wage inflation doesn't pick up the bank of england will be hitting their arget going forward. >> i think the bank of england, recognizing domestic inflation remaining high and the global inflation story is not within its control. it is your turn, it is fiscal policy, it is the direction of travel that now needs to be the eal focus. stock climbed in the wake of another successful day. amazon isn't revealing exact numbers, but it generated about $1 billion in revenue. >> the biggest day in sales they have ever had. hey did a billion dollars in revenue in $2.5 billion gross merchandise volume. which was a pretty fast growth for them, for the small businesses selling on prime day. they added the most prime members in a single day in the history of the company. prime is the biggest driver of the retail businesses growth ver the long-term. >> the brazilian president had the support to defeat congressional motions that would put him on trial for alleged corruption. the case comes as the former president sentenced to nine and a half years for money laundering. let teal with lula firs

the bank of england is just 0.25%. record low interest rate. the bank of england isjust 0.25%. h the average debt reaching £51,000. that's a lot of barjobs. thank you. it was one of the key promises from theresa may in the wake of the grenfell tower tragedy — that all survivors would be rehoused in quality accommodation by today. despite that pledge only nine offers have been accepted and many families are still living in hotels. so, three weeks after that devastating fire, why are so many people still not living in a place they can call home? in a moment we'll speak to eleanor kelly, from the grenfell response team, but first our reporter frankie mccamley went to meet one man who lived in the tower with his ten—year—old daughter. sid—ali and his daughter hayam and his wife lived on the 15th floor of g re nfell tower. they've now been living in a hotel for three weeks. it's not comfortable and it doesn't feel like home. i miss my room and all the memories i had, my baby albums, i miss them a lot. my daughter... she's losing her focus because this isn't her place, not her room, n

it's also the first bank of england note to have raised dots, to help blind and visually impaired peopley of devotees at today's ceremony, the note is a moment to cherish. i like it. i like all the little touches that they've got going on of winchester cathedral and the quill. so over all, marks out of ten for the £10? a ten out of ten, for the £10 note! some people have needed a bit of "persuasion" over the jane austen image on the new note. compare it to the original portrait it was taken from, it's had critics talking of an austen airbrush. howeverjane austen looked, when she died, 200 years ago today, £10 would have been worth around £1,000. what you might call a good fortune. the new jane austen tenner comes into circulation in september. a stylish addition to a catalogue of work universally acknowledged to be priceless. duncan kennedy, bbc news, in winchester. time for a look at the weather. here's chris fawkes. for many of us another glorious afternoon with temperatures surging. we have seen highs of 28 degrees in a number of spots, hampshire, dorset into anglesey, western areas o

anna: where's the story around the bank of england head? eakness and u.k. economy, we for have had hawkish talks from the bank of england. they haven't voted to unwind the extra stimulus at the time of the brexit vote. you expect them to? we'll see a rate hike to get rid of? terms of the hawkish repricing lately, it might have been overdone. there is a quite dovish core around carney. we don't see that changing in light of expectations. we do not expect we hiking anytime soon. manus: there is this cracking story we have in terms of broke -- post-brexit u.k. trade deal. , we areting point is told over the weekend by donald, get ready for a great trade deal. that will be perhaps a political win for the u.k. if that moves forward. terms of our relationship, the trading relationships for the u.k., would this help the economic story? a new trade deal with the west versus the larger one they want to get them with europe? wei: it is important to pay attention to what gets done rather than what's get -- what gets said. a lot of things are -- >> no t

steve: it's really just looking at what the bank of england has the balance off. r than targeted and probably will run a little bit further. the economy seem somewhat weak. the bank has a certain amount of ability to ignore the increase in inflation. he is saying that maybe that balance is not quite as dominant as it was and we have obviously seen a number of mpc members and perhaps more in the future saying that trade-off is not really working anymore. i think that would be a mistake . anna: steve barrow stays with us and so does leslie on the program. still ahead on this fourth of july, happy fourth of july fewer somebody. a look at how commodity prices are impacting the cost of the holiday barbecue in the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: anna: this is "bloomberg markets." good news for americans breaking up the grill for the fourth of july celebrations. retail beef prices are down from last year's holiday weekend, allowing the most popular independence day meet to complete with pork and poultry. production is rising for a second straight year, hoping to

guy: you expect a 2017 hike from the bank of england? >> the bank of england made it quite clear.g as the data holds then we do think august is more likely than not. guy: mark cudmore, you are in no way convinced of this. >> absolutely not. i think there is a chance of a hike in august. i would agree that the jobs data is really key. i think it is very much about the earnings data. but if the earnings fall below t2%, it shows the widening gap. i know inflation is getting out of control. 's argumentd jordan as to why the bank of england will want to tighten, but i think it will stall a little further. even if they do hike in august, it will only create short-term respite. the growth reductions are starting to fall again. >> it is a good point, but the wage data is very volatile and we have to smooth it. then we do it year on year. within the details themselves, the last two months seem positive. better get zero or even month-to-month this time around. it is quite a solid number for the bank of england to be more confident. on your point, you're right. what's going on in a cyclical

if you think about the warning shots coming from the bank of england, about how much we're spending hererms of the car financing. anna: we get numbers from nine miller just from daimler and they don't look -- from daimler and they don't look great. side, $1.2he revenue billion. that is just a -- i'm sorry, 41.2 billion. second quarter revenue, that is pretty much back in line. ebit comes in. we are seeing whether they will confirm in regard to the meeting . the whole industry is plagued. there is the net income number, 2.5 one billion. in terms of outlook, 2017, they see significant growth. they have gone for a much sportier lineup. they are trying to get ahead of the emissions scandal. cars, they'reel are going to spend 220 million pounds -- euros, excuse me on making that fix. mercedes-benz, 2.4 billion. anna: let's take a broader look at the markets early this morning. nejra cehic joins us. nejra: the rally and commodities fueling some risk appetite in the asian equities session. let's take a look at the brakes out here. you have tech stocks underperforming, but outperforming, yet ene

is doing and the bank of england is doing. and even more so what the u.s. data tells us. nathan: what is on your bloomberg now? >> i'm looking at the shape of the 2/10 curve. people have been talking about the yield curve flat engine the u.s. there have been historic periods. the fed was actually tightening policy to slow down the economy and kill inflation. today, actually the yield curve has been flattening since 2011. aside from a small blip that we had in 2013, we have been in a flattening trend since 2011. i don't think that the fed, which has been flat lining, the fed really isn't trying to tighten policy now. they are trying to remove excess accommodation. once they move above 3% san francisco, we ever get there, that is tightening. jonathan: what we have is the change in the way the curve is flattening. it was an aggressive long at the long end. long duration. now we have a bear flatter in. how does that shape your thinking? >> the front send pretty much pinned to the point that it is going to follow what the fed is telling it and make that assessment. the back end

nonetheless, we are watching what is happening down the road with the bank of england with great levels because it is trying to think about how it deals u.k. was the top priority. with the u.k. it seems to indicate some policy tightening. 10 years to the day since the bank last raised rates. how many more years will you wait until the next one? mouhammed: the bank of england is working on the assumption that brexit is going to need to affect economic activity or even a recession. they clearly got it wrong. the economy was robust and delivered a strong performance. in terms of how long it will be be until the rates are risen, a year ago it was 2.5% and it is currently at 2.9%. unemployment is 5.6%. currently, unemployment is much lower at 4.5%. consumer borrowing which is a big thing for the bank of england was growing around 2.5% and at 10%. all the conditions i have described would warrant a rate hike now. there is this underlying assumption that brexit will lead to a softer economic activity which is not necessarily the case. guy: why? mouhammed: businesses are still investing. up and

we saw a split in the vote and it looked like the committee that sets interest rates for the bank of englandrates because they fear is thatjust put a bigger squeeze on people's cost of living and stops them spending because of interest rates go up, mortgage costs go up and so on, the bank will be very cautious about doing that. as a result, because it looks less likely that we will see an interest rate rise in august, sterling has fallen in value since we got that inflation figure this morning, down quite steeply against the euro but to a lesser extent against the dollar. not keeping pace with rising inflation means we are seeing tougher times for households and that will impact on household spending, in the high street and in our shops and restaurants. what dant is happening with inflation? would you expect the rate to continue to fall? we think we would expect to see inflation... we think this is some of the impact of rising costs on business. there is overall comfort in these numbers, if you look at the impact of the weaker exchange rate, it has led to higher import costs and materials fo

is the bank of england making a mistake? was it too hasty last summer in trying the kitchen sink? should it have raised interest rates earlier further down the road? one of the things last week that the bank of england announced was measures to control the growth in consumer credit. there are these challenges for the bank of england, high inflation, some indication of us long economy. that makes it very difficult as to how they can tighten policy. that is an issue for all the major central banks. we have talked about the fed, economic picture is mixed. inflation is lower. pulling back a bit. debate amongst investors and economists as to whether the fed is making a policy error here, how far they may be able to go in tightening policy. it's interesting times in speak. bank very high on the agenda. mark: thanks for joining us, neil mackinnon. vonnie: speak coming up, oil ris u.s. production shows signs of slowing. tune in tomorrow at 8:00 eastern time. alix steel, carol massar, and matt miller will host the boston pops fireworks spectacular. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from londo

the bank of england should be forward-looking. rise in inflation is squeezing real wages, slowing the economy down, and as long as wage inflation doesn't pick up, the bank of england will be hitting their target. ork: are you a broadbentite are you going to go for the hawks? >> i think you can make a very good case why we need a rate hike relatively early. ,here is a broad expectation somehow the consumer benefits. the consumer is still paying 6% or 7% to borrow money. a very significant difference from the 25 bit official rate. the very low official rate is leading to asset price inflation that makes life very difficult in the housing market. it is also not leading to fresh investment. i suspect the government and the bank of england would rather see more investment in the real economy to solve the productivity problem. that isn't going to be solved by low interest rates. i think the bank of england, recognizing domestic inflation remains high, and the global inflation story is not within its control, should be thinking about rais

you have to say these figures underscore the dilemma that split the bank of england over whether to raiseerest rates. the bank of england governor is not ready to call for higher rates, though he sees the pressures to do so. he says there is reason to see it moving in the direction -- but the decision ise tricky at the moment. >> the bank of england should be forward-looking. the rise in inflation is squeezing real wages. as long as wage inflation doesn't pick up the bank of england will be hitting their target going forward. >> they recognize the mystic inflation remains high and the global inflation story is not within its control. is your turn, it is fiscal policy, it is the direction of travel that now needs to be the real focus. >> another successful prime day. amazon isn't revealing exact numbers, but it generated about $1 billion in revenue. >> the biggest day in sales they have ever had. they did a billion dollars in revenue in $2.5 billion gross merchandise volume. which was a pretty fast growth for them, for the small businesses selling on prime day. they added the most prime me

- warrent a rate sayse data at the moment and what the bank of england is interpreting, a big questionbout whether the easing on extraordinary conditions is still warranted. the bank of england says given the resilience of the economy, that easing, the past easing is not worthy. i think we need to move away from this he said, she set of the central bank which is so popular and look at the underlying trend. you hit the nail on the head, that cap is not something that will fade, it will probably extent and the data will continue to soften. we do not think the data will warrent tightening from the bank of england side. mark: moore to come on what to expect from the ecb minutes tomorrow. ater, monte paschi givien lifeline from the tying government, why something's the restructuring plan is a turning point for the bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton, 60 minutes away from the european close. let's carry on chatting and talk about what is happening today. let's talk about the ecb. mario draghi, did we

the bank of england is requesting evidence from consumer credit providers they are properly protectedst losses companies are the first line of defense against risks of consumer credit losses >>> let's talk more about retail and i want to talk more about the pressure that is currently being faced by the retail sector in the u.s. and europe that's according ing ting to o guest, beth pickens, managing director at william blair. what are the differences when it comes to the public or, you know, private activity by some of the retailers, uk versus u.s. >> sure. good morning the first difference is the ability to simply get out the door so we've seen terrific emergence in new growth companies in the uk and u.s. over the last decade as the consumer and retail sector that been largely disrupted. the difference is what has been the outcome and the end of the road large exit at the end of the growth trajectory or to market the next phase of expansion. so given that today's theme is independence, we'll compare u.s. to uk and say that first of all what is the difference and why do we care we care

from the bank of england's point of view, you could argue they have used because inflation has gone upt that way. the bank probably does. from that point of view, ground as some sort of modest rate rise over the next 12 months. it is a case of wait and see to see how the economy starts. anna: thank you very much. datta data -- tapan stays with us. global growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back, everybody. "bloomberg daybreak: europe," this monday. little bit of sun creeping through the clouds. mario draghi, very mindful of anything he says on thursday, what that does to the euro, how that might strengthen it. we look ahead to the ecb meeting with that in mind. let us get the bloomberg business flash. here is juliette saly. juliette: thank you. easyjet confirmed its ceo is stepping down to take up the leadership of itv. carolyn mccall will take up the role of itv ceo. the search for her successor has already started. the barclays case picks up in london today with the ex-ceo. and the other men charged with fraud. to payments and loans to qatar. at a hearing this month, the four

think about the bank of england and the federal reserve. hese banks in a traditional inflation context, hang on a second wire the thinking of raising rates. issue is theresk in the background. we don't necessarily see it much. things in theme inflation context. i think that is also a background issue. francine: it does seem when you look at this which is the citigroup, global risk aversion macro index. going tosk aversion is be crisis average. is this make sense to you? peter: the question is does it have complacency or does it reflect what's going on? there are sense that balances in the world economy being masked by this fairly lax monetary policy. it monetary policy were not to tighten, to what extent is that going to cause some of the issues we have been talking about over the course of the last five or six years to resurrect themselves? we saw quite a sharp spike in 2011 and a bit of a spike, those are primarily -- issues. we are not worried about the u.s. anymore, but certainly .urope is in an area of concern the ecb is mindful of the

the bank of england revealed the design on the 200th anniversary of the author's death. circulation in september. tomorrow, the bbc will publish its annual report which, for the first time, will include details of how much the corporation pays its stars. the government has forced the disclosure, which will affect presenters on salaries of more than £150,000. the bbc already publishes full details of executive pay and expenses. our media editor, amol rajan, reports. they have broadcast to the nation on a regular basis, presenting shows that still command an audience of millions. tomorrow, for the first time, we get a clear indication of how much they are paid. the bbc‘s annual report will include the salaries of all broadcasters paid over £150,000 by the bbc. a result of tense negotiations over its royal charter agreement. tony hall, the direct general of the bbc, was against the move. i don't think it's right that we should have names against salaries for stars for presenters and others. i believe that would be inflationary, which i think would be bad for licence fee pay

the final design of the new plastic £10 note is going to be unveiled by the boss of the bank of englandom september. you'll soon be able to judge the punctuality of your train journey to the minute. that's thanks to a shake up by the industry's trade body. at the moment, a train is said to be "on time" if it arrives within ten minutes of the scheduled arrival. but now punctuality will be measured much more tightly. let us have a quick look at the markets. not a particular pretty picture. the ftse has been giving up earlier gains despite the fall in the pound which helps companies sell more overseas. the fall in sterling has happened because of the surprise fall in the inflation rate, making it much less likely the bank of england will raise interest rates. the euro is also trading higher. simon. good to see you! cannot be said of all your guests! thank you very much. as schools prepare to close for the holidays, mps are warning that as many as 3 million children could go hungry this summer. some local councils in deprived areas of scotland and wales provide free meals for children outsi

mark: a great bloomberg article today, the hawks circling over the bank of england may have gotten their clipped. it's a wonderful piece in the wake of today's data point. factories, builders cutting output, you have the trade deficit widening. you have been consistent in your worsening, data is and that probably does not warrant the need for a rate hike now. does the consistency of the poor data push back against some of the more hawkish messages hawks are the hawks. we have two of them now on the mpc and i'm not sure they're both will shift. the swing voters will look at this data and it will give them pause. their view, that rates may have to rise in the near future, is conditional on the data improving, and the brexit negotiations going quite smoothly. on both of those fronts, it's too early to say, things are panning out the way the bank of england hopes they will. i think the data today is probably something that will keep the swing voters in the leading rates unchanged can't, but i'm not sure it will shift the hawks. for: richard jones bloomberg markets. by the way, richard is in

inflation more than 396 surprised to see inflation more than 3% by october, but will this make the bank of england of england raise interest rates? well, it is interesting and it isa rates? well, it is interesting and it is a global phenomenon the employment rate in the uk is very low. it is the lowest since the 19705, low. it is the lowest since the 1970s, but real wage income is the lowest in 150 yea rs 1970s, but real wage income is the lowest in 150 years and that's the financial crisis and that's also the negative impact on real wages of the brexit vote and the pound going down. the other global phenomenon is stock markets giding heights. we saw another record close on wall street yesterday. what's going on? how long can it last, do you think? well, we have had an eight bull market so far since the 2009 low, the american stock market is up 260% over that period, but mull markets don't die of all old age. what kills off a market like this is inflation and it is wage inflation, when you get a lot of wage inflation coming through the system, the central banks will say the economy is too strong a

this afternoon, the governor of the bank of england gave his reaction to the figures.to put too much weight on any specific data point. the bigger picture remains the same. the reason why inflation is above the 2% target is because of the depreciation in the pound, following the referendum, or associated with the referendum. and that's a judgement of the market. we'll see in the fullness of time whether that judgment is right, but it's a judgment of the market, about the relative incomes in this country as a consequence of those decisions, over the medium term. this carpet factory in kidderminster is an example of a growing business dealing with that weaker pound. it means it has to pay more than it once did to buy the yarn that goes into its carpets from abroad. it has adapted to that, and more of its yarn now comes from british sheep. that has helped it to trim its costs and keep its price rises contained. our prices have had to go up. we've increased prices by around 2% this year, and that's been a natural consequence of increased wage costs, yarn costs and energy c

the final design of the new plastic £10 note is going to be unveiled by the boss of the bank of englandble from september. you'll soon be able to judge the punctuality of your train journey to the minute! that's thanks to a shake—up by the industry's trade body. at the moment a train is said to be "on time" if it arrives within ten minutes of the scheduled arrival. but now punctuality will be measured much more tightly. the markets. not performing particularly well. the ftse been giving up its gains. despite the fall in the pound which helps companies sell more overseas. that fall in sterling has happened because the surprise fall in the inflation rate makes it less likely that the bank of england is going to raise interest rates. banking stocks have listen leading the stock market an award winning cheese maker is. offering! 3 regard ef £500 7— — to track down the thieves who got away with stealing two blocks of cheddar cheese from a country show. richard clothier, a third generation cheddar—maker and managing director of wyke farms in somerset whose cheese was taken explained what happ

you have to say these figures underscore the dilemma that split the bank of england over whether to raiset rates. the bank of england deputy governor says he is not ready to vote for higher rates, though he sees the pressures to do so. he says there is reason to see the committee moving in the direction, but there were still a lot of imponderables, saying they make the decision tricky at the moment. >> the bank of england should be forward-looking. the rise in inflation is squeezing real wages. it is slowing the economy down. as long as wage inflation doesn't pick up, the bank of england will be hitting their target going forward. >> they realize domestic inflation remains high and the global inflation story is not within its control. since the thinking about raising -- should be thinking about raising rates. it is your turn, it is fiscal policy, it is the direction of travel in terms of encouraging investment that now needs to be the real focus. >> amazon's stock climbed after another successful prime day. amazon isn't revealing exact numbers, but it generated about $1 billion in revenue

for now, the pressure on the bank of england to tame inflation by raising interest rates has lessenedy, they're still betting a rise in interest rates will be needed, but not until next march. andy verity, bbc news, kidderminster. our business editor simon jack is here. does this evenings for consumers somewhat? a little bit, but we should make no mistake. wages are still going up less quickly than prices are so the squeeze is still on. at what is happening here is that this inflationary pressure we have seen has accelerated a little bit. it all started after the brexit vote, when we saw the pound fall which meant that all important goods went up very sharply in price. imaginea snake went up very sharply in price. imagine a snake swallowing a large animal. it takes its time to get down the system. the question is now we have seen this goal down, does this mean that inflation has peaked and that bulge in prices has worked its way out of the system? it may have, but we may still have some pressure so have, but we may still have some pressure so it is not impossible that prices may go up

in terms of the bank of england's target, it is likely will be about that target in 20818 but even ife just see the emergence of signs about reversing, i think that is good news. francine: actually, this is something we are seeing a little bit here in the chart. let me talk you through it. this is the u.k. one year inflation swap. we title this, it shows the u.k. inflation expectations are fading from 2017 and that overshadows the retail price pick up. are we worrying too much about inflation? iaian: i have been very surprised of what the bank of and what has been saying. yes, near-term inflation has risen. but it is the wrong sort of inflation and we now have negative real wages in the u.k. and i think the bank of england will look through this and it will definitely be looking through this as they did other times post the financial crisis. they were still doing quantitative easing, extended it when inflation was above their targets and back in 2011-2012. i will be very surprised because i do think you have to look at the overall economic data. it's starting on the margin to roll ove

banks, this is a great chart showing the probability of a rate hike here in the u.k.. faster than the ecb. the probability over the coming year. there is a 50% chance that the bank of englandise interest rates. this comes after the hawkish comments by mark carney this last week. hawkish comments when he basically reversed his earlier comments. shifted expectations. arney is worth -- carney has history of not following through rates.threats of hiked it is believed the bank of england will raise rates within the next year. vonnie: the central bank tendencies into be bearish u.s. dollar and bearish u.s. bonds. 0.4% good forut the euro and the yen. steeper yield curve. almost 97 basis points. this is that the first page of our emerging markets. reversing some of those trends you have seen up past the election with the pace of trading at 18.32 and the ruble was just under 60. it was above 60 at one point. we must keep an eye on those as crude oil rises. here is taylor riggs. >> oil has been the story. when you start with an intraday chart here. you can see this big spite after oil and then tories were released. there has been a larger than expected drop in inventory. it is push

sterling, there is a hawkish stance from the bank of england. ced downside potential, but sterling has bad news in the pricing perspective. this is about a minority government to sterling. if the market considers the direction of the brexit potentially be disadvantaging the u.k. economy, that would be reflected in a weaker pan. we're watching the inflation data. it is suggesting things did recover after the initial move lower. saying, actually, investment is tapering off again because of this uncertainty about what is going to happen in a year and a half. of thethis is a rerun financial crisis in terms of time lags, leadtimes to the reality in the data. i have asked everybody this week fromgards to their take the bank of england. they are going to be macro prudential road. the data is unlikely to sway mark carney to the camp of three, the three people who voted for a rate hike. the data isn't that robust or strong, therefore, perhaps i should move away from the discount i applied to sterling. peoplene of those three is from forbes. she warned us

i think it helps the bank of england in its dichotomy i didn't think the bank of england would hike this does help for the moment. >> i like people, they talk about the antidote as well as the stats in this environment it doesn't feel like a rate hike environment in the uk. i know inflation is building up. but people, to me, seem like they're stretched quite a lot. you have the j.a.m. story, just about managing, you have inflation at 2.9, now 2.6. people don't feel we should be in a rite hike environment it feels like the economy is precipitous with the back drop of brexit. >> it's an environment where people are struggling with high prices they don't have the ability to get the wage growth on the back end of it. wage prices shouldn't be getting passed along i think some members are right to talk slightly hawkishly to get things anchored, but it's not a good thing if we needed to hike rates >> how do you feel about the broader uk economy we're stuttering on the growth rate stuttering on wage growth. we have a chancellor who says 1% is fine for public sector works, though that wrangles wi

the market is overpricing bank of england. oward tightening. sterling versus the euro is a much more important exchange rate. there is room to fall without triggering a rate hike. sterling has room for stability versus the euro. tore is more room for that hold run current levels. caroline: all eyes are on the trade relationship with the european union. david and daniel, great to have both of your opinions. if you have a bloomberg terminal, i want to bring you to check out the tv function. interact with us directly. bloomberg. ♪ ♪ david: this is bloomberg. i am david westin. the chinese president and japanese prime minister met on saturday in germany seeking to overcome years of rocky ties as they figure out how to deal with the threat of a nuclear north korea. joining us to take us through authorions is a prolific having written to the books on north korea. welcome back to the program. give us some insight into north korea and what might move them when it comes to this quest for nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver t