>> it is rational, but more so the bank of japan side. mportant thing was to avoid a market reaction. yen jumps becoming higher and some people are disappointed. this is what the bank of japan was hoping for. tom: how do you see the boj steering policy? where do you see the rates? >> normalization is one and done. this is a clear signal and shows some things will have to change. bank of japan does not want to be restrictive. other banks are more dovish. boj wants to support the economy. not many restrictive steps, but costs will go up, interest rates positive again. government policy will have to change and the yen will probably stabilize. tom: do you see repatriation of japanese funds? if not on this move, then through this year? >> this would be what would drive the yen. i do not expect it. companies have been investing. what they are doing is not about investing actively, but they have been building operations in the u.s. with major investment and income generated overseas. i do not think anyone is interested in holding both bonds when

for bank of japan normalization to be a driver of yen strength we need to see much more resilience injapanese economy and more confidence that the bank of japan will have to do much more than what is currently priced in to contain inflation. haidi: particularly to get to the point where it starts impacting household sentiment. we have robust wage gains and inflation. when do you expect to see that translate into the lifting of animal spirits? we know it is hard to get out of all of these years of a deflationary mindset. izumi: that is where some of the uncertainty lies. in the ongoing spring wage negotiations corporate's agreed to the highest level of base pay hikes. we are probably headed to 3% hikes in fiscal 24. that should lift nominal wage growth. combined with the slow down in goods inflation, we think real wages will turn positive by the summer. i do think there will be a lift to consumer sentiment. we will see consumer spending recover. i think it is not going to be the boom -- japanese consumers are still cautious. we have to see how consumers react to the increase in wages.

bank of japan watchers think it will happen tomorrow. gs the bank of japan will raise interest rates. he think they will scrap yield curve control. these are the short positions building and it again despite expectations you look at the rate increase and the fed is a big factor in that particularly if they revive forecast in terms of dot plots from 3 to 2 fewer cuts coming from the fed, higher for longer. pressure on the yen even as the bank of japan looks to raise interest rates. here is the expectation around the federal reserve. you have gone from 107, expectations you might get seven cuts to expectations you will get fewer than three. it is a provision some fed forecast that ties into the bank of japan. let's have a look at the 10 year, because treasury markets are reacting to these expectations, stickier inflation data out of the u.s. and commentary on fed officials and markets and treasure is reacting with the selloff last week particularly on 2 and 10, and you saw a 20 basis point moves. money moving out on expectations you will ge

bank of ja an has reacting? yes, actually, the bank of japan has been _ reacting? , the bank of japan has been guiding _ reacting? yes, actually, the bank of japan has been guiding the - reacting? yes, actually, the bank of japan has been guiding the markets| japan has been guiding the markets so that they would eventually exceed the negative environment. this was kind of well expected although they are not sure which particular meeting. so in terms of the market reaction, the japanese equities were up, which is sustaining the positive momentum so far, and the bond yields were down a little bit and actually, the japanese yen has fallen versus the japanese yen has fallen versus the us dollar and other currencies, because as i say, it's just a baby step in the bank ofjapan actually range —— but the bank ofjapan say they will start at a maintain an easy military environments up and so typically when you see an interest rate rise, it is versus the dollar which has actually been relatively strong, due to costs in the us. after nearly two decades of this fairly loose mone

i think the risks are skewed to be more gradual based on recent comments by the bank of japan officials that the dollar-yen may be struggling to sustain a recent rally of the bank of japan policy tightening. haidi: the other major event we are watching is the ongoing national people's congress. pretty ambitious gdp number. not a great deal of detail or even intention around policy and seamless support. does this have implications when it comes to playing through proxies like the aussie dollar? carol: yes, so we have had the national people's congress earlier this week. pretty ambitious 5% target without a plan to achieve the ambitious target. and i think the markets are also pretty skeptical about whether or not the chinese government can actually realize the target so without further stimulus, i think the target might be a bit hard to achieve and they will likely speak to some more weakness in the aussie dollar in the near term. and we are targeting the aussie dollar to fall further to 64 u.s. cents in the coming weeks. on top of the slowdown in the chinese economy, the rba is also abo

so i would say some of the consumption names, the banks and the soe's in general. haidi: there is a big question mark over japan at the moment in terms of where the equity rally goes. how endangered and correlated is that relationship depending on how the bank of japan proceeds from here? we have been seeing that the bank of japan is very likely to be tightening policies. so that has always been a key risk for japan equities. but we see this risk as an opportunity for investors to be adding to positions. the improvement in corporate governance and valuation is still attractive. those are key factors for a medium to long-term rally. yes, there will be hiccups and it seems that these couple of months would be a little rough with japanese equities. but at the same time they can give you opportunities. sector wise he would need to do some rotation. so we have always believed that the financial sectors, insurers, and the banks in a tightening boj environment, they can do pretty well. investors should really be looking at those. annabelle: daniel lam, head of equity strategy there. coming up, the result of japan's sp

bank of australia. take a look at the other big central bank we are focusing on. it is what we are expecting from the bank of japan. these expectations are building in terms of what we could see from the bank of japan. it is a momentous decision. most investors say it is either today or next month. perhaps that does not matter a great deal for the longer-term trajectory. we did hear reporting from the nikkei suggesting the bank of japan would end yield curve control and etf buying. that is the question of the day. so much focus on what the boj is going to be doing. internally at we are student to take bets on what time it is going to be coming out. here is the outlook we have got for u.s. stocks. overnight it is the countdown to the fed. what we are going to hear from jay powell signaling around rate cuts. . we are seeing changing expectations. june had been seen most likely until a couple days ago. that is getting priced out as are the number of cuts we can expect for 2024. in the intraday session, it was the focus on tech. we mentioned the news around alphabet with the iphone in the headlights. what i am trackin

for it to go to 135, we need a surprise from the fed or the bank of japan. haslinda: talking about china -- here comes vanke and the downgrading from moody's. this is bad news out of time when foreig dip -- this is bad news at a time when foreign investors are beginning to dip their toes. omar: what we are seeing is some developers have government ownership in them, local government, but it is significant. i don't think a major reversal will happen for that segment. at best, we see an l-shaped path. it is not a policy priority. the npc highlighted a continuation of what they are doing in terms of policy. our scenario is that there are downside economic risks for chinese growth at 5% and we think certain segments will continue to be challenged particularly the property sector. haslinda: and the yuan -- we have the likelihood of a biden and trump election at the end of the year. in 2018 at the height of u.s.-china tensions, though you want slumped -- the yuan slumps. omar: this will be the topic of intense focus for the markets especially as we get closer to th

banks are shifting to cuts. so they are on the other side of the spectrum. i think the question for the bank of japan is really, have they started to -- they are in a different situation than other central banks because of their size and balance sheet. those are two considerations when looking at their next actions. i think they have to be slow. given the structure there. it's going to be a bit of a race against the data, particularly if you get a continuation of the disinflation trend going forward. probably on balance rate hikes are easier to do than the quantitative tightening piece. and so we will have to see how that plays out. but those are things we are looking at in the moment in the context of the boj. annabelle: that was henrietta pacqeument, senior portfolio manager and head of global fixed income at all spring global investments. as we have been speaking this meeting with henrietta, we have those lines coming out from the japan currency chief. saying he is really watching the moves we are seeing a japanese yen. you are trading about the 151 mark. we have seen a lot of verbal intervention

we are also watching for the bank of japan. is will be a bit of a test, belle in terms of what we see in yen trading today. waiting on that wage negotiations, the final piece of the rate puzzle as we get the final outcomes from those talks. annabelle: yes, we are hearing actually that within the bank of japan, policymakers are split on the direction they want to take. whatever we see a move in march or in april. certainly a lot of focus on those negotiations. looking here at u.s. futures, fairly study so far, but yesterday we saw stocks climbing to a fresh record. you mentioned, of course, that cpi reading, that was the main focus for investors. swaps starting to price in a near 70% chance that the fed is going to start easing in june, pretty much because these numbers were not any big shock to traders. treasuries a bit lower in the session. oil as well, dipping actually ahead after that official report. opec saying that latest supply cut have stalled. it is really about whether countries can meet or whether they are exceeding t

the bank of japan was _ expectations for policy? ofjapan was recently bank of japan was recently adjusted its monetary policy raising interest rates for the first time in 17 years, it was a pivotal moment for the economy. 0urview a pivotal moment for the economy. our view is that going forward, the governor will be taking a very close look at the economy and signs that wages will rise higher than the growth trend of inflation at 2% which we think we are starting to see re—shoots up. that said, we are at the very beginning of japan's exit out of the last decades of inflation. the last to look out for is somewhere around 04 after september i think that will be one timing that the bank of japan may look to raise interest rates going forward. fix, to raise interest rates going forward. �* . , forward. a fairly positive outlook _ forward. a fairly positive outlook for _ forward. a fairly positive outlook for them - forward. a fairly positive outlook for them going l forward. a fairly positive - outlook for them going forward. what does the

on march 19, 2024, the boj took a big step. >> the bank of japan hasn't -- has ended negative interestt hike. >> they are scrapping the yield curve control, and they will essentially pare back their purchase of etf's. >> raising the interest rate from -0.1% to narrow 0.01% doesn't seem like much, but it does put japan back in line with other economies. we asked at the top that of japan's negative rates experiment ends, what now? well, here are some of the changes we could expect to see. first, mortgages will get more expensive for the first time in decades and interest payments on the governments more than $8 trillion of debt, which is twice the size of the country's economy, will increase. the same thing will happen in companies. it could also propel the yen higher. that means your trips to japan could get more expensive and japanese exports could take a hit as well. on the flipside, it could make investing in japan more lucrative, plus cheaper fuel and food imports are good news for japanese consumers. >> [speaking japanese] >> [speaking japanese] francine: that was bloomberg's origi

the bank of japan has ended _ the programme. the bank of japan has ended its - the programme. pan has ended its negative interest rate policy which has beenin interest rate policy which has been in place for 17 years. japan was the only nation left in the world that still kept that stance. it raised its short term policy rate target from —0.1% to between zero and zero 1%. and that's it for us here on asia business or. —— report. thanks for watching. i am julia with the catch up. our first story — only one in five nhs mental health trusts have specialists that can deal with conditions like tourettes in england and wales. that's what new research from the bbc has found. over 300,000 people in the uk are living with the condition which causes people to make sounds and movements known as tics. big artists such as billie eilish and lewis capaldi have opened up about having it. isabel is a journalist here at the bbc and was diagnosed at seven. my parents struggled to get the diagnosis but then the follow—on support was not there either. in the end, my mum had to homeschool me because

bank of japan mulling a march hike with the outcome to call. at is the redhead across the terminal. the japanese yen is at 147, paring weakness, down 3/10 of 1%. japanese yields are at 0.77 as well, a marginal move. japanese yen at 147, so bank of japan is mulling a march hike. will be hearing from the boj governor about the economy recovering as there are pockets of weakness. reporting from bloomberg that the boj is looking at a march hike ending negative rates. more details as we get it. keep across japanese assets. jill, let's get back on the details. i was interrupting you to break that redhead. views on the interest rate and with the fed should be doing? >> he is saying they need more data to make decisions. that is where february statistics come into play. interesting signals, the payroll was strong, slight uptick in unemployment and underlying data was more favorable to a gradual cooling off. the case jamie is making is the idea that data needs to be significant. do they have enough information? not yet but we will see who are the cpi pri

even removing it at this point will not bring big changes in the yield curve of japan gbp and if i could make a comment on etf bankan will likely to announce the scope of the new purchase of etf, since 2021 actually they originally stopped purchase of etf so the market impacts should be minimal and i believe bank of japan will not fit that market, they will sell their holdings and stop new purchase and announce the decision of what they will do with their holdings, 70 trillion etf holding. >> so that is significant, if they say they will not be selling, they will hold it. it should give good indication to support for the market >>. of course. bank of japan, they will have to work with other policymakers and the market estimate is that they pass their holding to outsider management at some point in the future so it is too early but they can say they make use of etf dividends from holding etf to interest payment for excess reserves in new normalized [indiscernible] >> what kind of guidance are you giving investors? how should they position their portfolios given the return to normalization? >> first we want to empha

that is the key message when it comes to the bank of japan to. will depend on what the shinto looks like on friday. it would not have been a good luck had the bank of japan tightened when it turned out the economy was still in recession. with the recession to being revised away maybe that makes much more live, but does it matter massively whether it is march or april or even later than that? no, the direction of travel is clear that tightening is coming and the bank of japan is a standout compared to other developed market central banks. annabelle: there are a few different levers you could pull on. where are they more likely to focus shifting their policy settings on first? >> i think it will be a simultaneous move, negative interest rate and yield curve control lifted at the same time. i do not think there is any particular need to be clever around the sequencing of that. there had been some speculation that yield curve control would be the first thing to go. perhaps that was more distorted, and the bank of japan has been backing away from that

paul: we also had the bank of japan summary of opinions where we saw the end of negative rates. he bank of japan board said whatever you do, don't misinterpret the end of negative rates with tightening. so some of the bank of japan rhetoric adding to this weak yen case? mark: it's valid to highlight that. they've kept up their persistent easing policy. they continue to kind of, it is still extraordinarily easy policy. they've been clear to make that. i think, though that the bank of japan will be encouraged by the fact that they did remove negative rate, it didn't cause a shock in markets. we're not even seeing the yen appreciate since that meeting. therefore i think that ultimately, the fact that we probably will continue to see depreciation on the yen over the coming months means we won't get more of b.o.j. tightening this year and the markets are currently pricing. simon flint, a colleague on our team has done a really, really exceptional analysis this week, kind of doing, revised tailor rule analysis saying if you assume gradual policy and take claims we might get as much as

tom: very interesting in terms of the potential sequencing from the bank of japan. ranfield from our mliv team, thank you very much. just crossing the lines, the governors saying they will decide policy, a little bit of softness coming through from the japanese yen. let's switch focus now. the president has warned the russian president will attack other countries if the kremlin wins its war in ukraine. because as the polish leader seeks to convince the u.s. to approve further assistance for kyiv. >> we are the nation who was enslaved by russia several times. if russia wins the war in ukraine, he will attack one more time, he will attack other states because this is russian imperialism reborn and that is why it has to be stopped, it has to be blocked, and has to be punished. this is the most important task facing the community of the west today. this community is led by the united states of america. >> mr. president, essentially was your message that if the u.s. congress fails to provide additional support to ukraine, not only could they be harming ukraine's war effor

some of the investors are trimming banks already saying the bank of japan tweaks are pretty much praised by now, but some actually say there is more to go for these financial stocks depending on how far you think that the bank of japan is going to raise rates this year. another attractive sector would be the domestic demand led sectors including retail, ray rice -- rail ways and every sectors because they are more likely to benefit from inflation, from the higher consumption level and also higher wages. in terms of less attractive areas some mentioned it is a good time to trim back on some of the stocks that have benefited from the weaker yen, especially multinational once is also the exporters, so investors, when they come to look at japanese equities from hit foreign investor perspective some investors including morgan stanley do recommend investors to unhedge japanese equities. annabelle: we will have more on the boj when the former deputy governor tells us what he thinks the central bank should not hike rates just yet. he will have more on the outlook ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ got

the stakes are high heading into tuesday's bank of japan decision. ney managers revealing their expectations in terms of whether the boj will move. paul jackson joins us now from tokyo. so much of this comes down to around 4:00 this afternoon. will all be revealed? paul: yeah, well we're waiting for this wage figure to come out this afternoon. this is going to be the average annual pay deals as tallied by japan's biggest union federation rang go. and if this is a big figure, this could help to tip the scales of the bank of japan in favor of a march move to raise -- raise interest rates for the first time since 2007. what exactly are we looking for in terms of the numbers? last year the initial tally was 3.8% for these annual wage deals. so i think anything around that mark is not going to be too inspiring. economists surveyed by bloomberg earlier this week suggested 4.1%. i still think that is the low end of what it might be. i think it will be a strong four, we could even get five. i think if we get to 5% or in the fives, that is going to be a strong

we aren't expecting a move unlike the bank of japan but we are expecting the rhetoric, in the minutesf the last meeting we heard a rate increase was on the table for the reserve bank of australia. but they didn't wind up going down that path. it did illustrate what priority inflation is for the rba and that was reflected in their decision at the last meeting. in a statement, inflation is a priority, right now 4.1% but the number in january, the monthly indicator was 3.4% so it is at least heading in the right direction. still outside the reserve bank target. other things to watch around inflation, or unemployment also coming in a bit higher -- hotter than usual in january. the conversation around the possibility of a technical recession and australia is a live one. that will be something for the rba to consider. as for the decision, no change, 4.35 percent but the language will be important. haslinda: it is still tricky for the rba. it is stuck between the boj and the fed. garfield: sorry. can you repeat the question? haslinda: this is tricky for the rba, it is stuck between the boj a

of data before we get to the fed. take a look at how japan is setting up today. the drumbeat rolls on head of the bank of japan with the positioning of these expectations and arguably when it comes to the end we are hearing from the likes of columbia saying that the direction of the yen is really dependent on where the fed goes from here. not the decision from the bank of japan. we are still at the hurdle there. annabelle: it is a countdown for the boj meeting, we are fairly steady as we, my buddy moves in the session we saw them retreating somewhat from the all-time high. nasdaq futures in the context of the moves, losses were felt in the tech space, dropping with a handful of big tech. traders are awaiting these readings on inflation and retail sales and we had the uptick somewhere in the february cpi print, headline ppi prices were also expecting to rise. an rebound in energy prices and retail sales are likely to rebound with unfavorable seasonal adjustment factors. they were weighed in, february, expecting somewhat of an improvement. it is the last inflation reading before we get to the fed meetin

you could argue the bank of japan should wait and see if the wage bonanza would be spent or saved. don't think it will. i believe that the bank of japan would start to exit the super loose monetary policy in terms of the negative interest rates, which i expect to go to zero or .1% which is still negliativ in real terms by the fact that the consumer is not that strong and they will also exit yield curve control which will mean the ten-year jgb will go to 1.5%. now the question is does that torpedo the equity market? i think not for the reason you said. it is the golden arrow which has come home to roost which is the reason to own japanese equities is because governance has improved so much and shareholder returns are prioritized. i'm not as enthusiastic about them by japanese equities as i was a year or two years ago. >> fascinating point that some of the wage hikes could be saved rather than spent. david, i want to push on to the chinese economy. we had better data for the first two months of the industrial production and on retail. you have been consistently bearish on chinwhchina.

is this what the bank of japan wanted? ll they rethink the dovish approach to otherwise superficial rate hikes. they have to be getting a little bit concerned. jonathan: we will talk about some of this in a moment. the top story today is the fed rate decision at 2 p.m. eastern with fed chair jay powell set to speak at 2:30 p.m. and rates are expected to remain on hold the fomc will release a new dot plot and projections. still expecting three cuts this year with a dovish chair powell despite a string of hotter than expected inflation prints since the last meeting. if you been missing the coverage over the last week on the dot plot, it will on the -- it will only take two officials of the federal reserve to come up and that will change the median. from three to 2. is that a big deal given the direction of travel over the last few months? lisa: we are talking about eight of 19 fed officials. this is how closely people are scrutinizing this. they have two rate cuts priced in rather than three. if two more join that, then you h

the bank of japan can move out of negative rate territory but partly how far they can move will dependfed and other central banks? is that your point of view? >> yes, let's take a look at the long-term. it is now standing around 0.7% or 0.6%. i mean, now already the message were given to the market. and i think the current market, money market is based on the messages given by the bank of japan, which is not the unleashed, but to some extent, and negative rate will be dismantled. haslinda: suntory holdings' president and ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg. let's take you to markets, some of the movers we are tracking right now, samsung among them. chip-related stocks. samsung set to win $6 billion from the u.s. under the u.s. chips act, according to people familiar with the matter. they said the money will help samsung expand beyond its project in texas. samsung rivals like tsmc and asml set to be awarded that grant. tsmc also in negative territory. we are tracking hon hai surging more than 8% right now after profits soared 30%, boosted pretty much by is ai hardware sales. shares up

it began in focus has japanese stocks of the most among some growing speculation the bank of japan will raise rates, it investors look ahead to u.s. investor data tomorrow. u.s. president joe biden towards israel against invading the city of rafah, calling it a redline as cease-fire talks remained deadlocked. aramco's 31 billion dollars gift, the world's biggest oil exporter ramps up its quarterly dividend despite loyal oil prices to plug a budget deficit. a bit of profit across the nasdaq on friday. we had jobs data, unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9%, but broadly the jobs picture looking at a relatively resilient in the u.s. european stocks ended friday at a press record. european stocks pointing to losses of .5 of 1%. the data focus is the inflation print out of the u.s. on tuesday. it is worth noting inflation out of china managed to take up in a recent reading suggesting the inflationary funk is starting to return. ftse futures pointing lower by .3 of 1%. just down .1 of 1% on s&p futures. it lets with the board and look cross asset, the focus to take is very much on what is happ

chris: the market went into the bank of japan with news priced in and a lot of measures. 10 year jgb'slosed down a three basis points. we saw sellers playing through in the yen and dynamics took over. it feels like the market is happy with the way things are going. communication has been spot on. looser financial conditions. they are buying jgb is to suppress volatility and people are happy to carry. volatility is low and it incentivizes us to put on the well-adjusted trade. tenure swaps and jgb's moving closer to 1% and you're seeing a situation where the position still works. we are only pressing in 20 basis points of hikes, so important about this is not the start of a cycle. that is a greenlight for trades. haidi: is this less to do with a soft approach from the boj and more to do with divergence, availability of fields in other geographies? chris: new gout momentum in markets. divergent trade is there and that will get an extra leg up if we were to see fed dots up. that is the risk going into that and we've seen clients looking to reduce dollar shorts. what if we see two cups

a widely dovish mood from the bank of japan. bigger move for japanese assets. paul: japanese markets are closed, will have futures trading. it is all down to the fed and other central bank decisions. haidi: full steam ahead and japan equity rally. another market hoping for the same narrative is korea. a down day in trading for south korean equities. down 1.1%, weakness in the previous session, tech and chip stocks showing vulnerability. watching the finance sector. institutions pledging to provide $313 billion to the end of the decade for climate related funds. we are watching the impact of the finance ministers saying their easing taxes for firms boosting shareholder returns. trying to cool the value gap. paul: mixed picture, financials performing well, materials is one of the best-performing sectors and energy. brent crude opening soft. we heard from the carlyle group and they see will rising if the fed cuts in june. support in the aussie 10-year above 4% with the rba on hold and cash trade at 4.35%. treasury futures, no traded in japan. it got treasury future

a terrific tuesday for japanese markets and day to remember with the bank of japan ending the negativenterest rates. a lot of reasons why they did that which they will pay .10% of interest on reserves by financial institutions with the central bank. they decided to scrap the yield curve policy and etfs. a lot of reasons why they are more optimistic. you see signs of rising consumption and rise in salaries after the successful wage talks and signs that inflation will stay within the boj target range. deinflation may be a thing of the past. let's start with the asset dclas that did not react to this. jgp yields will maintain the purchasing for japanese government bonds and the governor ueda says if they see a sharp rise, they will respond. that language is keeping bond yields from behaving in a naughty fashion, for lack of a better term. take a look at the japanese yen which is weak today despite the fact they lifted out of the negative rate territory. a lot of traders and analysts we spoke to earlier today in asia said they believe it has been largely priced in because markets expected

recent global economy conditions addressed by gdp conditions is making it more necessary for the bank of japanop of that, the boj has a very painful institutional memory for its unconventional policy they were criticizing it was too hasty and given for the first part of easing, they took about six months to finally exit after the governor appointed the potential of the exit. on the second scenario is not april, rather i would say, the march's second likely, because what i got from the message in the january's meeting is the boj somehow had the negative interest rates, probably they interviewed from their interview and researchers are convinced that in the short-term, there is a rigid core cpi gain supported. macro data cast doubts on that. i know it's a market consensus and it's possible, but given that there is an april tokyo cpi data released just a few hours before the boj's policy decision. so i think they want to avoid undershooting risks for that reading. also, if they move early, they could do march, and if they want to do cautiously, they can do july. yvonne: you are on the cautious ca

the bank of japan is facing a far more challenging set of circumstances.needs to end these extraordinary things, negative rates and yield curve control. perhaps it carries out an immaculate exit from those things. but there is every chance even if the boj does not do anything on tuesday, the communication leave open the door to concerns it might allow yields to soar or it could even be yields do actually jump in the wake of a boj notice. because of what it says about what it plans to do, how it plans to do, or because it does not say enough the tail risks are much more for the boj. perhaps this week does not bring anything. but there is the outside chance if something is going to shock markets in the coming week is more likely to be boj than the fed. the fed has control of where the yen is going, but the boj could upset everybody's apple card's. >> that was bloomberg's garfield reynolds. a lot of the direction or the focus for the boj next week is going to come down to the results of these wage negotiations. today we are going to be getting group results c

japan? jason: we have three parts. the more domestic facing side. financials of banks and insurance companies will benefit from this historic move, exiting from interest rates. we also think many people are bullish on japan. for the last few months, it has been overshadowed by a lot of the moves we saw on the overall market. between now and the summer when you start to get a lot more earnings reports especially on the fiscal year end, you tend to see more ibex in dividend announcements and in the summer you have hd yams where activist investors are making new proposals. for us in the next 2-3 months, this is something investors will be focused on. haidi: i want to head over to talk about china and the burst of positivity. take a look at this chart. it is from the perspective of the gauge showing opt -- showing markets being optimistic. we have seen a rally of more than 50% from the five-year low for the csi 300. is this sustainable? fundamentally, not much has changed including not getting much policy direction from the sessions. jason: that is a great question. based

building expectations on normalization of policy for bank of japan. re also seeing the yen maintained near its one month high against the dollar. building hopes that the bank of japan will end what is the world's last subzero interest rate as early as this month. we are awaiting those bond purchase programs being in particular focus as well. the rally in the yen is an interesting one. given how much is been trading at the moment, the confirmation is coming that the momentum has really shifted, potentially will clear the way for it to rally, and a lot of it depends on what happens with the u.s. dollar. we have a lot of u.s. political news to get through. paul: the u.s. congress moving closer to forcing tiktok's parent company bytedance to sell the platform over national security concerns. the company is calling on u.s. users to protest directly to the makers. and a temporary ports on the gaza coast to ramp up the delivery of aid and ease to humanitarian crisis in the territory. senior administration officials say the president will announce the steps in

eddy: the japanese yen is contingent on bank of japan monetary policy. expect the bank of japan to exit negative interest rate policy sometime in the second quarter this year. having said that, exciting doesn't mean aggressive tightening. haslinda: march or april? eddy: we are looking at april, if i recall correctly, but it is dependent on the shunto, if the numbers -- if growth is coming higher than expected, then it gives a reason for the boj to act faster. haslinda: fundamentals are in place to support further rally in the nikkei 225? eddy: in terms of corporate reforms, that is something that has been constructive and supportive for japanese equities and probably we get a bit more of that. one thing we highlighted to investors is on the political development. because the current prime minister with ldp, they are facing a september election, and there is a chance that the prime minister may get reelected. given some concerns in terms of support levels. if that were to happen, it could create uncertainty about policy continuity and could create volatil

we were waiting for the bank of japan to make the move.ne was higher inflation which has been going for quite some time now. last friday, the news came in with the companies represented by the biggest labor union in japan would raise wages in april by 5%. those two factors are in place. that is why they are ending this so-called experiment. it was long overdue according to economists, but they took a cautious approach and made the move today. a lot will depend on what happens from here on, particularly on the currency front because imported inflation costs have been a serious draw and serious weight on consumption. that is the missing link in the recovery scenario. karen, we are still skirting on the edges of recession. yes, it is a symbolic move, but beyond that, you know, unless you are in the brokerage rooms and cheering on the nikkei, there is a deep sense of caution from the average person in japan. >> thank you for the perspective on the significant day as we weigh the moves from the bank of japan and what lies ahead for many investo

market yesterday from the policy board highlights we are approaching a judgment point for the bank of japan. we have the spring wage negotiations coming up. if they prove to be positive, the bank of japan may conclude that would be an underpinning for price inflation to remain at the 2% target. that may encourage a modest marginal shift in monetary policy particularly around negative interest rate and potential yield curve control. what that might catalyze is rotation within japanese equity markets. at the lease what it might do is reverse the profound weakness in the yen, including the u.s. dollar in the last year, and that creates a short-term headwind for japanese equities. that is why we are selectively and modestly taking profit and looking into gains today, because we are approaching a point of judgment for the bank of japan. haidi: adjacent to japan, coming to the same themes and policy narratives, south korea has stage quite a turnaround. are you optimistic about the number of announcements we are seeing? we have scant details but a lot of investor optimism, is that a good option? m

at this point, you have to get the finance mystery and the bank of japan -- finance ministry and banke bank of japan is in no hurry to raise rates materially. jonathan: will that dovish hike be a bit of a crack? lisa: i don't think so, we heard from a boj official saying we need to be cautious, deliberate and slow. basically doubling down on what moves they just took. jonathan: this morning, six people are presumed dead after the collapse of the's francis scott key bridge in baltimore. president biden said he would like the federal government to pay for the rebuild to move heaven and earth to reopen the port and rebuild the bridge. the port is one of the busiest on america's east coast. the rebuild, you have to do the cleanup first, which is what we talked about moments ago. annmarie: you hear from officials that this will take weeks, if not months just for the cleanup for we talk about the funding and what will be needed in terms of infrastructure to rebuild. i will go back to what brendan murray said, is this isolated could we see a domino effect? at the moment, companies are regrou

the central bank kicking off its two day meeting after the bank of japan delivered its first rate hike since 2007. we will take stock of the global landscape. the future of new york community bank. we speak to a key investor in the $1 billion capital infusion. the long-term trend -- plan for the troubled lender. the ceo ducati joints to talk about the business of making motorcycles and the moto gp. i am katie greifeld and welcome to bloomberg markets. you take a look at the markets and there is some red on the screen. the s&p 500 off by about point read percent, a far cry from this time 24 hours ago. you look at the nasdaq 100 and the big tech names and it gets worse. the nasdaq 100 off by .8%, not too big of a move but to the downside. this as we count down to the fed decision. that line is what you want to watch, the 10-year treasury yield lower by one basis point. we are sitting at 4.3% or so. of course that meeting kicked off at 9:00 a.m.. let us dive deeper into the markets with catherine, the stone next financial chief market strategist. let us talk about the fed but let us start

plenty of advance warning if last week's first hike in 17 years was anything to go by for the bank of japanthat was widely telegraphed and there were multiple leaks to japanese media. for more, let's bring in bloomberg opinion columnist dan moss. in terms of signaling to the market what you are thinking and leaking like a sieve, where is the line here? >> the point that my colleague and i were making in our column today is there appears to be no line. you used the word telegraph. it is important to say most central banks will telegraph their general inclination prior to a meeting where there's likely to be policy action. what we've seen consistently from the bank of japan, particularly u undereda's leadership is next level. we are talking about leaks in excruciating and definitive detail, not just trial balloons, and they are coming while the meeting is in progress. it was like watching a football game last week. nhk was giving breathless updates of what ueda was tabling to the group while the meeting was in progress. japan is wondering why it can't get into the five eyes, why on earth woul

they think march is the go to date for the bank of japan. it's all going to happen next week. a couple of other people who have come in line with that. something still going for april as you say. we've come to the point where the wage numbers are coming in exactly as the bank of japan wanted, way above the inflation numbers. i had confirmation of that with the toyota numbers. big run coming up at the end of the week. they are also looking something -- for something close to 7%. the government economy has come out and said that the end of deflation is pretty much there. they are ready to be clear of it. it's all coming together at the same time. it's no wonder that people think something could really happen next week. haslinda: is it enough though? or does the boj still need to wait before deciding? mark: it's probably not specifically now about data and surveys. it's more about whether they feel they would cause a big disruption to the fiscal year-end. you can see already there's been plenty of stories saying that some bank of japan people are leaning towards doing something i

i new bloomberg survey sees japanese money staying offshore once the bank of japan hikes rates. we get the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> >> we have been seeing the bank of japan is ready to tighten policies. >> my interview is it will be a dovish exit. >> market split between a march and april exit from negative rates. >> the u.s. goes lower and against -- and the yen strengthens. at >> i do not think they want to risk instability. >> the stock market has performed well so that could take this as that of that. >> there will be hiccups and it seems that these couple of months will be rougher japanese equities, but at the same time they can give you opportunities. >> where does the money go? maybe to china. annabelle: some of the bloomberg tv guess we spoke to, and one of the questions in our survey is if we do see the boj hiking and that is being reported as a foregone conclusion in local media, is that going to trigger a flight of japanese selling of overseas assets, and this results saying there is a 40% chance of that happening, the majority is saying, no, there are mor

the bank of japan has ended its era of negative interest rates and is signaling easy financial conditionsill continue, giving clues on when to expect further hikes. the central bank is shifting from its negative interest rate policy after seeing its 2% inflation target had come into sight and the move has prompted a slide past the 150 mark against the dollar. that is your bloomberg brief. jonathan: making the case for tesla. >> my view on tesla is it is easy to give negative. they will gain more share in the leverage will be there. i believe ultimately numbers and growth will start to go back up. jonathan: daca -- that conversation is coming up next. live from new york city, good morning. ♪ investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. but at t. rowe price, we're letting curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare. and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. live from the home of bank of america, we are new york throughout this m

that means the central bank of japan, bank of japan could be less of an investment in us treasuries whether our debt and so forth remains to be seen. neil: how much play or attention do you pay to the markets? fed officials, not much, has got to be to some degree because you worried the market is getting giddy or ahead of their skis, anticipating imminent cuts in interest rates, the prevailing wisdom was march of this year and it is pushed back to june. how much do you tamp down that explanation or markets do their own thing but here's what they are looking at. >> good question, not an easy question to answer, not as important and the fed march -- watches the markets ended every meeting there's a clear report of what the markets have been telling the fed and what's likely to be the result of policy actions that around the table but having said that, the fed doesn't get into a you at with markets, the committee becomes reactive to markets, market mowers or market news and generally speaking the focus is on the real economy, the mainstreet economy where most people live. markets are a factor,

bank of japan before that really expected to have kind of a signature landmark move. what do you expect out of it and what are the market implications? >> we think the bank of japan has enough ammo to finally get out of negative rates and think they do that tomorrow. you've got really strong wage negotiations that are happening, so a lot of the big steel companies and big auto manufacturers have increased wages at some of the highest levels we've seen multidecade increase, largest labor union last week agreed to some pretty significant wage increases. this has been one of the criteria that the bank of japan has been looking for to get out of negative rates and growth side, they gotfourth quarter gdp revised slightly higher and avoid the technical two b back-to-back quarters. and this is a backdrop they can exit negative marks. the direction for the currency is the big question. >> it will be and the other question is, i mean, it's been one of the best markets for months and months in japan, best equity markets, you know, is it as good as it seems and can you actually b

haidi: the latest on the bank of japan. the boj is one part of what we are watching but also u.s.on. that is how we are seeing global equity markets pacing themselves. european equity futures looking positive. the dax, .4% higher. investors in this part of the world are concerned about catching the next leg higher that hedges being put in place for a pullback. markets have been rallying ahead of what we have seen as a pullback early this week. watching currencies. we have seen a bit of an outperformance in the latest rally for the pound against the dollar and other g10 currencies. and the move in u.s. -- and u.k. gilts as well. annabelle: markets might be pacing themselves but cryptocurrency is not. taking a look at how bitcoin prices are faring. trading above the 72,000 mark. we had not seen that before yesterday. we are up for six days. looking at gains of 70%. it is a big flow we are seeing into these and it is creating a lot of demand for the tokens. those demands cannot be met. and you can add the anticipation of the bitcoin haidi: some data crossing the bloomberg when it com

this is sort of the key question, what is the bank of japan care about more? g growth at the expense of their currency or really trying to bring that under control more significantly? jonathan: we've had a move one way from the boj, will we get another move from the federal reserve? why the expected hold rates steady but investors are looking for update on the dot plot and summary of economic projections. bloomberg economics still expecting just three cuts this year despite a string of inflation prints. jay powell set to speak at 2:00 eastern time in that meeting, you will be there. what is the focus of this news conference going to be for you and others? >> i think most people are going to be looking to the idea of when did they cut and obviously if there is a change in the dot plot, does that signify something significant? there is talk that maybe the strong jobs numbers and cpi numbers will because they cut back from three rate cuts this year to two rate cut this year, so that will be the first thing that everybody looks at. it is kind of the same question t

what do investors want to hear from the bank of japan? homin: after this move, the bank of japan is unlikely to make additional adjustments. they just made a landmark decision in the march monetary policy meeting so it's natural for the central bank to put things on hold for a while and see how the economy reacts to it. market assessment is it was a dovish hike. in our view a well-managed dovish hike given it's the first change the country has seen for monetary policy in nearly a decade, especially for the negative interest rate policy. given it is a dovish hike, it's possible for markets to try to push the dollar-yen higher, and if that's the case in the near term, the momentum could remain positive. we are not ruling out another hike, we agree there is a possibility of another hike for the remainder of the year, especially if wage growth remains positive, which means eventually in the middle of the year you will see the improvement in real uncommon -- real income for households. excessive weakness in yen might trigger the bank of japan t

what has been found in this reading is that bank of japan watches a slim majority of those still expecting end of negative rates to come in april but march bets are continuing to grow as well even though just a couple of months ago they were seen as a very outside risk. let's get more on this now with paul jackson in tokyo. we have certainly had lots of boj officials. a they live meeting. paul: oh yeah, absolutely this is a live meeting that is very close. this shows us the baseline scenario among economists is still april. but the case for march is growing by the day. we saw 30% of economists suggesting that the boj would move in march. so this reflects this kind of momentum towards the idea that the boj will move early in march. just for comparison, if you look at overnight swaps in markets, you will see that they are pricing in about a two thirds chance of a march move. so, yeah, things are gathering -- getting very tight to call. we have more data coming in this week on wages. that is coming in on friday. this is the result of the annual pay deals between companies and unions. last yea

for example, the bank of japan is coming up. calls to tighten policy are becoming louder. e is a wide assumption that the bank of japan we have it before. they won't have a major impact. maybe it will, maybe the market is not as prepared and i can start the spiral of events. into european and american markets. new have an avalanche starting. >> truth be told, if you were looking into a crystal ball, what are you looking at? >> within six months. for it to have an impact, and has to happen within a few months. in 12 months, these option positions have expired. it has to happen while there is a large amount outstanding and they will be rolled over. it will be something like for no particular reasons. there will be a week when there is not much data, maybe no fed speakers and the market ends badly that we, why? that's the start of people unwinding positions and it snowballs. >> beware. mark brown feel with his stake. subscribers can see more on this with more deep dives into the global stories. still to come, why a company expects even further growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> m

to england to the bank of japan. let's talk about what's happening in the markets. we are in a bit of a holding pattern before the economic data hits the tape. the s&p still up on the day after a bit of a bummer of a week last week. no up around .9%. the semi index now up about 1.5%. we are going to talk about some mid-day movers on the equity side. looking at shares of nvidia ahead of the ceo's. speech this afternoon. hsbc raising its. rights target here. . up .4%. tesla will raise prices on all model why models by $1000 next month. it's making because i one of the biggest gainers in the s&p 500 up more than 5.5%. alphabet and apple are also major gainers in the s&p 500 today. this is on a school play are in talks to integrate -- on talks they are integrating capabilities. the ceo of barclays this year is still betting on rate cuts but just a little later than expected. >> the economy is stabilizing. employment is robust. inflation is coming down. on the balance, it might be more prudent to wait a little longer. our view and that of many others is more rate cuts th