associate professor of economics and the director of the economics program at bard college.eserve bankl president robert kaplan weighed in, and exclusive interview. >> it is still our view that we will contract for the year at about 4.5% to 5%. it has been our view after a very sharp decline in the second quarter. rebound in the third and fourth quarter is more muted in the united states. it has caused me to think that the unemployment rate, if we don't do a better job managing the virus, the unemployment rate is likely to be between 9% and 10%. we have moved up our unemployment forecast. i think we have got a rebound but it is much more muted than it was. if we don't do a better job managing the virus, we will have lower growth and a higher unemployment rate. unemploymentxtra bonus and eviction moratorium, they are gone for now. wave ofe expect a defaults that might affect credit markets? >> we have looked at it. is of the things that unusual about this downturn is that incomes is relatively solid, and one of the reasons is the unemployment benefits. normally in a downturn,