barkin tom barkin ---- and tom barkin.. ♪ ere ya headed? susan: where am i headed? am i just gonna take what the markets gives me? no. i can do some research. ya know, that's backed by j.p. morgan's leading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management you go to sandals to get really, really close, (giggling) to the caribbean. we should do this every morning. sandals valentine's sale is now on. save up to $1,000 and get a sandal-lit dinner for two. >> the exceptionalism is firmly in place. the fund metals are at risk -- the fundamentals are at risk. >> they do have an inflationary element. markets will care less about that if it comes with a side of growth. >> the fog is so dense in terms of what this will mean for business capex and for inflation. >> fed gets get pushed down when you see these to tariff increases could implement it. -- implemented. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and anna record turn. -- annmarie ho

lizzy: barkin been moaning the uncertainty. >> is a consistent message from fed speakers recently that they want to see more data, take more time. they held a rate steady in january. they are indicating they are in no rush to make changes and went to see how new policies develop from the federal reserve, the white house, what is the effect on the economy, so in effect we are going back to the debate it -- a-dependent outlook -- the data dependent outlook. over the next few months inflation numbers will be important. that is the one where people think there was the risk of an upside. we may have reached a bit of a base, and now with the risk of lower taxes and expansion in the economy there could be upside inflation, so those numbers will be important. inflation numbers always are, but it may carry even more weight than job numbers, so by the middle of next week will have a better picture of what the fed can digest in terms of where the data is taking them and whether they can start to think about interest rate cuts leather into gear. the market thanks one more cut in the second half. o

we'll hear from several members of the fomc, including richmond fed president tom barkin and his chicagoerpart, austan goolsbee. the earnings keep on coming with disney arm and qualcomm amongst the big names reporting today. and the u.s. postal service is temporarily suspending all inbound packages from china and hong kong following new u.s. tariffs on chinese goods. apple shares are seen lower in premarket trade after a report that china is considering a probe into the tech giant's policies and app store fees. that's according to bloomberg, which cited sources familiar with the matter. cnbc has reached out to apple for comment. apple's not the only one that is down premarket. alphabet shares sank in extended trade after the tech giant missed on fourth quarter revenue expectations and announced further investments into ai. revenue at the google parent company grew 12% year on year, slightly weaker than the same quarter last year amid a slowdown in its search business, as well as its youtube ad business and services unit. richard kramer, senior analyst at arete research, joins me now. ric

and then tomorrow, tom barkin stops by to stock -- to talk with the three of us. and we can literally take the president's views or whether the fed does. jonathan: that is a timely conversation. mike will be leading not tomorrow. look out for that. let us turn to fixed income and tariff uncertainty pushing yields higher yesterday. a little bit lower at the long end of the curve. "we expect tariffs to exert a flattening influence on the curve and to put upward pressure on spreads. tony joins us for more. let us separate those stories. i want to focus on the treasury curve. yesterday was interesting. the yields perished -- pushed higher and at the longer-term the yields dropped. explain that new -- move for you? mike: from our perspective we think the strong influence from this tariff war and situation is the drag on growth. at the long end you see that put into place. and you think about what happens since the fall of last year, almost the 100 basis point rise in rates was on the positive growth side whether it was deregulation or tax cuts or fiscal, we saw the jum