and the president on the debt ceiling raise tomorrow, iran sides macroeconomic managing partner barry knappek and beyond. stay with us. >> ♪ i am every woman ♪ ♪ there are some things that go better... together. like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. ya know, if you were cashbacking you could earn on everything with just one card. chase freedom unlimited. so, if you're off the racking... ...or crab cracking, you're cashbacking. cashback on flapjacks, baby backs, or tacos at the taco shack. nah, i'm working on my six pack. switch to a king suite- or book a silent retreat. silent retreat? hold up - yeeerp? i can't talk right now, i'm at a silent retreat. cashback on everything you buy with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours. bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfin

katie: joining us is peter cheer and barry knapp.'s talk about something other than the debt ceiling. core pce, 4.7% year-over-year and .4% month over month, both above estimates. what happened to disinflation? peter: and not 100% sure. whether companies think they can continue with higher prices, clearly there are still jobs. i see them hiking one more time at this pace. katie: could that be in june? peter: it could be if we get more data like today. i think they are going to be reluctant to pause if they think they have to go again. i'm leaning towards 25 basis points and no cuts this year. katie: assuming we get a deal in the next a few hours or over the weekend on the debt ceiling and that issue is resolved, is june alive meeting when it comes to a potential rate hike barry: no, i don't think so. katie: tell me about it. barry: super court services flat this month at three, lacking hot comps. it is on its way lower. if you take shelter out of cpi, you are at a level, in the case of cbi like to point to 5%. i think we are on track

barry knapp of ironsides writes a 5% policy for longer will accelerate the bank deposit beta that's theovement in and out of banks with deposits, forcing more banks to shrink their assets 69% of respot dents have lower their forecast by an average of 0.4% because of concerns about tightening lending standards in fact, 96% say banks will tighten their lending standards. 4% think it will remain unchanged. forecasters have lowered their expectations for that and increased their expectations for employment that will begin in september steve liesman, cnbc, business news. >>> regional banks have continued to fall despite jpm jpmorgan's takeover of first republic bank. it's one of the factors driving contagion fears. joumanna, this has been something we've continued to look at. we look at march and how the next penetrable drop was about commercial real estate and how much you have in that sector really these regional lenders are suffering on the back of a lot of that. i mean one tick to look at even some of the numbers just yesterday when you took a look at some of the shares. we spoke about p

i want to bring in iron side macroeconomics director barry knapp.ightening on credit, senior loan officers survey was not as frightening as we thought it would be, but listening to conference calls tight credit mentioned more than anytime even in the global financial crisis. we go on there, barry, we talk about recessions and yield curves. i want to bring up one of your charts first. companies are worried about what is happening here. should investors be? >> i think so, question. i actually think it is going to hit the small business sector harder than it will hit the s&p 500 type companies. if you look for example, the huge drop in job openings first three months of the year, the vast majority are coming from businesses with one to 49 employees. so this is something of a slow bleed. what seems probable, deposit growth is something like negative 5% right now. when there is a debt ceiling deal, even if it is a short-term deal that pushes it to the end of the year the treasury will increase issuance, build their balance back at the fed to the tune of

here now with more is barry knapp, managing partner and director of research at ironside's macro economicsbathroom trip and said, i was absolutely correct of what i was saying to richard fisher, and he was comp completely wrong >> 100%. >> skpibs, wow, you're really smart. in what way was i right? >> in i was still at barclays, i would probably be having a battle with him right now about this but listen, first of all, trying to do the math from what's going to happen to credit in terms of what will that mean for economic activity and inflation is a really fraught, dubious approach, right? you're talking about, okay, credit supply to small businesses right now, deposit growth is negative 5%. yesterday, mark on kelly's show said he thinks that bank deposits could drop to $1,200. while the relationship between bank credit loans and security purchases is really tight. it was almost identical pre-pandemic so what's his vision deposits falling at an annualized 11% rate. and it's not a linear thing, right? once it starts falling, it could fall aggressively, in which case you could have something