joining us is barry knapp and brian smedley. barry, when we start to think about what we have seen just this week alone, and what we have heard from fed officials in terms of the id of the market is doing the work for the fed, do you believe that? barry: i would frame it differently. we had -- there are three ways to diss advert the curve and make no mistake, the curve needs to be diss inverted by 2024 for the banking system to absorb the multifamily realistic projects that need to be ruled, the supply of credit to small businesses to flow in 2024, so of those three ways we could disembark the curve, we were on the benign path which was a potential full steepening with the fed cuts rates because inflation is coming down, not because employment weakens. but what began at the beginning of august was the most insidious way for the car to dozen bird which is a bear steepening come along rates rising, potentially through 5% on tens and 30's, which would leave a lot of carnage in its wake and securities portfolios for one and that was

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we are lucky to have barry knapp, iron sides managing partner. rry you wrote a report last week, demonetizaton. you talk about the bear steepening it continues. panic data, distortions, qt channels, tightening pang pressure but not a fat pitch yet. what does this all mean? >> i only recall two periods during the my 39 years in the business, maybe i'm misremembering the early bond vigilante stage where the market had to reprice to absorb supply. on my dirt day, when the republicans lofted two senate seats in georgia. 60 base point move in 30 year real rate. the part of the curve least impacted by fed balance sheet or raid policy and yet again at the beginning of this august we had a similar move. the fed could have stabilized it following the fairly weak august payroll report but instead they came out with hawkish guidance and this idea they will keep the policy rate above 5% for 15 months, an outcome i think would absolutely be impossible. there is no way the banking system can absorb any treasurys with the yield curve structured at this level. so

into the data and spending, growth, and more here with me is steven stanley, chief economist, and barry knapp. barry, good to have you in the house and not from your house out in the mountains nice to be in the mountains, as well steve, if i were to sum up how i read my notes from you, it is this -- growth is growing. inflation is slowing but the slowing may be slowing in inflation >> yes you got it exactly right i don't know if anyone can follow that, but yes >> so you like the growth profile that you are seeing? >> yes >> and even more than you did yesterday? >> a little bit, because the september data was stronger than expected so steve suggested that leaves you with more momentum coming into the fourth quarter. so something close to 2% growth in the fourth quarter, which is not 5%, but it's -- >> there's the 2.3% prediction from the atlanta fed barry, you have a slightly more cautious take. i think if i were to bear down, you see some concerns in commercial real estate, right? >> correct >> among other areas that you see as potentially "systemic risks. >> yeah, more broadly, i've been cha