barry sternlicht real estate mogul. chairman and ceo of starwood capital. federal reserve sometimes people's eyes can glaze over i don't see how we can avoid talking about it let's start from a different perspective. you know how the economy is right now. you know how inflation is running right now. you have a lot of businesses is the fed going to be able to successfully get inflation under control without killing the patient? >> you know, good morning, joe good morning, everyone. >> "morning joe," i love him he's on a competing network, well, sister network >> i am sort of losing my proverbial with the fed. i think this is is an academic institution so late raising rates. there was pure speculation in the stock market we've seen crazy behavior and they did nothing and now that inflation arrived and actually is headed down, they are raising rates too aggressively and i could not disagree more with your guest yesterday morning, mohamed el erian. you cannot -- this will be the fifth rate rise this year. it's the steepest increase in rates in history since vu l

the corporate comments on business conditions ahead of the fed meeting next week here is what barry sternlicht told us yesterday. >> i am losing my preverbial with the fed it was pure speculation. we have seen crazy behavior. they did nothing now that inflation arrived and actually is headed down, they are raising rates too aggressively this will be the fifth rate rise this year. the steepest increase in rates in history >> the fmoc will begin gathering tuesday and decision and jay powell conference set for wednesday. this is what the markets are keying off ahead of this andrew. >>> a news alert from washington the biden administration releasing the role on digital assets ylan mui has details on that >> reporter: andrew, the white house is issuing the government's first framework on digital assets it says the goal here is to mitigate the downside risk of the volatile industry and harness the benefits where proven the treasury department and commerce and white house contributed to the effort. brian deese said without proper o oversight, cryptocurrency is risking every day americans. the fed sho

now, barry sternlicht, by the way, he's a hawk i've known him for a long time he's a hawk, and he's annjoyable hawk, but he's a hawk. it sent shudders through me that he said that, because most people i know who are in his position, say, we need 100 if he's saying, i'm seeing differently, that's a 0.75 in weight, not 100 and keep going >> yeah. jpmorgan today says, you know, gdp and even core pce is tracking below the fed estimate, which means in their view, it's going to be hard to get the median much above 4. >> well, i just think, obviously, we have wage inflation. david is at the core when you talk about, like, look at disney, how many thousands of employees they have, i mean, can they keep them notice the union pacific, by the way, was about healthcare. it was about mental health it was not about money david, it is great to see you. i know that disney, like many companies in the entertainment business, seemed very challenged, but from what i have heard already about what you're going to say, it's kind of positive >> it was an interesting conversation with bob chapek obviously, it

. >> roger, we had barry sternlicht on last week. he made the case that raising rates thus far worked in ways we don't understand or fully appreciate that actually the market, not just the market, but the economy has already turned and it is starting to get easier to hire people you are starting to see some of the effects in the marketplace do you believe that? if so, do you think it will change any of the dynamic as we look toward the next fall and winter months? >> i think jay powell yesterday pointed to a number of places where we are starting to see some weaknesses. the housing market was one of them he talked a little bit about perhaps a slight increase in labor force participation. he came back to the main thing labor market is out of balance we still have roughly two jobs for every unemployed individual. i think for him, it is the labor market themethat is paramount. i think that's the one that has not moved nearly as far as they're hoping having said that, there is always a risk they will stay too long. >> the nod to the hous

so what jay powell -- i was like, is jay powell watching then, i said, if jay powell is, is barry sternlichthe's a heavyweight >> he is and he is not afraid to speak his mind barry yesterday was powerful gundlach says the best opportunity in ten years >> says nasdaq could outperform for years. >> go buy apple. we saw the phone yesterday, we saw the future of course, i went and bought the 17 >> he visits -- >> no, i'm going to go up there after. we're not going anywhere >> i didn't get my invite. >> you didn't? >> no. >> i thought you were invited. >> no, i wasn't. >> oh. i thought you snubbed them >> i'm even out in the area out there, like, i'm coming to town, guys, anybody want to meet nobody's around to meet you. >> they have a 14, it's got a really good camera i'll let you know. >> let me know keep me up >> cramer's mad dash coming up in the opening bell. don't go away. (vo) hi. we're visible. a different kind of wireless company... ...running on a big impressive wireless network. how are we different? we exist only on your phone. so you get unlimited data for just $30/mo, taxes and fees

other way and not realize they have already done enough and go too far >> you are making the barry sternlicht debate. i don't know if we're there yet. i don't know >> would that be fitting to transitory, transitory, transitory oh, my god we were wrong. tight, tight, tight. we'll lick this. oh, my god what do we do? per perfect symmetry >> it is not just tightening in the u.s., one reason the move lower and this is putting everybody in the position they didn't anticipate. >> they are still behind the curve. unless they get their act together they don't want to tighten it up either they have their problems do you want to tighten in countries in southern europe do they want tightening with ge germany's economy? you have people in russia like every man between 20 and 60 is trying to sneak out of the country. that is messed up what is happening. >> joe, is the thesis -- upside thesis -- >> it can't get worse? >> the upside is the fed and other central banks realize they made a mistake and ease up earlier than people thought and there's -- if that were to be the case, is there a rocket up i don't k

we have a global guy saying we need 1% to 2% increase to get this under control conversely, barry sternlicht stop immediately. we're on the precipice of a really sharp slowdown. both sides can't be right, roger. i feel for jay powell. where are you on this? >> i'm in the position that says the fed needs to continue to execute the strategy they laid out. i think 75 points is the more prudent move this time they have to signal the summary of economic projections and also importantly what jay powell needs to do is a in the press conference to stay on the mapath inflation is the clear and present danger here. they have to be prepared and we have to be prepared for what chair powell called pain hopefully a short recession. getting inflation under control is job one and moving up 75 basis points and more to come is a better approach. >> the hot numbers we saw, roger, were hotter by .10% of a point as far as expectation. i guess my question is if you really believe that the supply chain issues that occurred after the reopening from the pandemic and if that is primarily what's to blame here, you cou

. >> the one thing barry sternlicht said is the fed is looking at outdated data if you are looking atother ceos see every day, his concern is they're reacting to outdate dad at that. as a result it's far more likely they will over shoot and push us into a deeper recession. >> that's a legitimate recession. i thought always my entire career on wall street, i always thought the fed's data was probably as good as anybody's in the planet and it was probably abated that's not the case. looking at outdated data, how outdated can it be a month. still, that could be an issue. i wouldn't worry about that either. >> there's more cash sitting on the sidelines than there has been in a very long time. >> yeah. >> people aren't getting drawn in by any of the drops thinking, okay, there's more room to come down what do you see from the retail investor side, from the day trader side? >> i think people are on the sideline other than the day when the cpi number, market down 4.3% that was the second largest inflow to equities that we had all year other than that, it's not that the retail seller is selli