baseline as well. michael: jay powell said at his press conference last week that the headwinds have diminished but now, trade talks with china may be in jeopardy. what if the president were to impose additional tariffs? vice chair clarida: what we have determined is that so far, the trade measures put in place have a very modest effect on the economy last year. obviously, we are hopeful that there is an agreement. that's up to the president and the negotiations that are ongoing. wethat is not the outcome, will certainly take that into account in future policy. right now, trade has not had a big impact on the economy so far. not in terms of growth or inflation. --hael: there are pronounced vonnie: we are having a little problem with our connection. we will be back with richard clarida and michael mckee in a moment. i think we can go back right now. vice chair clarida: the baseline view for europe, perhaps later in the year, it will begin to pick up. we have cited the fact that global developments we ar

and then to put them on the ship. . >>. >> the baseline is righ right. we are executing. it has been a very interesting year with low unemployment rate. to attain and attract and recruit a military force. and then the highest admission in may of last year. and we struggle to be across the finish line as the zone a retention there is a lot of naval marine officers. to think back to the time they have ever had that is pretty rare. but 67 percent of the naval retention rate the highest we've had in ten years. so what's going on here? it is the classic big force that drives retention rates down and recruiting harder so why are we seeing the reverse? we don't have enough data yet to be very accurate with it, but we believe it is the changes that were made to open opportunities with more flexible options and more transparency they had a vote to fix pcs that has been a hard problem for families. the other part is they feel like they have a purpose and secretary mattis came in he talked about great power competition, he talked about war fighting, we fully embrace that and believe

——as a baseline. so we were confident nothing would happen in terms of security and safety.e will be down to the last 16 by wednesday which may see holders kashima antlers miss out. but on tuesday the 2017 winners urawa red diamonds made sure that there would be a guaranteed japanese presence as colm harrison reports. u rawa urawa red diamonds with home advantage, were the favourites. their opponents and rivals for a place in the last 16 needed a win or score. . . place in the last 16 needed a win or score... sorry about that. we have an issue with that vt. we will try to bring it to you again in the next hour. in the meantime, let us not panic. we will move along. england footballerjordan nobbs has called for more research to be done on a potential link between injuries and hormones. nobbs will miss the women's world cup which starts next month after suffering a knee injury last year and she's revealed that it happened on the first day of her period. more sports are now monitoring women's cycles and what impact they might have on an athlete's performance. katie shanahan rep

sides of the baseline. >> i have to ask about headwinds. at his press conference last week that they will diminish, but all of a sudden trade talks with china may be in jeopardy. have you model the impact on the u.s. economy if the president were to impose these additional tariffs? richard: we have determined that so far, the trade measures put in place really had a modest effect on the economy last year. obviously, we are hopeful there is an agreement. that is obviously up to the president and the negotiations are ongoing but if that is not the outcome, we will take that into account in future policy. right now, trade has not had a big impact on the economy so far, even terms of growth or inflation. michael: the markets seem confident that 2.5% is a terminal rate. are they correct? richard: that is one view of markets. again, the data can break either way. the upside or the downside. we think the u.s. economy and monetary policy is in a good place right now. our focus is on sustaining maximum employment and stability. we don't see a strong

about $60 million would be available in that reserve and baseline allocation. that is all i have prepared, but i would be happy to answer questions. >> colleagues? any questions or comments? yes, supervisor model men? >> i think it is worth noting -- they have brought his good news around the budget and i know this has not always been the case, that d.b.h., in years past , has actually been a drain in many years, and i think it is certainly a priority for the power director, and for the current director, as well to get a handle on rumour -- reimbursements, and medi-cal, and all sorts of issues related to their budget. that seems to be bearing fruit here, so i personally am grateful for that. i want to express gratitude to the folks at d.b.h. who have made this happen. >> any other comments or questions? i would just like to say that i think this is very good news and that it looks like our deficit is now down to 100 million, which is, after these years of working with advocates and other organizations, we are always monitoring the deficit. this is actually -- i

sachs saying that they will probably shift to a baseline.ng if there is a mood shift from weeks ago. is on theike a deal table. but don trump looks to be headed towards a much more protracted trade war. francine: what can china do next? will they ratchet it up? will they use financials and renminbi? drawn aseem to have line in the sand. there was commentary if they -- we have the federal reserve president james bullard question aboute a negotiating tool. he had the point that if they were to do that, it would not be a very effective one. i think it is a broad view of that china would be certainly pulling the nuclear option. much, ourthink you so bloomberg chief economics correspondent. there has been a shift in the markets, at least a lot of research that i get. could see this trade war for five years or 10 years. and it could get worse. what does it mean for how the market reacts? >> i say that you are right. moving toward a cautionary pessimistic outlook on the tray discussion. i say we have to get used to this new normal. a prolonged appr

parallel to the embarcadero to both address these particular intersections as well as increase the baseline of the structure that is in the neighborhood. if i can move this slide... >> i'm not sure what is going on here. >> technical difficulties. >> it always happens. >> to make sure we're talking about here, this map shows where there is porridge jurisdiction unless you shift -- up to the sfmta jurisdiction. the twaddle intersections and battery are within the port jurisdiction and we are looking at making more substantive changes to those intersections. what is in front of the board today are just class two bike lanes on battery and sansom in m.t.a. jurisdiction. they are a one-way street, two lanes in each direction, as well as vallejo street and davis, which are one lane in each direction, more local streets, and the idea is to improve conductivity within the neighborhood, which is separated from the waterfront, and the topography of telegraph hill from downtown. as well as trying to take some pressure off of the embarcadero as we look for more substantive infrastructure. i'm also mana

because the indian baseline is very different from where the chinese baseline is, you will but if, even, prime minister modi, with his new mandate, can really unlock some of the hurdles to investment, you can start to see an indian economy really take off and hit much higher rates of growth. back to before he was prime minister, when he was head of state, was known for his reform agenda when it comes to business and commerce. he is not known for being aggressive in a trade area. what is his reputation in trade, what are his policies in trade? historically, has not been open and liberal on trade. i think prime minister modi understands there is a larger opportunity for india, it is playing not just for the indian market, but the global market. for him to do that, he needs to open up the economy and liberalize the trade. but it is politically difficult and complicated. there are very strong domestic constituencies that he is grappling with. i do think we will see some movement here, even though the past probably with the campaign being as hot and heated as it was, a lot of rhetoric that w

i don't think it's a baseline i think that's more due to the backlog that existed before this crisis happened. there is a big backlog and that would cause there to be no orders the one thing i will say is china they say is on pace to be a trillion dollar airline market and to fulfill their demand they are going to need boeing airplane so i would not take that as the norm i am i'm a contrarian by nature. when you have any kind of skin though i like to buy into that scandal in this case i'm not because it's not just the scandal it's the backlog it's the trade wars there's a lot of other things and then add in the technical perspective so. it's not because the news that i want to get involved it's because of the complete picture there's too many negatives right and you in your 1st answer you mentioned the u.s. china trade talks as an element here you know boeing is apparently. boeing banked $3013800000000.00 in sales in china for $2800.00 that's roughly 14 percent reportedly of the global total sales and the actual effect of the new chinese terrorists most recent chinese tariff since th

ca re baseline assessments, the social care statement which came out this week were 160,000 people areho need it. 50,000 of those people are living with dementia and do not have a care package. we are determined to the government to account so from a labour point of view we are still pressing and doing thejob labour point of view we are still pressing and doing the job which labour point of view we are still pressing and doing thejob which is required of us which is to be an opposition. but from a legislative point of view, there is nothing happening? it is absolutely a zombie parliament. you have a tory party unable to function as a gum —— government. you have a labour party which cannot agree about their position in europe. they came yesterday... they failed to support their meps yesterday. that is not to. unable to nail it down so of course there is no legislation going through this place to at the moment, there is no common sense across the benches for the way forward which is why people in scotland are turning to the only way to protect their livelihoods is to be an independent na

back in late 50's, baseline record of carbon dioxide. set up observation in hawaii, start measuring the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and started making 57 and checked at it for 50 years until he died and they showed one man's data set, what happened in carbon dioxide. a couple of few points. remember, i said 280 where the ice, so already it was 30 parts per million higher than during the highs you see for the last 800,000 years. that's winter summer, winter summer. that's why it's so regular. look at the trend of the curve, what is most remarkable, this is data from 2 days ago, may third, 2019, 2 days ago 14 parts per million. started down here 300. so in those 59 years, we see increase, we showed you, now, for me, really important thing, one is i was born right then and i'm standing in front of you right now and i'm not that old, so we are now operating the planet. that's remarkable thing. i was talking to you about hundreds of thousands of years, now i'm talking about -- very important fact to realize, time is a ve

that's our baseline we start from the [inaudible] and go from there. what i'm concerned about in the thinking is that the people will say this is all a two step work. the two stepper is they all know that [inaudible] will exit and based on the protection benjamin sweeps in and says i like to engage in selective annexation not drastic, don't listen to what i said at 48 hours before election and of course i did not do the stuff for 13 years so i will not build bosnia on the mediterranean but here are places that even in the palestinian plant will be israeli. there should be consequences for say no to the president of the united states. that culture i am concerned is going to mean that people are affecting this they will say is based in the cape. this was all setting up predicate for benjamin netanyahu. here's what i wonder. if they could surprise us. it's been so discounted that you have to be a contrarian and say maybe he will surprise and say i'm not going to say no right away. maybe he even tried to preempt the plan if he's assumed this is coming out

i notice that three of the 21 projects as i was looking at the same statistic, and this would be baseline budget, current approved, and current projected, there are three projects where we show substantial changes in this statistic changing from 61% to 21%. and i'm not asking for specific explanations, but i was wondering if you could comment on how we could have that much of a zero discrepancy and then for three projects, you would have in my opinion a substantial one? and i did notice that the ones that had the discrepancies in the different definitions of the budget, they've been pretty much -- they were completed this year. >> so you're talking about the fire station project, i imagine. >> 36, 5, and 16, is that correct? >> yes. >> okay. 36, actually -- >> between 2010 and 2014. i kind of looked at them in bulk or for the -- >> sure. i can give you very concise -- >> i was just wondering. th -- wondering, this seems to have been a clean-cut of them, and then some of them had some substantial ones. >> so at a high level but hopefully sufficient to address your concern or the essence of

thus our baseline.rowth, inflation will return to do% over time. and it will be roughly symmetric. the decision to leave rates unchanged might have disappointed donald trump who i was before the meeting began on tuesday, tweeted that the economy would soar if the fed would lower interest rates by one point and resume quantitative easing. this comes as the white house is looking to nominate stephen moore to the board of governors. the books in doubt. if the chair was feeling the heat, he would they did show, saying he and his colleagues would continue to ignore political pressure. we don't feel like the data is pushing us in either direction. we will not hesitate if we do feel that is justified. that's a process, that's how we think about things, we don't bigger but otherfactors how we think about things, we don't bigger but other factors was not widowed that them mental decision—making, we don't discuss them. those inside hereunder about maintaining their independence, they have to walk a difficult tigh

that scenario has gone from being a long shot risk to being more of a baseline case. a story on the terminal today talking about how a full-blown trade war is now creeping in to become the baseline case for a lot of people. it is lighting a fire under those bottom-up analysts to dig in and figure it out. we will see a lot more research like that coming out on a stock by stock basis. vonnie: seems like it is getting harder and harder for everybody to hold their opinions. michael regan, thank you. hiatus, let brief us bring back david stubbs, jpmorgan private bank chief investment strategist. i was just mentioning jpmorgan and their analysis. can we rely on this trump put? if the market gets back, he will back off? david: i think, absolutely, there is a put in the market from two sources, what is the fed, one is trump. there is the fed caller and the trump caller. things get too good, trump will be more bellicose, things get bad, trump will back off. it is not just the amount of the decline, it is the nature. if you look at your bloomberg terminals, it is fairly orderly

it is a baseline, not pulling too many insights off that as yet. also, just to note when we see the medicare scores we present in this report, they are also a lot higher than you would think. that is because we have the commercial model for genir rating the risk scores so we are using a commercial model on the medicare population. having checked against the medicare model and the watson market scan database for benchmarks. from the u.s. norm our medicare risk scores are lower. working to see if we can get to western or california norm to get a sense how we are looking there. i wasn't able to have that for the board meeting today. we will bring that back. on page 4 you see the same sort of trend. here we are looking at perspective risk scores. this is a predictive score. again, based on the summary statements this is where we see slight reductions with our city plan score and we have got kaiser having much lower active and early retiree risk scores than in comparison to our other plans. >> i am going to keep asking questions. when you look, for exam

david: what does the baseline look like? where is it drawn?economics doing studies that if this continues, we are going to have 4/10 of a point of gdp taken out of the united states, and something worse in china. what does that due to to the market if that is true? burns: that certainly has an impact. that is the impact to gdp. if using about the broader american public and the cost borne by the american people if they do go ahead and impose tariffs on the rest of chinese imports, some estimates suggests you could have as much as $2000 a year of additional costs imposed on the average american family. if you take an american family and post your base expenses, that is a pretty big dent in discretionary income. that could also result in increases in inflation. really, tariffs by definition raise prices. the biggest long-term cost is probably the cost with respect to profit margins. really driven has stocks for the last 10 to 20 years has been expansion of profit margins because of the globalization of supply chains. trade wars, for all intents

as i indicated in my remarks, the economy is in a good place our baseline outlook is very constructive. solid growth, stronger market, gradual rise in inflation. veryer, let me be clear. we are attuned to potential risks and the outlook. if we saw a downside risk to the outlook, that would be a factor that would call for a more accommodative policy. so that is definitely something in the risk management area we would think about. peter: as you think about that, to generalize the question even four over the past year, interest rate increases, you anded about u-star, r-star, your general approach to the data dependency. what are some specific changes theye data -- it seems were leaning toward rate increases. an economist said, as the facts change, i change my mind. yourems you have changed mind. what is the data that has led you to change or predisposition? richard: i would point to a couple of fact there's. in the speech, thinking about reaction functions is useful. we are not handcuffed in one particular mathematical formula, but it's useful to think about what's happening in the data.

the fund baseline value so increasing from $50 million to $59 million in '22/'23, with a $3 million contribution every year to the baselane. so the service and funding plan for the four-year cycle, fiscal year 1920 to '22/'23, was informed both by historical funding levels and the key priorities that we identified. so to promote continued engagement and support, das will maintain relatively stable funding levels for existing services, and the ongoing growth of the digna fund will give us the opportunity to develop or expanding program. and other things are the mandatory cost, for example, the costs of doing business, and there are some funding requirements that are outlined in the legislation, which include pilot programs, neighborhood-initiated projects, and a allowance for administrative costs. those are all identified in the legislation. the final section of the report is tracking progress and measuring success because, of course, we want to make sure we're doing what we need to do and serving those we need to serve. we want to, you know, make sure we have our intended impact. so

. >> in order to be successful and have all the witnesses speak freely, there has to be a baseline, and this is what nancy pelosi is trying to establish right now, the baseline is full access to the mueller report and mueller himself. because we don't have some of the most basic questions answered, including why didn't you bring charges on obstruction, answer most likely because you can't indict a sitting president, i left that for you congress to pursue potentially through an impeachment inquiry. whatever other information he chooses not to discuss, you have a big whopper that comes out there at the top and you're able to bring in, draw in all of these other characters, but if they start doing that, start going down that road, i think they feel they lose their leverage and starting out with bringing in mueller and establishing that they have every right to the full mueller report because it has been so distorted -- >> by barr. >> -- by barr, in terms of saying no collusion, no obstruction, which is the opposite of what the report says. >> i want to ask you about the legal victories bec

by which to compare this to, but that's what we were trying to do was really establish the baseline here to be able to gauge the perception of the max as we move forward. obviously, the key result will be when we conduct this survey again which we intend to when the grounding is eventually lifted you know, to see how the perception changes between now and then so we didn't really know what to expect out of this survey. a little over 40% came back and responded that, you know, they would wait an extended period of time before they fly on the max. obviously it's possible for actions to be different than words here so we'll have to wait to see how it plays out. it was an important piece to put out in terms of trying to form the mosaic in and around what's going on with the max. >> the bull case has always been that the pipeline is so sticky and would take years for airlines to actually replace a max or an airbus order, but we're getting reports, iceland air in the most recent presentation put forth the scenario to replace the 737 maxes with airbus and all airbus fleet. at what point do

nine other governors outperformed that baseline by more from 2015 to 2018.good, but it is not great. it is not like he is the greatest of all time. he is good. he has a case to sell here. he won in montana, a state that trump won by 20 percentage points. >> it is not like the state is about to go blue, ever. >> no, no, no. this is the key thing to point out, governors races are different than a senate or house race. >> beto o'rourke is doing something of a campaign re-launch this week. you've taken a look at the numbers, and you've determined he is doing it because he has to. >> i would say, look, look at this. this is beto o'rourke's polling average nationally. when he entered mid-march, he was 10% of the hike. today, 4%. he dropped from third place to sixth place. he is behind joe biden, bernie sanders, kamala harris, pete buttigieg, and even elizabeth warren, who had been struggling early in the campaign and has risen a little. not just that. look at the state polling averages, or the best poll in the early states. 3% for o'rourke in iowa. 3% in new hamps

our baseline is that the economy is fine.ly have the economy strengthening next year, well the economy is pretty too slow. it is providing a backdrop of easy financial conditions. don't fight the fed on this. alix: all right. both of you will be sticking with us. we want to recap kellogg's' numbers. retail sales missed estimates, but earnings beat. overall looking at divesting 2% to 3%,l cut about but sees no changes for its guidance on its base business. of course, currently getting a new cfo that is going to succeed. that is kind of going nowhere in the premarket. 70%ng up, we are more than of the way through the earnings season. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: about 70% of companies on the s&p already out with earnings. market strategists have mixed marketsresults, and the interpreting a potential fed rate cut. rbc says you could see and overshoot. morgan stanley says 3000 is definitely a tell signal. accord says-- can near-term loss it's -- can accord says losses are capped at 5%. >> last year we were o

at applicant's age, their english proficiency, employment, educational background that's just a baseline figure here. applicants can be boosted based on how much money the job will pay and also applicants go under a health screening, a criminal background check and the white house wants to raise the number of immigrants college educated from what is 40% now to 71% over 10 years the white house says this plan will raise gdp by 600 billion, but that's not the only play on the table here. senator lindsey graham on capitol hill today rolling out his own plan that he says will fix the humanitarian crisis at the southern border, people will not be able to claim asylum any more at the border under his plan, but instead, will go to the u.s. consolate in their home country. graham says that his plan is better than the presidents because his is built to be passed as law. >> the white house's plan is not designed for laws. this is designed for laws. the white house plan is trying to unite the republican party around border security and i'm trying to get some relief to our border patrol agents and t

thus, our baseline view remains that with a strong job market and continued growth, inflation will return to 2% over time, and then be roughly symmetric around our longer-term objective. jonathan: everyone is sick to death of hearing that word, transitory, but was that a message to the market? andy: i think that is a message that the fed is on hold. robert brought up the situation in europe. having zero rates, massive liquidity injections have not helped to correct those imbalances. the fed wants to stay with as much dry powder as possible so that when the time comes, it has room to maneuver to cut rates prematurely, reducing their ability when they need to react. you will see transitory data, goldilocks numbers like we saw this morning, but you don't need to do anything. there is lots of market expectation, lots of noise, various tweets coming out. things can take as long as they are and we don't have to do anything. jonathan: do you expect the 10-year to remain in a tight trading range over the coming months? andy: i think so. you struggle to see it moving too aggressively until the dat

basically a full-blown trade war is shifting from a risk to a baseline for many.it shifting that way for you? risk thats a great the u.s. will put tariffs on all of those imports. china will do some retaliation on the exports that the u.s. exports. it will stop there. this would be a bad result. what i think is more important thatat it will come to because the tech war is permanent. the u.s. doesn't want to give away leverage by accommodating on the trade front. the other problem is, mr. trump is facing elections. he won with very narrow margins in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. trailing bothis mr. biden and mr. sanders in those states. , he isly has to consider betting on this not determining a u.s. recession. that is his real bet. this goes-- manus: back to how much pain he's willing to tolerate. 5% drawdown inequities is his pain threshold, we guess. what the u.s. is doing, knee capping huawei. the national security council is led by john bolton. ei soey want to kill huaw they have a huge political 2020 statement? technology america first, we beat the c

it's up to government to come in, break up the company, and set this baseline of standards.el a sense of anger, as i say in the piece, that facebook has become this. a sense of personal responsibility about it, but to me, the solution has to be government stepping up, not mark, per se. >> so facebook's response, they accept the success comes accountability, but you don't enforce accountability for calling for the breakup of a successful american company. do they have a point? do you have to break it up? is there something short of it that would make sense to you? >> probably unsurprisingly, i disagree. we have a long tradition in the united states of when companies get too big, too powerful, and become unaccountable, we say hey, we like free markets. we like markets when they're dynamic and fair. and we want competition. because competition does enforce accountability. if you don't like a burger that you get at one restaurant, you have ten others down the street to choose from. and thus the free market works. that's how it's supposed to work, at least, but when one company g

. >> we're racing against the clock to generate a baseline for how the animals behave. they are already compromised in a big way and the e come system is. we need to be down here doing this right now. >> for people at home they'll be thinking whales are important. we love whales. they're beautiful to look at. it's important they remain on this earth. but how does it affect me at home? >> they represent the health of an ocean eco system. to be able to have enough food to support a whale, let alone a population of whales and as citizens of the planet regardless of where you live, we have an obligation to let things be. >> a landmark report released by the u.n. revealed that humans are already altering the world at an unprecedented pace. over 1 million plants and animal species are at risk of extinction. here in the peninsula many penguin populations are on the decline. the loss of sea ice is affecting their primary food source yrngs and the researchers are using the latest technologies available from satellite tags and drones to determine how declining kril is affecting t

coagulation so the patient loses less blood germ surgery something of that $36.00 degrees is the baseline temperature for blood platelet function platelets react to bleeding by clumping thereby initiating a blood clot researchers at the university hospital in frankfurt have developed a small heart lung machine that helps limit blood loss after surgery lost can also be limited by taking smaller amounts of blood during tests. nation blood management programs can help possibly. cut blood transfusions by 50 percent. they also ensure the hospitals have sufficient reserves for patients such as was left which we definitely will need donor blood. and was in the we've noticed that your hemoglobin levels are on the low side. in him. she requires a transfusion after her hip operation for some patients it can be a lifesaver so every drop of blood matters. i'm still in burlap with professor talbot. black is also very important for the diagnosis of rare diseases can you give me some examples yes this example is for a new kettle nuria it is east caused by this order of amino acid metabolism children aff

there are a baseline of fatalities which needs to be eradicated.be eradicated. you think the issue is an experience and lack of preparation? not they are quite happy to take people regardless of experience. we have this ridiculous situation when people go onto the ice wall who have never put crampons on before, they put them on even back to front. the ice wall is a very treacherous part of the mountain, the fishing you get to coming from base camp. what are the evening doing there? you said to them it's ok? people who are rich enough to effectively pay their way 7 enough to effectively pay their way hey enough to effectively pay their way up? they market is fairly split, actually. there are people who are trying to pay as little as possible to go to everest. i'm afraid, those are the people who sadly died. do you any qualifications? we have a lwa ys you any qualifications? we have always said that, our preference is that someone has already been to another 8000 metre peak so you know they will acclimatise. you know they have been in tough situation

this fourth amendment floor should be a baseline consideration. congress goes a scaffolding off that constitutional floor, we have to think about the technology not just through the lens of today but with an eye toward expanding surveillance technologies that will link and share data in ways that will reshape the existing power dynamics of government and the people. we are not just talking about technological hardwood, cameras, hardware, cameras, computers and tools. legislation must approve privacy protections with an eye toward the sophistication of the systems of surveillance. finally, this fourth amendment questions must be coupled with civil rights and fundamental fairness when it comes to public safety protections. the burden of surveillance technology has never been shared across socioeconomic or racial groups. withess needs to regulate racial justice in mind. in my written testimony, i laid out the different types of facial recognition that congress needs to address today. monitoring without any into the lives -- any individualized suspici

on the mound for the nats, one of the few bright sp in the fourth, dozier at third and down the baselinend easy out. no. because check out this slick slide. fancy ren the base and nats a up two. now a little later, same inning, gomeslears the bases. they were loaded and instead with that -- bases-clearing double and a five-run inning and corbin threw a shutout a five k's and one walk with a win of the season. >>> and the season opener taking on the connecticut sun, washington up early. former terp christy tolliver he howing off t handles. that is likeerika back in the day, huh. right? boom. she had 11 points. another terp, alyssa thomas had a game high 23 and the mystics fall in their sean opener 84-69. >> off the handle. >>> wayne rooney and d.c. united taking on the revolution. second half, revs with ten men but score first asas he h the header. new england up 1-nil. 90th minute, and rooney after a hand ball and theer equaliz the goalie gets it. didn't matter. the ninth of the year makes it 1-1 and e unitedcapes with the draw. >>> and college la crosse, virginia against acc rival duke

we suspect that some transitory factors may be at work, thus our baseline view remains with a strongarket and continued growth inflation will return to 2% overtime and then be roughly symmetric around our longer term objective. at the start of the year a number of crosscurrents presented risks to the outlook including weak global growth, particularly in china and europe, the possibility of a disruptive brexit, and uncertainty around unresolved trade negotiations. while concerns remain in all of these areas it appears risks have moderated somewhat. global financial conditions have eased, supported supported in ms around the world by accommodative shift in monetary policy and in some cases fiscal policy recent data from china and europe show some improvement and the prospect after disorderly brexit has been pushed off for now. further there are reports of progress in the trade talks between the united states and china. the committee views these developments along with the outlook for continued growth, a strong job market and muted inflation pressures as consistent with continued patien

direction so we do, of course, though, as a routine matter, as you know, we look not only at our baseline we also look at alternative simulations both better and worse. we ask ourselves what the appropriate policy response would be but that's all we do, and i would just say that we're -- >> shifting gears, i wondered if you could flesh out, i know you're describing it as a small technical adjustment, but on the ioer federal funds spread, give us a sense of why it matters whether or not this breaches the upper limit a little bit is there any feed through to broader credit conditions and financial conditions that you worry about, is it simply a matter of the fed showing it can control what it says it's controlling? and i have a followup. >> so a small temporary deviation outside of the range would really carry no -- wouldn't be important as your question suggests. but we do think it's important that we be able to control the federal funds rate and generally keep it within the range that's good monetary control so we think it's important, and we have the tools to do that, so we've used them