el niÑo pattern. we also have very low sea highs in highs--sea ice in the arctic. so the battle between and the arctic is really going to be interesting this winter to see which dominates some suggest el niÑo will be very powerful in the early parts of the winter. >> when you look at the indicate at a coming in from around the world, what do models and past performance tell us? >> it speaks very accurately. what we see with this el niÑo, and mind you every el niÑo is different, and there is activity occurring that could effect the el niÑo. we get more precipitation. caller temperatures in the southeast regions of the u.s. we get dryer conditions, warmer conditions in the northeast. in the northeast we're looking at a double-dipped winter, we like to call it, where you get the storminess in the beginning, a dry winter in the middle and then it gets stormy in the end. when we look globally we look at the commodities being prepared over wintertime. the further northern we get we look at russia and china, more dry conditions, less pre pre- pre-precipitation el niÑo makes things more extreme