ben emmons, are there any hawks left? ben: i think there are.hink james bullard may be is one of them, even though he's now considered a dove yet i think a hawk is about risk management. they are looking at inflation above target. they think it is transitory, but they don't want to take a full chance on it. so there is some level of hawkish and us or hawk -- of hawkishness there. so you cannot be a traditional hawk. you've got to be more flexible. tom: how does the theory you write about that our listeners and viewers angst about, how does that fold over into market reaction? ben: i think the market at the moment is taking the fed on its word that you are dealing with inflation that could moderate over time, so that results in a flatter yield curve, but you can't go that's flat that you are in economy still above the growth trend. that would be strange, with the yield curve coming closer to inversion. so i think the fed can normalize somewhat against the backdrop that inflation is not as transitory as it may seem, but at least not as sticky eith

lisa: van emmons came out and -- ben emmons pointed to a correlation between the 10 year yield and the approval rating of the president, there is somewhat of a linkage over the past months. the idea that as his popularity wanes you are seeing treasury yields go down. correlation is not causation -- tom: there is the chicago. lisa: really? we are going right there? there is a coming together of a lot of factors leading to this feeling. jonathan: the outlook feels like it is on a knife's edge. if we got a group of investors together we could have a consensus but it would have low conviction. tom: we have guests with conviction. yesterday they marched down gdp, down to 6.5. i think the conviction is there. i want to emphasize we are all in shock and we have to deal with that. frankly, i would go so far as to say maybe it is a new jackson hole. jonathan: we will head down to washington in about 10 minutes. here is the price action this wednesday morning. negative a little bit more than .1% on the s&p 500 after yesterday's slide, major drawdown. in the bond market yields unchanged on the 10