tom: i love that we had ben laidler optimistic. douglas cast

jonathan: that is the call from ben laidler.york city this morning, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. that ecb decision is moment away. here's the state of play in the market. s&p futures down 14, negative about 0.3%. in the bond market, yields lower about basis point for the fx market. euro-dollar positive, $1.1830. tom: the currency market is the litmus paper for the global system, really going nowhere over the last number of weeks. maybe some fractional dollar, but a $1.17 -- dollar weakness, but a one dollar 70's handle, you wonder if you're going to see that. jonathan: yields in a couple basis points on the italian 10 year to about 73 basis points. let me guide you through the next 45 minutes because this can get really messy, and we will work through it together. in about 10 or 15 seconds, you get an ecb rate decision. going to look for guidance about the pace of purchases within the pepp program. about 45 minutes from now, we get a ne

malik, ben laidler, anna han. but then we heard in the opening from blackrock, they are stating the bull case. jonathan: the beauty is that we can do single names as well. i am taking about the nikes of this world. it was a miss, but a supply constrained mass. do you want buy names hit by supply constrained stories because their demand is still robust and could persist into next year? tom: there's the optimistic tone. the vix out over 20, 21 earlier. 20.60 on the vix now. jonathan: your equity market comes in 0.75% on the s&p. crude, let's sit on that for a moment. $76 on wti, $80 on brent. bank of tom: you interpolate it outcome a $3.94 a gallon of gas is one eyeball on where you go as you go to $100 a barrel. should we state the bull case right now? state the bull case where this swoon is an opportunity. >> earnings growth we think can be in the high single digits, but the concern today is whether yields are moving too far, too fast. the issue is that as monetary policy becomes contractionary instead of expansio

tom: right now, ben laidler with us and jay pelosky as we switch over to fixed income, ira jersey , running income strategy for bloomberg intelligence. we are coming up on $1.5 trillion. worry that, worry long-term, were a short term. which part of the yield curve right now matters to ira jersey? ira: i am looking at the five year and the seven year sector because that will really get a clue as to how far the federal reserve will ultimately hike rates once they do. watched that for clues as to if the market is really worried that the fed is getting behind the curve and it is going to hike much faster and further than they have been expecting before. so five-year, seven year i think will be the key here. lisa: do you buy that a lot of the move in the treasury market has been driven by europe, by inflation expeditions there, and by the bank of england more hawkish than people expected? ira: not only the bank of england being more hawkish, and certainly gilts have been leaving the move, but also remember lagarde at the european central bank was also a little more hawkish. not that we are expec

ben laidler outlines the fundamentals of the market, and savita subramanian is focused on the bond market. jonathan: it's an upgrade from 3800, but nowhere near some of the price targets out there. into next year, we've heard calls of 5k. so vita -- savita looking for 4600. look at the labor market. i can give you some data that shows you this labor market is tight. i can give you some data that shows this labor market is loose. that debate is going nowhere anytime soon. tom: the distinction on ecb is simple. u.s., maximum stimulus. ecb, far less stimulus. jonathan: capital economics, their line came out a couple of minutes ago that sums up things perfectly. the ecb slows purchases, but will keep policy ultra-loose. the real test for that is in the italian bond market. the italian bond market is rallying. tom: what does that mean for the bundesbank? jonathan: right now, let's see what you've got. can you make sure the flex ability -- the flexibility in this pandemic emergency purchase program does not get folded into the asset purchase program next year? tom: the smartest thing i've heard