kallum pickering, senior economist, berenberg is with us. voices are rising in terms of concern about the length of a downturn. if there is a trade dispute between europe and the united states, how perilous could it be the german economy? we are just kissing growth in recession. the germandamentally economy is in good shape, the problem it has is it has a large earns 30%ector and from exports. because it has such a large external sector, if you get global weakness, you get seepage into the domestic economy and mastic spending. you look at germany, ok fundamentally, in good shape, but vulnerable to a lot of risks. unless risks they'd, the german economy will not gain significant momentum, and the res same goes for the rest of that european economy. nejra: spring could follow a gray winter, it is contingent on things going right. one thing that needs to go right is? need to not go wrong. pausexit goes ok, if the stabilizes china, central banks will not spoil it, as long as we get progress on the trade front, that you do enough to stop weighing