. >> three cuts for the ecb according to berenberg. interesting chat.e will continue our coverage on the ecb rates decision happening d later today. the economist at berenberg. thank you. >>> let's more to china. exports rose 7.1% on the year. that's well ahead of the expected 1.9% increase. it comes amid a recovery in global trade driven by the electronic sector. imports rose by 3.5%. that is more than double the expectations. >>> a new landscape of higher monetary policy is transforming global bond markets at a pace not seen in decades according to the latest oecd global debt report which projects sovereign debt areas will hit a record high in 2024. it expects it to rise to $15.8 trillion this year. surpassing the 2020 high. don't miss the interview with the secretary-general of the oecd mathias cormann. a first on cnbc interview coming up at 11:15 cet. >>> coming up on the show, we'll be hearing from the ceo nikolai setzer. don't miss that interview. it is a first on cnbc. you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter or a human cannonball... or s

joining me now is kallum pickering, senior economist, berenberg.

joining me now is kallum pickering, senior economist, berenberg. are you expecting inflation to slow in february? yes, we should get quite a significant slowdown, probably — welcome in the mid—30s, between 3.2 and 3.5 present, it will be good news down from four core inflation which is what the bank of england is about amidships at energy, it will probably come in around four there will still be a big difference between this but there will be significant progress. there will be significant progress-_ there will be significant rouress. ~ ., , progress. do you think anything could bring _ progress. do you think anything could bring forward _ progress. do you think anything could bring forward the - progress. do you think anything could bring forward the bank. progress. do you think anything could bring forward the bank of| could bring forward the bank of england's decision to cut interest rates because you think it's unlikely, partly because it looks as if, actually, the economy is starting to grow at the start of the year, so some of the weakness we

berenberg's kallum pickering. the good news is we did not see bad news.lum: yes, more evidence that the u.s. economy is humming along nicely, may slow in the first half of the year. it looks like it won't wind buddhist slowdown. jonathan: we have seen a story from the federal reserve. how synchronize do you think because there going to be? kallum: the risk is that the fed goes less rather than more. we were discussing what this question around the yield curve but no efficient means. we have to ask which press is wrong, the 10 year the short end? short and is 150 basis points too hard but you need more of the long end. it is possible we are adjusting here to the higher growth, higher inflation environment. we are having a little bit of a problem here and central banks are having it, understanding what is the normal rate of real gdp, where will it settle, and what interest rate you need to balance the economy. all of the upside risks in the u.s. who would have been open for seem to be playing out on unlimited growth, productivity growth, demand, the governm