ben bernanke came to washington is a federal reserve governor and chair the fed from 2000 x to 2014. janet yellen of berkeley served as effect governor and share central bank from 2014 in 2018. jay powell has chaired the central bank for the last 11 months. chair powell is not an economist. what happens when a lawyer walks into a conference with 13,000 economists? the fence line is, we're about to find out. let's dive in first with you chair powell. it was only two weeks ago, markets have been volatile. pessimism.n real we also saw a blockbuster jobs report this morning. you have been optimistic about the economy. is that changing? what is your outlook? .eil: thank you very much out of about 2018 and then turn to the outlook. 2018, was a good year for the u.s. economy. most of the hard data we see coming and remains quite solid. you mentioned this morning's job report, we had 312,000 payroll unemployment remaining above 4% for four nights now. you later printed patient picking up and heading to the upside. to have wages which are contin e ing to grow. for me at this time, it is not r

bernanke: right now, i do not see anyone's hiding behind curtain. but some slowing does seem likely. a good thing that the fed has the flexibility to respond in a way that will be responsive to the data, to the markets, and manages the risks that are on both sides of this. of you know,three all too well, being federal reserve chair is not just about economics. it is about navigating the political system. that task is become trickier for your successor. chair powell, the president seems to be unhappy with the rate increases. they are has been reporting that he has considered trying to fire you. which would raise legal questions. to put it mildly. you received any direct communication from the white house expressing this displeasure? [laughter] expressing displeasure? any unhappiness with the rates, or destruction -- or discussion or changes in your job? jay: no i have not. ,>> [laughter] jay: i have not. neil: there is a question of a face and face meeting. would you accept that invitation? has beenews, nothing scheduled. i would say meetings between

bernanke, you have become president later today, dr. yellen, you take that a year from now my colleagues reported on accusations of harassment and abusive behavior by roland frier at harvard they say they received tips about bad behavior by other economists since the story was published. my question is what more needs to happen to ensure the economics profession is welcoming to all types of people, that abusive behavior isn't tolerated, and what more can aa and other institutions and universities do to make that the case. >> economics certainly has a problem. we have a very low ratio of women in terms of our professional ranks and unfortunately a reputation for hostility towards women and minorities, seems to be a reason women choose not to be economists that's bad for them and for the profession we're losing a major source of talent and insight as you mention, i am becoming the president, janet will follow me, i think this should be the top priority we are currently, aea is currently conducting survey of membership on professional clim

bernanke he and dr. yellen, you both had excellent academic careers and made decisions to move into public service at various stages. in the standard, you get a phd and go to university and try to get tenure. that's not the usual steppingstone. can you reflect on what role public service played in your own career and evolution and what you recommend so younger scholars trying to understand should i try to do a year at ca or a fellowship with the fed? dr. yellen: it was something that figured in my thinking as something i would like to have as part of my career from my undergraduate days. it was a motivation for me to study economics. i hoped i would have a chance to serve at the fed, to serve at the council of economic advisers. i have always seen economics as a body of understanding and work that is highly relevant to the design of public policy and felt economists can contribute to making the world a better and more successful place by helping to apply that knowledge. it was something i always wanted t

think bernanke and yellen will be sitting on the stage with him, like god, i'm sorry. david: i know what it feels like to be in your job, i know what you are going through but i'm glad i don't have to do it. andmberg's cameron crise peggy --, thank you for being with us. stay with the work for live coverage of jerome powell eking alongside former fed chair ben bernanke at the annual meeting of the american economic association in atlanta at 10:18. and a reminder, you can use all the charts we just used and more on your terminal. you can browse recent features and even save our charts. coming up here, we will have more on this morning's rally veteranve sharon, investments portfolio manager. that's coming up next, this is bloomberg. ♪ t, this is bloomberg. ♪ emma: this is bloomberg daybreak, i'm emma chandra. the largest ever pharmaceutical deal will also be a big payday for bankers. the company has agreed to pay $74 billion in cash and stocks. in estimates, bankers that morgan stanley, ever core and dial will receive as much as $85 million in seeds. goodlatte beats the

ben bernanke came to washington as the federal reserve governor and shared the fed -- and chaired the fed from 2006-2013. janet yellen served as the fed governor and president of the san francisco fed and chairman from 2013-2018 and jay powell is a former treasury official and has chaired the central bank for the last 11 months. chair powell is not an economist. he has a law degree and this sounds like this the start of a joke. what happens when a lawyer walks into a room with 13,008 economists? the punchline is we are about to find out. let's dive in first with you chair powell. since the december fomc meeting two weeks ago, the market has been volatile and we have seen past -- pessimism and economic surveys and sub i blockbuster jobs report this morning. is your optimism about the economy changing? >> thank you very much it's great to be here as always and great to be with janet and ben. i will talk about 2018 and then turn to the outlook that was a good year for the united states and most of what we see coming in and is solid with ongoing momentum through 2019 you you mentioned the

bernanke, the taper tantrum?general clearly what the fed does has a big effect globally. so often the invoices of the trade are in dollars and international borrowing lending is typically in dollars so we recognize those effects from powerful we took seriously in the crisis in particular our role as global lender of last resort. but we conducted currency swaps with 14 central banks, including four emerging market central banks to make sure they had access to dollars to help manage the shortages of dollars globally so we served in some sense as a global lender of last resort so we were quite aware of these international factors. the taper tantrum, this is an example of where we might do better i think the -- there was communication concern there in that when we announced a contingent and gradual slowdown in our purchases, it wasn't so much that slowdown as it was the inference taken that this meant an imminent increase in short term interest rates and we saw the forward curve shifting up immediately in other curre

he is there with yellen and he ben bernanke as well. we wail wait to hear what he says about the jobs report. liz: you make a great point. federal reserve is kind of mixed in it is narrative and its messaging. in december after jerome powell spoke, new york fed president john williams had to come out clarify two days later what jerome powell was saying. it is about the narrative coming out of the fed. what is your narrative, fed, given what larry kudlow said. you're meeting dual mandate. the markets could have given that to say no more rate hikes until next year. i'm not sure odds of a rate cut. fed funds future slice of that market. ashley: let's listen hear what mr. powell has to say. >> we've seen pessimism in economic surveys. we saw blockbuster jobs report this morning. you have been optimistic about the economy. is that changing? what is your outlook for the

been burning key -- ben bernanke chaired the fed from 2006 to 2014. janet yellen served as the chair of central bank from 2014-18. jerome powell chaired the central bank the last 11 months. he is not an economist, this sounds like the start of a joke. what happens when a lawyer walks into a conference with 13,000 economists? we are about to find out. let's dive in first with you, chair powell. since the december fomc meeting market has been volatile, we've seen economic surveys, and a blockbuster jobs report this morning. you've been optimistic about the economy. is that changing? what is your outlook for 2019 and beyond? >> great to be here with you and janet and ben. i will talk about 2018 and then turn to the outlook. 2018 by so many measures was a good year for the economy and most of the hard data we see coming in remains quite solid and suggests ongoing momentum heading into 2019. you mentioned the jobs report. for those who haven't seen it we had 312,000 payroll jobs added, very strong number, unemployment remaining below 4% for 9 months, the l

tom: chair yellen, chairman bernanke, bernanke has been adamant that the balance sheet will be fine.es: he is right and the way things have been playing out has been validating that. a couple of years ago you might have been worrying. taking assets out pushes long-term rates down. that has not happened. so important because carney has got a small matter like brexit. for mario draghi, this is an issue, isn't it? guy: it is but it is not draghi's problem, is it? draghi is about to exit. successor is going to have to deal with the balance sheet. beld the fed like rates to higher than where they are now? would they expect rates to be higher than where they are now given the length of the cycle? james: there are a lot of things going on, it is not just their policies, it is the global economy. they probably expected rates would be moving higher because the analysis of qe indicated they thought qe pushed rates down. they are probably surprised rates are not moving up. i think they wish the economy stays where it is and this expansion continues, in contrast to every single cycle in the past

ben bernanke and janet yellen interview jay powell on friday. market seem to be rooting on a hike in 2019. are they correct? >> president trump calls a meeting of top congressional leaders after suggesting he is open to a deal to end the shutdown. president brazil's sworn in, can he deliver on his pledge to end the country's economic malaise? manus: it is 8:00 a.m. across the emirates. this is bloomberg daybreak middle east. tracy: i'm tracy alloway in hong kong. asian investors are hoping for better portions in 2019, less to say they might have to wait until the chinese new year starts in february. the hang seng index down more than 2% in hong kong, off the back of some very down factory numbers that with had out from across asia. fall sochina showing a confirming the contraction we saw in the official figure over the weekend, taiwan's pmi falling to 47.7 in december. we had malaysia's figure falling to 46.8, the worst figure since the series began. trade tensions clearly starting to factor into the real economy in asia and the question for inv

from fed chair jay powell he is sitting down with former fet chief fed chiefs janet yellen and ben bernanken atlanta. we'll have live coverage starting at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. >>> later on this afternoon, we'll hear from the chairman of the council of economic advisers, kevin hassett, he joins us live at 2:00 p.m. eastern time it is a packed day keep it here on cnbc >>> coming up on the show, the china factor more on that big news crossing just this past hour. china cutting its reserve requirements as fears mount of a major economic slowdown over there. so just how bad are things in china? we'll get an expert's take >>> and doubling down, president trump digs in on a border wall as the government shutdown enters its second week we're live in washington with those details enwh "worldwide exchange" returns after this break. ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering. my mom washes the dishes... ...before she puts them in the dishwasher. so what does the dishwasher do? cascade platinum does the work for you, prewashing and removing stuck-on foods, the first time. wow, that's clean! cascade

. >> doctor bernanke you worked for bush and obama how does your interaction work when it works well how does that happen quick. >> i had a great relationship with president bush and also obama and both of them were very respectful and of my short-term interest rate decisions in fact, obama commented that he was criticized abroad for the fed action. [laughter] so i had a good relationship with both of them and it worked well that the federal reserve goals are set by congress and accountable to congress to become more and more transparent over time and that the fed be accountable and transparent that the best outcomes occur if that is made in pursuit to be done independently looking at the long-term goals of the fed. i think janet and i were very lucky presidents bush and obama were respectful of that. and the relationship with the treasury secretary to keep them well-informed that is one - - an ideal arrangement but i would separate some of those issues from monetary policy. >> do you see president trumps approach as problematic? . >> yes. i think it would be better off but the fed m

in the pocket of the bankers it's the powell put just like the greenspan put the yellen put the bernanke you put of course if interest rates were higher at the federal reserve bank property prices would not be increasing at twenty thirty percent a year that would be more effective then you know this this shows you this whole neoliberal sort of virtue signaling sort of economics where a lot of progressives will say they want zero percent interest rates that that is good but you're seeing the absolute devastation of populations the rise of homelessness across america is directly tied to these property bubbles and these you know the restrictions on building new new right there are in control idea is a symptom of that because the gallows is the upstream is the fed and i refuse to act the fed because they don't think money is something they want to talk about over there in the progressive party it's been. them goes are signaling their social justice credentials and bona fides as being n.p.r. listening granola eaters it's about the central back to you fred it is yes it may be a o.c. we'll talk

and that's a that's something different than what everybody expected out of bernanke and yellen but it happens to be the correct policy the other thing that's interesting is that he did a press conference for the first time i actually heard a commentator say that the fed does not in fact heavy two percent inflation mandate the fed's mandate is stable prices in his arrogated to itself the interpretation of two percent inflation paul volcker not too long ago popped up on in the media and said oh by the way that's illegal because the mandate is stable prices stable of course means unchanging doesn't mean two percent inflation that got buried the media hasn't gone anywhere near it i've heard it exactly watts but it actually showed up in the in the press conference and that to me was quite a shift because the financial media has for years bought into this two percent percent inflation target and you know let's read let's run a little hot because it's been cold and heard some of that in a press conference too but then i heard a little saying wait a minute this is kind of an artificial thing

get anything of substance from powell, just given the format, right, on the stage with yellen and bernanke know how it was going to unfold, and right off the bat, like five minutes in, the market was jumping, dow up 600 within five minutes >> clearly got the message, right? that's important, and it just gives us a little bit more confidence that they know what they're doing, or they're trying to figure it out along the way and if they're going to raise rates, they're going to make sure the economic data supports that that is what is so important so i think all the things, employment today, the pboc, if we get any progress on trade, can you imagine what the market will actually do >> let's see how far we can carry. pete, final trade? >> i take a look at what we talked about yesterday, which we didn't get much of a chance to go into, the big deal of the day, the celgene deal. look what is happening with biotech. nasdaq, a lot of the names are nasdaq names biotech, biogens >> you usually get some great things around that >> i bought jpmorgan speaking of and i mentioned it was a gift under 100

. >> jerome powell spoke on a panel alongside janet yellen and ben bernanke where he said the fomc was always ready to ship policy if needed. >> we reached a different conclusion. we wouldn't hesitate to make a change. if we came to the view that the normalization or any other aspect of normalization was part of the problem, we would not hesitate to make a change. >> joining me now is the chief economist at somber financial. the debate for the market is between data and rhetoric. it isook at the data, was blowout as the headlines suggested? it as blowout a set of data as the headline suggests? >> it is backward looking. markets are focused on the outlook. good and jobs rate was wages are up, it's interesting jerome powell decided to say we are ready to listen to markets. said that, he is not at all. he has been steadfast about looking at inflation and unemployment. >> to a certain extent, we have been using this chart. the market is pricing in no hikes for 2019. rate cuts and 2020. -- ingument would be 2020. the argument would be that this set of data, perhaps the market is in denial.

>> well, again, recessions or expansions don't die of old age, as ben bernanke reminded us. it, that economic expansions die of some sort of catalyst. so the catalysts that are sort of looming on the horizon is something that could probably hit us in 2020 if not in 2019. in fact, one of the things i was very impressed with, many people were looking for weakness in the cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction, and both of those sectors' unemployment came in pretty -- neil: i was shocked by that. construction, 38,000. manufacturing up 32,000. retail up 24,000. in the decades we have known each other and talked, i always feel that whatever downdraft comes in a market is because of a bubble that was building that most people didn't see coming until it was too late. you can talk about real estate, talk about some say today, what happened in the bond markets. are there bubbles that you watch, are there problems or people returning to ways that worry you, what? >> i really don't see a lot of bubbles in the equity market. the federal reserve puts out a weekly index on fi

second, congressional leaders really behind closed doors did a lot to encourage bernanke and paulson. they very much said, well, go ahead and use the powers you have in your creative ways to the maximum ability because we don't want to go and try to do something through legislation and fail. you come to us as a last resort. go out and act strongly on your own in the first instance. it's also worth pointing out that as a matter of challenging financial crisis responses it's more difficult because oftentimes the government is giving things away rather than taking them from anybody. so if you are giving things away, you are not violating anyone's rights. it's harder to get standing to challenge those actions in court. and, finally, you know, it's interesting how little the public actually cares about disregard of legal limits if the programs work out well. oftentimes, actions taken that were very clearly the letter of the law were the ones that made them much more upset in 2008 and 2009. so i'll leave it at that. [ applause ] >> next up is wendy. she is the george, jay, and kathleen wate

we will wait for the powell-bernanke discussion.y the president matamela against the boys and girls in parliament, there is a relief. the budget numbers have been given to the market. these equities take a knock. when does the rest of the curve in germany -- you look across the yield curve in germany, it went negative. now looking at the bunds, negative territory. do you turn toward zero in 2019? is that how you protect yourself? asian markets were right for risk off. yvonne man has the detail. got thisgly pmi's we morning, pressure point here today, the worst opening for the hang seng in 20 years. shares down 2.8%. down by 1.4%. you mention the manufacturing pmi, all in contractionary territory. much weighing on these markets to kick off 2019. the fiery liquor maker in china, despite the red we are seeing, a drop 1.5% today. profit targets for 2019 still positive.still stay we are seeing casino stocks fall , down 6% in hong kong. we did get the december gaining revenues, but some say that is short-lived. we are saying headwinds her

getting nothing on a treasury bill or savings account, i think i will take the advice of then bernanke, the then chairman of the federal reserve in 2009, 2010, the russell index, baseball inside index, the smaller companies, kind of russell er stocks, has been doing as well said chairman bernanke in a "washington post" op-ed advising people they think they should invest in stocks. stocks have been doing well. who will tell those previously riskover savers, well, it's time to get out? so you ask who were the culprits and i think the public in its inattention is one, is guilty to a degree of our financial -- collective financial sins. i think our financial stewards are guilty on wall street. i think that the government is guilty as well. so that means that nobody's guilty, right? [laughter] brian: you wrote in "the weekly standard" article that $7 trillion of gross federal debt came on the books in 1986 four years after the first. $5 trillion was the grand total in 1996, $10 trillion in 2008, nd $20 trillion in 2017. i guess as a journalist i would say, how is that possible? ou said the

that's when she was vice chair >> and also ben bernanke who was the better chair >> it's a at this -- it's a tie. >> there were several candidates that were interested by the president. >> i met him for the first time when i was hair. >> how long did you spend with him? >> less than an hour i can't remember exactly how long it was. >> so after he was over, did you say, i got that, i did that pretty well and i'm going to get this job or you didn't know? >> i didn't know i felt like the interview had gone well. >> so who called you to say it went well? >> i don't remember. who would have called me i would have heard from my other contacts in the white house whether it went well or not. it was a process that went on and on there were various people being interviewed. i had no expectation that i would be chosen. >> okay. so today as the fed works generally, if you could revise the federal reserve act, what would you change it was drafted 105 years ago what would you change? >> the federal reserve act, the fed was founded, the law passed in 1913. but the act was very deeply amended. in 193

ben bernanke and janet powell or flanking him, and he said is a strong report.so said very important, the fed can be patient now. it can have patience as it sees what -- let's listen. >> there is no preset path for policy. mutedrticularly with the inflation readings we have seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves. but we are always prepared to shift the stance of policy and shift it significantly in order to promote the statutory goals of employment and prices. kathleen: inflation is still low, we can move quickly if we need to. he also said in terms of changing the balance sheet, reduction plan, people criticize him for stating the obvious, it was on autopilot, but it can be changed. he said they would change if needed. so interesting what he was asked about this by president trump on the fed and on him here he was asked about stepping down, would you? let me run this clip. it is impressive. >> the president ask you to resign, would you do it? >> no. kathleen: there you go. no matter what happens he has made the stand for t

but danny just because some guy up until until bernanke is because i'm going to be good but the but need to be to everybody and i want to be. the police station the city of portland we get enough with joe know they're going to need someone you've got to have because he has a counseling get out get out get in go short out get on the only media but i'm going to say when. i was meant to be tired. of opening up a new office and. i'm going to mr the citizen to. focus on the.

bernanke's i guess it turns nice and pink again and looks a lot fresher than it really is. not so long ago this kind of fraud would have been time consuming to detect but now with a d.n.a. fingerprint detecting adulterated food can take just a few seconds. that's our goal we want to implement a system across europe and establish a large database with many authentic food samples and genetic fingerprints that will make it easier to detect food fraud on the global market. until now the food counterfeiters have always been a step ahead but thanks to the new databases that could soon change. the d.n.a. database will food starts to uncover fraud committed on a massive scale it's a pressing topic because food adulteration has now apparently grown common all over the world as we heard from you on facebook. from chile writes that fritchey says they're now contain plenty of chemicals but practically no fruit. in kenya kenneth complains that honey is mixed with mashed right bananas to increase profits. while who need it from costa rica's says that lots of what sold is natural brown su

david: so she became chair when you are there, and also ben bernanke. so who was the better chair?] jay: it is a tie. [laughter] david: ok. ok. so when the opportunity came for you to be appointed as chair, as i recall, there were several candidates that were considered by the president. had you ever met the president before? jay: i met him for the first time when i had my interview for chair. david: how long did you spend with him? jay: less than an hour. i can't remember exactly how long it was. david: ok. so after it was over for you, you said, i did that pretty well and i will get this job, or you didn't know? jay: i didn't know. i felt like the interview had gone well. david: you are a guitar player, right? jay: i am an amateur musician. yes. david: you sing as well? jay: i sing badly. i try to accompany people who sing well. david: you used to be a golfer, you are not a golfer now? jay: i have been a road cyclist for many years. thes that safe when you are -- david: is that safe when you are the chairman of the federal reserve board? i am afraid to go across the street someti

>> bernanke ensaid the same thing.we'll adjust it according. >> but powell said in the news conference that we are on autopilot? >> he's talking about the balance sheet. >> he said that on friday. >> well, we'll see but he also indicate that had he saw nothing right now to change the course so, sara i think what this all indicates to me is the enormous dependence markets have on what we did by taking rates to zero, by expanding the balance sheet up to -- it's now at 4.1 trillion, expanded it to 4.5 trillion, and this is what we all feared at the table when we were going through the program are we painting ourselves into the corner will the markets become hooked on this stuff, and how do we get out of it? and mr. powell has the unfortunate duty to unwind and get back to normal as much as possible and very importantly prepare for the future when the economy finally turns, and that's the tension what do you do now for the short term, and what do you do for the long term in terms of having had a little prophylactic medicin

david: so she became chair when you are there, and also ben bernanke. so who was the better chair?er] jay: it is a tie. [laughter] david: ok. ok. so when the opportunity came for you to be appointed as chair, as i recall, there were several candidates that were considered by the president. had you ever met the president before? jay: i met him for the first time when i had my interview for chair. david: how long did you spend with him? jay: less than an hour. i can't remember exactly how long it was. david: ok. so after it was over for you, you said, i did that pretty well and i will get this job, or you didn't know? jay: i didn't know. i felt like the interview had gone well. david: you are a guitar player, right? jay: i am an amateur musician. yes. david: you sing as well? jay: i sing badly. i try to accompany people who sing well. david: you used to be a golfer, you are not a golfer now? jay: i have been a road cyclist for many years. >> is that safe when you are the -- david: is that safe when you are the chairman of the federal reserve board? i am afraid to go across the street

but danny just because some guy up until until bernanke is because i'm going to get but the button to get me to everybody and i want to be in. the police station the scene near portland we keep putting up with joe loads of the new news gets out someone you've got here because he has a in good counseling good i'm going to go short out but i'm the only media that i'm going to say when. i was meant to retire or i was opening up a new office and. i'm going to mr the don't have to. focus on the. without the so much check i may not be. always be there but it won't really get you can't get it back to me and want to do that again. oh. well this is a maximum i'm going to get. the butts in the end get it exactly to give it to the modern is a. good outcome of even among those who are glued to the american side of the government of the school next hour with a diverse. about their government regular member junk out. of our mothers here this little be as it goes is a little made anybody here don't want to end their voice on scar not the market again that actually mean it's limited and not just a lo

she became chair and ben bernanke. who was the better chair? >> it was a tie. >> when the opportunity came for you to be a plaintiff i recall there were several candidates considered by the president. had you ever met the presidents before? >> i met him for the first time when i had my interview. it was less thanpe an hour i cat or how long it was. >> after it was over you said i did pretty well o that pretty wu didn't go? >> i would have heard it from my other contacts. iit was a process that went on and on and i had no expectation ate that point. >> if you could revise the federal reserve act, what would you change it was drafted 105 years ago what would you change >> the act was deeply amended in 1935 and what you see in the federal committee involving 12 reserve bank presidents and all the governors that is the product of the 1935 fact and i coulwould say that it's been remarkably durable. we are not looking for any leanges as i mentioned earlier we've guaranteed institutionalized policies having grown up in a lawyer's family i'm inclined t

more on the risk radar, on the alongsideerome powell janet yellen and ben bernanke, and the jobs report. yvonne: global growth concerns weighing on markets. we are seeing any easing off in hong kong. a welcome back to japan not so welcome. 3%, 630 down, the yen surge, the flash crash driving this. we see that strength into the currency this morning. surge for aiggest decade for the currency. dollar strength fading given the ismmanufacturing data -- manufacturing data showing a slowdown. tech-heavyng benchmarks like taiwan still down 1.2%. we are watching apple suppliers in tokyo. hong kong slightly more positive come up a third of the percent -- a percent. hong kong still one of the most vulnerable markets for 2019, but a decent bid for asian fx given dollar weakness. sayention gold, futures 1300. take a look at copper, a different story when you look at global growth concerns. shanghai futures down 1.2% at the moment. yields lower, the japanese 30-year, seeing a rush into safe havens like treasuries, feeling bond markets -- fueling bond markets in japan. your 10 year still around that

chairman jerome powell has to say when he sits down with former fed chairs janet yellen and ben bernankejoining us is richard hunter, head of markets at interactive investor. ona on a serious note, a lot of talk about these markets shining a light on china a demand from china, the issues we have had with the slight slowing down in economic growth there. apple has shed a light on that. it has. we often overlook when we're talking about china, even in terms of the downgrades, they are expecting 6% growth in terms of gdp which most countries would be rather the end of, but what is becoming evident, as was widely anticipated at the start, that the us — china trade spat is starting to have an impact on both economies. needless to say, both stock markets, after all be her hours we had last year in terms of trump and the booming american economy, the s&p 500 finished down nearly 6% for the year. all three of their major indices were in negative territory. although we have had some potentially good news overnight on the talks reopening, the fragility of market sentiment, they are going tojump on

in beijing and the third thing was jay powell was speaking with ben bernanke d n a with janet yellen today in atlanta i want to get your take on the other side of this chris take a listen there is no pre-set path for policy. and particularly with the muted inflation readings that we've seen coming and we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves. but we're always prepared to shift the stance of policy and to shift it significantly if necessary in order to promote our statutory goals of maximum planning and stable prices understand seems pretty safe to me oh well what do you make of it chris. well i was actually a little surprised by this this is such a stark reversal from many of the things that he said in december wasn't that long ago and the most important thing wasn't quite caught in that clip to me was that he talked about how that they would adjust balance sheet normalization if needed and that's a really big deal because before in december he was saying hey it's on autopilot we like to let these things run we have a fifty billion dollars a month balance sheet w

interest rates have been going down as we have had to make accommodations for the greenspan put the bernanke he put the janet yellen put and the moral hazard going into this monstrosity that we are talking about right hare and a couple of couple of questions the bond market is that now out had a first secular turn and we sang the highs for that and on a secular basis number one number two what do you want your thoughts on the u.s. dollar where is that going and alves and number three the a c. a power all continuing with more rate hikes carl. well the bond market has only two places to go one news back to some kind of reasonable return. on invested capital in you right now the ten year treasury rate is running approximately. sir do a half. twenty one day you're looking at. of the actual monetary inflation figure from the federal government's budget deficit that's an untenable situation so anyone who says that we are currently tight and that we're currently restrictive in monetary policy they're full of it the federal government ran a six point two percent fiscal deficit last year as a percent

format, on stage with ben bernanke and janet yellen. he wants to be careful not to scare people. farther than he has. the fed has said they are data dependent, they are not on a preset course. he may say the markets are sending us a signal. we get it. we are willing to stand back, pause and see what happens. believe the fed is sidelined, where do we go from here? one of the things traders are worried about, this idea the u.s. economy is now rolling over. balance the fed chair the idea of listening to us going on versus spooking the horses saying we are looking at a slowdown? from themay get help department of labor tomorrow. the bureau of labor statistics -- thatthe jobs report will be good news to help make the case. adp tends to come in hot in december. we only got 155,000 jobs created in november. anything north of that would be good news. 200,000, powell can say we still see strength in the economy, that will lead to consumer spending, that is good news. maybe we see a trade deal down the road. we don't see a reason for panic at this point, but we do note the markets are movi