tom barrack and former federal chairman ben bernanke. living through the crisis of 2008 and studying the great depression all of that coming up over the next three hours >>> to the news that broke overnight. the white house and the senate announcing a deal. we'll get to leasteve liesman f more on that and eamon with more. >> it was in the 1:00 a.m. hour that it broke overnight. what we have here, joe, is a handshake deal we don't have a vote and we don't have the explicit text what we have is a deal here is how mitch mcconnell announced the deal at 1:00 a.m >> help is on the way. the american people are already rising to this great challenge the senate is about to follow suit we'll pass this legislation later today. >> so here is what we expect is going to be in there again, we don't have the final text yet but what we are told, it is a massive $2 trillion deal the center is direct payments to americans across the country that will be $1,200 for people making up to $75,000 it gets phased out around $125,000 in income $2,400 for couples m

and ben bernanke and janet yellen who said she doesn't expect another financial crisis in her lifetime and these are the the happy talk propagandist for the bond dealers like goldman sachs and citibank and the others who put this false sense of security as if interest rates could go forever negative at best to say that we would go backwards in time. forever because but the bottom line is that now time has value as it should the yield curve will get normal but not after will see which countries can survive the bond crash foreign countries particularly in asia who've been the victim of america's bomb bubble are resilient and they're already coming out of the cold the crisis because they've built up resiliency the u.s. has no resiliency goldman sachs is expecting the economy in the united states to decline by 24 percent in the 2nd quarter whether or not you know we'll see civil disorder because of that i know in our in terms of our just in time neal liberal sort of a con a me there are i noticed supply chain issues in our local area where supermarkets still 56 days later have no supply so

the history of the fed starting with alan greenspan and the so-called greenspan put and then the bernanke he put and then the janet yellen put and now the jay powell put it seems like the fed has not really been doing on it supposed to be doing and that is taking away the punchbowl when things get too frothy it seems like they've actually been exacerbating this problem for several decades and now here we are in 2020 what the worst crisis and oh you know depending on how you look at it 506100 years and they they have no real ammunition left dan dan what do you think i think unlimited is plenty of ammunition and i think if. you know if they were overly easy we would have seen that as they said in the dollar the dollar has been super strong against all currencies and that tells you. that policy in fact in fact has be. tighter than it should have been and i think. in terms of taking away the punchbowl they tried to do that in 2018 it led in december to a complete wipe out again. largely because the underlying pressures in the world economy are still deflationary and there are a lot of reasons

ben bernanke weighed in this morning with why he thinks bonds may play a bigger role listen >> at the demand for treasuryies. of course, they're paying very low interest rates there's been some dislocation in the market for treasuries, probably due to dlenchi indelevd other factors. the fed is buying markets in order to stabilize that treasury market but i think the treasury market will remain the most important financial market in the world. i think there's a big global demand for treasuries, even if there's some temporary glitches. >> today we've got negative yields this as the dow is up 6%, more than 1,200 points right now, but one month and three-month treasury bills have a negative sign in front of them. for more on this i'm joined by jim carron with morgan stanley any thoughts >> i think it's a supply and demand imbalance right now the front end of the market has been extremely stressed, so there has been a demand for short-term collateral. and we have to think about the markets in terms of leverage and also funding and fungibility of assets there's probably nothing more liquid

ben bernanke gave a speech months ago in which he tried to make the case that if we had a recession, monetary policy could use the tools he used some years ago in terms of buying bonds, giving guidance and giving the feds forward intentions. those ideas were designed to bring long-term interest rates down. it is already basically on the floor. vonnie: absolutely. lovely to have you on. we will continue this conversation later on. thank you to you, larry summers and michael mckee. we are still through the 1% on the 10 year. .990.now, we are at dow, s&p, nasdaq, they are all down. the vix is at 37. ♪ chevron is holding its investor meeting today as it is recommended oil ministers consider a bigger production cap. they are recommending $80 billion in dividends of stock buybacks. alix steel is standing by with the chevron ceo. alex's thank you for joining us. a big day for the company. we have oil trading around 50. what do you see on the ground? >> it is a rapidly moving environment. the main thing is the health and safety of our workforce. supply chain and operations are operating norm

bernanke compared it to a snowstorm. >> i think what the markets are looking for.things, monetary policy which we already have. we have unlimited supply of none terri policy. fiscal side we should wrap up this week and third piece can we contain the virus. obviously we're not there yet, i think two out of the three, markets are essentially saying two out of three that is enough to provide some support to this market so we'll see but as investors we have to understand we may see more volatility in the coming beeks but i do think -- weeks, but i do think, hey, we're in much better situation than we were a week ago. i'm encouraged by that. i also think this is a great time to sit down to reassess your risk. with a name like boeing up 70%. chevron up 30%. these are massive moves this week. >> there are still quality companies out there. charles and i talked a lot about that last week. there are a lot of great companies out there and it is not their fault. ceos are giving trying to help americans, helping small business, keeping employees on the payroll, many are workin

we could talk to hank paulson and ben bernanke and know anything we asked them to do to make our job easier, they could follow through. that's missing now. donald trump just has destroyed that. nancy pelosi is a very good negotiator and very constructive, and i think mnuchin is well intentioned, too, but nancy pelosi can't be sure that anything she works out with mnuchin will be supported by donald trump. >> all right, well then -- >> similarly -- >> yeah. >> let's talk about what the government should do because in order to address this public health crisis, we're basically being instructed to shut the country down economically. everybody go home. is the solution here for the government to potentially step in, create a national holiday for a month or two months, close the markets, i mean, business is going to stop and we could see the travel, the leisure business, the retail business simply go into bankruptcy. >> well, first of all, i don't think we have to go that far. there are people, younger people who are in perfect health who are not going to be in situations where they are in

i didn't even say it was helicopter ben bernanke. it's more like what we are seeing at the moment, as jay powell just fluttering money into the system which it needs, i'm not saying he shouldn't do it, but the co-dependency continues. >> well, this time around, we didn't all rush in to buy the dip in a sustainable way. yes, we did initially but we lost those gains. i think that's important. the fed announced $1.5 trillion, liz, $1.5 trillion, yet the market bounce did not hold. liz: okay. final finally, what are you looking for? i keep asking our guests, what sign will they look for as an indicator that things have stabilized? i think it's also important to note that i believe it took 91 days for the markets to bottom back in 2008 when the first t.a.r.p., the troubled asset relief plan that congress neglected to pass, the market gyrated all over the place, it took 91 days later for the market to actually bottom. we may have a long road ahead or not as long this time around? >> so the real answer depends on the medical aspect. this ro

can call it that, with worries about the longer term economic impact of this virus outbreak ben bernankeeighing in on the current crisis earlier on "squawk box" >> it's much closer to a major snowstorm or a natural disaster than it is to a classic 1930s-style depression so it's quite different. and, you know, the different tools are necessary, and particularly, i would just like to emphasize that nothing is going to work, the fed is not going to help. the fiscal policy is not going to help if we don't solve the problem of the virus >> let's get some reaction from richard bernstein, ceo, cio, and all kinds of other os of richard bernsteins advisers. he's also a cnbc contributor richard, welcome as always, it's great to hear from you what do you think of what mr. bernanke just said there it's all moot if we don't get the virus response right >> i think, tyler, notice win started with, oh i think it's -- i think he's absolutely right i think the science and the health has to come ferris and then the economy comes second. and i think if we don't get the science and the health right, you can

interesting that they're making the 929 comparison because it reminds me back in 2008 speech made by ben bernanke who was then running the federal reserve he was a successor to alan greenspan and he was doing this great lecture about how they cure the crisis of 2008 because they have something that they didn't have back in 1929 they have the printing press and this began a continuation of what alan greenspan did in the 1987 crash was to print their way out of all problems and the idea was that oh we can stop printing at any time and this is all been proven to be false you can't taper a ponzi scheme furthermore they claim to be fighting deflation by all this printing and yet what they created was deflation and deflation in the sense that what we're seeing now markets are collapsing and the dollar is rallying that's a hallmark of deflation why was it why is it what why did this happen because of money printing because the money printing gave a lot of cash to the worst actors. the economy the banks pushed out all productive economy and we end up now with an official post-mortem to what started in 20

that's something that ben bernanke did not address >> no, he did discuss what is a much stronger financial system, of course. not saying it is not going to be leaned on heavily. to your point, was fairly positive at least in terms of all the things that occurred over the last 11 years, particularly those years that followed the financial crisis to bolster many of the big banks and their balance sheets >> david, watch zoom >> watch zoom? what about the airlines? shouldn't i watch those, too you have united up, delta -- all the airlines are up. >> we did get an upgrade of southwest, which is incredibly well run i was debating the other day with my daughter on whether to come home from spain, try to make a run for it somehow, escape from new york -- escape from spain to escape from new york i'm not sure southwest air down 22% to 41 used to be at 29 you had to be the brave soul that bought it at 29, not the person who takes it out at 21. i'm not a buyer of the airlines. you always need demand and customers. i don't see the customers coming back yet >> yeah. >> we have never seen the moves we'v

people get richer and richer and the poor middle class can't catch up and so in a weird way ben bernanke in janet yellen actually created bernie sanders and donald trump ok i'll get to that because everyone's talking about super tuesday but you knew the president do you think he was genuinely being. trying to calm things down when he said the coronavirus or at least the talk the way that the coronavirus was being talked about was in a manner of a hoax like say the russia hoax do you think he was he meant that to try and calm things down or he was genuinely ignorant about what coronavirus was well i think you know in the present as well as i do he's very market century and i think he thought by downplaying the potential sabera that that would inspire and still confidence in the market but as i was trying to explain the other at c.n.n. that does the exact opposite you're way better getting to the podium like that and at least laying out the facts cogently and then suggesting that you have a team of experts that are going to advance your agenda that you're not going to be that person you're

interesting that they're making the 929 comparison because it reminds me back in 2008 speech made by ben bernanke who was then running the federal reserve he was a successor to alan greenspan and he was doing this great lecture about how they cure the crisis of 2008 because they have something that they didn't have back in 1929 they have the printing press and this began a continuation of what alan greenspan did in the 1987 crash was to print their way out of all problems and the idea was that oh we can stop printing at any time and this is all been proven to be false you can't taper a ponzi scheme furthermore they claim to be fighting deflation by all this printing and yet what they created was deflation and deflation in the sense that what we're seeing now markets are collapsing and the dollar is rallying that's a hallmark of deflation why was it why is it what why did this happen because of money printing because the money printing gave a lot of cash to the worst actors. in the economy the zombie banks pushed out all productive economy and we end up now with an official post-mortem to what sta

that there is one thing that the last 3 generations of fed chairs have done we're talking greenspan bernanke and yellen it is that they have allowed themselves to be bullied pushed into a corner and do they have a fiscal lifting when it really is not their place to do so this is the time for jay powell to say the federal reserve is happy to coordinate with any entity in washington to help facilitate and you've got any type of policies that are going to provide relief but our direct toolbox is not efficacious it does not work in a domain what is going to be harming the u.s. economy very quickly will have about 30 seconds left but to that point how dangerous is this dependency on the food as you mentioned a lot of things that christine mentioned or outside the purview of the fed but the fit is been operating somewhat outside of its purview for some time now it seems like at some point we either have to cut some dependency on them or we have to allow them to take on more of a role i mean i would never want to see them take on more of a role but it seems like we have to go one way or the other l

the crash of $87.00 the introduced what became known as the greenspan put that was replaced by the bernanke you put replaced by the janet yellen put and now we have a jerome powell play it this is the idea that no craft is too great that the central bank can't bail everybody out by cheapening money however jerome powell the current fed chairman cut rates by a full point 100 basis points a shockingly big. cut in rates and the response this time was a resound fudge markets crashing down that is this may van this i began at the central bank can make all problems go away are we assessed finished now the era of the central bank put greg reminds me of 20089 you recall how coming out of the financial crisis all of the cash that the central banks and credit all the extraordinary measures they took didn't seem to have an immediate impact during the crisis middle man once there was those purse proverbial green shoots that were shoot up in 2009 and i mean there was no looking back after that especially even in the precious metals same thing may happen here we get this virus under control you know what

in michigan as ford is reduced to junk at one of the top local credit rating agencies first ben bernanke sharing his outlook and praising the fed for what it has done so far. we are back after this >> caller: it will be a very short recession, i hope short, recession in the next quarter or two because everything is shutting down. the gdp figures are calculated on an annual basis if activity is 10% lower that quarter than next, you multiply that by four you see a 40% decline. it is not doing much to incentivize people to go out and buy. the fed is using lending powers. in a world where credit markets are not functioning well, that could be a big help. i can say this now because i'm six years from being away. i think the fed has been extremely proactive and jay powell and his team have been working really hard and gotten ahead of this. i know that every single time that i suit up, there is a chance that that's the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. i might be crazy but i'm not stupid. having an annuity tells me that i'm protected. during turbulent times, consider prot

as the federal reserve a different federal reserve than in ben bernanke or janet yellen's time?perception problem? is the president impacting market perception of the fed, even if not the fed himself? what would you ask tim bullard to say? -- ask jim bullard to say? ed: that's a lot of questions. trump is really nothing i've ever seen before. previous presidents have job owned the fed, but nothing like the -- have jawboned fed, but nothing like this. i understand their thought process pretty well, and part have krishna who covers the fed for us. a fed funds rate below 1.25% looks perfectly normal. on bullard, i would ask and that. how does he feel about having the bond yield so much below the fed funds rate? in our case, we think they will cut the funds rate, and hopefully at that point, you have a positive yield curve. equity marketu.s. look better positioned right now then other equity markets around the world? if we see stabilization in china before stabilization elsewhere, does that market become better valued? how do you see the u.s. versus the rest of the world? ed: i don'

you can see the long-term trend line, the yellow color catching the trough of 1994 when ben bernankesing with interest rates too much and the asian crisis was about to occur. and then the .com bubble began to percolate. in 2007, where the financial crisis began to percolate. and now 2018, the start of the u.s.-china trade war which has been amplified by covid-19. bonds are the winner here. this chart is starting to look almost as bad as the vix. it is a question of how deep does this price -- crisis go. i compare it to something like brexit. what is going on now is worse. abigail: so now talk to us about the yen. paul: safe haven assets have been bought and sold as markets try to raise capital and fund other investments and raise cash. this is a measure of overall yen strength. it formed a nice cup and handle pattern. last weekut over the or two and it is turning to get going. we compared now versus the brexit eye in 2016. being more of a severe risk for macro at a time. the murat -- the index should go higher. be long yen. abigail: thank you. we look forward to joining you again. sc

bernanke cut rates so fast and so sharply within a month, it did nothing. people were running for the hills. they wasted their ammo i'm fearful we're on that path right now. >> it's interesting to hear and we spoke with vince about this last hour. he said what would they accomplish by buying more long bonds or buying more mortgages the rates still low. there would be no point in them buying the long bond you start thinking through what the financial, i don't know if impression is the right word, the hurt to the pricing power can look like. >> maybe powell isn't the right person because he was at that ngo, nongovernment organization looki in , looking at fiscal policies and things like that he's not in favor of modern monetary theory where there could be a partnership between the treasury and the fed in other words, there could be additional government spending but the yields aren't going to go up. >> if you look at wall street, they are clamoring for treasuries that's the only way they that could happen is by increasing the deficit. they're already in distr

of this kind that -- what that gives sure shrift to is the idea as emphasized by jay powell, ben bernankehe -- tony fauci as well, it is the virus that will determine when economic activity can resume. one thing i think people can take comfort from and christine was playing that sound from jay powell earlier is we do seem to see very coordinated central bank interventions around the country. today, president trump is going to be on a conference call with other g-20 leaders, he was asked about that last night, the question of what kind of coordinated response and he said, well, i don't know about coordination, we're going to have a phone call and a lot of these people i like. that was not in -- of itself very encouraging sign about the coordinated virus response. however, the united states has taken the fiscal step that is most needed right now. >> john harwood, christine romans, julia chatterley, again, i don't think anyone a year ago could have ever imagined seeing that number that is on the screen right now. 3.28 million filing jobless claims in a single week. thank you for helping us u

they are doing that, and that is an encouraging sign, and ben bernanke, the former fed chair was out in a television interview this morning who said if we limit the downside for workers and businesses, we might have a robust recovery from this before too long. so that's good news. >> yeah. to your point, folks watching at home, the extension of unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to 39 weeks and for the early period at 100% pay for a period of time, to replace as much of that lost income as possible. this is important for average americans. lots of folks watching at home. john harwood, dana bash, thanks very much to both of you. >> still to come this hour, how are ceos in the u.s. reacting to the $2 trillion stimulus. i will ask another ceo what he thinks of the deal. that's coming up. >>> plus, rural hospitals in america, they are already struggling to stay afloat, and they're now braceing for the impact of coronavirus. how they plan to survive, to handle this, just ahead. butchu- cut. liberty biberty- cut. we'll dub it. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay f

is ben bernanke right when he said this is like a snowstorm of long-term consequences when we come backay. completing your 2020 census could mean smoother roads. or more emergency rooms. or more representation in our government. the census counts us all. and an accurate count helps inform where billions go every year. so, don't miss your chance to be counted. we're kind of depending on you here. complete the census, online, by phone, or by mail. shape your future. start here at 2020census.gov. >>> we are back with david katz, donald mcneil and rana foroohar. rana, let me bring you into the conversation. we know what has happened to the economy. it's paralyzed, freezed up in a way that i don't think there's a historical parallel. we have the stimulus package, larger than ever, 10% of gdp. what is the likely economic future for the next few months? >> it's going to be bleak. there's no question. you know, that would be true whether we were all in quarantine for two weeks or two months. you know, we have just seen record unemployment numbers. we've seen market falls, the parallel -- someth

by q4, according to ben bernanke and jay powell, the recovery could be robust.rtless when you think about many businesses will fail as a result of all this, tens of thousands. but for most people in work when the companies restart, they will be taken back in again, the economy will get up and running again. i think by the beginning of next year, you'll be looking at good growth. >> as you said, it all depends on the medical front. we just heard from dr. fauci this could become a seasonal thing. we don't know the impact of that. >> completely. >> we have a lot of questions have fruers. se cheryl wants to know is there relief for independent contractors. because of the shutdown, i cannot receive any work. >> i spent a good half hour going through the stimulus package to find chapter and verse for you cheryl. yes, in general, during the period individuals who operate under a sole partnership or independent contractor shall be eligible for a covered loan. it's not a grant. it's going to be a loan. from what i've been hearing from people trying to get in touch with a

he has been making reassuring noises i hope he takes a page from ben bernanke, he wouldn't allow bank failures, that's not the issue this time but you know what i'm talking about. and will have to lay out what he'll do to give lifelines for small businesses and push down mortgage change and change, for the best of borrowers. i want to learn he's working closely to guarantee letters of credit for vie lstall institutions that -- vital institutions that can't get them at the moment. jay, be creative this is a war. better to apologize after than to ask for permission now. it won't be granted or maybe you do like nike just do it we also have three important companies reporting on wednesday that can give us a read on the new normal general mills, we're in a stay at home economy. mills should be making a killing here the other two are retailers. william sonoma at 5 below, a terrific online business, how is that holding up. 5 below is a chain that depends on impulse purchases they didn't do such a great job in the last numbers but they are regional and national chain and i do like them the st

see things you've gotten some commentary here i've mentioned some of the notes that are out there bernanke was on cnbc this morning, talking about the possibility for a short-term downturn, that matches kind of what bullard was talking about it feels like the tone has improved, somewhat >> so, let me focus on the good news and let me be an optimist i have one sort of down piece of news, but the good piece of news is this. it's important fiscal and monetary stimulus came in for this crisis far faster than anything ai've ever seen before. bear stearns went under in march and tapp.a.r.p. didn't come unt october. the speed that stimulus has come is unprecedented there's no question that's going to help. that's good news and the bad news -- it's not that bad, but this feels to me much more like a bear market rally. i don't think we need to set new lows, but i think it's unreasonable to think that we go straight muup from here i think you retest the lows because data will be coming out that we don't know right now we don't know the length of time this economy will be in quarantine we don't know

if things really get bad we'll have to talk about helicopter money which is former fed chair ben bernankegest we might have to do. i think we all need to calm down a bit. everybody gets his t hysterical hyper. my assessment is that by working this will be comparable to other coro coro coronavirus like the flu, like sars and mers. if they don't go away we'll have to live with them. >> from a technical perspective, i could say we're at highs of the session and i say that relative to how big the drops were earlier in the morning with the s&p down 141 points but the fact you're starting to see gold come off down $5, some of these different indicators, how closely are you watching them. >> the economy up until the virus news hit the headlines was doing extremely well it has some good underlying strength if we can calm down about all of this and deal with it with standard hygiene and when you don't feel good, you call the doctor and do what you need to do, i think we'll get through this they are trying to stay optim t optimist optimistic >> it sounds like you think the italians are over reactin

back in 2008 fed chair ben bernanke along with george w. bush and treasury secretary hank paulson said on an almost daily basis the same thing, that the economy is fundamentally resilient and structurally sound. and then the financial crisis hit in which millions of people lost their jobs. those who still worked spent less. the economy suffered dramatically as a result. it took years to undo the damage. so when the chairman of the federal reserve says it's fundamentally okay, he's just wrong. a key part of the senate bill is direct payment to americans. i want to take a closer look at how this would work. how much you get depends on how much you earn. individuals who earned less than $75,000 are going to get $1200. that's a one-time payment. couples who filed a joint tax return and make less than $150,000 will get $2400. individuals who filed as head of household and earn $12,500 or less will get 12$1200 and $500 r every child in the household. for couples earning up to $198,000 the elemeamount is goi be reduced for every $1,000. if you mak

but at the same time, you know, back to the set for a second here, you know, former fed chief ben bernankelevision this week and he talked about the fact saying look this is like a snowstorm, it is a virus but like a snowstorm it is instant and fast. as fast as the markets fell, they could come back. am i being too optimistic? >> no, it is something to be optimistic about. staying on that imagery, does the sun come out sooner or later and does the temperature get above 30 p. -- above 32 where the ice melts? in chicago we get a snowstorm in january and ice sticks around till april. i think that's the worrying thing of some of the economic effects where we are. i agree with rob, the stimulus is out there. the fed learned their lesson and said we are boeing to do anything we can. -- we are going to do anything we can. what's the multiplier effect? back in 08 o, 09, for every dollar they put in the system we got $4 of gdp back. do we get that same multiplier effect here with some of the stimulus that's out there? to me it looks like a lot of this is going to fill holes in company revenue proje

this fed has a bigger put than either the yellen or the bernanke fed. i think the markets have pushed the fed to it. carl: i would push back against that a little bit because i think during the financial crisis, there were plenty of times that the fed did know something that wasn't broadly to the market place. so the fed may have some broader ,ense of what is involved here and to the psychology impact, the fed is leading the narrative as opposed to following the narrative. just the rumors of a potential g7 meeting yesterday because the markets to surge higher. it was a relatively empty statement, saying we are working together. the fed needed to deliver on that. vonnie: well, did they? michael: they needed to. carl: you broke the psychology, and psychology can have very powerful consequences. vonnie: could that not have been the mario draghi whatever it takes moment? now that we've got it, they are actually lower again. michael: well, money is going into bonds. vonnie: we are down seven basis points from when the announcement was made. michael: that's w

jerome powell our current fed chief came on the today show did something reminiscent ben bernanke did all that's necessary we have all the bullets you need we're going to unfreeze what wall street tells us is cold as ice. he didn't scold anyone even though i would have. he's not trying to punish anyone he's trying to save the economy. it's working you know how i know it worked? even though we had the most atrocious unemployment, 3.3 million souls not reporting to duty because there's no duty to report to banging stocks lower like i used to call before i called them jimmy chill. we got good news from the stimulus bill. i want to be clear the bond wasn't bailed out it looks like they have money to keep paying their workers. the same as the airlines it's less a bailout and more using the aviation industry as a gigantic jobs program. sure microsoft got a boost from the quarter. more on that later boosted the tech sector. it was the policy response that turned the tide. i expect the checks in the mail by mid april i wish it were sooner. what can you do? this package gives small businesses