we got back to december 2013, when ben bernanke first announced that taper.e wanted to look at an equal weight of treasuries and mortgages that appeared at that time to him to be the simpler way in which to start this area so very curious that we are getting comments this time around the $40 billion. nothing about the $80 billion in treasuries. lisa: we are lucky to have congressman sean casten, democrat from illinois, joining us on the drumbeat to infrastructure. there seems to be more of a consensus forming on some sort of bipartisan infrastructure bill. what is your sense of the shift that has allowed a greater consensus, and perhaps more optimism around something getting done? rep. casten: i hope you are right. we desperately need to upgrade our infrastructure. i don't think it is surprising, every member of congress would like to see infra structure projects for their district. i think the challenge we have at this moment is that we do not forget about the critical importance of climate infrastructure in this piece because as long as the red state, blue

eight years ago ben bernanke testified that the federal bank was considering. >> if we see continued improvement and have confident that that is going to be sustained in the tex few meetings we could take a step down in our pace of purchases. 10% through the month of may now it turns to fed chair powell's lindsey, let me start with you we'll get to chair powell and what may happen tomorrow my basic question is this. if inflation signs are as high as they are, if the ppi is where it is, why are bond yield on the ten-year going the opposite direction, down? wouldn't you expect the opposite >> i think right now the market is clearly buying into the fed's inflation dismissal rhetoric the fed has been veg clear they view this as temporary or transsorry, as pointed out it's a reflex of these base effects, as they fall out this year, simply by the way we calculate inflation. but going forward, as the economy recalibration, and producers desperate to meet this rise in demand as we need a new equilibrium. so going forward, we know the market is forward-looking, and they're pricing in the easi

joe: under bernanke, you had this phenomenon.o what degree, how does the consensus under jay powell compare? is powell doing a good job relative to predecessors of keeping a fair amount of consensus and singler opinion of this wide-ranging review? >> i get the impression he is. the most interesting question that is still unresolved is if you are going to have an average inflation targeting regime, over what time span are you going to have that target echo they have not said anything about that. there are two reasons. one is they want to see how the data pans out the second is there may not be clarity among the members. they may not all agree. they are trying to coalesce around a specific data point before they actually come out. we read a crucial moment where we have almost maximum certainty because we are getting into this full reopening. they want to save their dry powder in terms of being very specific about what that timeframe is. caroline: the 579 billion-dollar infrastructure deal took the market by surprise how quickly the

expand on what dom said a moment ago what is the market expectation when we go back to when bern ec bernanke was on the hill is powell expected to offer any kind of color like that? >> this is the first time investors are going to get to hear from powell since that meeting last week and he's pretty much going to be sticking to script, at least in his prepared testimony in which he said inflation is notable but does remain transitory perhaps he learned something from ben bernanke because he doesn't mentioned asset management at all in his prepared remarks he really tries to paint the picture of an economy that's strengthening, a labor market that's still healing he points to two risks, slowing rates of vaccination as well as new strains of the virus but his message is that the fed will support the recovery until it's complete. >> would you agree with the picture that chair powell is about to complete? what are the top concerns about the economy and what the fed has been doing >> thank you very much for having me. i think the big thing is whether or not the economy is going to sustain its curr

expect the taper announcement to be on a schedule the last time they went through this in 2013, bernanke let it slip out during a congressional hearing, not during a fed meeting, not during their jackson hole event this could come out anytime, you could see that hint, the market may have a temporary adverse reaction, but what tudor jones is right about is we should be thinking about taper, even before the fed talks about it. it's healthy we don't need this level of stimulus anymore >> tiffany, ptj is not the only person that has suggested the fed is doing too much, it's over-stimulating the economy whether it's drunken does that m -- drunkenmiller, and what do you make of what he said and how we should think about being positioned here forward if he is right? >> i definitely agree that -- i'm not expecting the fed to say much this week i definitely agree with him on that front i do think the fed is doing a lot, but they're in this very really unique situation where, again, it's an event-driven recession and we're in a k-shaped recovery. so the fed has been very, very clear that they're w

he said yes to ben bernanke john f. kennedy's vice president because he thought he had power. office in the west wing. oh, no. john f. kennedy had no interest in giving him power. he makes him the head of the national space council. it sounds really cool, but when he did that, he was not expecting to send people to the moon. lbj was not a happy guy. >> turned out okay for him. how about al gore, the least sexy one. >> al gore, when bill clinton chooses al gore, he makes it clear, another southern politician, young men, they're going to be partners. al gore got substantive assignments in 1993, in the first year of his first term. secondly, he's involved in a relationship with russia. they're running very important discussions partly leading to the denuclearization of parts of the former soviet union. big deal. >> dick cheney. >> dick cheney. dick cheney runs george w. bush's search for vice president and he ends up being on the ticket with george w. bush. dick cheney is there because he has the chops, foreign policy chops. when he comes into the white house after "w" wins, the

ben bernanke -- he says 5.5 on the top peak and then it will come back but of course, what is the risk of the ecb? there's a number of different voices which are really driving the narrative to the transitory camp. annmarie: i had of that crucial u.s. cpi data this afternoon, bond bulls taking the u.s. 10 year yield below 1.5%. for many, it is shocking we got below 1.5% before we got ahead of 2%. joining us now to discuss this all is the ubs wealth manager, so let's start as where the 10 year yield is trading. it is basically showing, to me, and signaling to investors around the world, that the market is on board with this being transitory but we are seeing data points pointing to the opposite, so why is the market moving on board with this fleeting inflation narrative? >> crazy or brilliant, i think the bond traders are certainly forward-looking. back in february, we had cpi that was less than 2% and we were all panicking about inflation. today, we are going to get it close to 5% yet as you have mentioned, the bond yields falling now below 1.5%. we think that inflation is going to pro

when the fed did taper in 2013, there was about a 6% decline in the market from the time that ben bernankeinted at tapering until they actually tapered. there was one brief 6% decline, and then the market rallied another 17%. but financials did very well in that environment. but leading up to tapering, financials also did well. so i see it as if the fed sits on the sidelines, i think financials will do well because they won't have the kind of margin pressures. but if they do taper, i think the yield curve will steepen. i see it as a win-win for financials. when we look at the cheapest stocks in the value bucket, it is mostly in the financial area. so i think that an energy will continue to be the big winners this year and force more and more. the other important thing to consider, there's a new constituent of buyers into these stocks. that is the momentum players. i want to give you a statistic. last week, the largest momentum etf rebounded from 2% financials to 32% financials. it went from 43% technology to 18% technology. so there are now this cohort called momentum investors that are go

other monetary policy and central bank moments and it has been used before, particularly by ben bernankeo lay out policy plans. my intent at the fact they, at the next meeting, might lay out some plans. with the inflation rate moving at rates unexpected, and they may talk about the meeting before we even get to jackson hole. matt: thanks for joining us. mike mckee, talking to us about what to expect. stay tuned for full coverage of the fomc rate decision. "the fed decides" is our special coverage. it kicks off in 20 minutes with tom keene. we are still waiting for the latest out of geneva. we saw that stage set for president biden to come out. here it is. a gorgeous shot over lake geneva. any minute now, he should come out and give his account of his bilateral meeting with president putin. we are all also waiting for president putin to leave. he is going to get on his presidential aircraft and fly out of geneva any minute. things are moving along here as they get set to move along in washington, d.c. that is president putin's state car. a fascinating vehicle. almost like a rose rose -- r

>> it was an important step in transparency that was put in place under the bernanke world and the dots are very important, you know, at times in the cycle. once a hiking cycle is underway, once there is much broader cons consensus, i think the dots are more important and more refusal. of course, yes they create some challenges i think especially in this environment they are somewhat problematic because not everyone on the committee has embraced the new tramwork the same way. i think, you know, as a market participant, what's important is to really just pay attention to what powell, brainard and claire de in particular are saying. they have embraced the framework. they do want this overheating in the economy they did want a broad based and inclusive recovery for them we are not there yet. we are going to monitor the data if there are broad signs of inflation, we will react to that we need a lot more time to get through this period of high uncertainty. >> paul, you have questions about the question of the definition of high employment. >> i think the fed chair did a good job of pulling b

how far behind the fed is, but if you were to compare the fed today to the janet yellen fed or the bernanke event, the fed would be way behind. the markets are trying to assess what that means in terms of inflation pricing, breakevens, and interest rates. lisa: we have been talking about how the fed is acting as a monolith, very different to the ecb, which is more fractured. this particular meeting highlighted increasing dissidents between members, increasing disagreement between the central bankers in united states. how does this color how you see the fed acting going forward? mike: it is a great point. it introduces a lot more uncertainty the -- a lot more uncertainty to the fed policy. if you look at dispersion of the fed funds out to 2023 is it incredible. the fomc does not know how this will evolve. it is little bit much for the markets to latch onto a particular path. that means volatility might pick up. investors should protect themselves against yields rising potentially a bunch. the fomc could shift gears quickly. tom: i will make some headlines. you are not managing for total retu

when bernanke introduced that it was hope to put meat on the bones you could see what the fmoc members that. i think janet yellen had challenges in dealing with this and so has jay i think he'll very gently say listen to me and not so much on the dots and i don't think a major change in policy because people said they'll raise its in 2023 and i think they have to raise by the end of 2022. >> should we think about them in this way then that these dots aren't necessarily tells us what the fed will do but maybe hinting what the fed is worried what it might get wrong? at least we have a sense of what some people feel like they have to do and maybe investors position themselves in a way if the fed is wrong here's how they will be wrong? >> great way to put it because of course the fed may well be wrong and may be raising rates in 12 months but there is the possibility that this inflation will not be transitory or at least it will potentially increase inflation expectations and potentially unanchor inflation expectations. people have not seen price increases for more than a decade and we kno

since bernanke, we built up the wealth effect that has driven economic growth. if we lose that, that is one big lynchpin that goes away. so he's really targeting something like that. that's why we're talking 2023 before raising any rates, which unfortunately for the average investor gets zero% on their money markeds. that's a shame also, my friend. >> it is. gary kaltbaum. the russian navy is holding drills near hawaii. why wasn't this mentioned today? we'll ask a former navy seal. greg abbott detailing plans this hour to build a border wall between his state and mexico. we'll have the latest. if you have risk factors like heart disease, diabetes and raised triglycerides,... ...vascepa can give you something to celebrate. ♪ vascepa, when added to your statin,... ...is clinically proven to provide 25% lower risk from heart attack and stroke. vascepa is clearly different. first and only fda approved. celebrate less risk. even for those with family history. ♪ don't take vascepa if you are... ...or become allergic to icosapent ethyl or any inactive ingredient in vas

spending all year basically so far talking about the risk of the taper tantrum, right in back when bernanke first talked about the taper happening within a few meetings we saw the ten-year almost double that was back in 2014. powell was not close to that yesterday, but it is obvious will he a hawkish take that the market has walked away from this meeting with why is that sending the ten-year lower and not higher in other words, what is it about the feds's hawkishness yesterday that's sending bond yields lower as opposed to the hawkishness that won send bond yields up. >> first of all the entire question is predicated that we should put significance to when we look at a screen and see a 1.57 yield or 1.48 yield i will continue to contend that looking at a ten-year under 1.50 or a ten-year at 1.67 -- all of those are distorted views. and the dynamics and logistics of who is buying, who is selling, and how the yield curve -- in other words, that five-year kneeled that mike santoli has been talking about has been very firm long dated is more appealing to some of the buyers, especially global bu

bernanke denied this saying that people said there would be inflation in 2008 but they were wrong. mr. chairman, the numbers are in, and it looks like there's inflation in the past couple of months of 4% or 5%. when congress spends trillions of dollars and the fed prints money, something's got to give. prosperity isn't created by government i don't believe. i believe it's created by workers, by businesses, by entrepreneurs and creating and inventing and creating and i grew a health care company up to over $2 billion in revenue in ten years and i have a little bit of understanding of how to create business and grow jobs and i generally believe the businesses are looking at the inflation as a tax. it's a hidden tax and they see it on their ability. every dollar the government spends has to come out of somebody's pocket whether it's through another tax or reduction in their purchasing power, it comes out, and if we don't get our fiscal house in order i worry that that inflation won't be transitory as i know you've said and probably here today and i apologize for being a little bit lat

bernanke denied this saying that people said there would be inflation in 2008, but they were wrong. mr. chairman, the numbers are in. it looks like there is some inflation at least the past couple of months. 4% and now 5 horizon. when congress spends trillions of dollars and then prints money something has got to give. prosperity isn't created by government i don't believe. it is created by workers, businesses, entrepreneur, creating, inventing, innovating. i founded a health care company and grew it in eight years. i have experience on understanding how to create jobs, grow business, et cetera. i genuinely believe those businesses out there are looking at this inflation as a tax. it is a hidden tax but it is a tax on b 2 b transactions with the customer. every dollar the government spends has to come out of somebody's pocket, through another tax or reduction in their purchasing power, it comes out. if we don't get our fiscal house in order i worry that that inflation won't be transitory as i know you have said both in the practices and probably here today. apologize for being a lit

making things happen he's prepping us so much better than janet yellen prepped us so much better than bernanke prepped us all of these people are eye cons not here the only icon is icahn, a reference to your book. >> thank you. >> i think last week, that jay has learned from the last three fed chiefs, what did he go on, when he announced three rate hikes, he was going like on a game show show, or something, i think he was on "ellen," wherever he announced there were three rate hikes, he learned his lesson and getting it all done and we're not shocked at anything he does i love that guy. i love him and by the way, i am, i don't mind being the most hated man notice world i'm jimmy chill. it doesn't bother me one bit. >> for two minutes, we will take a break. futures we said, off to a bit of a rough start ahead of the final trading session of the week. the dow opened lower by 272. we are reacting to what jim bullard said >> it's supposed to. it's the right way to do it. >> well there's the other point of view too from tony, look relax, everything is good, i read this differently than the people.

you look back over the history of the federal reserve's actions, and their you know, things like bernankee brink of chance following on, you know thank you housing bubble bust greenspan to encourage everyone take out joushl rate he mortgages four months before he started ratcheting up short rates was stunned to discover housing prize began to collapse nationally i could go on history speaks for itself there. >> you've got what powell was saying then you've got what bond market is sayings 10-year treasury keeps going down, even as we all expect that we are going to see a rate hike in 2022, stephanie i want your take on what mike milken told us yesterday we spoke with chairman of the milken institute about the economy, and he says technology is going to keep a expect a on inflation, over the long term, a short term might be different but mike milken from yesterday on this program. >> if we had a phone call, not a video call but a phone call, being decades ago might have cost 10 dollars a minute to talk to someone in england, that cost in technology, is driving inflation down, on the other s

starting to inflect in how you describe that, listen, i think they criticized chair bernanke in termsanyway, how he communicates. by the way, that's important how does he separate taper from rate move. he will remove liquidity doesn't mean we'll raise rates and have an intermission period. the communication is important boy, i don't think anybody in their career at the fed will have a more momentous heroic period than we saw this time last year. >> in terms of any action you might take today, tomorrow, based on any of this, i mean, it sounds like you think that you're already kind of locked and loaded for this. not very likely going to be surprised. what would surprise you? >> so, i mean, first thing is we're not seeing substantial progress. >>> you get a fuller rush back to jobs, the job market with kids going back to school, maybe there's a little bit lower stakes around some of the macro inputs i don't know how you would sort of think about those things. >> so, i mean, the china data is interesting. china is restraining credit. you're starting to see that bite of it. they are comin