we start with a massive bet against the hottest trade of the year. in heavy volume a trade made a huge bet in the options market that the run in utilities, the best performing sector of the year, will soon come to an a end. let's get in the money and find out exactly y.dan, let's begin with you. was this a bet on higher rates in the new year, and just how large was this trade? >> yes, scott, great question. real interesting actually pause in an otherwise quiet trading session, this was the largest block of etf options that traded all day. there were 37,000 of the march xlu 47 put spots, $3379 r.7 million in premium. the unusual activity, not always that you can point to the fact that this is an outright bearish bet. this could easily be a hedge against a portfolio of utility stocks, but you have to take note of this when you see this sort of volume because it was massive. would i just make this one point. you know, when you think about utilities, up almost 30% on the year as a sector that's more than doubling the performance of the s&p 500. when they

this is a bet on higher rates, yeah? >> that's right. there's also a technical circumstance that's come and gone in the sense that the s&p 500 utility sector has well-defined tops in effect for about 15 years and the breakout is now, if you will, taken place. so fading it here as dan's talking about makes a lot of sense. >> mike? what do you think? >> you know, this is one of the situations where we've seen a lot of spaces in the equity market, where we've really seen things continue to rally, even well past their historical valuations. that's true for a lot of the components in xlu. it's kind of hard to pick a top in it. but certainly to me, with things trading at slightly above average multiples, it makes a lot of sense to sit there and say, okay, we're going to hedge or maybe make a bearish bet speculating that the prospect of higher rates could drive utilities lower. >> dan, if that is the case, how do you trade it? >> here's the thing, it's not just higher rates. when you think about it, this latest leg in the sector, also, obviousl

we start with a massive bet, in heavy volume, a trader made a huge bet in the options market that the run in utilities, the best performing sector of the year will soon come to an end. let's find out why and dan, let's begin with you. with was this a bet in the new year and just how large was this trade? is it was really interesting because in an otherwise quiet trading session, this was the largest block of etf options. this could easily be a hedge against a portfolio of stocks. you have to take notice because it was massive and i would just make this one point. when you think about utilities. they're up just 30% on the year. you could definitely make the argument that this was a chase for yield. that's not the case number and especially as we head into 2015 when we start to see rates go higher. there's a circumstances that's come and dpoen gone in a sense that the utility sector has well defined for about 15 years and the breakout has now if you will, taken place. it makes a lot of sense. >> mike, what do you think? >> this is one of those situations where we've seen a lot of spaces

it's a real good bet relative to the s&p and we think it's a real good bet. >> what i'm looking at are the may 135 calls and you can buy those for about 5 and a quarter. >> let's kick it off with carter. >> what's interest as good there are three reasons to exit a bet. one is a price stop. it's gone against you too much. then there's a time stop. it's been stuck for months. neither are in effect here or it's a winner and you harvest it for gains. it's a few weeks old. not much have happened. stay. >> this is a situation where you could have taken some gains. they open the next trading day at 545 and traded up to almost $7. when boeing got down to the 120 level which i'm going to defer to the chart master but there's things you can do here. when they rally you want to sell calls against it to keep your bullish bet on and if it comes down to the 120 level you can think about some puts traded close to $5. now you're in that trade premium wise at least for free and you're able to buy that stock at a bit of a discount. that's another way to potentially play it. >> a couple of weeks ago dan

we think it's a real good bet relative to the s&p and think it's a real good bet absolute. >> what i'm looking at are the may 35 calls and you can buy that for a quarter. >> carter, do you like it? >> there's three ways. a price stock, gets you too much. a time stock, it's too much. and then harvest it for gains. this is just a few weeks old, not much happened. like it still, stay. >> this is a situation to take the next trending day at 545 and traded up to $7 in two days. i thought it was interesting to get down to the 120 level which i'll defer to the chart on whether there's support there but actually some things you could do in this. when they rally, sell some calls and keep your bullish bet on. if you come back down to the 120 level and get the ball pop like we did, trade it close to five bucks and now you're in the trade premiumwise at least and buy the stock at a discount. that's a way to play it on the long side. >> a couple of weeks ago, dan bet on a different dow component, general electric. >> g.e., simply, i think you look out to the new year changing, look out to the first

we start with a massive bet, in heavy volume, a trader made a huge bet in the options market that the run in utilities, the best performing sector of the year will soon come to an end. let's find out why and dan, let's begin with you. with was this a bet in the new year and just how large was this trade? is it was really interesting because in an otherwise quiet trading session, this was the largest block of etf options. this could easily be a hedge against a portfolio of stocks. you have to take notice because it was massive and i would just make this one point. when you think about utilities.

we think it's a real good bet relative to the s&p and think it's a real good bet absolute. >> what i'mng at are the may 135 calls and you can buy those for about 5.25. >> carter, do you like it? >> there's three reasons to exit a bet. one is a price stop, it's gone against you too much. a time stop, it's been stuck for months. neither are in effect here. or it's a win customer you harvest it for gains. this is just a few weeks old, not much happened. like it still, stay. >> this is a situation to take some gains, they open the next trading day at 545 and traded up to almost $7 in two days. actually, what i thought was interesting is when boeing got down around the 120 level, which i'm going to defer to the chart master on whether or not there's support there. but actually some things you could do in this. when they rally, sell some calls against it to spread out of it and keep your bullish bet on. and the other is if you come back down to the 120 level and get the ball pop like we just did, think about selling this cash cover puts. now you're in that trade, premium wise, for tree and a

it's a bullish bet. >> 70 as well, carter? >> the bottom of the range. this is not about support by my work, but a fallow asset likely to come to life. >> a fallow asset. good way to put it. interesting because today we had a note as well, montgomery said by 2025, starbucks exceeds mcdonald's market catch. that's a big move. >> i put it in a long for life. >> buy it, set it, and forget it? >> don't chase it here, but if you're smart enough to buy at 70 because you didn't care what was going to happen in the next few weeks and thinking in years, this is a way to do it. >> choices between a name like st starbucks and mcdonalds, go with starbucks. >> you're skeptical of the fundamental thesis. if you go with what carter said, do you like it? >> the call spread makes sense. to define a range over a period of time that you think it gets to, that makes a lot of sense. >> got a question? tweet us @optionsaction, for everything else, check out our website at optionsactio optionsaction .cnbc.com. we have cutting edge tutorials, state of the art videos breaking do

we'll see more. >> none of these bets are bet the entire company or bet the ranch bets but people were nervous about the fire phone how capital intensive it was and how drais idrastic it appears. -- similarly a transformative deal for that company. there does seem to be a lot of different balls in the air for bezos and amazon with very different results. >> it is a critical point and he drew that distinction. he said emphatically i'm not saying bet the company. we would never do that. what i'm saying is be bold in the product bets that you make. as soon as those remarks hit twitter the silicon valley started coming in there is this fetish of the failure in silicon valley. my start-up failed so i'm great. it is terrible that it failed. but you learn from it and go and build must products. and if you see the bottom line of the washington post that doesn't look so good. but the enthusiasm is great. that's attitude they have. it's just very unusual. >> i think the key question for an investor has to be are the types of risks amazon is taking right now of a different character? does he have

make this bet without taking a lot of risk. the vix below 12, this is a situation where you think about maybe i'm going to do relatively simple trades. you get a lot of leverage and not take significant risk. generally speaking, going into the end of the year, though, calendar spreads can set up in a fairly attractive way because you're not going to have a lot of activity with the holidays going on. maybe this isn't the place to play it because the option premiums aren't so high. i think that's another strategy that people can look to and look as you pointed out to extending that call purchase out. >> give us a context with which you view this trade. this is for january to capture the specific event. longer term, more cautious on the markets overall. longer term, do you believe this could be a winner next year? >> i looked at february, but to me, really i think this is a one and a half month trade. you get a pop toward 28. i don't like u.s. multinationals here. they buy back a lot of stock. they have a lot of dollar exposure. i

can i bet this?grabbed like two chunks or three chunks of bud of marijuana and puts it on the table. he said, can i bet this? he was thinking i said that's too much marijuana, he couldn't bet that much like that was a table max or something. >> the dealer tries again to alert the gambler of his illegal actions to put an end to the situation before it gets out of hand. >> he was so wasted that he didn't know what was right from wrong. i was trying to be real calm about it, quietly tell him to put it away, not to make a scene. and maybe he could just leave without getting in trouble, you know. >> but when none of his efforts to get through to the player seemed to be working, the dealer calls for backup. >> that gentleman in the black suit is the pit boss. when he shows up to a table, that usually means there's a problem. >> the pit boss quickly realizes that security needs to be called. >> when i arrived at the table, i was kind of shocked like everybody else. so i asked him what was he doing. and once

they could bet it all. bet on the credit default. if they lose we still bail them out. the american people really need to pay attention to this. >> you're right. and congresswoman, the thing that galls me. banks just had their best quarter since the crisis. posing their biggest quarterly revenue increase since 2009. yet that's not enough. more rule changes are needed? they're going to do this if democrats can't do this on this one. it will divide the party and people like me will be loud and long calling them out on this. >> exactly. as if it isn't enough, the kinds of profits they've been making. john boehner can solve this problem right now. he can take that provision out of the legislation. and democrats will vote to keep the government open, of course, we want to. but not to make the kinds of tradeoff that's say the whole economy will be at risk again by the hands of the greed of wall street. i'm certainly not going to be complicit in that. >> he can just take it out of the bill. explain it. he can take it out and they can vote for the bill? what has to ham? >> they

stossel: i can't bet on the nhl. unless i can find someone who will take the other side. >> gamble on the nfl is legal in the state of nevada. stossel: i have to fly to nevada? >> that keeps the people that can afford it able to gamble. >> it's nanny state gone wild. stossel: they want to police what you do for pleasure. how you eat, and why this like this little animal a lot more than they like you. . >> the nanny state is alive and well. stossel: it sure is, and the control freak always want more. they want to protect us from ourselves by limiting what we eat, what we do for pleasure, even how we give to charity. they think it's their duty, and i admit i was guilty of this kind of thinking, as a young consumer reporter, i did all this research on what doctors said was bad for us, and i wanted to help stamp it out. after all, lives were at stake. and people have lives, they don't have time to check everything out and find out what's harmful. it's important that the state protect us. the concept of individual freedom

bet it's a good heart. >> didn't object phi him.she was talking about his heart. >> that wasn't object if i case. >> this is o object if i case. oh your ass would look so good on my couch. you watch lvtv? >> nobody's ever really noticed my butt. i've been doing squats. i really appreciate it. >> women would be immediately insulted. the guys are like, yeah, this is awesome. thank you. >> thanks for the attention. >> you hear me? >> yeah because you're a good listener. >> all the things that women really value in a guy being yelled out of a window is so comic comical. >> you look so emotionally stable. >> those arms look like they can carry some babies. >> you look like a real mess. let me fix you. >> oh. >> i bet you would treat me with respect. >> wow, she's got a pretty funny sense of humor. that is an interesting way to get my attention. let's chat. it backfires, it just does. >> i know. we never get objectified. i'm going to go over there. >> i'm opening my mouth. >>> dog size to make a trade. ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> okay ladies. let me introd

i'm crust mike jubby roll bond chow gonna lean up an kiss bet. peas charty get town down.laughter] ♪ borf a liver tute face stummy wag ♪ pow pam sha-beeps stella nerf berms. saxa-nay nay? badumps a head. temexiss gurrin. juppa left. fluppa jown! brone a brood. what? catch up on what everyone's talking about with the x1 entertainment operating system. preloaded with the latest episodes of the top 100 shows. only from xfinity. john: apis shooting range in maryland, everyone is shooting special ammunition, including the last shooter that you saw who owns the company and she is here with us today, brian is with this group that runs the u.s. consumer coalition. so what is operation shall point? what is that? >> at the program that the department of justice is pursuing. they are trying to help you to stop doing business with people they don't like. people like this are being affected and losing the ability to provide services and products. >> company say seen on tv. they didn't want to reveal this. the firearms makers, payday loan sellers, surveillance equipment, lots of compani

we wouldn't be in any trouble right now. >> it's all the side bets. >> it's the side bets. >> you'vereet firms, bear stearns, lehman brothers. you got insurance companies like aig. merrill lost a ton of money on this. everybody's lost a ton of money. they're supposed to be the smartest investors in the world, and they did it themselves. >> they did it all on their own. that's the most incredible thing about this crisis, is that they pushed the button themselves. they blew themselves up. >> now, how much of this was just incompetence on the part of wall street, the people who ran it? >> the truth is that on wall street, a lot of people just weren't very good at their jobs. it's as simple as that. >> these people were being paid $50 million to $100 million a year, some of them, the guys that were running the places. >> there is no defending-- a trainee making $45,000 a year would have had the common sense not to bet the firm on mortgage contraptions that no one in the firm actually understood. that is not a deep point to comprehend. somehow, through, i will call it a criminal neglect a

. >> and i love to bet on sports. it's my money, isn't it my choice?now, is what the control freaks say. ♪ music ...the getaway vehicle! for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. >> governor chris christie signed up eldo partially legalizes sports betting in the garden state. john: it's about time, millions of us bet on sports. finally politicians will make it legal. that they only want to legalize betting and casino's and other state-controlled facilities and even that was too much for the control freaks that they threaten for lawsuits. >> if someone wants to stop it, they have to take action to top it. >> and they did. the prose is sued them. and the judge did stop at least for now. people that i interviewed agreed that government should prevent us from gambling. >> should betting on sports be allowed? >> never. >> it encourages people to spend money they don't have. john: it does sometimes. the nonfree americans allowed to do what we want with our own money? know says this man of the conservative think tank american policy roundt

says, let's bet on it, you feel it, oh, wait, what are we betting on. how are we wording that? i didn't mean that part, you back off and you clarify because you kind of know, now you are on the hook, innocenttives change your mind. john: prediction market are groups of people doing that as locations like predictive.com or bet fair, beting on future events they are more accurate than pundits. >> if you want the most estimate on a question, there is a betting market it go look at odds. >> follow me on twitter to join this discussion. or like my facebook page. i want to know what you think. >> coming up, most people believe a minimum wage helps the poor. most peep believe charity helps the poor more than investment. they are irrational, that is next. >> raise the wage. >> one of the fastest ways to help folks get ahead is by raisings minimum wage. john: that sounds reasonable to most americans, even people in conservative states like alaska, south dakota, nebraska voted to raise the minimum wage, americans support laws again price gouging and monopolies bu

>> hedge your bets. neil: bets for what?> if jeb bush calls you personally and say, can i get your help? neil: are you saying those calls are happening? >> calls are going to him. and, yes, he's making calls. neil: tracy, what do you think? >> we don't know who the whole stage will be for that debate. neil: sixteen podiums. >> how about george? >> ben carson. john kasich. i mean, there's a lot of people that could come out of anywhere. i would hold out. get off the doughnut stand -- >> george screamed at me for saying he has a snowball's chance in hell. ben carson smart guy. neil: did he scream at you. >> he was pissed that i said a small snowball's chance. >> you'll make enemy. neil: you can say a snowball can briefly had a small chance in hell. just would melt. >> ben carson smart guy, i don't see it. kasich, a possibility. neil: don't do anything. >> but are you going to tell jeb bush no? are you going to tell him no? >> i wouldn't. here's the thing. i would as a journalist. at a fundraiser, i wouldn't. jeb bush is doing

that's not a good bet. >> it is not a good bet.s suffered, his people suffered in terms of the economy. >> nationalism at $110 a barrel and $54 a barrel are two different things and i think we will see that. >> if we look at oil prices i wonder where you think the spillover effects are. it has been great news for consumer and will continue to be so. i don't know how that changes the geo political map. >> just got a tax cut. certain countries that have paid a long bet on oil will be under pressure. this year, we will see a lot of geo political moves. already saw one recentry with cuba and america basically upgrading their relations. that's about cuba being dependent on 100,000 barrels of oil a day from venezuela. >> do you look at the changes with optimism for 2015 or nagging fear in the back of your head of the unknown and what happens? >> i think it will be net optimistic. the price of oil and personal freedom operate in opposite directions. price of oil goes down, price of freedom goes up. i think we will see that. >> i know you

it is betting rates stay low through 2015. if you look at move for financial sector that is kind after bet rates will start moving earlier than 2016. kind of a fight going on where rates will go, which could make the next couple months quite interesting. liz: i would say financials, you could include brokers in there too, td ameritrade and charles schwab they benefit when we start to see tighter rates. lest we get too excited, pete, you're striking cautionary tone, are you not, saying don't get all in on equities? why not? >> look across the world, liz, central banks are really controlling fiscal policy, not just managing policy but buying into asset inflation when you look into the united states. 8 to $10 trillion injected into our economy. what are we seeing? 2% economic growth. in the short term numbers are very good. we'll continue to see short-term highs but long term investors need to be defensive in nature. david: eric, why do you think pete is wrong? >> we continue to like equity markets here. s&p for regard earnings m

. >> and i love to bet on sports. it's my money, isn't it my choice?now, is what the control freaks say. boy: once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain. the house tried to keep out all the water, but water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down. they just didn't think it could happen. they told the house they would take better care of her... always. announcer: protect what matters. get flood insurance. come from all walks of life. if you have high blood sugar, ask your doctor about farxiga. it's a different kind of medicine that works by removing some sugar from your body. along with diet and exercise, farxiga helps lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. with one pill a day, farxiga helps lower your a1c. and, although it's not a weight-loss or blood-pressure drug, farxiga may help you lose weight and may even lower blood pressure when used with certain diabetes medicines. do not take if allergic to farxiga or its ingredients. symptoms of a

. >> and i love to bet on sports. it's my money, isn't it my choice? is what the control freaks say. here's a question for you: when electricity is generated with natural gas instead of today's most used source, how much are co2 emissions reduced? up to 30%? 45%? 60%? the answer is... up to 60% less. and that's a big reason why the u.s. is a world leader in reducing co2 emissions. take the energy quiz -- round 2. energy lives here. motor trend's 2015olf car of the year. so was the 100% electric e-golf, and the 45 highway mpg tdi clean diesel. and last but not least, the high performance gti. looks like we're gonna need a bigger podium. the volkswagen golf family. motor trend's 2015 "cars" of the year. >> governor chris christie signed up eldo partially legalizes sports betting in the garden state. john: it's about time, millions of us bet on sports. finally politicians will make it legal. that they only want to legalize betting and casino's and other state-controlled facilities and even that was too much for the control freaks that they threaten for la

everyone has bet against amazon, has bet against amazon hundreds of dollars ago.y that should have been a short sell on amazon, and you're up a thousand percent. depending where you're looking at it from your point of reference. this is a name that they could easily pull back. not the name, not the stock. they could pull back their investment. they've done a lot of this investment on their structures, on their warehouse space. they could easily pull that back if they wanted to. but it sounds like he still wants to be considered a growth name. so he is not going to invest it in that. i want to be a value stock. so i hear what he is saying. but it does remind me of twitter telling us which metrics to look at because we're looking at the wrong metrics when we gauge twitter. you're okay buying amazon when you buy stock and that was the point. >> i think it's broken. >> it's broken? in what way? >> the whole year it's been broken. the whole story. and i agree with rick grasso in that you had to believe that amazon was going to do better. this week wall street stock bel

. >> bet on it. so you probably been in a conversation, an argument where you get really pompous and you make all the big claims and somebody says let's bet on it and you feel it right then, you go, oh. wait a minute. what exactly were we betting on, how were we going to word that again? i meant something like this. you back off and clarify because you know you're on the hook. incentives change your mind. john: and prediction markets are groups of people doing that at predictive.com or betfair betting on future events and they are more accurate than pund snit. >> absolutely. if you want to find out the betting market, look at the odds. john: thank you, robert, and to join the discussion follow me on twitter at fbn stossel, or "like" my facebook page so can you post on my wall. i want to know what you think? >>> coming up, most people believe a minimum wage helps the poor. most people believe charity helps the poor more than investment. they're irrational. that's next. há you never jim jam shabriver f

starbucks is betting on beer and wine to boost sales. the coffee chain will add more alcohol and drinks eechkd snacks to its menu boosting its lunch offering and rolling out mobile orders. starbucks plans to open express stores and coffee trucks and an upscale chain with premium coffee. back to you. >> have a great weekend. >>> what did new jersey governor chris christie know and when did he know? plus, baby, baby. meet mighty miya. details of her shocking arrival coming up next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ looking for one of these? yoplait. smooth, creamy, and craved by the whole family. >>> happy friday morning. i'm meteorologist vivg kaw davis, we are setting up for a wet weekend along the east. a whole lot going on through the central plains through the ohio valley. this is going to mean a soaker for your saturday and in much of the northeast that will begin by tonight. so your friday forecast is showing rain that will be moving up the i-95 corridor. today that rain comes in to play by late afternoon, and then it's pretty much wall to wall rain on satur

very quickly these two names are no longer energy bets. they're sovereign nation bets. >> yeah. >> if you think that russia will make it you want to buy gazprom. if you think that petrobras -- you think the brazilian government is going to survive every scandal known to man, okay, you buy petrobras because they're no longer energy companies. if petrobras goes under brazil goes under. gazprom goes under what happens to putten. >> neither will likely let the companies go under. that's -- >> citigroup analogy. >> and that's why i think, both those names become not just optionalty on it energy but become optionalty on sovereignty. >> that's the thing with, you know, sovereign operated companies all over the world. they never -- people say oh, look the how cheap the china market is eight times earnings. 60% of the index is quasi controlled by the government. you will never get a multiple on that compares to a developed market, free capitalism entitity. i don't know where they should trade but agree with mark these are trading on politics only,

>> it'll take a few years so it is a bet on the future.nically, it's a that against technological innovation. >> cory johnson, thank you so much. still i had, uber is now worth more than 10 luck, american airlines and delta. they have a $40 billion valuation and we will talk about that next. ♪ >> time for on the market. let's take a look at where stocks traded. the dow and the s&p 500 both closing at records. health-care stocks leading gains. >> you are watching "bloomberg west." all that bad press about uber executives targeting journalists is apparently not scaring off investors. the right hailing app has raised $1.2 billion in its latest round of funding and the new investment values uber at $40 billion, more than double the valuation it had in june. joining me from san diego is paul kedrosky. the list of companies that uber is valued more than is incredibly long including tesla and delta and american airlines. is it worth it? >> i guess we won't find out until it goes public. this is clearly a pre-ipo financing round. it is a bet on la

philly international safe bet, bet you a jelly doughnut we will see delays at the airport. getting an early flights out, tote board showing no delays but we will see that volume pop around 5:30 at philly international. septa says they are off to a good start but again, the high wind are prone to give us problems with those overhead wires. we will keep our fingers crossed but dress appropriately if you are standing on the train platform awaiting for the buses. tacony palmyra in the middle of an opening, other bridges are looking fine. we will have to contend with the wind. fox 29's jennifer joyce has been braving win and ponding. jen, how has the wind been driving through bucks county where you are right now. >> reporter: yeah, we are driving along route 413 in the area of buckingham township approaching doylestown area. we have not felt too much in the way of wind right now. we are seeing that conn is tenth rainfall. i will show you here as we drive, you can follow along with us, as we have been mentioning all morning long there is ponding on the roadways. we are seeing lar

i am not about to bet how he would go. >> was ted cruz your student? >> he was.lways bragged that he would get the one a-plus in my course. >> do you remember that? >> he got an eight, a very solid a. >> do you remember him at all. >> he would have an excellent counterpoint. i love that. he gotan a. barack obama got an a-plus. >> was it people say about ted cruz? >> i think they thought he of the just be a very influential politician, and that he is. >> [indiscernible] >> it was pretty clear he was very, very far to the right, very conservative. with someone like john roberts it was much less clear where his ideology was. he was obviously conservative, probably less so than people think he is now, but i think even now he is more moderate than some people give him credit for being. >> our thanks to professor laurence tribe. next, our joke right are called in sick. ♪ >> if there is one thing comedians hate it is being asked to be funny on here. our next guest does not have a problem. madam president, welcome. so much we can talk about. let's start with the chris ro

but are you betting the farm. regan in california. regan. >> hey, jim. thank you for taking my call. >> you're welcome. what's up? >> i'm trying to crack the toy company code. i'm thinking about mattel over hasbro. can i get your opinion please? >> you have to buy. hasbro is doing everything right. mattel just because it has a 5% yield. we've seen the yieldses not be able to contain down side of when a company is not doing well. that's the way i feel about the mattel yield. i want you in hasbro if you insist on a toy company. there's nothing more positive for the consumer than competition, but for the market, what can i say, it's a killer. when it comes to the biotechs, please don't be a hero. we can revisit when the smoke clears. it's no sin. on "mad" tonight i'm taking you on the toothfairy with a plan to profit off your pearlie whites. don't miss my take on the booming dental players that put serious money under your pillow. when one should be inside your portfolio. i'm going name the stocks that could serve much higher in the new year, or frankly unt

intel is a much safer bet.lcomm from a valuation perspective and growth perspective, much more interesting. intel, but would you rather, qualcomm? >> would you rather, qualcomm or intel? >> i'd rather intel. i'd much rather intel because of the dividend on the stock and where yields are going up. do you think in the shorter term three to six months it's going longer. >> let's get to go pro here? >> oh. >> can it go like a pro after lockup next week? what do you think? >> you know the way i feel on go proi. if the marketplace hasn't decided whether you're buying software, content company versus hardware company, i think either way there's a lot of competition entering the marketplace. really competitive, with taser there's so much competition out there i wouldn't be a buyer on this. >> stock's going to 45. the valuation is crazy and i think if you have a lockup that's concern for it. the level of the stock is where i traded to after the apo. >> i'm actually more with tim on this. i think 48 is where i'd start to

don't bet against the market long term. if you want to know how destructive that is, ask peter schiff. you have to own equities long-term. don't gamble, forecast and predict in the short run. got to own equities 20 or 30 years. market timing increases risk, not decreases it. if you're betting against the market -- liz: what are you picking now? >> i gave you some examples of papa john's and krispy kreme. david: red robin. >> yeah, i gave you, it is a little taste of some i micro cap stocks we own in the portfolio. we own them because they're not great companies individually but they're examples of small u.s. companies, based on research by you mean fama who run the nobel prize. small company stocks have 3 to 4% higher expected return than growth stocks. david: you're afraiding -- avoiding hedge funds, why? >> hedge funds are loser's bet. if you look at last year they're only up one, one 1/2%. if you go back to 2007, looking at hedge funds as a category, they're up less than 1%. i mean it is devastating. also stay away from

we have selling off the betting unit to a private equity buyer.s better because we the shares surging on the back of earnings. they are saying that the revenue is up by 26% and the earnings are up 51%. mobile is where it is that. if you want to lay a bet, do it on your mobile phone. welcome to the big boys club. they are being put on the ftse 100. the companies have done phenomenally this year and are up. what is falling out is commodity stocks. and it isoming out clearly getting a boost. the main area of trading is the ftse 100 and that all takes place on december 22. the announcement came late last night. back to you. >> thank you very much. those are the stocks we are watching. let's change gears and look at the ipos. what should we expect in 2015. -- 2015? theing me to discuss outlook is the head of capital markets at j.p. morgan. great to have you with us. let's start with the ipo. the media business is a funny business. you talk about them and you hype them up. you talk about alibaba and you ridicule the performance. talk about the ipo perfo

on which solar technology wins when you bet on us. you're betting on the trend towards people using more of these. we don't make these things. we put them on your roof and then make electricity with them. >> will we be in a time when the states will say, listen, you've got to take the individuals, stuff everywhere? we're close, right? >> each state will be different in terms how they regulate solar power. but this is a trend with cell phones, it's not going to be stopped. >> you have big natural gas. where are we going in terms of coal in the country. will we be out of coal five years from now? do we have enough nat gas, where's the market five years from now. >> the nat gas revolution has been astonishing. but if you start saying everyone who wants to use it for a chemical industry, compressed natural gas cars, complete placement of coal fired power, that's more natural gas than we have. you don't bet against the producers of natural gas right now because they've been right for the last six years, our view is that we want coal to be

what is he betting? he is betting volatility will completely plummet for the next couple of weeks. these puts expire in two weeks. he is making a serious bet that volatility in the marketplace is going to plummet and that the s&p 500 is going to keep going higher and higher and higher. pretty much a straight bet. real interesting trade. david: larry, i want to go to you, because that bet really depends a lot on what the consumer does leading up to the christmas holidays. there have been some mixed signs there. at first we thought they were going to do great. online sales were terrific. but mall sales were lousy. there was a "wall street journal" article suggesting that while the price of gas has come down, that is big boon for consumers, all their other prices and health care and cell phone bills and everything are going up. what do you think will happen with the consumer, larry? >> i think the consumer will continue to spend. just as you mentioned gas prices coming down is sort of a reprieve from, you know, extra, like a tax break to the consumers. we know that the economy is made

her story is that they were actually supposed to travel with a different bet. she's done this a few times. they said it compared to the boat they were supposed to have traveled on. it was a lot shabbier. it was an older boat. so they weren't very happy with that. >> what sort of stories are we hearing from this terrible night that they've endured? presumably now it's daylight. things will be a little easier for them onboard. they'll be warmer at least. >> yeah. well onboard, the situation can'ts to be pretty much the same as it was. the only change is that now some crew from the rescue teams have been dropped on to the ship so i'm hoping that means blankets, water, some sort of supplies for the people because up until last night, they had gone nearly 18 hours without anything. no water no blankets. no way to heat the boat. >> we know what's beginning to happen to the boat where they'll actually take it to? >> yes, the bet is being towed to italy. we haven't had many updates about the towing operation. there was a lot of to and froing. the decision was made by t

. >> bet on it.you've probably been in a conversation or argument where you get really pompous and you make all these claims and somebody says, okay, let's bet it on. and you feel it right then. you go, oh, wait a minute. what are we betting on? how are we wording that exactly again? i don't mean that part, i meant this. now you back off because you know, now you're on the hook. incentives change your mind. >> and prediction markets are doing that like sites like prediction markets. they're more accurate. >> if there's a betting market on it, just look at the odds. >> thank you, robert hanson. to join this discussion, please follow me on twitter. use the hash tag reason or like my facebook page. you can post on my wall. i want to know what you think. >>> coming up, most people believe a minimum wage helps the poor. most people believe charity helps the poor more than investment. they're irrational. that's next. . >> raise the wa . raise the wa >>> raise the wage! >> one of the simplest and fastest wa

i think high quality bonds are a safe bet, just not a high returning bet. >> last part, i kind of liedst question is two in one. who do you read? what do you read? is there an investor that you -- currently alive -- that you respect or emulate? you have a chance i'm sure most of your former colleagues at pimco are watching this, send out a message to them. >> i read if i can. bridge water associates daily release. i have an availability for a while and transitioned to janus. to me it is a good topic to list in terms of economic template. i read jeremy granthem's pieces, an investor with a story in history that has a with a shens what's going on. there are investors out there that, you know, perhaps not as storied in terms of today's presentation but you -- >> a chance to speak all of your former colleagues? >> well, i would say to my former colleagues, you know, do well. and, you know, go forward like, you know, hopefully our foundation which stresses clients first which stresses performance over a long-term basis and which continues the success that pimco's had for 40 years. >> now yo

you made bets on both. the wind bet has not worked out. and the solar bet you put more money on the table. explain to me. >> wind technology economic. it is changing kinetic energy into electric energy. you have to make them big, which means that you have to put big wind terms away from the population. that requires high voltage transmission lines. i have never been a believer that this country wants to build a lot of high voltage transmission lines. that made us a little sceptic about wind. having said that, people are bidding wind power at 2-3 cents costello watt wholesale, a low price, competitive with fossil fuel at that price. solar, on the other hand is a nanotechnology, the only nanotechnology in our industry, and downsizes well. so solar power on a distributor basis in the united states competes against the retail price for electricity, meaning that you can avoid the charges. >> the concept being that you home. >> yes, as a home owner you are monetising an underutilized asset, your own solar resource. if you could make solar on you

so for at least the beginning part of our morning, lancaster avenue would be the best bet. tractor-trailer accident south on the new jersey turnpike right down near exit two. so if you are headed south this morning, down near the delaware memorial bridge, may want to use i295 to save yourself some time. >> bridges looking good, deal with fog delays over the spans, septa says in good shape. just watch for some slippery spots because of the wet platforms as you board and exit the trains. back to you. >> fox 29 live on the scene every building fire at narberth. on the 900 block every montgomery avenue, no word on what started this fire, but you can see, live pictures, as the to fight this fire at the fast sign building or at least what once was the fast signs building. all right, time now, 5:48. congress is ready to hear showdown between japanese makers of the dangerous recalled airbags, and the national highway traffic safety administration, the airbags can explode and shoot shrapnel, during a accident. the maker, t a/k/a ta fail to to he can panned the recall of faulty airba