leonid pasechnik and the project big fed change. for youth affairs. the guys came to rapture both from the performance and from the most interesting thing to travel. i was in moscow for the first time. i liked a very cool performance. most of all i liked all these days the beauty of the performance is very excellent. i really liked the kremlin building, where i saw the clock only on tv, and now in life. on this trip to moscow for children from the lpr does not end tomorrow, an excursion to the museum of cosmonautics and a long walk around the capital. keep an eye on this, stay on time in the know, and now on the air of channel one, the continuation of the detective major, the new season. guarded lapotniki weapons have no? somehow from where? it was possible to get it quickly. some days mean , he only works for cash. maybe by chance a tramp can? well, as for me, he was afraid that you knew him? tell me that night, when the accident happened, why were you driving the ignatiev car? so it happened. how can you get it? just let the new car go for a drive.

the countdown is on to tomorrow's big fed decision. morgan stanley's mike wilson will join us with his take on where the markets are headed ahead of chair powell's next move plus we'll hear on how the credit and debt markets are prepping for a new market reality. >>> and later, we'll go inside the numbers for snap and amd results out after the bell from silicon valley and beyond, a special edition of "fast money" starts right now. >> they're suppression. >> live at the montagne bleu i'm melissa lee. riding shotgun dan nathan and guy adami. great to have you guys here. back in new york, karen finerman and tim seymour joining the action sadly, they are a little colder and less sunny than we are but we want to get straight to a big post earnings plunge in shares of snap the company said it slashed digital ad budgets last year the call kicks off later in the hour cnbc's julia has all the numbers. >> it's a first quarter warning that is sending snap shares down about 13% in after-hours trading. the big headline says snap's quarter to date r

big discussion of the day. is this about to be the fed's late rate hike is a reversal at hand? my next guest said fed sentiment is peak hawkishness. similar to 2000 before the dropoff, 2006, and even 2019 he expects the fed to turn more dovish after tomorrow's meeting. joining us now is steve liesman and torson people don't like these data points because they feel too fatalistic they're like, come on. why do you think fundamentally speaking we're about to see a change of tune here? >> i think things are actually better than the labor market is appreciating for every month where inflation continues to tick lower and the economy is still doing well, i still think that's a very important sign that if we get inflation by the middle of this year, the fed target of 2%, that means we're just a few months away from the market saying this inflation risk that we worried so much about last year is no longer the significant risk that we thought it was. >> steve, all eyes on you. >> i think the market is exactly where he says it is going. the question is whether or not the fed is there i th

>> the fed is a big driver for this week. actually, probably not the biggest driver we'll get the employment cost index tomorrow that is a key indicator that the fed is watching to see how much pressure is behind wages i think that is why something that is key to understand what the trajectory of inflation and how sticky inflation will be ultimately, i think it comes down to earnings bloomberg has $200 on the s&p 500 this year. roughly 17.5 multiple broader index. that's a little rich if you do see some softening or a mild recession, we would expect those earnings to come down i think hearing from big tech and some other mega cap names will be really interesting, particularly from a guidance perspective. technology's got a number of headwinds, whether it's ads, consumer spending and consumer-facing electronics or chips in some of the overhang on the memory side. at the end of the day, it's really an inventory management problem, which just takes time. >> big question is how much time and how quickly or how much in advance the

depend on what we get on thursday with the inflation print and then we had to be big -- two pretty big fedakers. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. here is laura wright. >> a third member of sam bankman-fried -- sam bankman-fried's inner circle is set to seek a cooperation deal in the collapse of ftx. any deal would leave sam bankman-fried isolated after the ftx founder pleaded not guilty last week to aid criminal courts. bloomberg has learned apple will ditch a key broadcom chip from its devices by 2025 as part of its push to use more homegrown components. sources say apple also plans to have its own cellular modem chip in action by about the same time. apple is broadcom's largest customer, accounting for about 20% of the chipmaker's revenue last year. bloomberg sources say bhp group has struck a deal to sell australian coal to a chinese firm in the latest sign of easing trade curbs between the two nations. bhp sold two shipments of metallurgical coal to china for loading in late january. china slapped an informal ban on china -- australian coal in late 2020 as relations soured. t

we have the big pro fed tool will come in to meet up on that. ok here we have most main thing asked us just 10 years, 50 or 20 years with staffing. and maybe this is the solution. so people are made a reflecting on these the offices because of this and i showed with rescue about where to even the architect when i got to watch about got so what we did was she quit publish a flight time number young with a little like helping another ends on paper coming from the window for does it have been trying to coordinate with english on the front? yeah. and we're going to learn a government will actually in the movie i yeah, i didn't want to run into whether heat the heat again, this is evan candies with me tomorrow and have got, do i lose? i don't see if i'm just like you said this is in bud. that's your doing much. bud was actually be on the lease. no bombing blood is still still the like still here. oh lou, so my family fun in call me call. oh fun. i live, he's still down there who do our best guess. hello. yes. what would that be? yeah. would that be?

we have the big pro fed tool will come into new phones that we have the most lending assets just 10 years, if any, are 20 years with staffing and maybe this is the solution. so people are made a professional aspect of reflecting on these the offices because of a rescue about where to even the architect went up the front. i've got to watch cobra. gotcha. but we said, well, she gripped a fuck, i can go with a little with can you help me in the winter? the pretty little luncheon before and the english on the card or by the government will actually in the movie i yeah, i didn't want to run into whether he's going to the poa. and again, this is evan is with me, tomorrow and have got, do i don't see if i'm just like is it isn't bud was actually doing much bud actually be on a lease. no bomb in blood is still still the next year. so so my son will phone in the call from may i live? he slowed down. did they do our best guess? hello. yeah. but could that be? yeah. would that be? what is your last? this is a several. she says, i nancy, verify my been with she's like, it's been fun. i did the it got

we have a big pro fed tool will come with us just 10 years. 15 years, 20 years with staffing, and maybe this is the solution. so people are made at all. that's the national aspect of reflecting on these offices because of a way to even the architect went up front. i've got to watch about got so what we did was she quit a why i couldn't quite tell them we i would not mind quite nice to practicing them. i wouldn't look ah, a little with fish coming from the wind of a pretty little bench in the pony english on a farm here. and we're about to learn a little less shima. google. yeah, i really need to, didn't want to run into whether he's going to the poa, he's been again, this is evan candies with me tomorrow. and i do, i don't see if i'm just like is it is in bud actually do much. she bud actually barely leaves. no bomb in blood is so still be like 7 year old son. some of fun in community call from may he had he saw down there who do our best guess. hello. yeah . could that via would that be? what is your last 6 in by this image? not a bad, didn't overstep, won't use it. as i know. verify m

fed and market gap here. we can show you how that's worked they were apart in the summer and that led by the way, to the big speechan they were through the late summer and the fall. then the fed went up and the market said, no, we're not going there with you and that's that gap we've been talking about, the end there the other thing, mike, you mentioned financial conditions in the 7:00 hour in the 8:00 hour, i come with a chart of financial conditions. that's how this works. this is the financial conditions index. you can see the december 14th last meeting there, things are a little bit looser from where they were, but quite a bit looser from where they were in october. this takes into accounts, stocks, bonds and all sorts of things the first outcome is the walkish outlook which is the need for the fed to tighten andrew asked earlier why the market is higher the market has been moving closer to the fed. maybe in the anticipation of hawkish commentary you go your way, i'll go mine. i'm not concerned about the fed market gap here at all and then the third outcome is, hey, any room over there at hotel dove maybe the

fed is gone too far? what would that look like and how big a is that? >> inflation is coming down in the risk of over tightening is listening at the margin. i think the reality is the fed is the looking at a lot of coincident and lagging indicators to guide where policies going, a typical fed cycle, driving through the rearview mirror. it's very challenging environment for the real economy. there is a lot of focus on lags and inherent policy and housing is the first major sector to react. corporate household balance sheets take much longer to absorb these hikes. it's very hard to see this in real time or even one or three months hence. i think the risk of over tightening particularly to the point about staying high for too long is still quite elevated. we are very kosher -- cautious on global growth and we expect another challenging year for risk. katie: on the housing market, if you are in the recovery camp, what does that mean for the u.s. housing market given the turbulence we have seen? >> housing is one of the most if not the most sensitive sector o

fed is doing? >> i think it's a big threat to the fed. couple reasons if i were on fomc, god forbid, i would be working really hard to get all my rate increases done this spring so that when the -- when the treasury actually runs out of money, they're not forced to be pumping money into the system at the same time as they're raising rates. the second problem they have is, let's say congress doesn't raise the dead ceiling let's say the treasury runs out of cash. what does the fed do then? on one hand, they don't want to interfere in the political dispute. on the other hand, they have the responsibility to maintain financial stability. this is exactly the conundrum the bank of england faced a few months ago, and it's not pleasant. >> ron, react to what david just said. >> i agree wholeheartedly. you know, if i were -- look, for other reasons, i would not continue raising rates at this juncture if i were the federal reserve. there's enough data to suggest inflation is running over meaningfully, and other aspects of it, wage inflation and the

fed on twitter. they're trending big time.g that folks out there are learning about them because nothing, nothing has more impact on their lives these days. we'll be right back. ♪ .. lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. charles: twitter is a topic today, fomc investing in terrorists, monkey talk fed the fed. i am happy to see fomc at the fed at the top of the list and several reasons. every american should know what the federal reserve is and how it was creative and how powerful they've become over the years. the federal reserve needs to be held accountable, there's a fine line these days between accountability and politics. one day highly classified documents is sedition, the next day an innocent mistake but the fed is in the midst of crushing every american. we fought back against the king of england for last. the fed to share, not this one but a future

that's certainly the fed is a huge driver. this week is a big week. we have a ton of earnings. deciding we have a labor market report at the end of the week. this week is going to be an interesting one to see where the market moves near term, but the big issue right now is where central banks are and financial conditions as frustrating as it may be to the fed, financial conditions have eased a bit over the course of the last number of months, which has to drive chair powell crazy. >> you know, joe, yesterday what got some people talking was spanish cpi, a hot surprise, and certainly something that the market does not want to see turned into a trend at least in europe i wonder, when you talk about commodities rebounding year to date and numbers like that, what is the danger of inflation making a second run and would the market have quite a visceral reaction to that >> well, carl, i think that's an important risk if you see inflation, inflation sort of rear its ugly head again, and surprise on the upside, that in our view would cause central banks to be that much more aggressive

their fed up big president can faith increasing. criplin baba protested, accused the president of changing the country's democracy into a dictatorship noticed me a dilemma. pe said, is the one who runs the government. he should be answerable for what he has done in the country for a year and a half. he's done nothing. and monopolized all the authorities and institutions in what he has made promises. he has done nothing. i'm and i don't care if i get was elected into as a 19 since then he has got published after judiciary, parliament and the rule of political parties to show a strong opposition supporters of different political groups. jalap in dounia, despite a strong police presence of mind that we're with a democratic model. we're with freedom equality and with the state of economic and social rights. by that you know, in president doesn't see this. he only sees people as subjects. i protest to 3 think of who has been in the something taken on the crisis. millions are struggling to make ends meet that were delivered. there are food shortages with the economy is in bad shape and we are fi

the real fed funds rate as we get the disinflation is poised to shoot higher above our star number, the big takeaway when that happens policy gets really restricted really fast the fed generally does not ease or does not ease without a recession. so you need a recession to prompt the fed to cut rates enough to get that soft landing. the other big reason is housing affordability. so we've seen a lot of hope that housing has kind of bottomed here, and it just doesn't wash with the data. i'm not a housing doomer there's a lot of housing doomers. i think there is an under supply in the economy and good demographic tailwind but when i look at it the average real house payment is 2,800 per month. we always have topped out around 2,200 to 2,400 at the very top in the housing market. we need to have housing affordability come down without a crash in house prices if we wants a soft landing that requires the fed to be reactive i think. >> yeah. obviously, mortgage rates on 30 year down 1 percentage point from the highs we need to probably keep in that direction to make a dent in the affordability pic

i'm brian sullivan in for kelly evans once again it's certainly been a big week of fed speaker dominating the headlines and we're not quite done yet fed governor chris waller speaking right now at the counsel on foreign relations steve liesman is there let us get straight to him for the headlines. steve? >> brian, thanks very much fed governor chris waller will say that monetary policy should continue to tighten. however, he currently favors right now a 25 basis point increase at the fed's next meeting, which as you know, happened at the end of this month and the noums comes on the first of february. he says the fed still has a considerable way to go to get to its 2% inflation goal. he expects to support continued tightening of monetary policy, even after, is the implication, this upcoming meeting. economic activity says it's holding up well with the fourth quarter gdp, around 2%, but notes that it's slowing and he expects that economic slowing to continue that's part of his forecast. he says there's ample evidence that the fed's rate increases have dampened demand and economic activity.

>> the fed. >> all right, thank you all so much. we are counting down to the bigk next week with the fed rate decision on wednesday. the consensus is for 25 basis points and we will see if we get a hawkish jerome powell at 2:30 p.m. from new york, that does it for us, same time, same eyes next week. this is bloomberg real yield and this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh i screwed up. mhm. avalarahhh i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success that and the paycheck

shortage, people did not allow themselves to sink so low and simply stood in queues, and in today's big and well-fedy recently these same people watched approvingly at the destruction of sanctioned products and nothing embarrassed them and no one protested and did not stutter about hunger and poverty, it was for the sake of the greatness of the center of culture and spirituality, and then from the height of all-russian greatness they threw themselves into pique for other products with a discount, i see sugar, i see no obstacles, even if around february up to 5 kg bags of sugar, the method of goods and vinegar in the supermarket reduced the price by 15 rubles, a discount of only 15 rubles, it is about 6 uah. it would seem that normal people have turned into animals, although not even animals they don't allow themselves such a thing, they didn't even have time to put the product on the shelf. the first batch of pellet soap after the second rushed to the door of the warehouse . looking at such shots, you might think that a famine has started in russia and grab a pack of sugar a question of survival, bu

fed. all as the flood of corporate issuance continues. you begin with a big issue of potential downshifts in rate hikes. >> the fed has a clear path toward 25 basis points. >> one over month cpi is negative. >> it was a cool number but one priced in. >> what would you save the fed hike to 25 basis points? >> two more 25 basis point hikes. >> i think the market is too optimistic. >> why are we so confident now? everybody was wrong last year. >> the cbiz shelter inflation, core services is still high. >> china is -- the economy which is inflationary. >> that cannot be on autopilot. >> jay powell has made very clear, 5.5. what's we think we'll get to five in be there at the end of the year. >> the more important thing is how long rates stay high. >> high holds. >> the market has to look at what the fed is actually communicating to them. katie: joining us now is morgan stanley's, wells fargo moreno connor, and peter cheer of academy. we heard the consensus. this six straight months of declines in headline cpi equal a 25 basis point hike from the fed next month? >

real shortage, people don’t let you go down so low and simply stood in queues, and in today’s big and well- fedd you that very recently, these same people watched the destruction with approval sanctioned products and nothing bothered them and no one protested and they didn't stutter about hunger and poverty, it's for the sake of greatness. it is clear that it is the place of the center of culture and spirituality, and then from the height of all russian greatness they rush into the cool pike for the next goods with a discount. i see sugar, i don't see obstacles, even if people around asked to get to 5 kg bags of goods , the supermarket management lowered the price by 15 rubles, a discount of only 15 rubles, which is about 6 uah, it turned into seemingly normal people into animals, although no, not even animals for themselves they don't allow 18 products, they didn't even have time to put the first batch of pellet soap on the shelf, after the second they rushed to the door of the warehouse, looking at such footage. you might think that a famine has started in russia and to grab a pack of sugar i

tomorrow is the big one, the big day fed chair jerome powell and company will decide and announce by much to hike interest rates. john hilsenrath, who is a fed expert, he reads the tea leaves. easier to tell us which words they are looking for to indicate what the future moves in march and may might be from the committee and from walking a dirt road to school everyday to walking the red carpet, matthew knowles, father to beyoncÉ tells us about his time working at xerox until parting ways to help manage his daughter's singing career. on top of the world until 2019 doing so when he was diagnosed with what he calls chest cancer, male breast cancer. hear his amazing story and how serious this issue is on the everyone talks to lose podcast, get it wherever you listen to a brand-new episode, beyoncÉ's dad, matthew knowles. 25 minutes before the closing bell rings, we are coming right back. isor... -surprise! -for you, mama. ...can help you open those doors. by proactively reviewing your entire portfolio. with an eye on taxes and risk. doors were meant to be opened. hi, i'm darlene and i lo

big gains. even alphabet claimi climbing. the fed's first interest rate decision of the year comes could it derail the market enthusiasm we have seen here the markets are trading as if everything is going to be amazing. >> it's the things you just talked about for next week make this one of the biggest weeks and including a host of other important earnings jobless claims numbers are still near their low the payrolls are very important to this dynamic. but get back to the market look at this move that the qqqs, the nasdaq have had. that's a change of character instead of making successive lows on a relative basis, they have now been breaking out if you're a market bull, you've got a lot of things to be happy about. you've got the breakout, breadth of the market, peak dollar and peak rates bynum makes next week really interesting, because kind of skiddish bears who are not feeling so great right now also have to counteract with very naive bulls. i think by friday, i think we could drift up through all of this, put yourself in a place whe

last year, we destabilized the center of the global asset markets, the fed funds rate expectations, big shift in terms of the fed or treasury yields in the u.s. very destabilizing for local equities this year -- global equities. this year, we have the prospect of lower fixed and scum -- fixed income volatility. and our investment sentiment, we will be emphasizing core fixed income, good yields so you can get there and be careful about the risk you add high quality investment grade credit made sense, but we do not need to have lower quality credit, high-yield. we can get good enough returns we think in the center of this distribution and continue to respect the fact the recession risk is two ways. it could be better than our baseline, or a lot worse. jonathan: this is another thing i do not like about emerging markets right? andrew: positions, select fx positions, local or dollar based yen. i think it will depend on your asset allocation. for us at this stage, core fixed income very good yields about 5%. as we get more confidence in terms of the shape of the recovery and the path of the

try oh no, it's too big big, then they fed 200 bikmaks and french fries in the white house the trump-erau now in washington another diet on the depletion of natural resources of diplomatic contacts and economic partnerships in the homeland of mcdonald's he was not digested for his unwillingness to leave the lucrative russian market. as a result, under the new sign, almost two a dozen brands, but dissatisfied still remained now. kiev is already demanding sanctions for european pharmaceutical companies for producing medicines in russia. this is the big sunday news. and so, what will happen next in our program more than ukraine, the events of banderia or close their eyes and the pechersk lavra is surrounded by schismatics intolerant. christmas our correspondent on the island of big potem in the kherson region, and, allegedly, the capture of which kyiv macron reported to western sponsors earned praise from zelensky for the supply of weapons, then also tries. salute why don't miracles happen in life? here they are, miracles are happening everywhere right now . people share their festive mood

ira: it won't be a big surprise if the fed goes 25. agree with the idea that really what palaces afterward will be of key importance to how the markets react because he could be a little bit hawkish and in particular, he keeps on needing to say that when they reach the terminal rate they are going to stay there for longer than with the market is currently pricing. i think that is where the markets are getting things wrong and kind of discounting the fed 's resolve. regardless of whether or not the fed goes another 50 or 75, we are nearing the end. it is very early cuts that kind of concern jay powell. tom: on that point, do we expect to see pushback? if we do, what is the market reaction to hawkish rhetoric that accompanies 25 basis? kriti: i think the ecb the day later is actually going to leave the train. if you think about with the federal reserve is doing, of course a hawkish rhetoric is going to a company that because that has been the trend so far. any sort of dovish pipit is only going to lead to some sort of rally in an equity

inflation is the big one and fed is the other one, in terms of the pace at which they have increasedates over 2022 has been very significant. we need them to step off that gas pedal and let the economy catch up. guy: happy new year. in terms of how you would handicap the recession risk right now, what would that look like? can we avoid a recession? what are we preparing for? katrina: we could debate this until we go into recession or not. the key is how deep is the recession that we go into, if we do go into one. and even if we do, we are in the camp that it is going to be mild. you have a look at the market, we don't have excess in supply here. we have had very tight supply in a number of markets. we look at the jobs market and we are talking about this being a job-filled recession, not a job loss recession. i think even if we do tip into recession, it will be a slight tip and it is going to be very mild, much milder than people are talking about. alix: it feels like there are two camps that are evolving. you have those stubbornly high inflation and fed rate hikes, plus unemployment

wednesday, you can see we have reports from meta is a big one, also peloton. that's when the fedounces its interest rate decision. the expectation is another 25 basis point hike. thursday, the big day. you have apple, amazon, and alphabet, ford, starbucks, and the dow stocks merck and honeywell and friday is the big january jobs report, 18 5,000 jobs expected to be added and that's the weakest in two years. ashley: wow what a busy week indeed. all right, lauren thank you very much. now this , a former advise or to president clinton says president biden's mishandling of classified documents could spell doom for him in 2024. take a listen. >> joe biden can be defeated in the democratic nomination pretty much anybody could knock him over and it goes way beyond his classified documents in the house investigators can prove it at a hearing i think they will be able to. ashley: you could just breathe on him and knock him over. fascinating stuff, charlie hurt joins us now. charlie, do you agree with dick morris? >> oh, i absolutely believe he is definitely vulnerable but of course the pr

fed had been trying to push it up. participation goes up, more people coming into the labor market. then the big one the average hourly earnings month over month fall to 3/10. starting to get closer and closer to 3.5% that the fed thinks is the sustainable level for average hourly earnings. kriti: one of the big questions for the market participants is what does this mean for the next fed meeting? is that an appropriate question to be asking we are still seeing fed officials saying we have to go hard on inflation? >> it's appropriate but it is early. we have the cpr report next thursday. -- cpi report next thursday. if we see further weakening in cpi, the fed will be locked into 25 basis points. if it is a close call, they might want to do 50 because they all say the need to get higher than 4.5% we have now. some want to go over 5%. it's a question of do you do it right away or spread it out over a couple of months and see how things are going? kriti: we will watching very closely. let's get more insight bring in another expert. a senior international economist at vanguard. is this an appropriat

to seeing you. terrible ai, if you stick your nose into this apartment again, then your big business will be fed't seem almost like a crocodile, but much better than gena, they want to buy your puppy here. ukraine's economy is completely destroyed by the west completely dependent on weapons and money from the west , former us secretary of state condoleezza rice, pentagon chief robert gates, said in a joint article for the washington post against the backdrop of a military impasse, western pressure on kiev will grow. so the authors believe, and then the situation will become irreversible. according to the russians, ukraine will finally turn into a quote, a drug addict who has sat down tightly on the needle of western assistance, we will force moscow to change plans by means of sanctions and threats, it is no longer possible , the article says.

it is a big week for a -- for major central banks and investors are expecting the fed to slow the rate of rate -- the rate of rate hikes. haidi: trading resumes after the weeklong holiday driven by consumption rebound. vonnie: asia's richest man hits back at hindenburg research calling its actions a calculated securities fraud. let's get a quick check on wall street. last week we began with major tech earnings and we saw a bit of a rally. the s&p 500 up a quarter of a percent and more than double for the nasdaq. that is not saying much since we are only four weeks in. maybe it is a little bit of fomo. we don't know what we will get next week. we will get a raft of tech earnings next week but the major event of the week is a federal reserve meeting. armed bulls will have their first challenge of 2023. -- bond bulls will have their first challenge of 2023. and a quick check of crude. still below $80 a barrel. that could be a story for later in the year. haidi: let's take a look at markets are ready trading. we are watching new zealand markets. the devastating floods will see an impact wh

big moves up or down. liz: wait you forgot the fed. big meeting wednesday. charles: oh, my goodness. liz: you and me, that's our two hours. this is a crucial, crucial wednesday coming up and we'll see if there's that kind of movement or if people just kind of hang out on the sidelines we shall see. happy friday, charles. charles: thanks a lot. liz: fox market alert can we punch up bed, bath and beyond shares calling it flat toggling between the up and down line. it is now about 24 hours from when we first brought you this story where the embattled stock imploded 22% after the company said it's running on fumes, doesn't have sufficient resources to repay outstanding loans. the "wall street journal" now reporting the home goods chain is fighting to avoid outright liquidation of the business. that headline is coming out at the moment we'll keep an eye on this developing story but let's get to this breaking news. one week, and you heard me say, one week does not a trend make, but how about four as we kickoff the final hour of trade on this friday the broader market in the green but the n

fed is going to be looking at is this month-over-month price drop. we saw prices decline. we haven't seen that since this inflation crisis started, so that's a big deal. if we keep seeing numbers like this, that will bring inflation down closer to the 2% level that the fed is targeting. investors seem to like this inflation report. we see u.s. stocks up pretty significantly today, markets are betting that the fed is going to be able to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. instead of slamming the brakes on the company, maybe they can tap the brakes. that would lower the risk that they overdo it and accidently cause a recession. >> the next decision expected early february. thank you. >> thanks. >>> we turn to the deadly california storms now. a much-needed break from the rain today, but sadly, more is coming. a new system hits in just hours, as millions clean up from the last one. across the state, weeks of flooding, mudslides and falling trees have killed at least 18 people. in the mountains, 8 feet of snow has fallen since christmas alone. 5 more feet are possible within the next storm. cnn's veronica miracle is in salinas, california. what's

another chart i want to show you as to do with the fact that services are the fed's big concern, because that involves sticky things like wages, and in a tight labor market and they have only started to come down recently. this chart shows you core services and housing on a monthly basis is definitely starting to move lower, that will be closely watched, and of course the trend cannot be too good. it is tough for the fed right now because they do not one markets to loosen financial conditions by assuming the fed will start selling down the pace of rate hikes or even pause, and that will be the communication challenge after their february 1 meeting. rishaad: susan collins suggesting 25 instead of 50. what is the thinking? >> she cannot change the course of it on her own. however, it is a debate, everyone around the table at a fed meeting, all members speak, presented their view on the economy, their view on the right course of rates. they all have influential voices, that is my sense of it, and she is thinking it open the door to 25, talking about it as a real possibility, maybe being in

always very busy, but it did see big institutional prints and earlier this week we saw a big purchase of the feds nearly 4,000 actually of those were purchased, one of the blocks we saw was just over 13,000 paying 375, relatively short dated. we're only looking up to february 17th for that but it does seem clear possibly a hedge, but some institutional participants are leaning short like carter is >> brian, what is your hunch >> well, when it comes to apple and a lot of the big mega cap type stocks, it is not the best environment. yes, some interest rates have come down. but with apple, we sold a little bit today because i think that there is some bit of a run like carter mentioned to the up side and it is not in addition to see the put buyer come in. to me that tells me that maybe you get some sort of pullback here i think that there are other parts of the market when you seat gdp that we're in and the interest rate environment, it is not great. go back to the early 2000s, it wasn't great for the big mega caps i don't know if this is the environment to hold apple but i can see where people are

big question is how much more might be to come. and let's now turn to the latest signals from the fed steve liesman speaking today with fed governor christopher waller at the council on foreign relations. steve joins us now with the big takeaways from that conversation, steve. >> yeah, thanks, mike, an important one, fed governor chris waller pushing back against the market's optimistic and dovish view on the outlook for inflation ans the fed needso hike as much as 75 basis points to ensure inflation is brought back to the fed's 2% goal and the market may have it wrong here >> the market has a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away we have a different view inflation is not going to just miraculously melt away it's going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down, and therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer and not start cutting rates by the end of the year. >> the fed and the market are about 72 basis points apart. average fed forecast 5.13. the market has the fed raising to 490 and undecutting down to . waller says he needs six months of improving inflation data bv he's going to pause. he s

if you stick your nose into this apartment again, then your big business will be fed, so it will nota crocodile, but much better than gena, they want to buy your puppy here.

recession, it is going to be a fed-induced recession and the fed can in the recession by subsequently easing monetary policy. i don't think there is a big instability cataclysm that pushes the economy into a deep recession. i think the fed has the controls . when they need to ease, they can do so. the job for them is not to ease too soon and to ease in a timely way. shery: bloomberg opinion columnist and former fed president, bill dudley. to consider -- to continue our series of growth forecast, david ingles has more. what are the dominant trends to keep in mind and is any economy stand out to you? david: happy new year. it's the first time i'm speaking to you. i think bouncing off what bill dudley was talking about, recession risks mostly at the moment seems to be a dm story, not so much in asia pacific story. a dominant theme has been when you look at these forecasts, these are full-year forecasts for 2000 when he three. a lot if not all of these numbers have been taken down from june and july by about 1%. australia is a good example. at -- in june it was close to 3%, same with south korea. when you look at southeast asia, when you lo

and earnings versus the fed, big tech drags down equities. what is leading the market, the macro or micro? germany will send tanks to ukraine and the u.s. said to follow in the big step against their fight against russia. i am alix steel with guy johnson in london, welcome to "bloomberg markets." this is shaping up to be an ugly day and it raises the question about the price ahead and earnings and what do you guy: get punished for? guy:you get punished -- what do you get punished for? guy: you get punished very quickly. bank of canada is an interesting interlude because in some ways there is an expectation for central banks and the ecb has more word to job and further to go -- wood to chop and further to go. this is something the market is going to want to pay attention to. is this an early indicator as to where other central banks could be going, the fed, bank of england, etc.? the bank of england has raised by 25 basis points, in line with expectations, but here is the twist, the bank of canada expects to hold rates while it assesses the im

big moves up or down. liz: wait you forgot the fed. big meeting wednesday. charles: oh, my goodness.our two hours. this is a crucial, crucial wednesday coming up and we'll see if there's that kind of movement or if people just kind of hang out on the sidelines we shall see. happy friday, charles. charles: thanks a lot. liz: fox market alert can we punch up bed

i'm brian sullivan in for kelly evans once again it's certainly been a big week of fed speaker dominatingaller speaking right now at the counsel on foreign relations steve liesman is there let us get straight to him for the headlines. steve? >> brian, thanks very much fed governor chris waller will say that monetary policy should continue to tighten. however, he currently favors right now a 25 basis point increase at the fed's next meeting, which as you know, happened at the end of this month and the noums comes on the first ofeb

the fed is signaling that. we have this bigsions between what the fed says for the rest of the year and what the market say. the market says that the terminal rate will be 4.9%. they predict to rate cuts by this year. the rate is gone down to 4.4%. the fed stopped almost at 5.1%. the next one is in the march statement. if we assume the fed does 25 now. let's assume there is 25 and march. the market will go near the peak. they really say no i am not or am i? if they say no i am not i am going about five, there is very little data between that meeting and the following meeting, basically of -- you have one u.s. inflation report. there is little data for the fed to change his mind. if that is the case, the market will go, maybe the fed is going above 5%. if it is a needs to advise up its expectations. at the same time, if the fed continues to say we are at 5%, a the end of the year -- at the end of the year, this big battle that's going on now, when you get to them march plot, it will signal is the fed standing its ground or's are

fed. is this a big red light. >> don't fight the fed, that's right, and i think what we saw today is this price action tug of war is likely to continue the next few months. you have signs that on the one hand, inflation seems to be peaking. look at the manufacturing data you have a clear slump in manufacturing. you have a huge pull back in price in fact almost on par with what we had during covid there's more and more signs building that inflation is peaking, and yeah, you've got fed on the other side, on the other side of this tug of war saying that's not good enough. and we need more substantial progress, so i think what this means for stocks is that any time they try to rally, they're going to be met with an obstacle, and that is the fed. i think that's going to be the story for the next few months, unfortunately. >> what do you do? >> well, i think you recognize that 2022 has been a huge year of a reset, and 2023 should actually be a better year. it doesn't mean it's going to happen immediately what i mean by that, let's talk about things we're optimistic about. inflation is indeed pe

one big thing, tightening of the fed.ng up hong kong's borrowing costs, and also the external demand of the global economy is slowing down this year, which is dragging exports. even with china's reopening of the border, it is not going to shift the other two big headwinds, other we would expect some easing probably in the second half of the year. haslinda: we are seeing reaction from what just broke. people familiar saying china hasn't doubled back and the three red lines have pretty much weighed on the chinese property sector. the question really is how soon could we see an impact from that, and is it enough? eric: i think it is just some addition to an already quite comprehensive package trying to rescue the property market, right? we have seen lots of easing on the development side and the question is how soon we are going to see some stabilization in the property market. i guess one reason we have not seen any significant rebound yet is because of covid zero, which has restricted people's, you know, confidence and wil

the figures in december climbing by 235,000 versus the estimate of 153,000 that was a big surprise given the fed's sort of attention to payrolls and so forth compared to those wall street estimates of 153,000 the fed is attempting to slow the economy just a bit but big tech firms are continuing their recent string of layoffs amazon today announcing it's going to cut 18,000 workers, and here to discuss that are steve kovak and deirdre bosa i assume i'm supposed to walk over here to join you. are these cuts a tech problem, steve, solely, or is it a sign of something deeper? >> well, right now what we've seen is it's a tech problem, unique to tech, right? we saw them overhire during the pandemic there was this exuberance around technology that we're going to be stuck in our homes forever, buying new laptops and computers and phones every year forever. obviously didn't happen. and now we're seeing the pullback here. and i look at the hiring rates of the big tech firms, and you look at amazon at one end of the spectrum, over doubled their staff during the pandemic. >> during the pandemic >> now we're s

fed. also would potentially leave a big position for biden to fill for vice chair at the fed, someone whoets a vote at every meeting and whose voice is important in the policy debate, especially lately. biden already lost a fed confirmation fight should be easier this time with the 51 votes democrats have in the senate, but either way with wall street focused almost entirely on the federal reserve's policy and every word from every policymaker, especially the vice chair, especially vice chair brainard, there will be consequences for investors. >>> when we come back, block is up 30% or so so far this year. coming up, an analyst who downgraded the stock on why he thinks you should take profits now. the dow managing a stunning intraday comeback. we'll be right back. ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing down the family business... ...or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so

what we got was that big warning to investors, don't fight the fed.don't allow financial conditions to get so easy, and don't underestimate their willpower to get inflation under control. a lot of what you saw in the minutes was emphasizing the conditions they have been seeing for a while. there was a more broad sentiment we were looking for, we were looking to see whether they agreed with powell on the labor market. they did say the labor market remains tight. prices remain stubbornly high. and they have looked at this risk of over tightening, and that has faded. we predicted this yesterday out of our bloomberg, our chief economist said november in the minute saw a concern over the risk of over tightening. she predicted that would fade, and it has. according to jp morgan's economist, he said the fed needs to stomach that risk because stubbornly high inflation is the major focus point right now. that's exactly what we saw from the minutes, the same message the fed is hammering home, don't underestimate our will to end this inflation fight. dani: speak

fed. i'm a big believer in the addage don't fight the fed. but the fed does change its mind, and it's not my job to tell them what to do it's my job to anticipate what they're going to do and sometimes they change their minds. we saw them going from changing their minds about transitory inflation at the end of last year to suddenly more persistent and i think they felt the need to not only catch up with it but a move in a fashion more aggressive than the markets think. but maybe we're in an environment now where don't fight the bond market. don't fight the two year if the two-year is not getting the message i'm not getting the message. if we're going to go to 5, 5.25% we may not stay there very long. >> a spike and a drop, that's been an interesting move in yields today your job is partly to anticipate where stocks are going to go not just the fed so where are they going to go? >> last year i thought we made a low in june and that was not correct because the fed insisted on being aggressive, became more hawkish, let's put it that way and then

we are neutral tech because if you do see some big deterioration within the economy and the fed pivotswe don't want to be meaningfully underway. tech is such a big sector. but we have been looking at areas to be able to trim in the event we do see a rally. from a technical perspective, tech remains in a very distinct downtrend. when you do see rallies and downtrends, you are better off being a seller into strength than trying to chase those on some kind of emerging trend change. we really don't see any signs of that yet, which means that at the margin, we are turning tech. alix: what do you do this year? cameron: i thing with the lower expectations for energy going into 2023. 2022 was all about absolute upside. 2023, we don't believe we can have that same degree of upside. it is important to note that energy stocks outperformed the worst performing sector in communication services by one hunter percent in 2022. they also outgrew earnings by nearly 200% of the worst performing earnings sector, which was financials last year. that kind of degree of outperformance, we don't think it is re

fed can overdo it. what do you think? >> i think they couldn't comments seem to suggest they could. that had a big impact on the dollar. mmodities. it could be because the fed is getting concerned how commodities have been reacting. look at oil, we were up 8 days in a row, going for 9 today. you look at the price of copper, that was exploding. the highest price we have seen in months. maybe they see signs that even though this inflation data suggests things are cooling off, we are worried about that because of the spike in commodity prices. they don't have to cause a recession to make them happy. neil: thank you for that. always valuable to know. let's go to connell mcshane following another department, talk about the price of oil and energy. there is an alternative to that, electric vehicles. getting the stuff you really need, to get those vehicles out on the road and the numbers you need a lot of stuff from that including where connell is in minnesota, to detail all of that. connell: that is exactly why we are in one of the smallest towns you will ever see but the reason we came here is it could be important to our fu

that was a big driver of today's buying and explained bullish backdrop but let's get to the nitty gritty beyond the fed, there is no fed meeting next week and for now, let's just say starting tomorrow, earnings are going to be front and center and be furious. so far, we've seen six ways other -- six ways otherwise dead in the water stocks that have been able to jump higher and i'm going to run through these six ways right now let's start with the first one layoffs. we have seen layoffs give a pop to every company restructuring although we're here talking about layoffs large enough to move the earnings per share needle the incredible run of way fair, more on that later so gigantic large companies we see meta, alphabet, microsoft and salesforce jump on the news. in the case of salesforce. they fired 10% of the staff but four activists that own the think right now, well, they say it's not enough including the hard-nosed elliott management which owns billions of dollars worth of shares. of course, the activists aren't just concerned about the head count. there are accountability issues, too, they see inclu