. >> bill ackman pulling strings. >> bill ackman, large holder of cp. >>> banks are rising ahead of theed decision. how might a rate hike impact the banks? kayla tausche is here with some answers. >> we talk so much about the financials in the prism of the fed and so many people have tried to play this sector. largely for the last couple of years it's been a false alarm. these banks raise every time a rate hike is mentioned. banks can lend out or reinvest the excess deposits they have at higher rates once the rates go up. on the flip side, as loeans get more expensive, defaults rise and they have to pay more to consumers for savings. this will benefit them, but not by 25 basis points but at 100 basis points, bank of member saamerica is expected to see a interest of 4.5 billion. j.p. morgan 3 billion, citi 2, morgan stanley 4.1. and the regional banks, which people have been buying, have been tough to pin down because they have a lot more exposure to energy loans, that's a variable nearly impossible to solve for this time around. any bump won't happen overnight this will be a gradual hik

it was $as -- 27 as bill ackman said this company shouldn't exist, and now look at it.is about 61, so they're climbing back. >> yeah, it's climbing back. it was as high as 70, wasn't it? liz: well, this year, 61.95. >> it was higher at one point. liz: no, that's a six month. >> it was higher at one point. it was close to 60 and maybe higher. what have we got -- there we go. look, it was at 80. it came down. look how far it came down, now it's back up again. when it made that dip, i think, is when they said, listen, we're bringing in a guy named alan hoffman, he's going to run our strategic communications and corporate affairs, we're going to bring him in, and you've seen a fightback which is basically contributing to the strong coming back. they are not taking anything for granted anymore. they're fighting for their lives. i'll tell you, it was interesting, michael johnson -- who's the ceo -- had an op-ed a couple weeks ago in the washington times, i believe it was, where he went after ackman again. they're definitely on the defensive. i'm not going to recommend whether

and commodities a7hall-of-fame legends performed poorly - warren buffet (berkshire hathaway) , bill ackman (pershing square capital) worst fund year since 2004, and similar negatives from david einhorn and carlos slima7historic year, when all asset classes performed poorly poorlywhat's in store for 2016? $& anticipate 5-7% yields a7stay the course, remain versified, and tune-e-t the noisea7returns should be best leading up to november elections that does it for us here on the cbs 2 news at noon.our afternoon live at five.and you can see us right back herer tomorrow morning at 5 a-m. enjoy your afternoon. afternoon. surf, stream, download, and play on multiple devices at once, with centurylink internet. when bundled with alifying home phone plan. just call... ...right now. wanna see this as an action movie? [ deep voice ] get ready. 40 megs is only $20 a month. [ normal voice ] or d dma? [ melodramatic voice ] get up to 40 megs for $20 a month. [ normal voice] only from centurylink. speed may not be available in your area call now. cordes: st nurses are tough.h. they're problem-solvers. the

bill ackman is down 20%, david einhorn down 20%, so those are bad numbers. : who are the winners?rine: there are a number of passportt are up, like fund, millennium has pulled in $4 billion and are up about 9% or 10%. some funds are doing well and benefiting from the funds that are doing poorly. betty: thank you so much. catherine burton who covers the hedge fund industry. i want to get back to the mass shooting taking place in california. it is a developing story mark crumpton is on right now. a shooter or shooters went on a rampage today in san theardino, california, and second mass attack in the u.s. in less than a week. the shooting happened shortly before noon local time about 60 miles east of los angeles. it took place in your the inland regional center which serves people with development told disabilities. law enforcement officials said on twitter that they have confirmed between one and three suspects and were responding to reports of 20 victims. we are getting word from the white house that president obama has been briefed on this shooting by his counterterrorism advisor

why bill ackman is warning investors that this year could be his firm's worst ever.race for the white house, republican presidential hopefuls square off in las vegas. we'll bring you the highlights. it's wednesday, december 16th, 2016 and squawk box begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe concerner and andrew ross sorkin. house speaker paul ryan telling republican lawmakers that congressional leaders in the white house reached a deal. the two sides agreed to tax and spending bill that would reach a deal. 2016 through the budget year and 40 year old ban on exports. we'll get into more on that. and we'll have more from last night's gop debate in just a bit. and check out the markets on this fed decision day. gains with the dow up by 150 point. and up by triple digits once again.

erik: the other wrinkle is bill ackman's involvement.any and sits on the board. he is dissipating in a cp conference call being held right now and he says it is clear nor folks other does not want to be acquired -- clear all forks of and does not want to be acquired. he says cable leaves it will take a proxy fight to oust members of the norfolk southern thed and turn this into kind of friendly deal that is pretty much required for regulators to approve. jack: whose decision is it? the norfolk southern board representing the shareholders? you have to do what is right by the shareholders. erik: a proxy fight would give them the opportunity to decide. jack: that is where they may end up, but i think the board -- erik: we saw bill ackman do this with valeant. is it in a holy alliance when you put an activist shareholder working in conjunction with management against the third-party target? jack: i don't think so. standard and has been with us since we have had shares. you have someone who accumulates shares or sees value and gets involved. t

we are starting to get a sense of why bill ackman is involved.xy fight to put hunter harrison in place of the ceo. he may be able to orchestrate a proxy fight, but we also heard that hunter harrison that bill ackman's presence will be key to explain to norfolk southern shareholders the next offer. valuel have a contingent attached to it. which hunter said it could be confusing. david: he went straight to it. that sweetening the deal, he doesn't want to put more cash in it, but he will put a collar on it. ed: i have sat on a lot of bill ackman conference calls and he can go on a lot. so he can explain in great detail why it would be beneficial. it would have the effect of freezing the value that the bid would be and say to the shareholders, look, this is what it will be worth. hunterdon't get is why harrison cap explain that. stephanie: erik schatzker, thank you. ed hammond -- we will have more "bloomberg ," in just a few. ♪ david: consumer banking at j.p. morgan, our guests, one of the most powerful women in finance. ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh)

david einhorn for instance, he may have some powder that's try but we don't know about bill ackman fornstance, he was buying valiant still. >> and redemptions. so you think about -- making phone calls to these funds, there's no question they're lining them up for redemptions from january. so if there is a chase, a move to the end of the year, it's a chase -- >> i disagree. a lot of the investors with these guys have been with them for a long time and they're not going to be running for the door based upon -- it's not been a bad year. probably a bad quarter and maybe a bad half year. let me say something else. as a hedge fund manager one of the biggest issues you run into is not when you're down a little bit. it's when you don't catch the rally on the way back up. so you're saying does that mean they'll put powder in december no but first quarter especially if people think the market has some legs that would be the time these guys have to be back in the market. >> you have to be careful in risk management and job security. if you have money at some funds you better make sure that you ge

this is bad news for bill ackman this morning, the hedge fund manager says 2015 could be the firm's worst year ever. the funds are suffering double digit losses but ackman says they're sticking with him. in a letter to investors the firm has not been forced to sell out of positions to meet requests. valeant pharmaceuticals and platform products. read this letter. it's quite a remarkable letter for a couple of reasons. he really does outline how terrible the performance has been and also shows they have under performed since 2012 now. the stock market across the board. so it's not just bad performance this year. this is now the underperformance of just about everything else. at least since 2012 and the other poes of it is since they do have so much capital from public investors none of the money is moving. and some of this public money vehicle that he has done. they have quick redemptions and how the whole thing can blow up is almost impossible. he compares himself to warren buffet and says he thinks there's more value in these companies than the markets give them credit for and more impor

bill ackman, carl mr. squire: they had bad years. it is the worst year for pershing square ever.he first years since our inception we underperformed the s&p 500. betty: maybe nobody gets a plus. mr. squire: c is the a plus this year. but since inception, they all have a's. ♪ betty: it is 11:00 a.m. in new york, 4:00 p.m. in london, and midnight in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets. from bloomberg world here in new york, good morning. i am betty liu. here is what we are watching at this hour. oil prices rising after the u.s. government surprises with a drop in crude inventories. even some worries about the supply glut. we will look at where prices could go from here. shares of chipotle have been getting hard hit by this food contamination crisis. we will look at with the companies to do now. it is the business week cover story. from oil to metals, u.s. field stocks are getting hit by concerns the anti-jumping measures will not be able to cheaperhe industry from imports from china. we are now about 90 minutes into the trading session. i want to get to the markets desk. the ma

and despite that, the biggest shareholders, bill ackman, pershing square, they have stuck by him. surprised, but there has not been a push to get mike pearson out of there. biggestby some of the investors who own a huge percentage of this company -- i think bill ackman is close to 9% or something like that. bey look at it as this may the guy who got us into us, but he's also the guy who will get us out of this. the criticism they have taken for the strategy, i think some of the investors look at him as the person who can lead the company forward and knows the company well. they are stuck with him. i think investors are stuck with them whether they like it or not. the: the other -- carol: other thing that is true, he is been talking to investors, to shareholders, has promised more what ision to explain going on with the company. i assume that will oh forward. mentioned, thery company has an ad hoc committee from the board that is supposedly investigating all of these aspects. from a governance standpoint, you can say, hey, will they be hard enough? should they have brought in more

bill ackman, david einhorn. their funds are down more than 40% this year.re are others who have done very well. exactly. were there strategies that just did not work, and should they be taking january to december is any kind of timeline at all? is that even relevant? : it is relevant for investors because they pay fees based on the performance of the too, and for the managers, a get paid and if they have lost money, they don't. -- they get paid and if they have lost money, they don't. cory: that crucial difference is a norm is for a fund that depends on money to keep their staff and managers incentivized to get lower salaries and get that big payout over the year. that is true. that is why some of these smaller funds have decided to close down this year. there are a number of more funds opening. managers are hoping they can be the ones that make money. vonnie: tell us the strategies that work. long-shortyes, some equity strategies did very well because there was divergent in the markets and people were able to bet against stocks that were doing poorly. many

. >> and the other main human being on that side is bill ackman.laughter] >> between the two of them, you have two different guys. one of them wants to stir the pot. >> i was a risk arbitrage administrator and what we would be doing right now is making a map of every single market and breaking it down onto a local level and trying to do an analysis of what the chances are that this would get approved. it sounds like there is a good chance it would not. there is skepticism in the canadian press. i'm curious to know, what is the endgame? if he knows there is a good chance that it may not be allowed to proceed, what has he accomplished? he and bill ackman have made a big splash with this. >> they have proposed a unique vehicle to house this. typically,ing that when dealing with regulatory risk, you say, we are offering you this and here is a big break if it doesn't go through. instead, they have offered to put a combined company in a voting trough and have hundred harrison run norfolk southern. what bill ackman is saying, by him running the recommend

matt: according to bill ackman. what a great title.to be the greatest railroader of all-time. alix: greatest cargo. --car guy. matt: such a manly title, although the woman could be the greatest railroader. scarlet: canada has got beef with the u.s. beef industry. the countries that to impose retaliatory taxes against beef imports on a trade battle on meat labeling rules. alix: this comes after the organization ruled against canada and mexico. we are joined by pamela ritchie, bloomberg tv canada anchor come in toronto. what were these issues to begin with? pamela: back earlier this year, alix, canada as well as mexico applied to the wto, the dispute we are not happy about the fact that everything that comes from canada, beef and pork, is labeled with country of origin labels. it essentially means it is not made in america, which is true and there is nothing wrong with that. but it puts producers at a disadvantage, going to the wto.. grocery distribution companies, just don't buy canadian meat because it doesn't sell with these labels on

bill ackman may be ready for the ball to drop on 2016. he had a rough 12 months he disclosed on wednesday that the flag ship hedge fund is down 19.7%. that would make 2015 the worst year for the firm. that's even worse than in 2008 during the financial crisis. his profits have been eaten away by a bad bet which is down 28% this year. most edge funds are feeling pain. the average loss is about 4% so far in 2015. still to come on the program, has the era of banker bashing finally come to an end? at least as far as the u.k. is concerned. the financial regulator here has made a call on new probes on bankers that may indicate things are changing. we'll have more on that when we come back. stay with us. >>> let's take a look at the headlines. u.s. futures pointing higher as the s&p 500 hopes to stay in the black for the year. puerto rico defaults on a small portion of its debt due january 4th but will pay its most important obligations and uber is celebrating it's 1 billionth ride since the company launched in 2009. weather wise it's been a cha

bill ackman is on that call. it is expected to go on conceivably for hours. they will take every question they get until the last question is asked, i'm told. i'll share with you some comments already coming from the conference call itself. first of the new offer, they lowered the cash portion of the offer and increased the amount of shares that you would get as an nsc shareholder. the new offer is 32.86 shares and 4.51 shares of the new company that would be created. 47% of said new company would be held by company nsc shareholders, as you look at bill ackman there to my left. why not? keep him up. it would be put in a voting trust. meaning that you would get your 32.86 and your shares as soon as may of next year, while they then awaited all of the approvals necessary for the deal to actually be allowed to be cones mated. you as a norfolk southern shareholder would get the consideration, and put in an actual trust, the trustee, not board of dreshgirectors, truste ceo. it gets complex. norfolk southern making the same point it made when it was talking about a

i think what happens is that this had been a major source of pain for the hedge funds, bill ackman, andource of pain is alleviated, that brings buyers out. >> 52-week high, $263 to put it in perspective. >> again, you had a thing that was an eyesore, and we were looking at ulta for a while. stocks are concentrated high-growth stock, using ulta as a metaphor. high growth is back. the names shorted are back. people want to own stocks again whether it's a lumber liquidators. >> i was just going to mention that. >> whitney tilson coming on saying that stock is done. and all these takeovers which have been greeted poorly. suddenly money coming into those. it's almost as if, all right, we've been short, we've been short. maybe we have to cover ahead of the fed. >> tilson in that blog post says leads me to believe senior management of lumber wasn't aware that the company was selling chinese made laminate that had high levels of for m l formaldehyde. >> a lot of hedge fund gifts out there. >> a lot of hedge funds running scared out there. which is one reason we're seen the reception to deals be

. >> skeptical of bill ackman. >> absolutely. >> it's the bow tie. >> what is your take on the story?> studliness. i think it got close. this is the next leg potential levels we saw a month ago. to david's point, the headline risk is still too great in this name. >> as we are just hours from the new year, restaurants in times square pumping up the prices. consumers are biting. we'll hear from the new york ceo of appleby's later this hour. while waiting for the new year in new york to kick off, check out istanbul, turkey, which is about to celebrate the moment much more "fast money" still ahead. >>> welcome back to "fast money." we have a prime view of the massive crowds getting ready for the ball to drop here in times square. several well-known restaurant chains are taking advantage with inclusive evening packages ranging from $375 to $850, but scalpers have bumped prices to over $1,000 a seat. here is appleby's ceo. how much does it cost to spend new year's eve at apple by's? >> $375 a person. >> how does that compare to years past? has the price gone up? >> they have. last year we w

. >> bill ackman down 16% through last week. they are huge numbers. deirdre: they're huge numbers indeed. they had a rougher holiday season. who are the managers who either didn't have money in the calls that a lot of people, did or just saw things from a completely different, more profitable perspective? >> i think a really interesting one is lee ainsley who runs 10 billion dollars of maverick capital. he was worried there would be a rush for the exits that everyone wants to sell the popular positions, he switched out and started shorting apple component makers, chinese stocks, china hits huge trouble and he's up 16%. deirdre: he made a contrarian call which is what they get paid to do, think differently than anybody else, find the opportunities where if they tau talk about them, people say you're crazy and make money. there are a couple of ones, radialio continues to churn out cash. >> the s&p is basically flat. the problem is these managers need to be going long and short. they should be making money on both ends. it doesn't fly. deirdre: two other

. >> november was another tough month for bill ackman. hedge fund lost around 2% and was down 17% through november. but they already paired those losses to 15% year to date. that's thanks to an almost 10% rise in shares of valeant on tuesday. the drug maker is one of the largest holdings. >> meantime, citigroup is reportedly planning to keep the bonus pool for its bankers and traders unchanged from last year. they told senior managers of the decision but it could change depending on how the market performs this month. jp morgan also plans to keep it's bonus pool the same but other banks including goldman sacks announced plans to cut bonuses by up to 16%. it seems in this case unchanged is the new up for bonuses. >> i think you're right. you're absolutely right there. now when it comes to chase lending, jp morgan is jumping into the online lending business teaming one the specialist lender on deck capital. under a private program started back in january they'll offer loans to its roughly 4 million small business customers. the company prom

i put number four as bill ackman for obvious reasons. hedge funds and his fund.t year at this time he was on the cover of every magazine. now down 30%, bad bets, like a lot of hedge funds not doing well, and david barse who ran third avenue, closed doors, junk bonds are imploding, those are the losers. we'll have the story on fbn.com. liz: you'll get a lot of reaction. thank you, charlie gasparino. up next, back to the floor of the new york stock exchange as the trading day comes to a close. our guests are going to tell us why the dow 18,000 call missed the mark this year. "countdown" coming right back. don't go away. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? . liz: let's go to the new york stock exchange. we've got ashley webster dow

i would love if bill ackman take a stake in that. that would be fantastic tv. i would watch it all day long. and i look at his picks. and i wonder if brett, his son, has to do with apple and netflix and the big winners that tend -- they are tech, they are not in the areas that carl has been very vocal in. so i think it is interesting to look at it that way. >> he is also not as involved in -- biotech had been a winning vehicle for him in years past. he lost a lieutenant in his fund a couple of years back and he was a specialist and sat on the biotech boards he took stake in. and that went away. >> and backed off of that. and you bring up apple and netflix, he got them initially but talking apple up $200 plus a share for a long period of time. netflix he sold way too early. i think he sold when the stock was in the 60s. i could be wrong. but i look at his veems and i know -- investments and i know he has had a short in high yield. and legging into the equities at the lower valuation, i agree with tim's point about it but structurally defunct. the freeport of the

bill: of course they don't and if you are -- if you have a year like bill ackman, two and 20 does not last five years, normalized against the s&p. it is not pretty at all. i've got macro here in magenta, i have activists in light blue. funds don't even come close, they are barely breaking even. stephanie: there is the answer, be the best. -- no one says the hedge fund model across the board works. they were higher than two and 20. you: why be the best when can just buy the index fund and double your money? sol: this year, not so much, it goes to show is hard to pick, even the best, -- you are a if long-term investment -- investor, investing with guys like bill ackman or when you could, it may hold hackable lot of sense -- since [indiscernible] matt: how confident are you that just -- that you just pick the best hedge fund manager or that you put your money in a vanguard fund? which one will people be more confident of? stephanie: it is endowment. there are people in endowment and pension funds, it is their job to take the best hedge funds out there. maybe their jobs have gotten harder

bill ackman as you mentioned it is trouble.ng about guys who took chances on specific stocks and piled a whole lot of money in them. >> correct. the federal reserve meeting what is your advice on how the quarter comes to a close. >> we think structured credit. colatealizeed loan obligations. liz: those sound scary to those watching. >> if you believe the housing market is doing relatively well. commercial real estate market does relatively well unless we have recession. you believe most of the pain in high yield and credit is caused by oil sector, all of those options should perform well with good cash flow and some price appreciation potential as long as u.s. economy avoids recession. liz: november jobs report comes out friday. jobs report always tends to gyrate markets do you invest around a labor report or is that a bad, bad idea? >> typically this part of the year is strong. we don't see why this year would be different. you mentioned comments from the fed recently. we think that is behind the rally today. markets love the

among the top corporate stories, bill ackman's out with the final report of the year. down 19.7% year to date as of tuesday. >>> one million people expected just a few blocks from this studio tonight to ring in the new year. i think it's 75-inch screen at home near a refrigerator and a bathroom, doesn't that sound, you know, within walking distance? >> warm and cozy. >> watch, bathroom. >> and not a million people. >> here talking security and hopefully new york does know what is going on. the former commissioner of the nypd, in charge of the new york police on september 11th, and we probably, out of all the countries around the world and cities, new york, if anyone, in any place, can make it safe, it's here. >> it's better prepared than anywhere in the world. look, we have the most resources. we have the best training. we've been through these types of things in the past. the -- you know, and you know what? i keep hearing numbers. 6,000 cops today in and around times square. when we have the detail back in 2000 and 2001 when i was a police commissioner, that detail wa

then bill ackman would call herbalife a ponzi scheme.tock went up 44% since he first said that. wandorts have some magic over the market i would like to borrow that for a day. it is not that easy. the vilification i do not think is fair. not only are they canaries in the coal mine but they are the garbage men of the market taking out the litter and that trash. anna: most recently, quite a high profile of business in france. casinos. happy and iss not trying to defend themselves and take action against him. if you're going to make these public statements about a company, you have to make sure you are right. the casino share price happen just this week. he does not have a magic wand. the market could have ignored him. had some duds in the past. he is usually very good and knows what he is talking about and that is what investors were responding to. anna: a lot depends on the credibility of the voice. thanks for joining us. lena, let us talk about the post fed rate hike that we live in. the first type. you call this a triumph of policy comm

first of all, bill ackman saying this is a railroad with incredibly low efficiency, attacking at thatd that is the way they looked at it and what they did was have a proxy battle, install a new board, an lastter harrison in year when he was talking about checkinghey were just it out to see whether that would work, it was decided against that. haveso said that it would to be a friendly situation, so this is a bit of a playbook. we have any idea how long they have to make a deal? is there any kind of time crunch? guest: the way that it is structured is this is something -- the proposal is you put cp rail into a voting trust and tot frees up hunter harrison become ceo of norfolk southern as things work through the regulators and they have to prove this is good for competition and they have all kinds of quit pro-quote is that they have to tick off to get the deal through on the regulatory side. thank you so much. coming up next, it's shaping up to be a bad year for high-yield credit. we have some charts to break it down for you. ♪ alix: welcome back to bloomberg markets. asrlet: 20 15 is

i asked bill ackman, hedge fund billionaire, tighttan, fantasti greatest ever since da vinci.mae was 2.40. went to 2.50. today 1.70. fannie mae. if you owned fannie mae or bought it that day after it spiked delivering alpha, that's an example of which what hedge funds did. using as a metaphor. >> another is macy's. spiked on the day that we had jeff smith on. >> it's turned into gimbel's. >> the stock is down more than half, i think, since that day. >> there's a split. >> without the actual split. >> do they get to the point where the underlying value of the real estate exceeds the market cap of the business? that building in herald square alone 3 billion, $4 billion. are they going to sell that now? >> no. can't even do it, well, you can do it but you don't get the tax break. >>> asked david jaffey how mac macy's is doing, just as bad as everybody else. not worse than everybody else, but just as bad. i will go there this weekend and try to help their sales. >> you will? >> yes. >> what you are in the market for? >> the boots. >> the boots. >> she just sent me the size, 8 1/2.

bill ackman has been a big defender. there have been many critics of the company as well.well. they have been shorting the stock or looking at other drug companies that are somewhat similar. let's first of all add the price and the short interest ratio here. the price, which we just saw. the ratio has been declining to some extent. as the stock has been going gon, we have seen shares down because people have given up on their shorts and cashed out in some cases as the stock continued to go down. on their way to look at it is the absolute level of short interest which has continued to go up. shares sold short in the company. are about 4% of the shares sold short, not an incredibly high ratio. to give you an idea of some sentiment surrounding the stock ,fter the shares have gone down we will continue to monitor the situation and bring you updates. the losers in 2016 may be winners. hottest jobs on wall street 2016 is coming up next. ♪ a job on wall street is not the ticket to riches. it used to be. gone,ly are those traders the machines are taking over. everything from algor

. >>> bill ackman says it is cutting its stake in valeant pharmaceuticals, the reason, tax purposes. reducing its stake from 9.9 to 8.5% in valeant, shares down just about .6% after hours. back over to you. >> tax losses for taxable investors, that's what he says in the filing. >> and there have been losses, significant losses. he is down -- his fund is down 20%. >> he sold high cost basis valeant shares which means he paid more for them. >> another one we've been following that fire' downtown dubai dress hotel in downtown dubai. sue herrera has the latest details. >> the latest we are hearing is that the fire which ungufld this 63-story hotel is now under control. earlier today is in a matter of minutes a massive blaze raced up the side of the address hotel in downtown dubai. billowing smoke can be seen for miles. an eyewitness telling nbc news she heard a loud explosion and that the air smelled like burning plastic. the fern know reportedly began along the outside of the building at the 20th floor but never spread inside. four fire squads responded to help contain that blaze. local

because of leadership and what you and ashley referenced, leadership and tj maxx, the ironic winner, bill ackman kerry -- jc penney a few years ago. >> "star wars" is going to save disney despite espn. >> that's going to hurt, but the merchandising schedule because of lucas films, "star wars," the theme parts. >> when someone does a pure play like hasbro, disney stock was down in part because wall street news. do you try to be more finite with this, to ashley's points, disney is a lot of moving parts and some are going in the wrong direction. >> and you might want to do disney long and hasbro long. and like ethan allen, housing looks like it's coming on now. do you see a housing boom and if so, do you think that ethan allen will be a winner? >> on-line, but know the on land. bassett furniture will be okay, bassett better. home depot the clear winner, clear pure play. >> retail in and of itself. on-line and brick and mortar. 2016 better than 2015 overall? >> 2016 better. amazon's going to be the clear winner. a number of losers. some of them just by incorporation issues, so, dollar tree buying fa

bill ackman was in from high point. to knock don't have the ball out of the park. do ok. things are moving in the right direction. they are positive. stephanie: there is still a lot of pain. joe: all of the e-commerce players that were doing very well, when you think about the e-commerce business growing at 15%, it's rising at 15%. that's a big deal. the other 85% is probably flat. when you add that together, you've got a positive. that is making the season. some people are going to be up and some people are going to be down. some people say the weather hit us really bad. some will say we had a great holiday season. david: amazon is having a phenomenal real -- year. stephanie: do i look at labels? do i say perfect, keep suffering. column yesterday. they have not made an acquisition. this is the longest they ever gone without making an acquisition. some companies are just right for the taking. what is lululemon. there is a bite sized company with a lot of rand equity that gets hammered in the past couple of years. a bunch of private equity companies have brought up

bill ackman has to on that. all fair in love and war. what is number two?enan bankers accused of stealing $400,000 from an active bank accounts in which eight account holders were dead. withwo men were charged crimes including grand larceny. a third was arraigned and a fourth person remains at large. aam sure -- there have been series of reports about jpmorgan around the country, various lower-level employees actually not trading cut -- not treating clients very well. >> you are right we are still talking about a number you can count on one hand, a huge bank, but if you are jpmorgan, it is not good for you. >> yes. i just look at this story and think the power of human invention knows no moral bounds. i shake i had when i read it. >> i do not understand how he thought he would get away with it. an electronic record. the person is dead. the state is closing it down. they usually have cameras. i do not understand how they thought they would get away with it. >> were two reasons. one is he would be disgusted. >> as any rank would be. furthermore, he is trying

hunter harrison and major investor bill ackman will both take part in that. in other deal news, newel newell rubbermaid. it just rolls off the tongue. consumer products giant jarden and it will be newel newell rubbermaid, jarden at that point. >> nrj? >> yeah. >> they have a lot of make up. >> for garbage cans. >> no, one of my favorite data points was the beauty index. >> they sell make up. >> they have a grab bag of stuff. >> tupperware sells make up t. brand confusion. >> i could see that. >> so you get it. >> you live in the world of make up. >> no longer print at all. >> you live in the world of make up. >> you don't write for us. >> i do but i don't consider it print. >> it's the same online and the physic physical. >> i was confused because we said that andrew and becky are out and mike santoli were out. i thought you were not the guest host but an actual host because if you're an actual host you have to take the jacket off. >> i was wondering about that. >> and read teleprompter. but you're guest hosting at this point. leave the jacket on then. it loo

are going to get so much attention from investors, this could cause potential activists, maybe bill ackman, to knock on the door. david: it is not a good day for them but it is not a surprise. they were getting no love whatsoever. but i wonder if this rejection opens the door for him to go forward with the shareholders and the board? may note: carl icahn have even been thinking about norfolk southern, but now hunter has put them in focus. we are going to follow this all morning long. we will reach out to hunter -- if you are awake yet, we would love to have you. david: we want to start with julie hyman, who will be breaking the jobs news for us in about an hour and 25 minutes. set the stage for us in washington. julie: 200,000 jobs is the headline number we are looking for, the addition last month, 5.0% is the unemployment rate we're looking at. average hourly earnings, .2 of 1%. month, it would have to be darned terrible for the fed to not raise rates at its meeting. that is something we are hearing from a number of different economist and strategists, so the bar is relatively low. atordi

when you say they do what nay know, so if you're bill ackman or david heinhorn, what do you do after year of 20% down? >> we know what they are doing, right? not apologizing, doubling down on stuff like the valeant long position, but said to you and others, he's not doing a billion dollar short again. it was not -- i forget the quote, but not the most fun way to make money to say the least, so i think those kind of risky things, david's another example, i was alluding to them there, buying consul energy, the coal company in the second or third quarter when it was cheap, but it's down since then, a big regret of the year, so he talked about how, in his mind, traditional market reactions to traditional fundamental analysis have not panned out in 2015. >> oh, it's the market's fault. >> exactly. >> do you think money leaves the big names, which is to say, do any investors say, looking it's great he was up 40%, but i can't take volatility of up 40, down 20. do you think the money stays? i wonder about other investors. >> broadly, i don't know. we saw in the third quarter overall assets d

. >> how would your relationship with bill ackman change over this period?-mails reported in the "wall street journal," credibility issues with you. >> he's a very direct perp. obviously, when we were working together on the situation, we interacted quite a bit. i'd say our relationship's still cordial. >> we could ask questions all day. >> thank you. >> lopez, they get along, the jublia thing? >> less than seven figures. >> okay. >> he's looking for a deal. >> don't leave yet, you have your microphone on. >> can we do that? >> probably not. >> darn it. anyway, when we return -- oh -- when we return, can junk bond -- can they get any junkier? concerns over liquidity with investor, and feared that's what feeding the fear in the trading session, a fear down sooids asi coming? futures are up 89 again, and 50 points of 3m. we'll be right back. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." our next guest made a big bet in 2006 that led to huge gains for his fund and featured in "the big short", and now soon to be a movie, already a movie. joining us now with thoughts, though

this might be one of the good deals that happened for bill ackman that went long on this company. a number of his other investments. one that's looking up. we should also tell you we're days away from the fed announcing whether it will be raising interest rates for first time in almost a decade. investors are dealing with a lot of uncertainty. >> reporter: the idea we can go through every single concern and issue in the marketplace we can't. we'll boil it down to a few of the big talkers, big issues that are now facing investors and, of course, what the fed is staring down at as it looks towards a policy decision that could like you said boost interest rates for the first time in close to a decade. as we talk about the crude oil picture, what we saw early this morning crude oil dipped below $35 for the first time since 2009. as we talk about commodities overall and declining prices will that factor in at least in some way shape or form to what fed will be thinking about during its fed interest rates deliberation. wti crude down we're to date. also what will happen here you talk ab

of course, canadian pacific, the railroad company that bill ackman installed the ceo, big n investorthe program before, norfolk southern said a transaction, quote, facing substantial regulatory risks and uncertainty highly unlikely to be overcome. the company said that norfolk southern's board concluded the indication of interest is grossly inadequate, and thus far, we have not seen what the price tag would have been that was grossly inadequate. we'll look for that and that the company expects to cheapen operational ratio below seventy with additional improvement in five years. we'll continue to watch what the company is saying, and, of course, this raises the prospect of whether canadian pacific comes back with a higher bid here, and they have to be had in the space. >> i read this, the price was not high enough, and, boy, pay us a fee because of the uncertainties of the regulatory issue, right? i mean, this is just part of the dance. >> this is the beginning of the dance. >> yes. >> exactly. >> when we have them on, they are -- they are -- they talked about -- not surprising. >> th

and commodities a7hall-of-fame legends performed poorly - warren buffet (berkshire hathaway) , bill ackman (pershing square capital) worst fund year since 2004, and similar negatives from david einhorn and carlos slima7historic year, when all asset classes performed poorly poorlywhat's in store for 2016?