what data is new york fed president bill dudley looking at? >> i think they're looking at the same data we're looking at but the fed does not want to fuel the pessimism that is out there. i think they want to assess the situation when they get together later this month for the next fomc meeting. so the fed will react to the data. i think it's difficult to see the four rate hikes they penc pencilled in this year. the one rate hike only in september or october, that's probably not enough. so i think we'll be somewhere in between. i think the fed can squeeze in two to three rate hikes this year, but clearly we have to see an easing of financial conditions or put differently some rebound in the markets, which i think we will get. >> guys, thank you both for your analysis. have a great weekend. >> let's get some more details now on the continued selloff in asia. shenzhen down 22% thus far this year. let's bring in susan li who joins us live from hong kong. susan? >> david, that's right. we saw the net selling continuing this week. $1.3 billion in f

yet, new york fed president bill dudley is sticking to his 2016 forecast. steve liesman, who has come to the table to have a conversation with us. what's going on? >> there was an opportunity. >> surprising, right? you were surprise snd. >> there was an opportunity for bill dudley to calm things down a little bit, and he did not take it. i wonder if there's a message in that, which is maybe the fed is making a point of not trying to put some sort of floor under what's happening here and saying, you know, from bruce springsteen "go straight into the night and then, boy, you're on your own." this might be the message from the fed to the markets. bill could have come forward and said i see what is going on in the market. i hear the message of what's happening here, and it's cause meg to rethink. vemp the way bullard did yesterday, but dudley who is one of the more doves didn't do that today. the other part of what's happening here, look, markets where going to find their own evening lib yum on their own, and where they're trading against oil or with oil on the

bill dudley who runs the new york fed spoke today and did not indicate that the federal reserve would back off their four times interest rate-tightening track that we expect for this year. i find that hard to believe that we will see any kind of rate tightening a week after and the fed was that they were going to be a lot more aggressive than they were actually at the end of the day. so i think that as you go through 2016, i would be very surprised if the federal reserve raise rates more than two times. so they are going to be talking about this, but remember, they don't preannounce what they're going to do and love to raise rates four times, but if conditions change, they will alter their strategy. liz: they don't want it on their legacy head do, they, keith, that they caused a massive problem. by the way, dow is back down about 397 points. for a second there we were down 400. keith, they don't want it on their heads by tightening a teeny quarter of a percentage point in december, they triggered that, is that a stretch? >> the catalyst is the fed's forecast being as wrong as it's alw

>> new york fed president bill dudley spoke today. he did not make comments about the market.e did not suggest that this market volatility had made him change his forecast for federal reserve rate hikes. i think mohamed may be exactly right that there's a new dawn here, a new era where the fed is disconnecting itself a bit from the markets and saying you know what, we have a mission to do, which is to normalize rates. and that is perhaps somewhat disconnected from where the market's going to go here. although not disconnected from the economy. if we get really bad economic data, the fed will either not raise or reverse course but not from the market. >> steve, thanks very much. thanks for staying around tonight. and still ahead, the rare move walmart is making to take on the competition. but first, a look at the 30 dow components and how they did today. you can see a lot of red. ♪ >>> walmart is closing hundreds of stores. the world's largest retailer and largest private employer has decided to shut hundreds of locations as it tries to compete in an ever challenging retail env

david: we talked about the size of the fed us balance sheet and fromard from bill dudley the new york fed. no timeout -- note sign this is going to be turning anytime soon. see the fed't winding back they balance sheet until we get to 1% on the fed funds rate. if they are pulling back on those hikes this year, that is a discussion we will be having next year at this time. david: thank you very much. coming up in the next 20 minutes of bloomberg market, making sense of the break that -- breakneck volatility in the market this year. and don't miss an exclusive andrview with george soros his view on the world economy in the recent market turmoil. ♪ david: welcome back to bloomberg markets. time now for the bloomberg business flash. railway iscific going to eliminate 1000 jobs and/spending by $279 million this year. they are adjusting to lower shipping volume and falling commodity prices. most cuts will result from attrition and will kick in midyear. for theas an order smallest jetliners. the new boeing 737 700 planes will enter service in mid-2017 as united cuts its use of cramped region

then today, bill dudley, another very important federal reserve official, said the opposite. he seemed unperturbed and seemed continue to tighten because things are so good, so good with hiring. it was the exact opposite, at least in my book. and it really contributed to today's negative action. what one giveth, the other taketh away, in a constant reminder that we're fighting the fed never since the first tightening, and it is the enemy, not the friend, of the bull in your portfolio. yesterday the chinese communist party walked their stock market to close into bear territory. today it fell back and the party seemed helpless to stop it. as i said earlier in the week, china could have to repeal its entire move up from much lower levels. and a 30% decline cannot be ruled out. that's an awful lot of points we'll be reacting negatively unlike the good old days of the hardliners, you can't trust these guys to shoot straight. third, oil is the most important indicator of the market's next move. and it now scenes ineluctable that barring a hot war in the middle east that takes oil o

if fischer were to come on air and or bill dudley came on and said i gave a speech last friday and ihould have agreed with james bullard -- let me go there. >> you two have a history. >> bullard's speech on thursday was brilliant. he said if oil goes to 20, the inflation expectations have to be reduced. also the consumer is not spending like the consumer was in mid 2015. bullard's comments were so considered and important and totally overlooked by the pollyanna that was dudley. the dudley i knew from goldman is no pollyanna. that speech read like it was fresh the day it was canned, which is the first day of december. he has to come back and change his campbell soup view, or velveeta view, which is you can do anything, it won't change and still taste good. that speech was devastating. >> down to 50% chance of a june meeting. and the market pricing in one hike for the whole year, not four. >> i think the important thing is to try to get liquidity in the system. that is so contrary to what they were saying. but i think bullard's speech was about oil going to 20, the impact, which is a n

right now, despite recent protestations from bill dudley, i find it hard to believe that the fed will follow through with the plan. the fact that the rest of the world seems to be slowing and if the fed decides to put the tightening spree on hold, where does that leave the banks? considering first horizon, and they have more than 200 locations across the south, along with a wealth management business that's booming and fixed cap tap market offerings, they had a miss off the 21 point basis. and they have some nice loan growth, 5% interest. but the banks earnings did get hit by a noninterest expense. can they get much lift without more help from the fed? let's go to bryan jordan to find out more about where the company welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks for having me back. >> all right, it's driving me crazy. you had a great quarter. you have loan growth. you have no charge-offs to speak of. you're down in texas but you missed that any of the oil problem. why is your stock trading as if all that matters is what the fed is going to do? >> yeah, i think, you know, you have seen the wh

. >> let me take you back to one of the key dynamics in today's trade that is bill dudley, the head of the new york fed, has chose tony make the speech and has somedayed decided not to give the market anything in the wake of stanley fisher saying there will be four rate rises this year. he silenced too many people. you said just now that you feel they made a mistake, and you feel that they'll undo that. isn't the lesson that the world has changed and when, for example, in the fall janet yellin said i'm not raising rates because i'm worried about china, the market actually fell. if they came back and reversed the rate rise, wouldn't that send panic through global markets? >> well, i don't know that it would calm everything down, but step away from the market for a minute, even though it's our livelihood. they've got to worry about what happens with the economy, and they can't really allow us to slip into another recession because to some degree their gun is empty already. i think they might in desperation cut back and go back to zero in hopes of saving the economy from slipping into rec

bill dudley giving a speech now in new jersey saying future rate hikes depend on the data.n december further rate hikes were expected in 2016. he doesn't tell us how much he th

tim bullard at bill dudley brought this up over the last couple of days.-- you can see they have moved along in a range for quite some time, moved up a little bit after the fed raised interest rates -- the green circle -- and then look at look at howthen they have collapsed. if people think that prices are going to continue to go down, that will put downward pressure on prices and inflation will not move up. this is a real concern. inflation expectations are becoming unmoored. it is what people think in five years' time, right? michael: people think inflation is going to be down 1.5% at best. leads to the question of, where do prices go? influence cpi because of the way it is calculated. rent prices have been going up but the cpi has been going down. what i was seeing at as a national trend? or can we even say there is a national trend? spencer: as people say in the industry, there is no sixth thing as a real estate forecast. that is like having a national weather forecast. is increasingow -- is -- it is regionalized purity in manhattan, home values are in

the other number is what bill dudley is looking at and he is looking at consumer expectations.ay higher than it should be. what is important is they have slipped. it is at the bottom of expand for the last two decades. scarlet: why do we care about expectations? expectationsuse are a leading indicator of what is going to happen. comprised of what we think inflation is going to be. alix: inflation is oil. brendan: inflation is oil but a we arebankers are saying not worried about it. strip out oil and we are almost to where we should be. but they are beginning to notice is there are some aspects that may not just be oil. if the price goes down, that feeds into other articles and once other articles are affected, you are looking at expectations. we may be lower for longer because of the way people think about it. alix: good stuff. scarlet: coming up, more from the former greek prime minister. ♪ alix: welcome back to bloomberg markets. one year ago today, alexis tsipras took power, promising and into austerity measures in greece, a move it ultimately had to reverse. we spoke with t

the last go before the chair is the vice chair of the committee, which is bill dudley from the federalew york. everybody gives their view on the economy. that's usually the first day's discussion. they might tip their hand as to where they think policy should be, the second day's discussion. and usually it focuses on one of the three options that have been laid out or maybe there are a couple other sub options in the package of options. it's all done on paper. you sit at the table by yourself with major staff from washington, d.c. who provide you plus the new york desk with a briefing on what's going on. you've already been briefed by your own staff. you sit at that table alone and provide your opinions. nobody else can speak to you, speak with you during that session. once you have the two go-arounds summarizing policy and the second day summarizing your policy preferences, after some discussion by the staff of what's happening in the markets and with financial stability, what's going on in the global economy, what's going on in the domestic economy, you then center around a policy op

bill dudley will be speaking today, and expect it to be dovish.take away. >> and fox rocks, great job last night. maria: fox rocks, i like it, raising the roof with fox. >> that's not bad. >> maria, it's trump and the rest of the field right now. everybody is chasing this guy. for six months they've been saying he's going away. ladies and gentlemen, this man is not going away he's an amazing retail politician. and number three, republicans if they're going to beat hillary talked so much about that last night they have to find a message that doesn't just appeal to conservatives, but to latinos and asians and other groups and i worry that if they sound anti-immigration and anti-trade, that's not a great message for the party. maria: art laffer. >> i was going to say what steve said during the break, 100 points on the dow, we're buyers. maria: is that what you do, anthony? and when does this market find a bottom? what's the metric for you? >> not yet. we're in a cautious stance in skybridge, but soon. maria: soon you think? >> a republican president,

. >> bill dudley of the new york fed shrugged off the volatility and seemed to suggest that the fed is still on track with interest rates. should they be? >> look, i think what the fed is doing is the right thing and williams said something similar, we're not paying attention to day to day swings in the market. think that's the right move right now. but what i would say is this, it's true that the fed base beingally wants to brace the market if the fed wants to sell the idea of a rate hike to the market. they are running out of time to get four hikes in and thought they were going to go in march and june. march is a month and a half away. a lot of heavy lifting between now and then. we're four for now. we'll sort of see. i know people will be falling all over themselves to look at the data. there's one key event in the middle of the next month, when yellen -- >> testimony to congress. that's going to be a significant event. depending what comes out of that, we'll decide what we're going to do. >> good to see you. back to sima keeping her busy this hour, how u.s. listed chinese stocks a