new york fed president bill dudley saying he sees downside risk to the u.s. economy that may keep the central bank's interest rate hike on hold for longer than he and his colleagues at the fed had earlier signaled. dudley was seeking in china. about expects the u.s. economy to grow 2% this year, he added on balance i am somewhat less confident than i was before. the fed raised interest rates in december for the first time in almost a decade. with that, let's get caught up in the global market action overnight. in asia, back-and-forth action. shanghai composite up 1.7% and the hang seng up 1.5%. kospi on the other hand finished down slightly. lauren: early trading up 31 points or half of 1%. ditto percentage terms for the cac and the dax in germany. the winner is up 1.5%. nicole: u.s. stock market futures up 106 for that doubt teachers. s&p up while the nasdaq up 31. trip through oil prices rose in february for the first time in four months in may were up again. thirty-four dollars at the quarter, pulled higher by $7. let's check out of the u.s. dollar is trad

thursday, bill dudley will speak and on friday we'll hear from cleveland's loretta mester. >>> they speak too much but does it only cause confusion opinion bill is the chief market strategist. i've known you for years. sorry, i botched your name. good to see you. >> that's okay. good to see you. >> i think you would agree maybe the central bankers are speaking too much. >> yeah, it's like the pendulum has totally swung here. i know tyler and you remember the days back in '70, '80, early '90s when sometimes you didn't know for days whether the fed has eased or tightened. now we have gone, the pendulum swung the other way and seem like you can't shut the people up. the question is how do you deal with that. we advise really just try focus on the market. that gives you a much better sense of what's going to happen down the road. for instance, if you look at the front end of the u.s. yield curve, treasury bills, they never priced in all these tig tightens that fed was talking about. they priced in one or two tightens. in you focus on the market, i think you can block out a lot of noise and yo

bill dudley hinted at this in his speech the other day china. the domestic economy is really quite ok. the softer global environment, how does that impact here at home? what degree of risk management do we need? i think the question that a lot of people have right now, how does this impact of this data depend on the set? if the fed is truly dependent on the data, everything looks good, we would assume that maybe we are getting another rate hike? dan: well, we will know when they publish the sep one week after next. when they publish it in december it projected for rate increases in 2016. few people now think that will happen, but they are not walking away from the gradual path. we might see something like to penciled in. possibly three. but you will not see them pencil in four or negative rates. it's interesting, they move depending on those data points. again, if we cast our minds back to january, the market was effectively pricing out any rate increase. we have seen some stronger data from the labor market on the consumer side as some indicati

and new york ped president bill dudley will be speaking a little bit later this week. he's considered part of the core. if you're going to choose who to listen to, this week is more important than last week. >> at least points to the fact that the u.s. economy must be strong enough for some people to suggest it's a possibility. >> it's like a wall street economy. they don't agree. investors don't agree. european markets are closed, as we mentioned today, celebrating easter monday. but there was trading overnight. let's get you caught up. aquito fujita joins us live from singapore. >> we're seeing a lighter dave trading with australia and hong kong all closed for the extended holiday. the big winner, the nikkei of japan. 12 about that 17,000 mark. exporters are getting a big lift as the yen weakens against the dollar. the yen settling in well above that key 1.10 marker. expect a slew of economic data out this week with employment and retail production. but they're keeping a close watch on that survey later in the week. a reuters poll showing that confidence likely to di

bill dudley, in the inner circle, will be speaking out on thursday. those are the folks who matter when it comes to determining fed policy. >> it will be nice to see more philosophically about the dollar. dudley a few years ago said the fed has a special responsibility to pay attention to the fact that 60% of the world's financial system runs on the dollar. like it or not, those moves can impact monetary things at home. >> in asia they were talking about a new-found focus on the federal reserve. here's what was said about the u.s. and what is going on in the international economy. >> we understand that we're in a global economy a global financial system. what happens in brazil or china, in southeast asia or south america has a huge impact on the u.s. economy in terms of employment and inflation goals. we have to take that into account. we have to understand what's happening around the world, how it impacts the u.s. economy. we also need to be cognizant of the fact when the fed acts t does affect the global economy. understand those feedback loops and

new york fed president bill dudley is sounding cautious about raising rates. and other commodity prices as well as tighter financial conditions could lead to slower growth and weaker inflation. also, dudley says the balance of risks might be starting to tilt slightly to the downside, but only slightly marking down his growth forecast. and that number is now a at 2%. u.s. treasuries secretary jack lew says commitments by china and other countries have reduced the risk of currency devaluations that could fuel turmoil in global markets. lew says beijing has given a clear single it won't engineer a major devaluation on the juan. and yahoo! says it might write down the value of tumblr, a year after the company spent more than $1 billion on that blogging service. >>> we showed you that the futures are indicated higher. take a look, wti, up as well. it's up about 2% today, after gaining 3% yesterday. latest number comes in at $34.46 a barrel. if you want to check out the treasury market, the ten-year note right now is yielding 1.749%. and the dollar looks like it's a

my former colleague bill dudley, if he cared about my opinion, i would tell him i would be careful aboutmessage of oil price volatility. when we look at brent volatility, 75% realize annualized in the month of the brewery. -- in the month of february. when you see that can volatility it is saying to be where there is a breakout coming in cpi. david: this is an area in which we cannot many existential debates about the role of central banks. when you look at the fed and what it can do to forestall or stop the volatility in oil prices, what could you do, as you see it? colin: the key question is confidence. let's go back to 1979. why do we think paul volcker is the greatest central banker in the world? he understood that slumps are inevitable. we are in a slump now, that is not in doubt. the important thing is to give a confidence from the central bank back to businesses and the consumer. a negative interest-rate policy does the opposite, and paradoxically, raising rates from even if it risks recession, would actually increase confidence. tracy: i think a lot of investors would disagree wi

benefiting from the dovish words and behavior of central bankers all over the world, including bill dudley james bullard. back away from the idea that it's urgent that we raise rates. lower rates go, the better gold does. it matters that interest rates in the eurozone and japan have gone negative are when that happens it makes more sense to keep your money in a hard asset like gold than in cash. meanwhile, we're seeing some serious financial stress in major economies like china. and money is fleeing those countries as we said at the top for safe havens. hence the article on the front page of the "journal." if you're a wealthy person living in an emerging market gold probably looks mighty attractive versus anything dominating your home currency. since gold is mostly traded in dallas dollars until reversal in the greenback is good news for the precious metal. it's not all gold prices. a lot of this run has to do with positives at the company itself. rand gold has a terrific track record of growing its production which is expected to increase by an additional 16% by 2017. plus they've got a p

far more important, we have a shockingly dovish speech from bill dudley. he's the new york fed president who caused a recent sell-off by denying anything had gotten weaker since the rate hike. he set off a firestorm including here with yous truly when he said it was all systems go with the rate hikes because everything is hunky-dory. last night he gave a speech in china, on balance i'm less confident than i was before end quote about the economy. part of this reflects my assessment that uncertainty to the outlook has increased and downside risks have crept up, unquote. then quote, at this moment i judge that the balance of risk to my growth and inflation outlooks may be starting to tilt to the downside. the recent tightening of financial markets could have a greater negative impact on the u.s. economy should this tightening prove persistent, end quote. all i can say is -- hallelujah. and throw in this. that was easy. i cannot stress enough how important this dudley speech was to the turn that you saw today. even though it happened when most of you were sle

. >> and bill dudley echoed that sentiment. >> steve liesman made a good point. going to raise in march, that would have been telegraphed already and bill dudley would not have said what he said already so close to an upcoming fed meeting that you have the market offsides. you think more globally, we have the rest of the world in recession. people argue whether or not this is within the fed's mandate to worry about it. the head winds, you look at the economists, the picture of chinese steel supplies, the surplus is greater than the combined production of the united states, germany and japan. deflation, both in commodities and in finance is still there. it is not gone. >> everything you just said is 100% factually correct. >> okay. >> but here's my concern. >> my wife never tells me that. >> you too? we also say this stuff as if we automatically assume higher rates are bad. we don't know that. raising rates and i get all your points, but if we just assume higher rates are bad, we had higher rates in the past and the economy has done just fine. how do we know that

bill dudley, the new york president will be speaking on thursday.hose are the ones you want to monitor because they matter. >> interestingly, it comes down now to the confusing fed speak we've had over the last couple of weeks as to how much weight they put on the situation. everyone sort of agreed the situation in the u.s. is pretty decent. the data has been okay. the situation internationally is pretty soft and it's how much weight do they want to put on the international situation. those that focus domestically, they're more hawkish and saying hike earlier. and the one with total volatility say let's push it back. >> and it opens the fed to criticism because the federal reserve has a dual mandate that is to focus on inflation, we'll see how the gauge is today. with, the fed gauge. and 34r0i789. 4.9% on the unemployment rate. it's come down lowest since the recession. so you could argue that the fed is meeting its mansd date, should be raidsing its interest rates. though with manufacturing on the brink of or in a recession, and the stronger dollar

new york fed president bill dudley is sounding cautious about raising rates in the near future. the drop in oil and other commodity prices, as well as tighter financial conditions, could lead to slow growth and weaker inflation. dudley says the balance of risks may be starting to tilt slightly to the downside, but he's only slightly marked down his growth forecast to about it 2%. >> more important commentary overnight. u.s. treasury secretary jack lew says commitments by china and other countries at the g-20 meetings this past weekend have reduced the risk of currency devaluations that could fuel turmoil in global markets. lew, who did speak with china's premier on monday, says beijing has given a clear signal here it won't engineer major devaluation of the yuan. he declined comment on china's move to lower reserve ratio requirements for banks yesterday. he says he got the word, it's okay, you don't have to freak out anymore about currency wars. >> right. let's get to some corporate news this morning. a legal victory for apple. a judge ruling late yesterday that the justice depa

new york fed president bill dudley, boston fed president rosengren and bullard. sales are expected to be hit by the strong dollar for tiffany. tourists spend less at the flagship store in new york city. so we'll be watching those tiffany earnings before the bell. >> indeed we will. it's been a big week for central banks around the world. headlined by the u.s. fed decision. today we'll hear from russia. the central bank there expected to remain cautious, keeping rates at 11%. a policy decision due at 6:30 eastern time this morning. >>> some deal news to report. trans canada buying columbia pipeline group for $10.2 billion. trans canada best known as the company behind the keystone xl oil pipeline. this deal would create one of north america's largest regulated natural gas transmissions. the stock reacting favorably. >> more stocks to watch. jpmorgan is raising its stock buyback program to $1.88 billion. johnson & johnson have been ordered by a federal jury in texas to pay $500 million to five plaintiffs who say they were injured by a metal hip implant. the jury fo

new york fed president bill dudley will be speaking today. in terms of earnings, movado reporting results before the opening bell. earnings kicking off much more into high gear starting next week, which a lot of folks say will be the next catalyst for the market. >> indeed. let's get to today's corporate news. yahoo!'s implementing proxy access. the new bylaws allow a group of up to 20 stakeholders who hold a 3% stake and have for at least three years, rights to nominate directors. >>> stocks to watch today. chipotle developing a burger chain. the company filing a trademark application earlier this month for better burger. a spokesperson saying the concept was in the works well before the burrito chain was hit by a wave of food-bourn illnesses in the past year. other chains include southeast asian kitchen. so the question there is whether investors are optimistic. actually, the stock finished up 2% on the news yesterday. big bets outside of burritos. will it work for chipotle? such a name brand. >> another big issue, they have to reassure peo

bill dudley says he is less confident on the inflation outlook in the united states.nt of the united risks says downside

liz: although bill dudley of the new york fed, and he's always a voter, said today in china he sees riskt to the downside. that's what he said. hey, listen, great to see you, sarge, thanks for getting in front of our cameras. march is coming in like a lion, but will it go out like a lamb? joining me now, brian bell sky. i meant go out like a bear. what do you think? >> no. i think investors around the world that we talk to have been positioned for recession heading into this year, and that's why we saw the big pullback. all this talk of contagion, we thought, was reprehensible and lacked analytical substance. now fundamentals have reigned supreme, and we continue to believe that the u.s. stock market's in the midst of a 20-year bull market. we think 2016's the reset, liz, and we don't think that there's not going to be volatility, because there's going to continue to be volatility especially with respect to the election cycle, but we think stocks are higher. liz: folks, in these last four and a half minutes, we have a big rally holding on. we're not at the highs of the session but very c

bill dudley says he is less confident on the inflation outlook in the united states. the president of the united risks -- hedownside expects them to reach the 2% target in time. bailey's has revealed it is under investigation by the sec. the probe is separate from an existing investigation into the company. valeant is also facing questions about its ability to cut debt. the share price fell more than 18%. ,lobal news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists. ♪ guy: busy morning. welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european open. i am guy johnson alongside hans nichols. barclays confirming it is selling its african business. jes staley telling bloomberg there was a difficult decision. we will break down whether he is making the right move. glencore posted a 69% slump in profit. afterl talk miners glencore reports that net loss. and the slowdown stevens. -- steepens. fresh figures from china. alan greenspan tells us that china's economy will slow even further. , once again, it is about the big banks. barclays, some comparisons with deutsche bank.

marymac the federal reserve, bill dudley suggesting the u.s.will offer any federal reserve interest rate increases. we were not necessarily expecting a big string of rate hikes. -tech we are back to the days the economy is bad and that is good for the stock market. financials were the worst performing sector in the month of february of the s&p sector so maybe you get a little bit of moved up -- but this is not -- maybe that was already factored into the financials. it will be difficult for them to make money. marymac is difficult for the fed had any cohesive decision for the last year. most analysts expect rates to be earlier but back to barkleys, this speaks to a larger trend of jpmorgan city, all the big banks are risking out of the emerging markets and that is something that i'm worried about what happened in the emerging markets and all the big banks. >> it is a longer-term issue and there are bigger fish to fry right now in europe, in japan, in china, the devaluation coming, deflationary fiers, these are modern economy is so we got to get

bill dudley says he is less confident on inflation. let's get back to our guest host.u look at inflation and the fact that central banks are throwing everything they have -- we mentioned negative rates -- how do they spur inflation? do they need to abandon that mandate and go for growth? >> i think that growth is the main challenge. we see it very clearly in the u.s. -- the u.s. is ahead of europe in terms of the business cycle. we have close to full employment, and what we are seeing is that core inflation is taking up. -- is ticking up. i understand the concerns of central bankers, because they have the responsibility, but if we look at all the data, the core measures all tell us that core inflation is at 2%. my concern about the fed right now is that they are too concerned about things that may happen instead of what is going on. when you are always worried about what could happen you never move. francine: of course, but the u.s. is not insular. you have possible more inflation dampening expectations because of china, you have possible devaluation of the yuan. infla

recent market gyrations and growth concerns led bill dudley to suggest he's not in a rate hiking moodhe said the balance of risk to my growth and inflation outlooks may be starting to tilt slightly to the downside just in time for the data to slide to the upside. today's market rally began with dudley's comments but accelerated about the better economic news. that says that maybe the market is more interested in better growth or more growth rather than more fed stimulus, kelly. >> you're right. that's what makes moving interest rates so interesting so to see the 10-year jump up. >> and stocks went up. >> exactly. >> usually that is a sign of kind of the reflation trade being put on. >> i think that makes -- dudley makes a very interesting point. came from that as well as the news overnight about china and ecb and more stimulus coming from there. as the day wore on and got that better data and market continued to move higher. steve is exactly right. people are tiled to the negativity and want to see real growth. it's almost a vote for america. >> funny, you mention that. i also want to

bill dudley, the president of the new york fed, is the master of ceremonies as she wraps up on a dais packed with lots of dignitaries from the economic and business worlds. market reaction vary, folks, pretty positive it. the dow moving up, if we have a minute-by-minute chart. you can see roughly where she began speaking in the 12:30 hour or at the point at which her text was released, and you can see it moving from red into green. steve liesman has joined us. s&p tracing a similar arc. no, steve liesman, they are wheeling him away, ladies and gentlemen. if you could have only seen that, you would have been amused, trust me. there's the s&p moving up. nasdaq has been in the green most of the day. the yield on the ten-year i believe went lower as the speech was released, and she began talking. there you see it dipping down but bounce up a little bit. again, they are at 1.84. so that is the market reaction. what i would characterize as a relatively dovish speak in response to some of the more hawkic comments. >> certainly when you see what the dollar did as well and treasuries is also r

bill dudley is worried about financial conditions. they haven't gotten back to where they were.ederal reserve is worried about financial conditions but they are the ones and exacerbating the problem at the same time. conditionalse off, -- financial conditions ease. can they be that concerned about financial and's additions -- about financial conditions when they drive them? >> it has a strong feedback into the broader economy and that's why they move so gradually. they cut in half their interest rate profile. they are looking at the tightening of financial conditions that happened late august and early september. there was the economic fallout that transpired as late as q4 when the economy did not grow much. they are looking at the first six weeks of the year and saying a similar tightening of financial conditions but we have to be cognizant of the potential fall out. q1 phenomenon. by late rate increases in the second quarter, it's simply not feasible. that's why they had to ratchet back that profile. --n: some key pieces of data gdp revisions on friday and those people are lis

bill dudley did that in september, where he highlighted in the speech he gave that data dependency is not just about u.s. economic data, it is about these things going on around the world. when the march meeting comes around, those are good things janet yellen will highlight. the reality is that it is unclear, the stresses coming out of e.m. in china, and how they will play into u.s. economic data. that is how they take a pass. i tell peoplee -- we are paid to tell clients what we think the fed will do, not what we think they should do. the reality is that we think they should raise rates in march. they should have been raising rates over the course of the last year, but the fed will take a pass again. what we are getting today is not just jobs added, but other numbers as well. among those are wage types. is there -- under among those -- among those are wage hikes. make a blackove to and white conversation when in fact the reality exists in the shade of gray. i always test people on this. if going from 1.5 to 2.5 in son -- itwhy 20-1 old is going from 1.5 to 2.5 and increase? , yes.mo

new york fed president bill dudley. also, boston fed president and the st. louis fed president. bullard's speech centers around the economy. we'll see what all three gentlemen have to say. also, trans-canada buying columbia pipeline group for 25.50 per share. that's in cash. about $10 billion total. the deal would create one of north america's largest regulated natural gas transmission businesses. >>> also, trump is getting targeted. the hacking group anonymous is posting what they say is trump's phone number, home address, and e-mail address. what can you do with all that information these days. >> who knows. i have my own issues with everything electronic around here yesterday. >> what happened? >> i don't know. the people that know how to fix it don't even necessarily know what's going to work. you try a bunch of stuff. there's no reason why it should work, then it finally does work. one password, you change one capital letter or something, then it works. everything syncs up. it's almost like medicine. it's like an art, not a science. >> you are completely reliant on it. >> i

and chicago fed president charles evans and new york fed president bill dudley are speaking today. i feel like these guys are speaking a lot these days. >> maybe we should pay more attention. >> they've been blabbing for years, i think. i'm looking right now, i don't want to know -- my life isn't, you know -- doesn't begin december 31st, january 1st. so the dow is at 17 -- like just under 17,800. >> we're about 3.25%. >> so we had been down. we went down into the beginning of the year. but then we came back a little. we're at 2016 highs. we're not that far though, really. i think it's 18 and change. all right. what you said was, see what you've create td. i thought you meant the argument. i'm telling you, if someone was born to anchor "squawk alley," when i watch you, i can't miss it. i don't miss a minute of that when you're on there. you're so good. >> thank you. let me say, carl was born to anchor. he does a great job at it. >> anyway, your uber rating. they were talking about an uber rating. i don't know, it was dirty. you said show me yours and i'll show you mine. >> our ratin

bill galvin is looking for a lot of independents to pick up republican ballots. and in traditionally democratic wards, there' hillary clinton. the election ward here in dudley square' s had voting at midday not as high as 2008 but deftly on track to beat 2012. >> i believe hillary is one of us anyway. bill and hillary have been about the community. janet: for others, it is a longtime new england connection bringing votes. >> when he was an elected official in vermont and i was looking for scholarship money for kids, he helped me get it. it is as simple as that. >> i have seen a picture of him where he did some civil rights work, but i honestly never really heard of him. when i was born back in the day, i should' ve heard something by now. >> bernie sanders seems like he has a lot of fresh ideas. we have to give him a shot. want a woman president. we are overdue. janet: the secretary of state points out the website that points out the he polling stations had more visitors today than in 2008. >> the question was if the democratic turnout would meet 2008. i' m encouraged that it will. we are seeing very high turnouts, a lot of young people voting. janet: there