anna: interesting thoughts of former new york fed president bill dudley.tinue this conversation and look ahead to the job report with michelle who is with us. good morning. there is a wide range of forecasts for this month's reports. everybody so much remembering what happened last month, the disappointment. what are you looking for in this report? to better understand how the u.s. labor market and economy are functioning? >> good morning. all 76 estimates are looking for a higher topline figure than the disappointing 266,000 in april. the estimates are wide-ranging. this may be viewed as a check on the april data. the big message whether -- whether we can view the april disappointment as a fluke. maybe seasonal factors got in the way. given the massive uncertainties, economists are saying they will not be surprised by any number of scenarios. some things to focus on, we will be looking for whether businesses are pushed to bump up wages to attract more employees. we heard that from bill dudley. we have been hearing labor -- of labor shortages in the beige

shery: former new york fed president bill dudley says he does not see the unwinding of a bond facilitytaper signal. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, dudley says he believes current inflationary spikes are temporary. >> you really need to have pressure on resources, and pressure on resources starts with labor. it is probably premature to expect a real labor problem because we still have a lot of people out of work because of the pandemic. compared to february before the start of the pandemic, we are still short about 8 million jobs. hard to have an inflation problem if wages are still quiescent. shery: how much control does the fed have over inflation? >> i think they still have control at large in that they can determine how fast the economy grows. the supply disruptions we see right now they cannot do very much about. what we saw used car prices is a confluence of two things, ship destruction eliminating new car production and until car prices. quickset raises the question of the reaction from the federal reserve, in other words, they can change or observe decline in these prices sh

bill dudley in a bit. stay with us on radio and on television. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news -- >> with the first word news, i am karina mitchell. benjamin netanyahu is on the verge of coming to an end, he is about to be unseated by the unlikeliest government in history -- in their history. he has put together a diverse coalition to oust netanyahu. he would share power with naturalist and tolley bennett will be prime minister. russia is trying to reduce exposure to u.s. assets because of the threat of tension. it will eliminate the dollar from its wealth fund. it will shift to euro's, yuan, and gold. it will not take place within the huge reserves, so it will be difficult to trace whether there is market impact. indiana global powers have adjourned talks on reviving iran's nuclear deal. a foreign policy official warns the u.s. and iran will have to make hard decisions. [indiscernible] president biden and the senates main negotiator on infrastructure plan to me tomorrow. the president's discussion yesterday did not result in a b

bill is with us, we're talking about bill dudley's warning about average inflation targeting. how sticky is inflation for you? what are you going to be looking for in c.t.i. print that might change your thinking? good morning. >> good morning annmarie and good morning, manus. absolutely the inflation pressure is going to concentrate. there is going to be enduring dryness behind this. the inflation headlines of c.t.i. on thursday, c.p.i. going forward are going to make difficult reading. it will create volatility in the bond market and will create elevated levels of expectations for risk premium on the back end. as we see this coming through, we've got a heterogenic recovery across the globe. we have got supply and nand constraints and bottlenecks as we open up. we're going to see baseline effects. there are some real -- it's not just baselines. there are some real sort of pressures here. if you look at container shipment, the cost of a container precovid to containers today has gone up five or six-fold. that needs to work its way through the season and it will do. there are ot

bill dudley, bloomberg opinion columnist and former new york fed president.le bit of insight into the inner workings of the federal reserve. lisa: this is the reason why markets are shrugging off some of the more hawkish dots from last week's fed meeting. people are saying that was not fed chair powell, that was not john williams, it wasn't rich clarida, so we don't have to pay attention to those dots. what is the purpose of all of these regional fed presidents coming out and having a more hawkish tilt, warning about froth, warning about potential upside surprises to inflation, if everyone just ignores them anyway? basically, if it is going to be fed chair powell and nobody else? jonathan: i think some healthy dissent is important. are we getting that now from this federal reserve? i remover one interview with jim bullard in the last couple of months when he almost said he was waiting for chairman powell to start the conversation about tapering. they are waiting for the chairman to almost queue what they can and can't talk about -- almost cue what they can an

anna: bill dudley says it is not the fed's full.s to capitalize on the recent rally issuing new shares. you know you are in a business that makes for easier investments. may be don't ask too many questions about why your stock is rallying and take the opportunity. juliet: no amc wants to issue 25 million more shares. they say they will not do that this year. they have issued a regulatory filing for this plan to issue new share prices, valued at 1.3 million dollars -- billion dollars. in a youtube video, the ceo has said proceeds would be to reduce debt. helping the company negotiate with landlords. this is a major retreat from when they wanted to issue 500 million new shares. they never got that to shareholders because they realized it would be rejected. we are seeing some signals emerge. amc shares falling post trading. looking at germany's trade gate. down 13% from the closing price. 36.78 euros. a drop of about 13%, showing some of these signals. mark: what is this i am hearing about retail traders in asia wanting and in the sect

shery: bill dudley. it's all inflation concerns right now. focus here in the u.s.s the world as we continue to see strength in the emerging market currencies with the mexican peso topping that 19.9 level after rallying more than 1.5% in the new york session. we saw banks raising their rates for the first time since 2018. it's coming at a time when inflation has been really rallying and we saw inflation numbers topping 6%, which is way above their inflation target. a similar picture for brazil, when annual inflation is topping 8%, more than double the central bank target. same thing with the chilean peso , around 4% higher than the 3% inflation target. we continue to see these moves from chile as well. they could see lift often central bank rates as soon as next month. brazil was one of the first to hike rates in the t-20. we continue to see the rally in these against the u.s. dollar as inflation becomes more of a concern. haidi: it will be top of mind when we speak later on with the monetary board member, anita. she joins us to discuss female leadership at the cent

haidi: bill dudley, former new york fed president, thank you for joining us. we will have more analysis i had -- ahead. we will also be assessing the market impact. following the fed, other central banks are in the spotlight. we have seen different adjustments recently. >> this morning, publishing it's finalized adequacy requirements, reiterating that bank capital english as will be facing a seven-year period starting from next july. a little change in qe dollar holdings in the wake of the fed. given the hawkish tilt that reese, brazil central bank hiking rates as expected. briefly climbing to the strongest level in a year. the bcb seeing 75 basis of tightening in august. indonesia, likely to hold a rates for a fourth straight month. taiwan dollar on the other hand, facing more upside pressure, trading at a 24 year high. now, switching out the board, the fed's hawkish lien does make it easier for the pboc to curb the yuan. we see a four potentially put in place for the greenback which may cool commodity prices. i want to pull up this chart. u.s. yield jumping

william dudley of the new york fed and all of his work at goldman sachs over the years, bill dudley has. the essay this morning from dudley is a required read because he lectures us on the dynamics of inflation and how it links to the real economy. i will get that out on twitter. it is somebody mouthing off with certitude about inflation. congratulations on clearing the air. i want to go back to heller in the 1960's. it is real simple. you emphasize demand inflation over cost push inflation. why is demand of labor so important to jumpstart our fear of inflation? william: there's an ongoing inflation problem, not just the bubble we are experiencing right now from reopening and supply disruptions. you really need to have pressure on resources, and pressure on resources starts with labor. it is probably premature to expect a real inflation problem right now because we still have a lot of people out of work because of the pandemic. you look at the level of payroll employment compared to where we were for the pandemic started, we are still 8 million jobs short. while wage pressure in the fir

larry fink and bill dudley weighed in over the last 24 hours. it is going to be a pretty big shock.ill dudley writing in a bloomberg opinion column today that the fed is likely to act too late to prevent the economy from overheating, no matter what prices do this year. the risk of higher inflation down the road remains elevated. going me to help understand it, nicola mai, pimco sovereign credit analyst. do you agree with think and deadly, or do you agree with -- with fink and dudley, or do you agree with the fed? nicola: i am more in the camp of the fed, that the recent rise in inflation is largely temporary. first of all, the rising prices we have seen in the u.s. have been driven by sectors that are particularly affected by stimulus, which should weigh some extent going forward. i would expect the goods sector to eventually unwind, and coupled with the fact that the man should rotate from services, as the economies reopen, some of the pressures of pricing will subside, and there's also the fact that a lot of the balances are going through a price level adjustment as we get out of

i thought bill dudley was absolutely brilliant in his essay where he leads off with the way this workscompanies have to demand workers. is there evidence of labor demand? carl: there is certainly evidence of labor demand, but there is evidence that potential workers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for jobless benefits to expire, waiting for schools to reopen, and waiting for jobs with decent pay and decent benefits relative to what they held prior to the pandemic. the supply and demand dynamic that we pay close attention to and if we look at the measures of demand, life new layoffs -- like layoffs and jobs numbers, those suggest robust conditions. but i will be on the pessimistic side going into today's number because when we look at what really matters, the number of people collecting longer-term unemployment benefits, things like continuing claims, they have not budged over the course of the last month to any meaningful degree. that causes me to have skepticism that maybe we could see not something as weak as what we saw in april, but something that still has a tone of sluggishn

jonathan: bill dudley said something that got my attention. you can start to marginalize yourself on the fomc if other people are not coming with you. is that true for any of these guys today? lisa: the issue to me is they don't want to be subject to groupthink. they want to demonstrate they are aware of inflationary pressures, of financial risk. at what point is it a positive for the federal reserve, even jay powell, for some dissent so people can say they are not tone deaf? they are recognizing what we are seeing but the message is being set clearly from the trifecta we will not move anytime soon. perhaps they are dovetailing this and executing perfectly. jonathan: dissent is a healthy thing. we cannot accuse the team met virgin galactic of groupthink. spce in the premarket for virgin galactic up by more than 12%. off the back of this headline, virgin galactic gets faa approval to fly customers into space. taylor: they are still on track to do that first flight this summer. i'm trying to figure out who is off the $28 million blue origin bid.

bill dudley says you only need to listen to three people. >> the thing to pay attention to is the chairman, the vice chairman of the board of governors and the vice-chairman. the victory set the agenda for the market committee. ♪ joe: oh welcome back to wooded you miss. we take a look at the reason growing inflation debate and the divergent views on the timing for tapering. the extreme reaction to the treasury markets after the hawkish surprise at the fomc meeting last week has investors looking to the fed to provide some calm. the spread between 30 year and five year treasurers plunged to the lowest level since late last year, fully erasing several months of reflationary steepening. >> it is easy to say the fed should tighten and i think they should. you will see a very sensitive market and a very sensitive economy. joe: the fed anticipates two interest rate increases by the unit -- by the end of 2023. >> much of the consensus of perm rational economic -- of professional economic foresters is we would have inflation at 2% this year. we have already had more inflation than that in the firs

highlights from our interview with the new york fed president, bill dudley.is watching the labor market very closely. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: just getting some breaking news out of hong kong. we are hearing a number of arrests out of hong kong. five company directors have been arrested for breaching the national security law. ryan more has been arrested -- moore has been arrested. and the apple daily digital ceo has been arrested according to tvb. the government saying the police force arresting five company directors this morning for violations of the hong kong national security act. four men and one woman, suspected of violating article 29, the crime of inspiring to collude with foreign forces to endanger nasa q -- national security. arrested searches of the person's residence have been conducted as well. we will bring you more details as we get to that. it has been a steady clamp down on the right to demonstrate, some freedoms we have seen in hong kong. kathleen: more breaking news. juneteenth is going to become a federal holiday in the united states.

the former new york president bill dudley on bloomberg tv today, exclusive interview, said above all,lly when it comes to tapering, the fed is going to be patient. here is what he said. >> the fed is not going to stop their asset purchases quickly, probably going to continue into the fall. the balance sheet will continue to grow. reserves will continue to grow. then when it finally decides to normalize its balance sheet, the balance sheet it will take a long time to get it back to the reserves we had prior to the pandemic. yvonne: certainly, we will be looking more into that. our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays. let's get the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: the peso rallied after mexico unexpectedly raised rates for the first time since 2018. the central-bank hikes rates, pointing to a jump in inflation that policymakers describe as transitory. inflation accelerated to 6% in june, far above the 3% target. mexico joined a small group of countries increasing rates this year including russia and turkey. . the bank of england, meanwhile, is pushing

matt: it's interesting because bill dudley yesterday wrote a opinion piece for us and said the fed isoo focused on full employment at allowing the economy to run hot. that means they are going to have to turn around at some point and raise rates faster than they normally what to slow things down. the concern is we then go into another full-blown recession. but one of your predictions was that we are beginning the longest economic cycle in history. you think it is going to surpass the one that lasted from 2010 through 2020. do you stick with that even with your views on inflation and the possibility the fed is going to have to slam on the brakes? byron: i don't think inflation is going to get so high that the fed has to be tough. i think the fed will raise rates or stop accommodating but i think the economy can still move ahead. i don't know if we will go the full decade with increasing growth, but i do think we will go the next few years without growth getting to the point where the fed has to take definitive action. matt: what does this all due to gold? it is a commodity i have been

bill dudley says he thinks the risk is not that the fed moves too quickly, he thinks it is that the fed moves too slowly. >> the risk is too slow. they are at full employment. >> in may and june, where will they be? by september and october, the unemployment checks run out. the childcare and elderly care centers reopen. it is very important to jay powell and the fed. r the end of the summer, we may see some more. >> that was kathleen hays with us in new york. let's stay in the new york and get the first word news. >> hong kong police have reportedly arrested five executives from stimuli's next digital growth. local media says apple daily editor chief brian the. jimmy lai is serving in jail. president joe biden says he confronted vladimir putin about human rights violations, including the case of imprisoned opposition figure alexei navalny. he says that he wanted him against cyberattacks. the two leaders agreed to work together to reduce the threat of nuclear war and agreed to cooperate on iran. china sent three astronauts into space in its first crude mission in almost five years. they

i think it is interesting bill dudley, as tom pointed out, is saying, yeah, interest rates are goingo have to rice but they will have to write a lot more and a lot faster than the fed realizes. -- rise a lot more and a lot faster than the fed realizes. former policymakers sort of lining up in opposition to craig economic policy. matt: dudley says when they start to raise rates, if they push unemployment up i just have to percent, that is very likely to cause a full-blown recession. -- by just half a percent, that is likely to cause a full-blown recession. it seems to be the consensus. when i was a kid, my grandparents lived on a fixed income. my parents as far as i know live on a fixed income. that is not helpful to them, inflation. doesn't that hurt retirees? party: it depends on where the inflation is. if interest rates rise, money market funds are returning close to zero. so retirees who have fixed income but the 401(k)'s are going nowhere so it depends on where the inflation shows up. tom: i have got to ask you, lilibet diana. they had that ball out of the park with the name on t

yvonne: that was bill dudley. some more news on huarong right now.hey have appointed the head of china great wall asset management as a president of the company. he is also a deputy party secretary. an industry veteran to become president of huarong and it does remove some of the uncertainty in filling a key role there that has been empty since november. a lot of questions about what this means, about what state support we will get from beijing. the clock is ticking for huarong to do something, because s&p is coming out with a new know on thursday that says, they want to avoid a technical default, they will have to potentially face a hard deadline to produce those 2020 results. haslinda: let's continue the conversation with the spc head of asia strategy. let's get some reaction from you. this news at huarong, does it ease concerns with credit default in china? guest: --haslinda: we will get back to her soon. yvonne, let's take you to the latest is in his headlines. tesla shares stumble. the stock fell by more than 5%. adding to a more than 30% slide

dudley, bill dudley, and federal reserve bank of new york president. equity futures with a list this morning. -- lift this morning. we advanced .5%. it is thursday morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: u.s. officials are confirming that details of the genetic makeup of some of the earliest samples of coronavirus in china were removed from the american database where they were stored at the request of chinese researchers. officials say the data first submitted to the u.s. based archive in 2020 were requested to be withdrawn by the same researcher three months later. south africa's daily covid-19 infections rose to nearly 17,500, the highest number recorded a quarter to the national institute of communicable diseases. with 1.8 6 million people infected and more than 59,000 deaths, south africa has the highest number of confirmed infections on the continent. croatian cryptocurrency exchange backed by a group of billionaires is in merger talks. the deal could value it at nearly $12 billion. the final valuation could change depending on the final point of bit

none of it matters, according to at least former fed official bill dudley yesterday. not necessarily, i'm absolutely butchering his words, but he said the key people to pay attention to is john williams as well as the fed jay powell and rich clara. jon: so you say don't listen to three of them today? lisa: i will say listen to them. it could be interesting fodder for discussions, but as far as the balance of power on the federal reserve and what they will do, [indiscernible] jon: that is so diplomatic. lisa: i'm trying, it is friday. jon: we have turned you from a colonist -- columnist back into a journalist. lisa: we all know that that is the case, yet the noise that does seem to be picking up has given a little more volatility to bond markets. however, transient. jon: thank you, lisa. lisa: i try. jon: let's get to the banks. we are shaping up as follows for the banks in america. in the premarket, jp morgan up by 1%, bank of america by about the same. i imagine this was a big thing for you and the close as we got the stress test results, the green light to pay out m

bill dudley alluded to this in his really important essay today.asy way out is for chairman powell to take the jobs report tomorrow into june 16, and then just wait for more data. that's got to be by far and away his easiest path. michael: it is also the strategic path for them at this point. tom: i agree. that is important. that's different. michael: they don't want a taper tantrum, so we will probably see remarks that they started talking about a plan. a be the staff presented them with a plan or some possible options. once they get through that, they go into the july meeting and talks are more around the data they see. tom: we are looking at november 3. that's say they want to avoid december 15 and the end of the year. we could be playing this game until november 3. michael: it is going to be a staring contest between the markets in the fed, especially when we get inflation data that is going to continue to show inflation running well north of 3% for quite some time. tom: you are going to stay around for claims, right? michael: i'm employed at t

you have the likes of bill dudley on one side, and a whole host of professionals including no -- includingobel laureates saying the fed has it exactly right in the markets right now, saying the fed does seem to have it right for the time being. tom: the other thing i would look at besides bitcoin a bit off is within the data blur, the quiet of the fx market to me is really important. i loved when one of our guests said mom is the fx market and dad is the debt market. i thought that was pretty good. [laughter] lisa: setting up a real battle between the two that feels somehow familiar. romaine: what is bitcoin, the crazy uncle? lisa: romaine, the nasdaq is at session highs, up 0.5 percent. this stems from the low yields, but also potentially the boost from the cyber issues we saw. what are you seeing in that area? romaine: we saw this correlation before a couple of months ago, when we saw those yields drop and we saw a little bit of a pop in those big cap tech names. people tend to gravitate towards this is a form of safety here. it may not be some of those cyclical names people have been fi

long bill and far away, bill dudley has been on fire as the new york fed. dudley at goldman sachs.a guy out of germany via wisconsin, madison, and oxford and i was like, ok. then he stopped the u.s. economy market world with mortgage equity withdrawal. that is how he first came to my attention. jan hatzius has gone on a claimant goldman sachs. -- gone on to a claim at goldman sachs. the x axis out for any fed chairman is always a challenge. what is the challenge for chairman powell right now as he looks out to 2023? jan: there is a number of positions that have to be made before that. when did they start to taper qe? they have said they will not hike rates until that process has concluded where they have strongly implied it. that will then determine what do you think when rates are going to start rising. at the moment the dot plot is basically saying no hikes until the end of 2023. that will be on the table today and i think it is a close call. my best guess is they stick with the message they are sending. tom: jan hatzius predicts boring meeting. it is after-the-fact. our matt boe

tom: really thrilled to have him on yesterday, with bill dudley.rd and deadly really speaks volumes about -- and dudley really speaks volumes about our booking team. taylor riggs and romaine bostick in for jon ferro and lisa abramowicz. joining us now, josh wingrove is on the lawn of the white house this morning, our white house correspondent josh, i think of -- i think "the washington post" had it beautiful. it was a photo of the gentleman from oregon, a personification of what the democrats face. he won like 110% of the vote in the 1990's and his oregon district. last time around, he barely won because of the coming on of the republican party. how does that dynamic fold into this infrastructure and transportation debate? josh: absolutely, he's been an advocate for infrastructure. democrats believe their path to winning or holding onto things in the midterms is typically to get things done. regardless of whether that will deliver them the midterms or not, they figure they might as well get things done because the alternative is they lose and they

that could result in a full-blown recession, as bill dudley told you a couple days ago. tom: mr. dudley on fire with those columns from bloomberg opinion. lisa, let's try to bring it back to what we observe, which is price. in the market, price is indicated by yield. i believe we have a massively negative real yield. that is the elephant in the room for jerome powell. lisa: the idea everyone is expecting a jerome powell to keep the pedal to the metal with the respect to 120 billion dollars bond purchases every month, keep the easy money policies for longer, suppressing bond yields below where inflation is. you mentioned mohamed el-erian, and he wrote a column in the financial times about how dramatic the risk-taking is an potential expected height on the line could do to that. tom: thank you so much for them and our team forgetting dr. hooper on. for those of you not on global wall street, this paper has created a sensation among people worried about the linkage of economics, finance, and investment. the ecb later, guy johnson in cornball -- cornwall. please stay with us. this is

we heard from bill dudley, we heard from glenn hubbard at columbia. there's a lot of that assumption in the market. we are waiting for the fed to do something. it is not there. tom: at least this will give us -- romaine: at least this will give us more groundwork for what to expect, assuming the data comes in around what excitations are. i think the question is if we do get another downside miss like last time, that really changes the calculus for a lot of folks. tom: i want to go to the many nuances we see, and carl riccadonna of bloomberg intelligence was good about the two-part jobs report we may witness in 28 minutes. that two-part jobs report yes, the obvious that we see, a lot of jobs are coming back. but beneath it, there is some real nuance, some unsettled trends where b is it is -- where maybe it is a pause of those 8 million unemployed. taylor: ellen zentner said it great. the hours worked per week coming down. michael gapen of barclays seeing the opposite. it really highlights the discrepancy would continue to see. you do want input. you tw

shery: bloomberg columnist and former new york fed president bill dudley.the upcoming rb i decision where india's monetary policy makers are expected to maintain rates for six straight meetings. joining us is the head of equity strategy. we have inflation, a concern in india as it is globally. this chart on the bloomberg showing the price trends in the country. the first top panel showing you how big of an economic hit they have taken from the pandemic with gdp collapsing during the pandemic crisis. how difficult a task is it for the rb i to maintain this, trying to support the economy without stoking inflationary pressures? >> i am delighted to be here and this is a great question. i think they need to go big and be aggressive. in my view, they have to stay with the policy rate. the damage has been significant. the output that was widening, the jobless rate is widening. the inflation has eased. all these factors give them elbowroom. the rb i will stay at four. the four things i'm looking for, the estimate for 10.5%. that can be brought down a little bit. t

make this whole idea of transitory inflation a very difficult one to discuss and then you have bill dudley renting an opinion piece on bloomberg which has come out earlier today, and he is talking about the fact that managing this new inflation approach is getting a lot more difficult the fed in this environment as well so previously, a lot of people thought that this june meeting would be a nonevent. suddenly, all eyes are on the fed and we could expect something a bit more interesting, particularly when jerome powell speaks to the press after the meeting. shery: anything interesting coming from the yuan fixing? mark: yesterday was a big one. that move of 32 pips above the forecast was one of the largest the pboc have ever done, a clear protest that they did not want the you want to get any stronger. overnight, the offshore yuan is a little bit stronger. they probably don't need to act as aggressively today because you can see there has been a falling volume. yesterday was about the quietest day for months on onshore yuan trading so you can see traders are losing interest of it and trying

. >> that was the former new york fed president bill dudley, speaking to lisa abramovich and jonathan from a crypto services firm, after fundraising. the cofounder will tell us what he plans the fund, that has gained unicorn status. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> take a look at how some crypto assets are trading at the moment. not a lot of movement when it comes to bitcoin, after the recession of gains. we have seen it grain -- after three sessions of gains. we have seen it gain ground, but you have to put it into context after we saw the halving of the price from $65,000 in april. ethereum, we continue to see it outperform other cryptocurrencies. citigroup launching a crypto and blockchain unit within its wealth management division. despite. the route in may, cryptocurrency's total market value still up 400% over the past year. haidi: really need, the broader context. amber group is a crypto financial services firm, with over $2 billion in asset management. there latest funding round got $100 million from backers. joining us is michael wu, cofounder and ceo of amber group. i am wondering, w