let's get another take on this, bill dudley is weighing in.is, quantitive easing must stay in the bull market beyond what is consistent with longer-term fundamentals. he did suggest investors would be wise to take advantage of the recent rally and take money off the table before the -- ends. it is great to have you on the program, bill. when does that largesse finally run out? we had strong numbers on friday in the jobs report. we get a cpi number later this week. how close are we? when does the fed run out of excuses and finally pull the trigger on this taper? bill: they are obviously getting closer, because the language is talking about the fact for substantial tightness. they have already made progress. but i think we are a couple months away from when we will see the announcement, then may be a month or two after that the taper will start. it will take eight or 10 months to complete. then we will start to worry about when the fed will raise short-term rates. alix: does not result in a tantrum? bill: the risk of a tantrum is less this time

more insight from some wonderful guests, including bill dudley, the former new york fed president. he will be joining us shortly. the equity market near all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is set to approve that 550 million dollar infrastructure package. it would be the largest infusion of cash in decades for roads, bridges, and other domestic projects. the bill still faces challenges in the house. speaker pelosi said she will hold onto the bill until the senate also takes up the larger spending plan. according to economists surveyed by bloomberg, today's jobs report is likely to show the u.s. adding about 858,000 jobs last. the rollout of vaccines has encouraged businesses to reopen and consumers to return to shops, restaurants and bars. more than 30 u.s. trade groups have called on the biden administration to resume negotiations with china to remove tariffs. the trade groups include influential organizations such as the u.s. chamber of commerce. public universities in the u.s. faces student lawsuits over coronav

we will get to that with bill dudley here in a moment. lisa abramowicz and tom keene.y leinz in for jon ferro. dow futures up 38. a nice correlated lift to the market with higher yields, 1.27% , up to basis points on the 10 year yield. the dollar, fractional weaknesses well. oil with a lift, and goldman sachs out to $80 a barrel as well. on the granularity of the market, romaine bostick. good morning. romaine: we talk about the broader market moving higher here in the premarket, but some of the individual movers, the most notable ones are going down. keep an eye on some of those delivery companies, ride-hailing and food delivery companies. back in november, the state of california here in the u.s. past that ballot measure that basically exempted a lot of these independent contractors from various state labor laws. a judge on friday said that ballot measure violates the state constitution. a lot of analysts already saying ultimately, huber and doordash and the like will still win this level -- huber and -- uber and doordash and the like will likely still win that battle

the former new york fed president and bloomberg columnist bill dudley tells bloomberg the fed is notg his eye off inflation in favor of jobs growth. >> monetary policy is to drive the economy to full employment, to get as many employed as possible. there are those who are less attached to the labor market. the fed was arguing the inflation spike we have seen is likely to be transitory, and if the fed were wrong, the market would respond. the market reaction was positive to the speech. the fed is going to let the economy run, inflation is not going to be a problem, but the fed is not ignoring that. >> he made that clear, but there are some people who are reticent about what gets us to maximum employment. how far do you have to let inflation go to get us there? we really don't know. this is a new communication of what the mandate is and i guess people are starting to put some sort of metric there that they can measure and i'm not sure those of us who are not economists know what that is. >> german powell laid out -- chairman powell laid out a few things, pressure on wages and increase

we heard a rather interesting piece by a former fed governor, bill dudley, just earlier this week.should take into account that the constraint that the fed is under. he is saying that, well basically, the fed and the u.s. has a bit of a difficult situation because lawmakers on the right and left disagree so widely on climate change. it's not like it is here in europe. the fed needs to be independent. if i read you this quote, it is saying that if the central bank explicitly includes climate change as a monetary policy condition, lawmakers could accuse it of overstepping its mandate. he goes on to say that if this does happen, the fed's independence could be under threat. it needs that to make its monetary policy decisions. it could be at risk of having political interference as well. tom: those political undercurrents hard to ignore on today, -- aren't they? thank you very much for that breakdown, ritika gupta. the real jackson hole event might actually be happening 7000 miles away, according to our mliv strategist. we will discuss where in the world we see the main event actually

bill dudley scheduled to join us, the former president of the new york fed, in a bit. right now, lori, it is a resilient market. it is a market that can break out to new highs? >> thanks for having me, tom, thanks for having me, lisa. we will get a pullback by the end of the year, so we have a target of 43.25 on the s&p. what is interesting in the price action last week, it felt like we had a growth skirmish to start the week. we saw the index falter and the fed defectors leading the charge. when that happens, the market cannot sustain this move to the upside. what we thought toward the end of the week is that those jitters calms down a little bit, tech started working, and we started to see the stability in the index return. but markets not really climb. when you have that nervousness and the shift to high-quality, it is a very delicate balance. it did not work for most of last week. lisa: how big is this worry if we have the fed that is packing the market come if we have the greater potential for the fiscal stimulus if the slowdown does persist? doesn't policy suppor

tom: with the uproar of bill dudley, of course supporting bloomberg with his good academics, when he was new york fed president it was something about ipads. there is a disconnect and it is tangible. i sympathize with our viewers and listeners. they do not care about the dallas mean. jonathan: that is not with the bill looks like at the end of the month. he did not get to cut off the bits you do not like. maybe you do. i don't. let's get to our first guest, jeff henriksen, university of oxford senior fellow. equity still the best pool to be fishing in. why? jeff: thanks for having me. it is been great listening to you guys talk about everything. we do not look at asset classes as a monolithic security you need to embrace or avoid. we look at every asset classes an opportunity. when we look at the market today we think equities still provide the best opportunity for investors to find ideas to place capital. that said, it is becoming more and more of a stock pickers market. you have to understand the type of businesses you are buying, the valuations in which you are buying them. if i h

lisa: basically, the fed put that has been ongoing, and bill dudley even said the dominant factor in yields being as low as they are, is trickling over to the credit side. companies refinancing at the fastest pace ever. i think we were framing the debate well earlier today, when you were talking about can the fed raise rates and move away from their stimulus if everybody is buying into it and following them? how disruptive will it be for them to change course if everyone is just saying we don't want to fight you, we are on the same pages you? will that necessarily lead to a correction that the fed is not prepared for right now? tom: do we change the parlor game over the fed when we see a headline that tyson foods will require vaccinations from their u.s. workforce? that filters into our game. jonathan: we talked about august as being passed through to september because september, we are waiting for the supply-side response. more people coming back to work, easing some of the supply constraints. that is how we respond to this delta variant in the coming months. that's why this headlin

tom: that was bill dudley and jeffrey lacker.ollowing the virtual jackson hole event, markets will be watching when the fed will begin tapering its bond purchases. we still don't have a timeframe. u.s. jobs data later this week may signal whether the u.s. economy is moving back to normalcy. monica is still with us. how closely will you be scrutinizing the jobs data friday? to what extent do you expect a guideline or a framework for when the tapering starts? >> i think that jay powell last week was quite clear in citing the importance [indiscernible] it won't be just friday. [indiscernible] however, we don't think the participation rate will recover anytime soon. in any case, it would be also important to look at wages. what we are looking at today is much weaker than expected in the second quarter. it will be weaker in the third quarter. consumption is a big chunk of the gdp figures, so i think that certainly the unemployment that we need to look at as part of the picture. tom: we have seen some of that high-frequency data flashi

bill dudley really stepping up and supporting chairman powell for reappointment. mr. of course, senior economic advisor to bloomberg and former president of the new york fed. we have a packed segment here. we are going to get right to it, with futures up seven, and it is real simple. there's a wall of money out there, which means i think still come upon price goes down, you'll goes up. is it something not that, dave wilson? did i do ok there? dave: you did just fine. that relationship is kind of breaking down a bit. it is something stephen panelli over at knowledge leaders capital pointed out the other day. we have seen the s&p 500 setting record after record. it came really close to doing that again yesterday, there kind of tailed off. we may be looking at another record today. here's the thing, though. you have not seen bonds go along for the ride. prices have fallen, and that means yields have risen. so that is what the chart represents. by inverting the yield, you can soon see that direct relationship in terms of price. you are just not seeing what you saw earlier

guy: that was bill dudley speaking to alix and myself yesterday on his outlook for the fed taper.mes ahead of tomorrow's u.s. epi data for july. the data that has been coming out of the united states has been propelling the dollar higher. there the bloomberg dollar index. you can see the spike on the right-hand side of that chart. if we get a big cpi print this week, do we see that extending? mark mccormick, td securities head of global fx strategy, joins us. is that the set up? what if we don't get that? walk us through your scenarios. mark: i think that is a good playbook to thing about. what we have seen since the fed became a bit more hawkish in june is we have seen u.s. data surprises, when they are good, it is good for the dollar. we haven't seen that for quite some time because we have generally seen good global data has been bad for the dollar because it is reinforcing reflation. i think what we are trying to figure out is good u.s. data, particularly on the inflation growth side, helps us navigate a little bit of when we can have some clarity on when tapering is happening

tom: talking to bill dudley there, former president of the new york fed, he's thinking very much about getting the real yield back. the dislocations in the market are not only part of this jobs report, but the one coming up for august. lisa: not only with the headline number, but with some of the details. it was interesting that ellen zentner really focused on the blot aspect of this employment report, and particular the wage friend. want to bring you this in the dow jones newswire, walmart is extending bonuses to keep its hourly workers. how much will this affect hourly wages going up in this report? tom: also, the united airlines headline. so much going on right now. what is so important about this hour on radio and television nationwide is it is about the markets. the bond market, yes, the american economy, and the stock market, how they react. jonathan: the s&p 500 coming into friday, at record highs. we advanced by 0.03 percent. we have walk you through the bond market, 1.2499% on tens. euro-dollar negative, the euro weaker, dollars stronger. crude had a look at $70 earlier. here

bill dudley says he sees less chance of a taper tantrum this time. >> i think the risk of a tantrum this time is less because people understand the game plan. first we taper and then we raise short-term rates and then we start to let the balance street -- balance sheet strength. >> he is buying into our exposure to equities. let's bring in the ceo. great to have you back. with the correction come in the form of another taper tantrum given what the fed will do and how big could it be? >> we never know what will cause the next correction in the market. we know it has been a while since we saw any pullback of 5% or more. especially given the huge run-up we have seen year-to-date in the markets without any pullback so far this year. i would expect that to happen before the end of the year. investors should be prepared for it. >> we are showing that we have not seen that sort of pullback in a long time of more than 5%. where would you buy into if you were to jump into a correction? >> one of the things we are seeing is we were in midcycle. the early-stage recovery to more midcycle. that time

bill dudley and jeffrey lacher talking about the focus on inflation after jackson hole last week, whereome powell reiterated inflation is transitory and signaled tapering could begin before the end of the year. investors are looking ahead to friday's jobs data for further clarity about the strength of the u.s. economy as the delta variant continues to cloud the outlook for the u.s. and elsewhere. kit jukes still with us. interesting, you talk a little bit about the taper. you mentioned it in our last conversation. jerome powell broke that link between the taper conversation and the interest rate conversation. will we keep having to come back to that separation if we do continue to see inflation at elevated levels? not necessarily where they are now, but elevated toward recent history? >> it just means -- firstly, it means that the gravity of expectations is firmly in 2023. last week, there was much talk about if you started tapering comfortably before the end of the year, if you started in october, and did reduced from $80 billion of buying of treasuries a month, then quite quickly goin

anna: that was the former new york fed president bill dudley, saying he would support jerome powell fors fed chair. president biden will decide who to nominate for the next four year term at the fed around labor day with powell favored for renomination. let's get a bloomberg business flash. >> shaking off concerns about the invest ability of chinese stocks following beijing's recent crackdown. in an exclusive interview, the chief executive told bloomberg that chinese markets have quickly rebounded in the past. >> we have to see how it all shakes out, but i think it is important to keep in mind that countries go through periods like this. there is no country that is exempt about this, including western countries. >>>> ride-hailing company dd has suspended its european expansion ambitions. a source says the plan to challenge huber in the u.k., france, and germany has been paused for at least a year and that some jobs will be lost. richard branson's virgin orbit is going public and it is a deal that values the satellite company at $3.2 billion. it is expected to provide the new company wit

bill dudley, the former head of the new york fed, is on board, too. >> he's done a terrific job.iculated policy in a very clear and consistent way. i don't see any reason why he wouldn't be. >> of course, our bloomberg economics team, our washington reporter, reporting the white house has heard people are realizing the market like certainty, jay powell said a good job. it will be interest in to see if biden announces by labor day that it could be around the corner. >> coming up next, the covert outbreak surging in malaysia. aggravating the semi conductor shortage. we will bring you the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> hong kong exchange received a long-awaited clearance after asia index figures contract in collaboration with msci, giving global investors a new tool to hedge china risk. we spoke exclusively to the chairman and ceo of msci. >> there's always been a lot of talk about that with every emerging market the world, there's been a time in which the shares have been investable. there was a time in the past in which mexican chairs were called uninvestible. we have seen the