[laughter] bill dudley. can you say that, tom? tom: dudley.n: the former new york fed president, next. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. political brinksmanship on capitol hill is bringing the u.s. closer to a catastrophic fault. , kratz and republicans must decide in the next day or two how far to take their deadlock over the debt limit. senate republicans planed to block another democratic effort to raise the limit today. former u.n. ambassador nikki haley is setting the tone for a possible presidential race. in a speech at the reagan library in california, she urged republicans to return to the reagan era roots. at the same time, she defended former president trump and promised to consult with him on the 2024 race. energy prices in europe have extended their blistering rally. the regionwide supply crunch showed no signs of easing, and that has prompted the european union to promise swift action to protect the economy. dutch and u.k. natural gas futures have jumped 60% in st a few days. in hong kong, chie

jonathan: bill dudley, senior advisor to bloomberg economics and former new york fed president.s latest piece this morning , this fed is going to be late, and when it starts hiking, they will have to go quicker. we are waiting for some data in america, the adp report. here it is. michael mckee an upside surprise. michael: a nice change from adp. markets will probably react nicely to this one. 568,000 jobs in september. that is higher than the 430,000 anticipated by economists surveyed by bloomberg. 63,000 in small businesses, one hundred 15,000 in medium businesses, and large businesses adding 390,000. manufacturing, 49,000. that is one of the biggest numbers in quite some time for manufacturing from adp. service providing, 466,000. that would encompass the leisure and hospitality range, which they see as 226,000. a report like this would be well received by the markets and probably by the fed. as you remove her, jay powell said if we've got anything that is decent, the fed could go ahead and taper. so with a forecast for 488,000 jobs on friday, 500 some would be a better result