unknown unknowns are truly out of the blue events you know i think when the seem to lead calls black swans and. those those would be for example one thousand nine hundred seven where the market dropped twenty three percent in a day or or the flash crash in two thousand and ten how do you had unknown unknowns that's that's a much more difficult question the irony about current volatility pricing is that we have cheap spot vol cheap short term vol and very expensive long term vol well that environment is protecting against a crash of known unknowns it's protecting it's the next two thousand and eight but as we increasingly have these kind of. hyper speed flash crashes or events that come out of the blue and as monetary policy pushes us to kind of new regimes of risk that we may not see before the the the occurrence of unknown unknown of this might become might be might drive more of a result in that area and ironically you would rather be positioned on the front of volatility curves rather than on the back to protect against those on no no no no offense so you know in this environment what i

pleased to welcome barbara hershey to this program, the star of chicago hope, black swan, and one of my favorites, hoosiers. she now stars in once upon a time. she also just started in the lifetime project. here is a scene from once upon a time. >> glove is weakness, reggie out. it feels real now, at the start it always does. but it is an illusion. it fades in your left with nothing but power. your power indoors. -- endures. you don't have to rely on anyone to get what you want. you have ruined everything. >> i loved them. i loved him. >> i have endured this. >> clean yourself up, because now, you're going to be great. tavis: most of the fought on this show happens in the studio and the audience can see or hear it, so david says that he loves this show. i just love the fantasy, so i leaned over to you, this must be the nastiest person you have ever played and you said that there are different kinds of nasty. >> i have become a connoisseur. tavis: what is it that they are connecting to? >> i do not know, i will have to ask dave. for me, she is just extremely psychotic and passive aggr

black swan author nassim taleb.onversion to and interesting guy. >> should be an interesting conversation. >>> powerball jackpot now worth $500 million. advice forth future lucky winner, that would be me, is on the way. >>> plus, a washington insider's view on why going over the fiscal cliff might not be so bad for both sides. we will rise above, next. >>> powerball jackpot now worth >>> powerball jackpot now worth at merrill lynch, we understand the importance of your goals. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch. >>> welcome back to power lunch, i'm courtney real when a market flash. look at shares of adt corporation, the home security monitoring service. you are seeing shares trade just off the highs of the day but right now, in this day, the shares have hit the all-time

crisis of 2008 coming before the rest of us did, and he's the author of the best-selling book "the black swan" and now he has a new book called "anti-fragile." nassim taleb is joining us now. good to have you on the program. >> thank you for inviting me. >> i want to get to the book in a moment but let me start with the fiscal cliff. this is what everybody is talking about, this debt and deficits of this country. the drama is playing out. how do you think it impacts the economy? >> first thing is i don't like what i see. i noticed that the politicians don't have their head in the game. they are like two teams playing to win. we're not represented by them. they are not coming to agreement to try to win points from each other. that's not what we want. >> it is all about winning. >> we are paying the price. these people are not paying the price. absence of the game is becoming the main source of fragility in american society and of course in the world economy. >> what do you mean by this? they aren't in the game. the john boehners and the barack obamas they don't have skin in the game. >> they a

chris: the black swan. >> i totally agree with annette. if you had told me in 2008 that the whoufs would have been consumed with worry in the first term over whether greek pensioners would accept austerity measures in europe, i wouldn't have thought that. it's these promises that determine the course. chris: hubris? >> he said it in his press conference, overreach. every president since roosevelt has had this horrible second term. for someone who wants to be a transforming president, that may be a problem. chris: keep the supreme court at nine. when we come back, the big question of the week -- americans look for new frontiers, always have. americans look for new frontiers, always have. will future secondhand smoke affects everyone's health. it's not just irritating. it can cause heart disease and even death. speak up about secondhand smoke. your health and the health of your family depend on it. chris: welcome back. president kennedy was the most recent president to find a new frontier, which i wrote about. this week's big question for th

author of "the black swan," nassem taleb joins us at cnbc headquarters. he's just written a new book. we'll talk about that and get his take on the fiscal cliff and the drama playing out in washington and the markets. he has some very interesting opinions. back in a moment. >>> over president obama's first term, the federal debt to gdp ratio increased over 19%. it is projected to increase over 20% by the end of his second term. er -- you can stay in and share something... or you can get out there and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." i'm kayla tausche with a "market flash." we saw the market turn into the green following the president's remarks. that's been really good for the consumer staples sector which is to the up side by .75%.

could the storm be the pivotal moment, the black swan in the race?>> let me finish with the bottom line on this election eve, and i ask this to everybody, fair question, is obama a good president? think about it. this is "hardball," the place for politics. >>> we have got to the point where we count hours, not days. take a look at their travel schedules, for the president, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, ohio, new hampshire, virginia, and florida, of course. for governor romney, those seven state plus husband newly contested addition. he is going to virginia. zero in on today and you can see what matters most, ohio, ohio, ohio as the late tim russert would say. three stops for the president and two for mitt romney who began his morning in wisconsin, another key rust belt battleground. congressman sherrod brown knows a little about buckeye state politics, and joan walsh is managing editor of salon.com and a political analyst. senator brown, sir, you know that state. i think you look like ohio. i think you are ohio. you're the labor guy. you're a blue colla

us by surprise then known and unknown surprised and people know that they're no no no it's not a black swan so then let's let's bring the two to another one of these factors that's kind of not getting as much play as say the fiscal cliff is which is a no known the i e a so this is the west energy agency is how it's described its international energy agency it actually says it sees the you. u.s. becoming the world's biggest oil producer by two thousand and seventeen and the biggest gas producer by two thousand and fifteen becoming almost entirely energy self-sufficient by twenty thirty five which is around the corner but it's you know somewhere out there do you buy this and bigger picture what could this mean for the u.s. economy. you know i've been following natural gas and i think natural gas has been one of those stories that's been lost during this whole crisis where i think it's incredibly helpful to the u.s. we've got cheap natural gas you know the u.s. did not worry so much about being a producing nation or a manufacturing nation and through two thousand and four two thousand and seve

have pluribus unum revenue ridge fiscal dance no steps just falls think us a plan flashdance the black swan dive the mayan cliff they predicted it thousands of years ago ok and shout outs there to charlie trying again he did a lot of good ones chuck raines again. jacqueline. and a mean ben said so thanks so much you guys for weighing in and i'm just gonna have to rotate my usage of these terms because i promised you i do that there were just . so many good ones i have to give a shout out to my dad too who was texting me when we announced on the show and he liked carmageddon with with a k. i thought that was clever and i'm going to have to add one to the list too which is fiscal cliff hanger because maybe we won't know exactly what's going on with lawmakers work on the deal because of changes to access at least that's how it seems from what christine is telling me so christine what is going on with with access at a crucial time when everybody wants to know exactly what's going on with the fiscal cliff negotiations well a couple things i mean just in terms of basically what's happened today t

the black swan that swoops out of nowhere and changes everything?scarlet o'hara said, there's always tomorrow. chuck todd is nbc's political director and john heilemann is "new york magazine's" national affairs editor and an msnbc analyst. i guess that's my question to start, but let me give you this first. the president this afternoon bagged a big endorsement, new york mayor mike bloomberg, who is always interesting to watch. he cited the president's stance on climate change as the major reason. he writes, quote, one believes a woman's right to choose should be protected for future generations. one does not. that difference, given the likelihood of supreme court vacancies, weighs heavily on my decision. one recognizes marriage equality as consistent with america's march of freedom. one does not. i want our president to be on the right side of history. one sees climate change as an urgent problem. one does not. i want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics. well said by a savvy mayor of new york. he i

could the storm be the pivotal moment, the black swan in the race? let me finish with the bottom line on this election eve, and i ask this to everybody, fair question, is obama a good president? think about it. this is "hardball," the place for politics. >>> we've got some new polls as we enter the final week of the campaign. in ohio a brand new cnn poll shows president obama with a 3-point lead over mitt romney, but it is the all-important 50% marker, so it's 50%/47%. good for obama. in new hampshire a new poll from new england college finds president obama with a 6-point lead. that's solid. 50%/44%. in wisconsin a new poll from st. norbert college has the president up 9, 52%/43%. that's a surprise. here is a poll from that hot senate race in indiana. i love this one. joe donnelly of notre dame has an 11-point lead over richard mourdock with the libertarian candidate at 6%. speaking for the democrats, of course. we'll be right back. ♪ so you went right back to the pathfinder's essence, kept its dna, and created the next-gen s.u.v. starting with a dr

a follow-up to the best selling book "the black swan." it's titled, "antifragile: things that gain from disorder." james t. patterson in "the 'of destruction: how 1965 transformed america." in "the famine plot: england's role in ire rapid's greatest tragedy," pat coogan. eleanor jones harvey interprets a czech of paintings and photography about the civil war awith text by famous authors of the time. in "counting one's blessings: the selected letters of queen brit, the queen mother," william shawcross provides a collection of letters written by queen elizabeth i. kevin phillips argues that the turning point for the american revolution was actually in 1775 rather than 1776 in "1775: a good year for revolution." look for these titles in bookstores this coming week and watch for the authors in the near future on booktv and on booktv.org. >> you've been

whose work focuses on probability and uncertainty provide a followup to his best-selling book the black swan. is titled antifragile, things the gained from disorder. james patterson examines how political and social changes in the u.s. reshaped the country over the course of a single year in the eve of destruction:how

. >> not black swans. >> these are gray bunz -- ones. we are muddling through.nese operation is growing 12 to 13% against the average of the company which is around 3%. middle eastern crisis, iran and israel, whether there will be attack on iranian nuclear installations very difficult to predict. last and most importantly the u.s., not just the fiscal cliff, the debt, $16 of debt and dealing with the deficit how that will play outpost the election . a lot of people are hoping the president will focus on his legacy and will be more accommodating and seek agreement. but the initial indications have not been as positive as perhaps some thought. >> but you said as we were waiting to chat that it's not just that the president in your view needs to be more friendly towards the business community but the business community also needs to work with the president. >> i think it would be arow gant on the business community to say it is the president's fault. any relationship is two-way. i think the general atmosphere is important. if there is felt to be a lack of respect o

economists pointed out a financial crisis are not black swans. rare events, accidents. rather, they are like white swans. they occur frequently and economic crisis fair the same basic characteristics. exuberance snow balling indebt edness, panic. if i -- financial crises are like white swans, do we have to it is -- except them as an inescapable part of capitalism? i do not think so. they come at a tremendous cost, the destruction of the real economy of jobs and wealth. to prevent the next crisis from happening, there are two essential points we can and must do. most importantly, putting reliability back together. that is the fundamental mechanism of capitalism, after all. we must ensure transparency on financial markets. curb bonus payments because they create perverse incentives for speculation on short-term gains. we must get risky financial -- [unintelligible] there are problems we can and must tackle together. our economies are closely interlinked the problems in one market can be contagious. europe is making progress in introducing -- 11 countries already signed up

swans a swimming' at $7,000. still to come, after years of being behind, why americans are finally playing catch-up with their finances. that's later. but first, black friday and cyber monday... today is give- back tuesday. the leader of the red cross joins us next for the latest on american generousity. we'll be back. the red cross is hoping that between hurricane sandy and the campaign donations that americans are not 'gived out,' and that tuesday serves to remind us to give to charity. with us is gail mcgovern, ceo of the american red cross. gail, what's the status of things since the superstorm? > > first of all, the american red cross responded to hurricane sandy, and i want to say that my heart goes out to those who were impacted by this horrible storm. and the american public has been so generous: we've served 7.3 million meals, provided 5 million relief items, served 40,000 turkey dinners on thanksgiving - all done with the work of 13,000 people, 90% of whom are volunteers. > a recent poll showed that three out of four people who made donations to people affected by the big storm plan to give again at the end of this year, but overall, sligh