largo at black swan drive still have the road blocked because of a downed tree.ound 95 a little slow in maryland inbound and outbound bw parkway a little slow as well. >>> 6:54. and a warmer start to the day. >> like the sound of that. chuck bell is covering your commute this morning in montgomery county. chuck, good morning. what are you seeing? >> reporter: we're on 270 southbound just past the exit for montrose road getting in closer to the capital beltway. and the fog which was a little bit thicker during the early hours of the morning is now not quite as much of a problem so that's good news. 48 degrees here. the roads are wet due to light rain overnight. so take a little bit easy on the drive in first thing this morning. our current speed here on 270 southbound is right at about 35 to 40 miles per hour. pretty typical for a wednesday morning commute. back into you, aaron, on this beautiful hump day. >> i did post the camel video. i was in the mood for that. 6:55. today we'll learn whether costco can build what would be the busiest gas station in montgomery

tom: do you agree that it's a black swan world?, you've got people who are very smart being a -- paying close attention to very fast-moving information. when things start to go wrong it can go very fast will stop tom -- it can go very fast. tom: and that underscores passive investing. can we spend like six hours with these guys? olivia: we've got to bail. being a force for good is what we will discuss next with our guest hosts. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. it is a fed day. olivia and brendan are fired up from what we see at 2:00. olivia: i could barely sleep. that's why i broke up -- woke up at 3:00 a.m. benjamin netanyahu is celebrating a big election victory. they survived a challenge from their main rival. and investors will be listening closely to the fed policy meeting. it may raise interest rate as early as june. and the secret service as an envelope tentatively testing positive for sign i'd never reached the white house. a separate screening facility intercepted it more tests are being done. i hear this did actually go thr

do you follow that strategy of trying to prepare for these black swans?a lot of hedges and the skew index is elevated. they are seeing volatility come back into the horizon. when you look at the april futures, it was 18 before the market opened. a bunch of investors saw that volatility in april will be around 18. >> i want to talk around qualcomm. they raised the dividend more than estimated. they came in with a buyback. are we seeing the planned -- demand for playback -- qualcomm. >> the calls are being traded. there is a natural fire out there. the company itself they are yielding more the need ten-year treasury. they can borrow for less than that and buy back their own stock. the best way investors can play it is by a bunch of calls and watch it go up. >> i want to talk about apple and the watch yesterday. the stock is at a one-month low. you've got a trade for us on apple. >> you can turn it into a bond. you can go to jail where he and they'll the 120 and collect an outside call. you can participate for $3.35. it gives you a 5.5% yield. you've got $30

but inside the firm, what they're describing this as, a black swan event. something you never thought would happen. who ever thought bill gross the firm that he founded, would leave and the assets would evaporate. i mean, everyone thought he would retire there. liz: is there a direct correlation to the fact that their bonuses are down? direct correlation. charlie: yeah, yeah, yeah. they were tied. i mean, this is pretty simple math. the stock -- internal stock -- they were given options over the past three to five years. not last year. but last three to five years. given options on a privately traded pimco stock. they're not publicly traded. aliance is. >> this total return fund, it's trying to make its way back. maybe this is very temporary. charlie: well, from what i understand, the compensation loss is not temporary. liz: okay. charlie: the options have expired. liz: doesn't make the guys feel better that aren't getting their bonuses. charlie: the company is making some efforts to make up for it. they're paying some cash bonuses. this is a big thing. bil

largo road at black swan road the road blocked because of some downed wires.they're on t the scene. gw parkway from turkey run to memorial bridge crews filling pothole. so rolling road work. canal still shut down between reservoir and foxhall. avoid canal if you possibly wide look at things overall not bad here as you're taking a big look at the beltway. not having any major issues. 66 looking good 95 already slow headed north through dale city. back with a live picture of that problem spot there along 95. >>> it's 5:53. a new study shows that retailers are not doing everything they can to prevent cyber attacks. landon dowdy joins us with more on what is at stake here. >> good morning. a new study by verizon finds 80% of the world's retailers are falling short in ensuring their card payment systems are secure increasing the arriving of sign of cyber attacks. most only upgrade their systems when they approach an am check. facebook wants to help advisers find out what brands people are talking about. it's giving marketers data showing what topics are being discu

enforcement at the local and federal level unfortunately although they're uncommon, they're not these black swanfunction of the news cycle and social media than anything and the secret service is definitely in the spotlight. >> i don't know what's better, knowing about it or not knowing in the past. bus your point is well taken. what i worry about is one or both of these guys are going back to be on duty or just off for the day and getting their car and getting out of town. >> well, on the personal side of this, have very close relationships with a lot of people. one of these alleged agents as well. i don't anybody confirmed anything. we have to ask yourselves a serious question in a society where things like this can go viral quickly, this guy is one of the best agents, i'm telling you i've ever worked with. i mean the best of the best of the best. i don't want to date him. i'm telling you about his operational skill. not his personality. >> i'm sure most of these guys and i do not mean to besmirch them but i add up the indenes, the drone on the front lawn of the white house, the fence jumper w

it appears to be a black swan event. guy who successfully kills 150 people. >> yeah. and, too, he's passed all of these tests, psychological tests, obviously, talent ones. not everyone can actually fly a plane. you hope that just the talent part will weed some of those people out. but that's, obviously, not the case. do i think this will happen much in the future? t not probable. it's not probable. but nothing is unlikely. as you see here, no one anticipated this. so, yeah, since 9/11 we've built all these safeguards into flying to make sure things like won't happen, but it's like for each safeguard, you need another one, and then you need another one. >> yeah. kennedy: that's exactly it. you make the point, the law of unintended consequences because you do one thing, and then you have to do 15 other things when the consequences bear themselves out. >> well, you go back to the those shootings, and they were all in gun-free zones. even the batman shooting was at a theater that guaranteed there would be less guns than anyw

and to make these type of unexpected black swan events they can send oil price spiking very, very high can bring the global economy to its knees can make them much less relevant. how we can inoculate ourselves, if ulyou will to a region we cannot control and we can't stabilize no matter how much blood and treasure we wish to commit to the effort. i think to that end we need to focus on the transportation fuel market. because oil strategic importance derives from its virtual monopoly over transportation fuel. the fact that almost all of our transportation fuel is petroleum based means that when oil prices spike, moving people and goods from one place to another which is, after all, the engine that moves the global economy, becomes very much more expensive. and that means that every single service and good that we consume becomes a lot more expensive. and so much like years ago salt was a strategic commodity because it was the only way to preserve food, so war was caused over salt, and countries decided where to place colonies due to where there was an abundance of salt. today oil is a s

>> at me acknowledge the fact i am introducing a black swan. all of this data is great until that all leaks. we haven't seen a company beaten up too badly as result of these deletes although i will say for every record it leaks it cost the company $206. that's $206 to investigate the leak, call in an outside consultant, plug the hole notify the customers can replace the credit card $5.11 each. bring npr crisis management firm, defend the lawsuits. higher outside counsel customers turn and then director and shareholder losses that come as well. if target loses 109 records at $206 each, that's not chump change. i think that people will start think about this differently potentially. i talked in "future crimes" about solutions at a social level, societal level and solutions at an individual level. at a social level i talked about one of the solutions is we need a manhattan project for sauber. that is militarized but has intention bring together public-private sector that assure so focused on it at that level. if the software industry, the people t

we have to keep the black swan in mind that the regional conflict exploding into a much broader conflictike that does so the seeds for a potential spike if we see a disruption in the flow of oil. what we know right now is the fundamental supply extremely outweighing demand spells lower oil prices with the caveat that we have to become a sent of a broader -- we have to be cognizant of a broader regional disorder. olivia: the could become a base for piracy and could rattle the markets. finally, why did nobody see $50 oil coming? it obviously appears to be a supply side driven collapse. we have had stories of how the u.s. will have the world's largest energy producer by 2020. stephen: you are absolutely right that we were headed in this direction. no one saw it happening this fast. it was an absolute massive pullback. it is a supply because of the point you just made. we have been growing supply here in the u.s. and around the globe for the last two or three years. it is hard for me to fathom the all of a sudden we woke up in october and said there is too much supply in the market. this is

these are black swan events, they don't happen often, when they do happen in the past we didn't have social media, there wasn't a 24-hour news cycle and there wasn't a laser like focus on the secret service which we see now because of the scandals in the past couple of years. so they are not more prevalent, these incidents it's just the public is hearing about them and it seem a lot worse. i'm not trying to diminish the graft of them i'm saying you're hearing about them. any organization is going to have problems and the secret service is certainly not immune to that. >> clearly not as we've seen despite the ven nerable reputation. as you look at the embarrassment factor, it's high, but so far we haven't seen anything that put the president's life at risk, that put his family ace life at risk in any serious way. i guess the question would be is that where the culture of the secret service is heading or are there a lot of folks in the secret service who say look thing happen, some folks go off the reservation, but in the end our mission is still the same and so far we've done a good j

there's always been a black swan event court ruling saying this is forced by the courts but otherwisekely to come here anytime soon. >> let me back up a bit, then craig. in some ways with the apple announcement -- i have comcast at home. they're in my area and i'm an employee obviously but i also use apple tv. hd my switcher. right? is it already happening with apple television and apps in a whip that's unbundling around the end of it? >> yes and no. you know look there's three levels of bundle that go on inside of the content bundle, if you will. so individual shows are bundled into networks. then networks are bundled together into a media con clop conglomerate and they're repack achd as a subscriber. you're seeing bundling on the front end. netflix unbundling shows from networks and from the other end. apple has a deal with everyone other than disney sling tv another one of those services has deal that includes disney but not viacom. so the media conglomerates are getting unbundled from each other. you're not seeing unbundling of the networks within one of the media conglomerates. a

>> let me just acknowledge the fact that i'm introducing a black swan here, right?this data is great until it all leaks, right? and we haven't seen a company beaten up too besidely as a result of these data leaks although for every record that leak, it costs the company $206 that's $206 to investigate the leak, call in outside consultants, plug the hole, buy new equipment notify their customers, replace their credit cards at $5.11, bring in pr crisis management firms, defend the lawsuits, hire outside counsel, watch their stock share slide, customer turn and then the regulatory and shareholder lawsuits that come as well. so if target loses 100 million records at $206 each that's not chump change. so i think that people will start thinking about this differently, potentially. as to the solutions, i talk in future crimes about solutions at a social level, societal level and solutions at an individual level. at the social level, i already talked about one of the solutions is we need a manhattan project for cyber. not something that's militarized, but something that has

that really spooked everybody about technology and notwithstanding some black swan event, you don't havee. i don't think you have -- this whole sort of comparison around -- we talked about it earlier -- of nasdaq 5,000 as a bugaboo because we remember the last time it hit 5,000, i understand the human impulse but 15 years later, i think i'm repeating myself but if we're still in a bubble, then it's a 15-year bubble that failed to pop because we're exactly where we were 15 years ago. >> but that's 15 years ago. that number needs to be 7,000 today to even -- >> that's right. >> but where we look for bubbles, history echoes and mark cuban i thought started a very important debate this week about bubbles and a lot of it is in the private equity and venture capital side. the number of companies worth $1 billion or more that haven't gone public. there are bubbles but it may not be in the nasdaq. >> or it might be in what you look at in terms of wine and art. >> see if the strong dollar pokes any of them. thanks, everybody. usually getting kicked out of a club is not a good thing but with apple