two other black swans died in the last eight days but they both tested negative for the virus. they will send samples from all three birds to a lab for further tests. there are no reports of the virus spreading to humans, but the zookeepers are taking precaution. they say they will close facilities where visitors have direct contact with birds. >> translator: we'll do everything we can, including disinfecting the area to prevent the virus spreading to other animals and outside the zoo. >> localal facilities will chec for dead wild birds within a ten-mile kilometer radius around the zoo. 650 kilometers away are taking preventative measures. yokohama is home to four zoos. the operators of zoo asia are asking visitors to walk on disinfectant soap mats before entering. they're keeping the visitors away from pheasants and wild ducks. >> translator: we decided to cancel bird shows for the time being. >> and they canceled events to mark the coming of the zodiac rooster. farms else where in japan after some birds tested positive for avian flu. you can call it a global report card. it's

. >> darren aronofsky, director of the films "pi," "requiem for a dream," "the wrestler," "black swanlocation, "noah." he asked me if he could go along on a trip with us. i said where do you want to go. >> madagascar, i knew almost nothing about it. i knew it was an animated film i've seen a lot of times in my car. >> i guess it's one of the more extreme, distant places that you hear about that you'll never go to unless something weirdly summons you. you're sort of that weird force. >> we're on an island in the indian ocean with this amazing ethnic mix, an incredible landscape. something like 80% of the animals here don't exist anywhere else. >> what does it mean when an ecosystem goes out of balance? what is the blowback? here, you can see the blowback. the people have been chopping down the forests, and so you don't have soil anymore, and you can't grow anything anymore. it's a really [ muted ] situation. there we go. there we go. >> an important question. you are a vegetarian. >> yes. and it just sort of happened with the release of "noah." in scripture he is a vegetarian as was ad

someone whois by wrote the black swan. you can google it. it is an intellectual you idiot. it is the most useful single article i have ever yet -- ever read. people who are really good at .aking tests and writing essays that gets them into elite colleges where they take classes from professors who are really good at taking tests and writing essays. when they take tests and write essays, they have good grades. so then they can continue to take tests and write essays. you probably these people as they do not know anything. they could write a brilliant essay on how to change a tire, but if you say my car has a flat, they would not know how to change the tire. this is the best expiration of what i have been dealing with. explains 80% of the state department. these are very very erudite people. their intellectuals, but they are idiots. trump is not a financier. he is a builder. if you build a building, it has to stand up very it is a very important principle. the realityd with that you have been governed by people in both parties who would not have a clue how to build a building

we've been talking about black swan's not being black swans for 2016.t are you most concerned about for 2017? is it risk in europe? >> it is the populist movement. we saw in 2016 with brexit, trump coming in, recently the italian referendum. ,e have elections in holland potential a tie in elections come france, germany. if we start to see the populist movement come in one alone probably can cause a lot of problems, but if they all come across, then it could cause us issues. populism one fact. the other what will happen to the emerging markets space off the strength of the dollar. you can see right there how emerging stocks have gotten cheaper versus developed markets. what is your take on where emerging markets will go from here? >> we have seen them get cheaper since the election. the emerging markets will have to deal with raising rates in the u.s. him a but that is quite a popular, crowded trade. close will come out of the u.s. -- sorry, out of emerging markets into the u.s. as rates rise. however if you historically look at the correlation, if the u

swan, i should say. they are easier to spot than blacks bond but pose a risk to the markets. hy 2017 could be the year of the gray swan shocks. guy. guy: i think you could see a gray swan in london. i think one could fly right by but you would not know it was there. they could be harder to spot than we think they are. shaping up for the markets on this gloomy day before barbara arrives tomorrow in london, this is how european markets are. we are not doing very much at the moment, as you can see, on the downside. matt is warming up to hoodies. do you think that is a good idea? hoodiesor jackets? -- or jackets? this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the european market open. i'm matt miller in berlin. guy johnson alongside be in london. i thought they were building a bleachers here in front of the brandenburg gate to watch a christmas concert. guy: matt, matt. honestly, we don't use that word over here. seating, or something like that. matt: but bleachers, that is like the benches you use to watch some sort of event. guy: i know that. matt: i've just been informed, they are

this could be one of those black swan events.got news of this and we are down 11 points, not a lot but this could easily escalate something akin to what we had when soldiers and sailors were captured by the iranians, the coast of iran and it doesn't look like something like that and that could explain why the loss in stocks has been nominal and the gain has been nominal. it comes at a time when much of the world and certainly our political theater has been around what the russians did, not so much attention to china but president-elect donald trump has said china is his real worry, not so much the russians. how that pans out when the president of the united states addresses reporters for the last time, you can imagine quite a few things have changed and been added. we will hear from the president soon. we have not heard at all from the president-elect on any of this but we likely will a little later on. trish regan following that and more. we are going to take a quick break but i do want to stress that these losses, these are nom

. ♪ emily: he is known for shunning convention, taking massive risks, and investing in black swans, companiesith a near complete chance of failure. if they succeed, the world will be changed forever. vinod khosla grew up in india. his parents agreed he could explore his curiosity these with no limits as his grades didn't suffer. he began by founding sun microsystems. he then became a venture capitalist. he helps entrepreneurs take the same risks he has no fear of taking. joining me today on "bloomberg studio 1.0," vinod khosla. thank you so much for being here. it is great to have you. vinod: great to be here. emily: you are known for being an investor who not only challenges conventional wisdom, you explode it. how early do that start? vinod: one of the privileges you get if you succeed early, and luck counts a lot, is the ability to do things others may not have the freedom to do. i used it to my advantage early. i was always interested in radical change, big ideas. i got the opportunity to do that. emily: you were raised in delhi, india. what might we find a young vinod doing? vinod: i did

. ♪ ♪ emily: he is known for shunning convention, taking massive risks, and investing in black swans,h a near complete chance of failure. if they succeed, the world will be changed forever. vinod khosla grew up in india. he was the son of an officer in the indian army. his parents agreed he could curiosity with no limits, as long as his grades didn't suffer. he began by founding sun microsyste

. >> you u know, it can be the black swan event: low probability of occurrence but high impact. >> today, 6 million americans live withihin 10 miles o of a nuclelear plant and 120 millionn live within 50 miles. but nobody can buy private insurance against damage to their property because of a radiation leak or other consequences of a nuclear accident. [majestic mumusic playaying] the nuclear indudustry was b bon in the 1950s when n the u.s. government was determined to promote the civilian use of nuclear energy. president dwight d. eisenhower had a dream: he called it "atoms for peace." >> s so my country'ss purpose is to help us move ouout of the dak chahamber of horrors into the light, to ffind a way by whicich the mindsds of men, the h hopes of men,n, the souls of memen everyrywhere can move forwaward toward peace and hapappiness and well-being. it is not enenough to take this weapon out of the handsds of the ldiers. itit must t be put into the hands of thosose who will kw how to strip its military casing and adapt it to the e arts of peacece. >> nunuclear power was to beneft mankind,

. ♪ emily: he is known for shunning convention, taking massive risks, and investing in black swans, companiesey succeed, the world will be changed forever. vinod khosla grew up in india. his parents agreed he could explore his curiosity these with no limits as his grades didn't suffer. he began by founding sun microsystems. he then became a venture capitalist. he helps entrepreneurs take the same risks he has no fear of taking. joining me today on "bloomberg

the article is by nasim taleb, who wrote "the black swan." you can google it iyi. it is intellectual, yet idiot, the most useful single article. he says, at least 40% of the governing elites worldwide are people that are really good at taking tests and writing essays, which gets them into elite colleges where they take classes from professors who are really good at taking tests and writing essays and so when they take tests an write essays, they get really good grades so the professor places them with a judge, newsroom or bureaucracy so they can continue to take tests and write essays. the only problem with these people is they don't know anything. they could write a brilliant essay on how to change a tire. if you showed up and said, my car has a flat, they would not know how to change the tire. this was the best explanation of what i have been dealing with. it explains 80% of the state department. these are very, very arrow diet people that are idiots. they are intellectuals but idiots. one of the great thing about trumpism. he is not a finance sear. trump is a bu

. >> but there's like, is there like a black swan ability to you know -- you can predict say mark's ability to pay. but if this external event, like the asteroid hits, he may not be able to pay that. how do you factor that in? >> that you got to get another way. >> fair enough, will lansing is the ceo of fico, who knew, is a silicon valley company. will, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >>> up next, inside one of silicon valley's most promising dna labs when "press: here" continues. >>> every barracuda appliance, every barracuda piece of software is constantly being update. as new threats occur, we're going to update our customers and allow them to be protected against those new threats. >> to learn more about barracuda networks, visit them at barracuda.com. >>> welcome back to "press: here." there are amazing things happening in genetic research right here in silicon valley. researchers and scientists working nearly around the clock. beaten in their industriousness only by the technicians in the lab. because the lab workers can work all day every day around the clock counsyl's workforc

could that be a black swan, and extraneous barrel that could going intoopec deal next year question ricktt: i think some of the producers if you look at the three conference calls remember the same thing, visibility, the outlook -- for what it is worth, jpmorgan 700 millionaverage can seeper day, but we that we have plus or -2000 barrels to that. turkey still to come -- kept rates unchanged, but gdp fell. we have reaction from ankara. this is bloomberg. ♪ "thef: welcome back to best of bloomberg markets: middle east are come -- "the central-bank best of bloomberg markets: middle east." turkey central bank kept rates the same this week. we asked why the bank stayed put. from yesterday, it is obvious the turkish central bank is worried about the sharp slowdown in growth. that is thought to be the reason all of itse to keep key interest rate unchanged. which is defying the market expectations for a hike. there was a slowdown in following the failed military coup attempt in july. also, there was the turkish central bank yesterday as a ,ounterforce of the week lire and that is basically what

could that be a black swan?aybe the variable that could the real the plan going into -- derail the plan going into next year? scott darling: i think some of the producers, if you look at the conference calls, they said the same thing about visibility and the outlook. jpmorgan forecasts 700,000 barrels a day for libyans and their output next year. yousef: still to come on the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." turkey kept rates unchanged this week and is gdp fell for the first time in seven years. we have reaction, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." turkey's central bank kept all interest rates unchanged this week. it is at the present overnight, and the borrowing rate is at 7.25%. we asked onur ant why they stayed put? onur ant: it is obvious that the turkish central bank is worried about the slowdown in growth, that is thought to be the reason why they chose to keep the interest rates unchanged yesterday, a surprise. it is defining market e

could that be a black swan, an extraneous variable into next year?: a law of us have limited visibility. if you look at the three conference calls, we heard the same thing about visibility in outlook. for what it is worth, jp morgan forecasts 700,000 barrels per day for libyan output. but we have plus or -200,000 to that. turkey still to come, unexpectedly kept rates unchanged. we have the reaction from ingres coming up. -- from ankara coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets: middle east." the turkish central bank unexpectedly kept all three of its interest rates unchanged. the overnight lending rate at 8.5%, the borrowing rate at 7.25%. we asked why the bank stayed put? >> it is obvious the turkish central bank is worried about a sharp slowdown in growth. that is formed to be the reason be the reasonto to keep all of the key interest rates unchanged today. turkeyd remind you that last week announced a first contraction in seven years due to a slowdown in consumption and investment, following the militar

. - i'm a black swan. wayne: you're a black swan. i love that movie.

they have been exempt from the opec agreement in terms of cutting or freezing -- could that be a black swanriable that could derail the opec plan going into next year? >> i think a lot of us have limited visibility. some of the producers, if you look at the conference calls, total said the same thing about the outlook. for what it's worth, jpmorgan forecast an average of 700,000 barrels per day but we have plus or -200,000 for that. angie: supply is one thing, what about demand? more on theis lighter side in terms of global , because if you take our oil forecast, then we have last elasticity at the pump and we will start to feel it. angie: what about china, though? china's growth is around 2% to 3% in terms of product demand. it was 5% or so last year. gasoline surprised us a lot with low single digits -- this is actually the worst growth of gasoline since 2006 in china. we are forecasting a little bit of improvement but overall the demand picture is similar next year to what we are seeing this year. angie: so it really is a surprise story. thank you so much for joining us. that was got dar

. >>> well, it's been nearly the oscar for her role in "black swan." and now, more oscar buzz for her portrayal of jackie kennedy in "jackie." >> we had the pleasure to sit down with the actress and director to talk about the film. >> you ready? >> of course. >> you remember governor and mrs. connolly. >> welcome to dallas, darling. >> thank you so much. >> i was telling you, i grew up in texas. and i remember moving to the northeast for the first time in philadelphia. and people said, you're from the place that killed of all of it, still so fresh. what pressure were you under to capture jackie kennedy? >> she does represent so much to the american people. her and jfk. and of course, you want to do them justice. but also, you're trying to portray human beings. i think that was nice about the approach. that it was trying to look at them as people, not as icons. english-speeching film that you're directing. and you picked a topic that is so iconic to us in the country. did that add extra pressure to it? >> well, yeah. it's a lot of pressure. but it's an

the black swan event we were worried about is think about having a hillary clinton presidency, a democrat senate run by chuck schumer and a democrat house ran by nancy pelosi. that was the horrible scenario i was trying to guard against. that was the default break the glass, stop that from happening. we had a 30-seat majority. we won 63 seats in 2014. the democrats won 31 seats in 2008. so these things can switch back and forth fairly easily. so my goal was protect house republicans. at the end we were excited about the ability to close this race as a unified republican ticket, a unified republican party so that we could have unified republican government which now we're not worried. we're looking forward and we're excited about getting this agenda implemented. >> and you said in "60 minutes" you take every day. >> yeah. >> tell me about those conversations. >> it's all about personnel and policy. every conversation we have, to me, you have to know how exciting this is for us. we've been fighting barack obama for eight years. this has been really -- >> mr. speaker, i warned the country ab

and when you look at this administration, what are the things that concern you and the possible black swannts that we could see that would be truly disruptive? jamie: if you look at the geopolitical trends, and we made at a list of all the big one since world war ii, korea, vietnam, afghanistan, iran, iraq, china had a border skirmish with russia, india and pakistan, china and vietnam, i am missing a bunch, only one derailed the global economy. the others had an effect. vietnam had a huge effect, but only one, and it was the 1973 middle east crisis that derailed the economy. geopolitics is always noisy, but with little effect. from normal friction, it is it better or worse? it's probably worse. there are more wars in the middle east. more and more uncertainty around the nuclear risk, because of iran, russia, north korea. north korea has a bomb and will soon be able to deliver it to california. that is not my assessment. that is the assessment of top people in the government, two years or so. that is a serious issue for the world, but i worry obviously about that, and peace in the middle ea

>> obviously it would be the black swan event that by definition sis unpredictable.he risk of international events that russian tanks moving into kiev, china attacking u.s. warship. there are things that could happen around the world that would clearly be bad and would make the market shaky and hit the areas that have done the best. financials would not react well to something like that. >> charles, you mentioned financials. and sectors have been in close focus during this rally because it seemed like there really hasn't been a rotation into the market sort of as a net effect. it's moving money around between sectors. what sectors would you be in right now given that fact of the market right now? >> i'm glad you brought that up. people talk about the market. it's been very different reaction. so you have to just remember that the overpriced stocks were the safe stocks. bond substitutes. consumer staples trading at 24 times earnings. high yielding stocks. what was very cheap were the more cyclical stocks. the financials, the banks, the industrials. that has reversed a

the black swan event we were worried about is think about having a hillary clinton presidency, a democrat senate run by chuck schumer and a democrat house ran by nancy pelosi. that was the horrible scenario i was trying to guard against. that was the default break the glass, stop that from happening. we had a 30-seat majority. we won 63 seats in 2014. the democrats won 31 seats in 2008. so these things can switch back and forth fairly easily. so my goal was protect house republicans. at the end we were excited about the ability to close this race as a unified republican ticket, a unified republican party so that we could have unified republican government which now we're not worried. we're looking forward and we're excited about getting this agenda implemented. >> and you said in "60 minutes" you take every day. >> yeah. >> tell me about those conversations. >> it's all about personnel and policy. every conversation we have, to me, you have to know how exciting this is for us. we've been fighting barack obama for eight years. this has been really -- >> mr. speaker, i warned the country ab

liz: calling donald trump a white swan, not a black swan event. right, you guys want to know mine? yeah? yes, liz, we do. [laughter] okay. number one, snapchat -- actually, no, let me go to yellen. janet yellen will stay. that's my prediction, because donald transfer will probably meet -- donald trump will probably meet with her, and i believe that janet yellen and donald trump will possibly hit it off. we'll see if i'm right on that. and then number two, snapchat will go public. and it will thrill and then chill. why? because people will realize how frightening it is to see charlie gasparino and i do the dog tongues -- [laughter] and that's about it. [laughter] that's about it. and whatever that creature is. and charlie's not here with us today, but i sure wish he was because, guess what? we're going to show some real best of 2016 that involves him. teddy, chris, alan, happy new year. thanks for being such troopers. >>> and as i said, the special year-end edition of wall street week, that's tonight at 8 p.m. eastern. and coming up, our year-ender

there's this great -- until then there was only one unexpected development, one black swan intervention that could shift the curve of rising global oil demand which, obviously, exxon enjoys. those are my words. a decision by governments to limit greenhouse gas emissions by heavily taxing or capping the use of carbon-based fuels. i mean, is that a fair estimation? i mean, this -- that issue, because of what it could do to the oil -- >> guest: right. >> host: -- is what really, really kind of had them shaking in their boots. >> guest: i think it got their attention. i think it was a combination of how it was a rare existential threat. the reason we were talking about before. they had overcome the previous systematic threats to oil production in the world which were spills and environmental damage and the seepage of oil into water and drinking supplies and air pollution. all of that had been more or less brought into a sustainable compact of regulator and regulated. and they had themselves adapted. they had accepted the validity of these environmental goals when it comes to spills and air

you know, we talk about black swans in the business of finance. refer to donald trump as the orange swan. >> boy. >> we've had an orange swan event. first chance tax reform, first chance at deregulation, first chance at getting a health care system that may be better and more accommodative for people and can actually work. this was a surprise, an orange swan, but it's a happy surprise from the business standpoint. i think that's why stocks have done so well. >>ing to overall market conversation. we asked at the top of the show, i'm going to you first, pete. dow 20,000 which is in striking distance. >> striking. >> it's a warning sign or a sign of even greater things to come. what do you think? >> i would think that people are just looking at it as a number. i know the desk we've talked about it time and time again. 20,000 is just a number. it's still a big round number that everybody wants to look at and use as that gauge, right? just like 10,000 was years ago. 20,000 is there again. is it a pause? it's probably a pause, quite frankly, i think, if

i expected something about brexit or donald trump, the two big black swan events of the year. bank that toxic. this story from september. asan defends deutsche bank some clients pair back exposure. they had the strongest balance sheet they have had in 20 years. since that story came out september 30, shares were up 8% before they started trading this morning. now they are up about 12%. guy: for next year, this could be the chart watch. this is the france-german. how wide does that get next year ? as we have been hearing, low probability, high impact event. that is marine le pen. coming upeillance is next. you have a very merry christmas. that wraps it up from the open scene. and he to come on bloomberg-daybreak live on digital on the radio. we run you through the last day of trading before christmas. ♪ mark: a deal before christmas. budget night at credit suisse -- deutsche bank and credit suisse settled the mortgage probe. fighting charges, suggesting a bank is willing to take his chances with the trump administration. we have the latest. plus, the italian rescue job. the sta

that concernthings you and what are the possible black swan events?ou look at the geopolitical events since world vietnam, iraq, china had a border skirmish with russia. pakistan, india, i am missing whole bunch. vietnam had a huge effect, but only one will the economy. geopolitics is always very noisy and really has an effect. i would say, is it better or worse, probably a little worse. in the middle east, a lot of uncertainty around the nuclear's are the greatest risks that are going to threaten mankind. and theyea has a bomb are soon going to be able to deliver it all the way to california. it is not my assessment, it is the assessment of top people in the government. they might have two years or so. that is a serious issue for the world. i worry obviously about that, and peace in the middle east. what i'm worry about most in reality is bad policy, as doing things that make it worse like government shutdowns and not fixing the school system. if you wanted to get worse, do not fix the school system. that would be worse for the world than honest anyt

my biggest fears, the black swan event we were worried about was think of having a hillary clinton presidencydemocrat senate run by chuck schumer and a democrat house run by nancy pelosi. that to me was the horrible scenario i was trying to guard against. that was our default, break the glass, top it from happening. those things can happen. we had a 30-seat majority. we won 63 seats in 2014, the democrats won 31 seats in 2008. so these things can switch back and forth fairly -- back and forth fairly easily, so my goal was to protect the house republicans. at the end we were excited about the ability to close this race as a unified republican ticket, a unified republican party, so we could have unified republican government, which now we're not worried. we're not looking backwards, we're looking forward and excited about getting the agenda implemented. >> you said in 60 minutes you talk to him every day. >> yeah. >> tell me, what are the conversations like? >> it is all about personnel and policy. every conversation we have -- to me, you know how exciting this is for us. we have been fighting

book of"black swan" 2017, 1 of the big calls is by italian banks.s you point out, if you go back and read those over the last few years, the big outliers have turned out to be true. rublet year we had the and brazilian market. last year we said the emerging market was the very thing you did not want to trust. saying --ear, we are and i think it is kind of a deduction of crisis as well because what we are really arguing is that the italian banking sector is at such a level, vis-a-vis the brexit talk. that can force italian banks into a situation that will spill into the rest of the european banking sector. one of the most vulnerable will be the german sector, forcing germany to cave into a more supportive role. er since outperform or the italian referendum. >> which proved again this was not the story about the fundamentals. not,er you like it or whether you are liberal or not we have to agree that germany's policies are taking europe apart. if you look at what merkel has been saying, she very much believes in a eurozone. she wants to be the one who

a i think there is possibility, always, of a black swan -- some foreign-policy crisis we do not anticipatete today. came into office, expected to do many things, and 9/11 happened. unexpected is really the biggest risk. david: we are now joined by marty shanker, our executive editor -- senior executive editor for government and politics. he is joining us from washington. if you listen to the newsmakers, it sounds like you will be pretty busy, given your title -- there will be a lot on your platter to cover. when we were trying to put together this year's pessimist guide to 2017, we had a hard time because a lot of things we thought were black swans were quite possible, including north korea and some of the other things that illustrious group of people mentioned before i came on. david: and some of those geopolitical risks originate in washington, it has to do with the trunk administration, working with the new republican congress -- what might happen with things like trade, things like taxes, things like that. marty: i think that is the number one unknown, and while the markets, especially

someone whois by wrote the black swan. you can google it. it is an intellectual you idiot. it is the most useful single article i have ever yet -- ever read. people who are really good at .aking tests and writing essays that gets them into elite colleges where they take classes from professors who are really good at taking tests and writing essays. when they take tests and write essays, they have good grades. so then they can continue to take tests and write essays. you probably these people as they do not know anything. they could write a brilliant essay on how to change a tire, but if you say my car has a flat, they would not know how to change the tire. this is the best expiration of what i have been dealing with. explains 80% of the state department. these are very very erudite people. their intellectuals, but they are idiots. trump is not a financier. he is a builder. if you build a building, it has to stand up very it is a very important principle. the realityd with that you have been governed by people in both parties who would not have a clue how to build a building

. >> i think there is the possibility always of a black swan, some foreign-policy crisis we do not anticipateate the day. remember, george w. bush came into office expecting to do many things, but 9/11 happened. we don't know what will happen that is unexpected and the unexpected is really the biggest risk. anchor: those were carlyle group cofounder, david rubenstein, brandywine -- and mark fields on the most significant risks in 2017. anchor: time now for the bloomberg business flash, biggest stories in the news right now. the bill and melinda gates foundation will invest as much as $140 million in closely held therapeutics. used to develop an anti-hiv therapy. if the program goes well, the foundation may give up to $90 million more. palladium is the only precious metal to rise since donald trump surprise election win. gold has slumped at the progress policies strength in the dollar but palladium, which is used in conversions, stabilizing vehicle sales in the u.s.. finally, the software maker for mostrless cars jumped the since august after announcing a partnership with the german mapping co

we saw these black swans, brexit was the first, donald trump is the second.arkets -- markets have not reacted. i have to be careful and not be subjective. they have not reacted as very lightly us far. -- -- as virulently thus far. money poured in for five straight days. we had the biggest inflows in almost five years, and the market assumed there would be a no vote. >> that's probably a little more ambitious or optimistic than might be appropriate for the situation. with brexit, the economic consequences i think are negative in the markets reflected that. with the victory of trump, it is less clear. i think there's a difference in terms of market reaction. italy, you have to come down with it being more negative. you know you need reform, and you say the likelihood of that reform has fallen. be more optimistic about the economy. manus: dan, stay with me. we have a lot more to debate during this first half hour. here are some of the highlights for your week ahead, and what a week it will be. the supreme court in the united kingdom starts hearing evidence on la

but i'm going to close by black swan." it is an intellectual yet idiot. it's the most useful single article i've ever read. his point is 40% of the governing elites worldwide are people who are really good at taking tests and writing essays which gets them into really elite colleges where they take classes from professors who are really good at taking tests and writing essays. and they take tests and write essays, they get good grades so their professor places them where they judge, a newsroom or bureaucracy so they can continue to take tests and write essays. the only problem with these people as they don't know anything. they can write a brilliant essay on how to change a tire but if you show up and say my car has a flat, they don't know how to change a tire. this was the best explanation of what i've been dealing with. 80% of the state department. these are very very erudite people who are idiots. they are intellectuals, but they are idiots. trump is not a financier. he's a builder. if you build a building, it has to stand up. a very important principl

generally speaking apart from possible black swan events that we could be seeing in europe, electionsny and france, but the data is getting better, are getting better when you look at what is going on in europe. optimistic,g quite does it mean that we can see perhaps a global economy getting back on its feet? certainly this year has marked a, well, two speed globe? point. is a very good we can see that continue. when you look at the risk of vince the global economy has had to deal with this year, the china devaluation early in the up to u.s.t, the run elections, and more recently the italian referendum as well, a key point when you step back and look at the global economy, we started the week, year rather very soft, and since then we have incrementally seen ongoing signs of strength. we probably finish this year expected.han i tend to think that story continues through next year, but i tend to think that to speed economy probably does continue. europe has its issues with dutch elections, french elections, and q3, german elections as well. our sense is that we see a modest slowing in t

shaping up right now and this administration, what are the things that concern you and the possible black swanuly disruptive? we made at a list of all the big one since world war ii, korea, vietnam, afghanistan, iran, iraq, china, india, pakistan, vietnam, i am missing a bunch. the globalrailed economy. the at phnom had a huge effect, but only 1, 1973 crisis, roiled the economy. geopolitics is always noisy, but with little effect. there are more wars in the middle east, uncertainty around the nuclear risk, iran, russia, north korea. north korea has a bomb and will soon be able to deliver it to california. assessment.my that is the assessment of people in the government, two years or so. that is a serious issue for the world. i worry about that and peace in ,he middle east, but in reality bad policy, doing things to make it worse, government shutdowns, not fixing the school system. you want populism and want to get worse, don't fix the school system, grow the economy slower. the would be worse for world than anything else. the world needs a strong america. in the military, god bless you for doi