we will take the question to the chairman of blackrock for all flash -- blackrock. ♪ out with itsis investmente have been talking about it all morning. you have to be careful how you take risk. that is the collective view of 120 blackrock money managers. some of it reflects the view of the roughly $4 trillion they have under management. of the alternative investors gives us lots to talk about this morning. the investors, the pension funds, the endowments, the sovereign wealth funds -- what are they asking to do? >> this is very uncertain times for our institutional clients. we have a volatile world. i think more than anything, what claims are turning to blackrock for is our insight on what is in the world. they also want to see their money in motion. our index business as well as alternatives five from, we are willing -- we are able to see money in motion early. that is what it is about. again,do you expect -- no one is calling a bear market for 2015. .ell, some people are of course blackrock is not calling for a bear market in 2015. they are calling for a challenging market. have you expect t

later this hour, dealing with the virgins we speak to the blackrock chief investment strategist about 2015. but now you want the market open and manus cranny has got it. the troop of stocks will be down to tesco and retailers. germany imports falling by 3% and european equities will pause as it were. texas intermediate its lowest close since 2009. the journal carries a story that the fed may debate -- move closer to removing the phrase " considerable time" from their language at the next federal reserve meeting. that will be a starting pistol in the fed interpretation of when the first hike might come. typically that would mean six months time. european equities are lower. iron note from jpmorgan on ore and where we are going with that price. 2016 -- 65 back in bucks. global demand is going to moderate -- oversupply forecasted in the near term. and china as you see this quite strange move -- they will reduce the amount of bonds they have prepared to give out cash for at the central bank. this is a reflection of where we are -- concern about growth, supply and pricing in terms of those

blackrock has four trillion, with a t, assets under management.u buying today. >> it is a tough market to catch on the way up this is impressive move. invest store looked out, realized world is not coming to an end. lower oil is a good thing and you're seeing pretty strong rally. liz: saw the volatility index drop 13%, russ. what do you think happens, between now and spin it halfway through january? >> liz, this is a great question. i think we're going to see the market move higher, but, and here is the important caveat, these big swings back in fashion since september they will continue. we're going back into era which volatility is normal and that means you're going to have two, 300 point days on the dow, something you really didn't have in 2013 and first part of 2014. david: so what is the average investor supposed to do? do you buy on the dip? do you get an etf and just forget about it? do you leave it there? what do you do? >> for most investors looking to build wealth in the long term you want to be invested. valuations in the u.s. are not c

joins me now with more on his exclusive interview with blackrock ceo larry fink.e seems somewhat optimistic, but certainly some challenges. >> larry is concerned about bond market liquidity. you have heard this from some institutional investors who worry that if there is a selloff, a bigger selloff, let's say, than what we saw in october, we would see more of what we saw in october, forced selling on the part of hedge funds who might be loaded up on certain credit trades, and a difficulty getting out of those trades. that, larry says, is his number one concern, number one risk going forward. he shares the concern we heard from other people, discussing in detail the blackrock outlook released this morning, about geopolitics, that there are zero-sum outcomes in places like ukraine or the middle east. blackrock says -- i guess one of the things that struck me in his investment outlook is the challenge of hedging. the idea that stocks and bonds are as closely correlated now as they have been in a long time. if we see a selloff in the stock market, we're likely to see

rick rieder of blackrock up with his 2015 outlook and why june is the month to watch. shares of celgene hitting an all-time high today. the leading s&p stock. thanks to new results from the cancer drug the company is developing. celgene's ceo will be live with us exclusively in a few moments halftime back after this. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. . >>> wall street legend laszlo biryini back to pick stocks. let's talk about some you did in the past. want to know if you still own restoration hardware. >> absolutely. >> you talked a about it may 16th, the stock up 37% since then. why not take some off the table? >> it's a premier retailer and see no reason to. >> think that's still going higher. trinity has not performed well since may though ye

blackrock's chief executive tells us global economies must reform. central banks cannot do it all on their own. >> their job cannot have the same impact, especially in when we had great volatility. >> and a big deal coming in oil as crude prices fall to new five-year lows. they are said to have revised talks with talisman. repsol are set to have a revised talks with talisman. >> welcome to "countdown." >> a bloomberg exclusive for you. it is the chief executive at ubs. i joined him for an exclusive interview. i wanted to know more. i started by asking, three years into your tenure as the head of how he would score himself. >> i am going to be generous with myself. i give myself lucky number eight. >> lucky number eight. i can't remember -- i can remember our first interview, and i said, do you think people bitthought you were a strange, downsizing, focusing on wealth management. you were very cautious, and you said it was too early. we are three years in. yes or no? success or not? >> eight. >> that's fine. the market has been fair to you as well. i

we speak to pablo from blackrock. it is bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ >> good morning.mise to see "the hobbit" after i have seen " frozen" 10 times. apple raising iphone prices in russia. for the second time in less than a month, the company trying to account for the ruble's plant against the u.s. dollar. $645e 6, $955 in russia, in the u.s. makers largest smartphone raises about $1 billion. the company is expanding overseas. omii ha overtaken samsung. hospitalized with pneumonia. a spokesman says it is a mild case and he should be out of the hospital soon. is battlingold ali parkinson's t disease. he is in stable condition. on to emerging markets. what to do in 2015. the equities and bonds of emerging markets go first. f you dare, where do you acquire foreign bonds? pablo kohlberg deals with this every day with blackrock's emerging-market debt team. youfascinated with where do go when you want to find higher yields. >> you need to look for good fundamentals. a couple headwinds. oil prices could be great for consumers but are bad for some emerging-market countries. you

i continue that blackrock remains strong. we just had a conversation.e of biggest for 2015. the dollar will remain strong. on the past two job reports, the dollar was not. it's a big story. a big story. the business in the insurance sector. here with more is caroline hyde and it will create a -- >> $821 billion powerhouse. 16 million people. a have to remember it is surprise to investors with a first was about the merger plans. felt they were to focus on the united kingdom and wanted to diversify. they are spending 5 billion pounds to their exposure. they are shoring up capital. they are completely fabric -- flabbergasted. have to win hearts and minds about why it makes sense. toy have until december 19 make a formal. that's what we thought. 15% premium. that $40 billion worth of assets. a new fact, today will save. they're going to be safe than hundred 25 million pounds. >> cost savings, is that the motivation behind it? >> efficiency and that's where they are trying to highlight where the deals makes this. many reports from the press and across the bo

robert kapito is the president of blackrock. so good to see you. thank you for joining us. before we get into saving for retirement and how you do it effectively, let me get your take on what went on this past week. we had some rocky days there. in terms of market sell-offs. are we seeing a change in sentiment, in terms of the stock market right now? >> i don't think so. i think last week was really a function of the end of the year. people trying to assess where oil is going to be and what the impact of oil is going to be. a weekend right before the big election in japan. and i think a look back at the year and wondering what the next cycle is going to bring. when it comes to equities, is it going to be cyclical stocks and defensive stocks and when will the fed raise rates? all those in conjunction at the end of the year, i think people squared off their positions and it caused a pretty big dip in the market. >> in fact, this upcoming week we have the federal reserve meeting with a two-day meeting. there's some talk that the fed will remove that line for considerable amoun

blackrock's larry fink expects equity buying to slow down. >> i think it will start moderating.rest rates continue to be suppressed i think ultimately, equity return is going to be somewhat muted. >>

anecdote aboutin a colleague of his from blackrock. he did all of his christmas using wi-fi the airplane. >> wi-fi on the airplane, we will talk about that. you have been paying attention. what you think not just on the consumer or retail, but how that affects his views on the market? upside. is bond yields still at 2.5% for the 10 year treasury. think the, i probability is slightly higher than 15% and we will have bond yields there, but the equity returns will start moderating. 20% risk that gdp will grow faster than he expects because the consumer will start feeling as though he can consume, and in that scenario, to 3%.uld be 2.5% equity returns would be greater. >> we look forward to that interview. much more ahead, thinking about shopping. the only thing being sold, we will be back. ♪ shopping. >> congress is scrambling to finalize a spending bill before the thursday deadline or reach a repeat of last year's his government shutdown. leaders are added to unveil the legislators today and conservative republican opposition, that democ

blackrock is going to unveil its outlook for 2015. i sat down with larry fink.rise you, i asked him some of the same questions that we will be adding around. what are the chances that come this time next year we are going to be looking at equity returns of 10% again and a rerun of 2014 again?d yields at 2.5% this is an excerpt of what he had to say. >> equities are going to start moderating. they are not going to go up 10% year. they will continue to be suppressed. to be returns are going somewhat muted. you are not going to have a disparity of 2.5% bond returns. you will see that compression. i think there is a 20% risk that the economy does better and tenure rates could touch 3% in that range. than 50%says no better probability that we get eight to 10%. a better chance that those returns are going to be 6% to 8%. thee is a 20% chance that economy outperforms and we see yields tick higher. >> i'm not going to disagree with larry. he's the man. i am going to follow what he says. we are very similar. i would change the odds a little bit. there is a chance of the

blackrock ceo explains why is optimistic about u.s. markets. >> we have a dramatic increase in prices. we are fair value to moderately above fair value today. we are not at the levels we saw in 2000. we are not saying the same p/e's where you had true bubbles. >> the stock rally will continue into 2015. jpmorgan may need the -- more than $20 billion in next or capital to meet a new requirement by the fed. jpmorgan has already had a highest capital surcharge under international regulators recommendation. the u.s. supreme court says amazon workers do not have a federal right to be paid for time spent in security searches after their shift ends. the justices unanimously rejected claims by former employees who said they should be paid for time in antitheft searches. snapchat hired a chief strategy officer. he led the team that worked on alibaba's ipo. we spoke to him in november to take -- get his take on the future of tech investing. >> investors are excited about the technological opportunities and of you think about internet, it is a vo

should mention that blackrock is not heavily invested in greek bonds but it is an area of concern becauset could be a ripple effect. >> absolutely. greece is an interesting case because it is growing, the fastest-growing european country. introducing these elements of uncertainty is not a good thing for growth. contaminates the vision. joining usrodriguez in studio. thanks for your time. we will have more on the senate cia report with former director john deutch. ♪ >> for more on the senate cia report, let's bring in john deutch, a former deputy secretary of defense. he joins me on the phone from houston. welcome to "bottom line." thank you for your time today. >> thank you, mark. is chair ofinstein the senate intelligence committee. she said the report on the cia's stands as an record of a stain on our values and on our history. what is your reaction to those comments? >> i think it is a very badly thought report. i very much think it contains incorrect allegations of what happened during this per. iod i don't think it helps the country defend itself in the future. incorrectu say allegat

executive, chief officer of blackrock on "market makers." good tuesday morning. tom keene with scarlet fu and brendan greeley. futures, negative seven. dow futures, -55. could even the lyrics save advertising this year. it grew only 1.1% -- not even the olympics its eight advertising this year, it grew only 1.1%. magazine ads were down 7%. newspapers, down 9%. there was growth at least an internet stock. everywhere else, there was a blood bath. where did this come from? >> a large chunk came from what i call the web. you have some incremental growth common from the large brands. their shifting spending primarily from print media. there also shifting some on the margins from tv. >> these new companies are a bit like millenials. that come of age and don't think about tv. >> the timeshifting numbers is incredible. 14% drop between 18 to 24-year-olds. speaking of millenials. you still have people watching television, what are they watching besides live sports? of mostan still reach every 18 to 24-year-old on tv. relative to the alternatives available, it is still a w

blackrock, what, $3 trillion? >> a little more. >> 4 trillion.than 4 trillion. >> i'm happy, i'm not complaining. >> what's the official number? >> 4.5. >> who's counting. >> adds up. >> later in the hour, david cote is here, doubling the stock since he took over, and the chairman of the counsel of economic advisers, jason furman, will be here. he was on set not too long ago in new jersey. reacting to the conversation with all these. larry, heavy hitting ceos this morning. not disappointing. giving us a look into the obama's message, and first, andrew has the morning's headlin headlines. >> adp employment report due in less than 15 minutes saying the economy likely added 223,000 private jobs last month, of course, ahead of the government's monthly employment report coming on friday. president obama expected to announce a pick for a new defense secretary as early as this week likely to pick former pentagon official, ashton carter k taking over from chuck hagel who resigned abruptly last month. 40% of the ceos plan to hire more workers up from 34%,

however, that view is not share by blackrock's ceo larry fink. speaking in new york, he said the drop in oil is good news for the world economy. >> we're witnessing a true event that all the statistics were there. everything i just told you, statistically, everybody knew four months ago. and, you know, what triggered this is a bigger question. but the most important thing is, andrew, this is a massive task for the world. this is really good stuff for the world. >> joining us now is marc ostwald, strategist at i am investor services. thank you very much for joining us. let's talk about the oil price, what it means for the wider economy. larry finck pointing to the fact that it is a pick up for the consum consumer. is he right? >> it depend really what we make of it. i tend to agree with him. it definitely is a boost for businesses, it's a boost for consumers. it's a great opportunity particularly for all the heavy oil importers in the emerging world. specifically thinking about countries like indonesia, turkey. we should stand to benefit. it allow

among the highlights, exxon mobil, caterpillar, blackstone, blackrock and honey well. it all starts at 6:00 a.m. eastern time. >>> you're looking at the tree which will be lighted tomorrow. check that out then. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. steve carson joins us from the weather channel. he has today's national forecast. i'm wondering what we should expect tomorrow when we do have that tree lighting. >> you know what? i think we're in good shape. by the way, i didn't realize we were on yet. i thought i was listening to the music in my break for entertainment. >> dancing to yourself, right? >> it was very cheery. today, a little messy in the northeast and the mid-atlantic. here is a live look at the radar. showing a little bit of snow. most of the snow is staying to the west of 95. so it's a cold rain in d.c. philadelphia, sitting at 39. doesn't look like a big deal. but there's not a lot of moisture with this system. there are temperature profiles that give you a little freezing rain, maybe a little sleet through the early afternoon. all of that will shift i

. >>> 7:20 eastern time, blackrock's chief of fixed income will join us, as well. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." u.s. equity futures at this hour suggest we're going to have a positive open if it continues this way. the dow would open higher by 96 points. making headlines, baidu is buying a stake in uber. the skp making the announcement in beijing today, but terms were not disclosed. the ride hailing service is valued at about $40 billion. in addition to baidu, other investors include goldman sachs and google. >>> coming up, falling gasoline brices, that is welcome news to most consumers. but where are they using their savings? we'll have an exclusive survey when "squawk box" comes right back. >>> "squawk box" wanted to know what consumers are doing with the gas price savings. so we asked the national association of convenience stores to poll their customers. look at that. 2.54 f$2.54 for unleaded. . $compared to last year's $3.23 per gallon. joining us is quarters of all gasoline sold in the united states of the good to see you, john. >> good morning, how are you doing? >> good. y

i want to bring in the chief investment strategist of blackrock.lk about what janet yellen said, let me just play part of the news on britain's, comments she made yesterday on rate policy. >> in particular, the committee considers it unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings. this assessment is completely data dependent. if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the committee's employment and inflation objectives, then the committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. picking herrefully words. what exactly was your against takeaway from the conference yesterday? takethink the biggest away, everyone focus on the word patients and how you compare that to considerable time. the fed is trying to extricate itself from unusually low rates, but they have leeway. one reason they have leeway and can exercise patience is the fact that we have seen a decline in expectations, a decline in realized inflation, an

blackrock ceo. theave been speaking about markets in europe. both spoke about the need for form.'s start in your. he started by telling markets editor manus cranny about what he has learned in the past three years. when an setting and executing the strategy, the last five or six years of this environment from a macro standpoint of view talk me one thing clearly -- do not count on it economy or the market. and whatour business you can control. unfortunately, it plays out every quarter. a very balanced a cautious outlook. that is really something that helped us to really go through the -- unless do the -- a let's do the right thing and fix a fundamental part of our business. rates, you name it. they are not going to go the way you desire them to go. fix the problems. >> there's a possibility that we will lose some of our compensation and the form of the federal reserve or the bank of england possibly raising rates. riskat perhaps the biggest ? we have to see how it plays out. nobody has stopped qe and raised rates. >> if you have the reverse of the policy that would probably mean w

blackrock cofounder. the number one thing the government can do for business.s grip on the movie industry. we will take you to hollywood for the story. fbi warning american businesses to prepare for cyber attacks. fire i.

some of the largest investors out there have really been complaining -- >> blackrock among them. >> about liquidity. >> i agree. i think it is one of the greater risks to the financial markets. >> really. >> yes. we feel it is very important, we've reduced leverage to the lowest levels we have had an existence. >> hold on. just yesterday someone was saying hedge fund leverage is creeping up. you have done the opposite? >> we've done the opposite. we think the biggest risk of positions, something like to call [indiscernible] >> that is some nerd talk. ring a bell for that. >> people like to give liquidity scores. we found liquidity is not static. we found even a mid-october, liquidity uneven the most liquid instruments has disappeared. what happened in mid-october was really nothing. it wasn't a major market crisis. it was a small selloff in the market and liquidity vanished, even on high grade corporate bonds. we think it is much safer to move down the liquidity spectrum into what is already deemed less liquid but reduce your leverage significantly. the greatest risk would be a very leopa

in tomorrow's world, you may find yourself placing calls to pimco, blackrock, and a number of others.world is changing. some would say, rightly so, it couldn't come soon enough. thank you so much, francesco. let's stay with italy, specifically olives, the staple of the mediterranean diet. poor weather and pestilence are wreaking havoc on crops and that is pushing prices up. >> since i was a boy, i've never seen a season like this one. in 1985, we had a strong breeze but we didn't experience such a drop in production. sayrandfather and parents they have never seen anything like this. >> he labors away on his olive tree farm in central italy, a region famous for its extra-virgin oil production. in a good year, he sells olive oil to local customers. year, i've no oil to sell at all. the quantity i've managed to produce will be used up by me. this season, i lost about 80% of my olive oil production. 25,000 toking about 30,000 euros of lost income. this time of year, you usually wouldn't be able to get in because of the crowd. now, as you can see, it is all dead. there is nobody around. >>

lisa booth is senior director of blackrock group, and jessica tarlove is a senior political strategistof you. lisa, she's said again and again she's not going to run. >> she has. but you're absolutely right to highlight the fact that there is this rift in the democrat party. hillary clinton's going to have a lot of problems with her base, we've already seen it. groups like democracy for america and moveon.org are actively campaigning for elizabeth warren to run s and this represents a bigger problem for the party. the 2014 election saw the end of the moderate democrat. and this is going to represent a big problem for them into the 2016 election and next congress. we got a little taste of this during the recent budget fight over the $1.1 trillion spending bill. you had elizabeth warren and nancy pelosi on one side and steny hoyer and president obama on the other. these problems are going to increase in the days ahead. leah: lisa, you say it's good to have a competitive primary going into the general election, so do you agree? >> i agree it's always good to have competition. i think that

. >> we have heard this week of goldman sachs and blackrock and jack lew that it is good for our economye. >> den in it gartman and greg ett. dennis, i spoke to you this time last year. you said oil had a lot more room to go down further. what do you say now? >> i still say, sara, further to go down. if you go back and take a look at what crude oil has done, even going back into the 19th century, a time of crude at $3.85 or so. fell all the way to a dime. in 1860, up to about $13. fell down to a dime. several years ago right at the turn of our century we were at $130. fell to $10. crude oil has this terrible hysterical tendency of falling 75%, 80%, 90% in value. can it do gown further? absolutely. crude wants to go lower. >> do you have a level you're looking at? >> i have learned long ago i can make fool of myself far too easy getting the trend wrong. the trend is still down. let's just say write this down. continuing to fall until it stops and continue to fall until the term structure turns positive. and the term structure has no intention of turning positive at this point. >> all righ

blackrock bond guru and others join us straight ahead.dent obama taking a major step to noshlallize relations with cuba. potentially opening up trade and investment in the communist nation and could have an impact on many american businesses from airlines to baseball. steve forbes herishing to weigh in. you may be surprised by what he has to say. you're watching cnbc. >>> welcome back. what a day it is today in the markets. looks like actually a recordbreaking day not in terms of closing levels and last couple of weeks taken us below that but the dow adding about 288 points. s&p adding about 40 which is the best point gain in 3 years and granted the higher we move the les those points matter in percentage terms but still for the nasdaq which had been really beaten down of late. more reaction to this market day in light of the fed's meeting with rick reiter and ron kashevski. rick, the central question for you here is where does the 10-year go from here, for example? we were shocked yesterday flirting with the 2% level. what happens now? >

. >> possibly, just like people are obsessed with blackrock, but in a different way because larry finks not attract the kind of melodramatic attention that we pay to the story at pimco. with mohammed and bill gone now, and these other guys at the top and it calls down, i suspect it will become boring and we won't cover them. >> then what are we going to do? we will watch bill gross and how he does it at janus. bill, would you put money in with bill gross now? >> but always concerns me is that he does seem to be acting a bit irrationally. his behavior is not what i would want necessarily. as proven at his track record is, his behavior lately have not been comparable. >> i think he just said no. >> i would counter that i think of how different is that from historic bill gross? >> exactly. >> when performance is great, everything is great, but suddenly you have cracked the armor and you say, oh, no, he's acting crazy. but that has always been part of his shtick. it's like saying warren buffett seems kind of folksy. that annoys me. >> it comes back to the question of, are his best investin

. >> honeywell, boeing, financials, blackrock., and continental resources. and i did that all from here. >> that was beautifully done. you might have a career here. >> thank you. because you couldn't have come up with those after you got all ten of those. >> my head is spinning. >> i'm here to help. thank you, howard. bob is going to stay and keep nodding for the rest of the hour. you added some stuff. we appreciate it. say hi to that guy -- >> dr. love? >> yeah. brings us the cheap briefcases. does he -- you know how frugal he is, right? yeah. it's just unbelievable, isn't it? >> yeah. >> for a guy who makes that much money. but, hey, you know, you should watch every penny. good businessman. >> thank you. >>> when we come back, nissan sounding the alarm about russia saying they are facing a blood bath over the ruble. plus reporting. michelle is back from cuba. and we show you a new app that promises to keep your packages safe from thieves this holiday season. and jim cramer is getting ready for the day ahead. "squawk box" rolls o

>> joining me now for more than, lisa booth, a republican strategist and senior director at the blackrockatic strategist. i want to start with you, maria. typically, the storyline when we get to the end of the year and there is a possible government shutdown, it's the republicans. why boehner can't corral the tea party or some of the more conservative members of the republican party. now you're seeing people like elizabeth warren stand up and call out the president. let's listen to what she said on the floor last night. >> washington already works really well for the billionaires and the big corporations and the lawyers and the lobbyists. but what about the families who lost their homes or their jobs or their retirement savings, the lass time city bet big on derivatives and lost? what about the families who are living paycheck to paycheck, and saw their tax dollars go to bail out citi just six years ago? we were sent here to fight for those families. and it is time, it is past time for washington to start working for them. >> the president says he doesn't like the spending bill, but he's