is about 3%. 3.6% and blanchard estimates could take up to ten years, but the u.s.so strong financially, kelly, that i think what the market wants to hear is from the biden administration and the treasury secretary and also from the republican side that we have political commitment to bring this under control of which there is absolutely none now. >> no. these are very hard decision, julia, you need to be make making because they have entitlements and the things that you're stuck with. julia, if we head into a recession that would make things worse because revenue is under pressure. is that your best case for 2024, a recession? >> we don't have a recession as a base case, and when we were talking about blanchard's analysis, you know, it's built on sort of projections of trend growth and one of the upside surprises this year is that growth has outperformed when we consider that longer term trend and the divergence comes from productivity. productivity has really improved in the last couple of quarterses and if we happen to be on a stronger productivity trend, this cy

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