joumanna bercetche has been speaking to the ceo of bnp paribas. and let's look at the currency markets. the dollar seems to be attracting something of a safe haven bid. dollar/yen, 1.09 the euro just above 1.24 we'll be back in two minutes some air fresheners are so overwhelming, they can... send you and your family running. introducing febreze one for fabric and air. no aerosols. no dyes. no heavy perfumes. it cleans away odors for a pure light freshness... so you can spray and stay. febreze one, breathe happy. we know life can be hectic. that's why, at xfinity, we've been working hard to simplify your experiences with us. now, with instant text and email updates, you'll always be up to date. you can easily add premium channels, so you don't miss your favorite show. and with just a single word, find all the answers you're looking for - because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. download the xfinity my account app or go online today. >>> welcome back to "street signs. intesa sanpaolo reported strong earnings in the fourth quar

bnp paribas, we have spoken to the cfo. income,th-quarter net $1.43 billion, meeting the analysts estimate. of 10% byn equity 2020. when it comes to trading revenue, $1.07 billion versus -- equity in prime services sales up by 12%. in terms of core equity tier one capital, 11.8% at the end of december. there is a stable number for them. that is above the analyst estimates. the largest lender in france. there is a host of redhead -- read headlines. suv.is your we have the numbers for your profit. that is ahead of the estimate. they took home the crown in the united states. profit is a beat. that is above the estimate. they lift the operating guidance to ¥2 trillion. ¥2.2 trillion from y2 trillion. ¥2 trillion was the top end. this is the third time that toyota have upped the gain. ¥2.2 trillion for the fourth-coming year. anna: the breaking news keeps coming for the banking sector and car sector, and now the mining sector as well. anglo american. platinum giving us guidance for the basic eps. 193% to 212% higher. they are al

betting against the bnp part of our, banko santander.e good reason for shorting those banks? >> yeah. i think he has very specific risks he is trying to isolate, clearly for bridgewater. it is about the portfolio. if you have to look at long on the other, at least what he is trying to do in terms of portfolio strategy. picking out the shorts and isolation misses the bigger picture. clearly he is concerned about the structure of the bank and european recovery. he is clearly betting that the european central bank will fail to recharge the european economy. matt: mohammed, thanks very much. membersat klein warned -- kleinwort nambros. let's get back to berlin. a guest to talk about the mostly bad news for airbus this morning. the playmaker has signed for an additional 200-8380 aircrafts. the bad story is overwhelming. its most important aircraft still suffering troubles. airbus has suspended some deliveries due to fresh issues with the engines, as well as the fact that they have upped shorts against it. we are joined by benedikt kammel thin

bnp paribas is an improving environment is likely to support growth.ing that profit will be targets. bloomberg spoke to the cfo. at the should look domestic markets in general, you see a pickup when you look at volumes and fees. we still have a low interest rate environment, so that weighs on the top line. the low interest rate environment also means that the cost of risk is lower than we thought, so overall domestic markets, the bottom line is that 5%. taylor: bnp paribas reported fourth-quarter earnings and trading results mostly in line with estimates. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: our team all night has been working on giving you the best perspective we can on this shoe off in the market. -- shoe off in the market -- chew off in the market. robert sinche with amherst pierpont has seen this before. he joins us now. since you and i remember, libor ois out four standard deviations, we are not there now. is two the vix, here standard deviations and three where we are now. we are not anywhere near the agony of crisis. do you predict we wil

we are back with daniel morris from bnp paribas and geoffrey yu from ubs.s significantly lower. is it just that the market dynamics are different question mark why was the selloff sharper over there? >> there was a big move in the renminbi yesterday. there are big move behind it. as we know, the constant creating in china is tension. at the same time, liquidity tends to be a bit squeezed heading into the new year. the chinese growth forecasts have been revised higher. francine: is there anything we should watch out for in the chinese market, then? or is it just more technical stuff? daniel: we are expecting the growth rate to slow, we forecast more on the services sector, rather than the domestic sector. i think the separation will be more important this year, given that we expect a slowdown in gdp, as opposed to the acceleration we saw last year. that dynamic will be important. , i: daniel morris believe it is important to get for the record, what your reaction is. exogenous shock that keeps you up at night right now? daniel: i guess we always had the risk

bnp posted its lowest quarterly trading revenue and a couple of years, showing how the industrywide slumpn revenue upset brightding spots and equity derivatives and prime services where income did rise. down by 3%. sector,in the banking it is bucking the trend and up by 1.5%. the chief executive is seeking to secure its lead over his italian competitor. the new planning expanding its insurance. delivering on most of the targets outlined in the previous four-year plan, including a commitment to pass on 10 billion euros to investors . the stock has risen by 30% since the presentation of its first plan in march of 2014, compared member5% drop for the 47 services index. sticking with financials, munich is down. shares did slump as much as 6%, the biggest fall since april of last year. profit estimates for the fourth quarter as the insurance industry suffered a record year for natural disaster claims. 90 minutes into the session in the u.s.. julie: i can tell you how it is looking at this moment, but not five minutes ago or five minutes from now. we have seen such crazy swings continuing. the

anna: we hear from bnp paribas's cfo.

. >> bnp paribas says its biggest lender is seeing an uptick despite the challenging market. >> overall look at the economic evolution, you see a pickup in demand for services. that is what you see. on top of that, we are digitizing and adapting to accompany those changes. we still have a low interest rate environment. a bit on the top line. but it also means the cost of risk is lower than what you would expect. overall, the bottom line is 5%. >> france's second largest lender has been estimates with fourth quarter -- beaten estimates with fourth quarter results. 69 million euros. it has been expected to post a loss for the period. the company also saw a surprise comeback for the equities trading business in the final three months of the year. >> fourth quarter we did better than our peers. a modest decline. when i look at the full year compared with the banks, we are doing better. our decrease is lower than the others. it seems to me, at the beginning of the year, at least when i look at the markets, we are progressing out of the extraordinary monetary policies which probably also mean

bnp paribas saying that you could have opec and shall coming -- shell coming together in terms of doing deal. the market is pricing four rate hikes for 2018. can dejaon is, are we vu -- are we in deja vu? discussed what came through on the market very shortly. the consumer is confident, so confident that he has not been since the year 2000. consumer confidence is the highest since 2000, but when they asked those participants how bullish are you on stocks in january -- the last time that we saw a drop like this in terms of the american investors attitude to stocks was march 2007. the market went on to drop another 3.5%. states% of the united actually owns american equities directly. this is a different market structurally to the your 2007 -- year 2007. those are the markets. the birds have the high ground at the moment. juliette saly holds the high ground with the first word from singapore. juliette: and the u.k. a conservative party -- conservative party lawmakers have backed an amendment calling for britain to keep close ties to the european union after it leaves the bloc. it is enough

downgrades, downloaded -- upgraded to can late and sell at the boston marathon bombing markets desk bnptay in the aerospace airline sector. fighting talk. you would expect nothing less ido michael o'leary. while others like easyjet are coming out and saying they will reduce pricing going to summer, ryanair is having none of it. coming out and saying we don't see it delete good story coming through in the summer in terms of affairs. price war the summer. easyjet is trading down on the back of that. let me say the dashboard. michael o'leary is talking about the fact that he is going to stand up to the unions. he is having none of it from the pilot unions. easyjet came out and sounded quite positive. fighting talk coming out of ryanair this morning. out, on ant to point flight the other day, they asked me to pay the money for a glass of water. i thought come at this point, what is the difference between the airlines? german pmi's coming out. we had a slew this morning. german actually beating market services pmi. we were looking for 57 even. the composite pmi a 59, we were looking at 58.8.

it is going to get busier as the delegates and athletes and bnp s stream and.vip opening ceremonies arehave been some very vocal protesters on one side. there have been some pro-north korea engagement protesters and on the other side, banging just as loud, those who are not necessarily for it. the highest family member of north korea, the sister of kim jong-un, has arrived along with the north korean delegation. the president here will have lunch with her tomorrow. is some unconfirmed media reports that had she is also bearing an invitation from kim jong-un for president moon to visit the north. with the culture minister yesterday told me is that, if there's one takeaway that they hope, it is be some of initially. this is a flag that the two koreas will be marching up to tonight and dropped the games. peninsula,nified both countries, one flag. anna: fascinating to witness. the near-term challenge for the organizers is how on earth to craft a seating plan that has the u.s. vice president and the high-level north korean delegation all in the same stadium and to not upset everybody. that i

for bnp, it is the same thing, relative to peers, they are doing well. guy: short and sweet. can get the great stuff that our stocks team does here on your bloomberg first go. that.ant to say futures are pointing to a sharp negative start here in europe. relative trade this morning, everything is likely to be dragged lower. s&p futures as well are coming back but still pointing to a negative start in the states. the open is four minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: minutes until the start of cash trading. likely to be a reasonably ugly start. we are going to see european markets down around 3%. that is what the fair value on the bloomberg is pointing to. dax a little bit more over in germany, down by 3.6 sent. just 3.6%. everything is a relative trade today. you are going to be dragged lower. while we have seen a recovery in the s&p futures, the fair value calculation, what you price and everything you need to price in, dividends, still pointing to a negative start. the doubt, down by 2.5% -- the dow, down by 2.5%. still going to see a negative start, although they are pri

alix: paul mortimer of bnp paribas has my favorite quote on the spirit "the problem is the gap betweenhe monetary policy has become a sort of nannying, handholding, overprotective fairytale, and the return to the .dult real world is jarring reality and fantasy have to be reconciled." do you agree with that? darrell: i do. but whatever adjective you want on it, extraordinary in monetary stimulus. the narrative is turning quickly from monetary stimulus and a slow and gradual walk back from that to almost extraordinary fiscal stimulus domestically, right? bill, have got the tax .nd now $300 billion in a year if you annualized that over a five-year, 10-year period, you are talking about almost $1.5 trillion. david: the budget is almost as big as the tax reform deal was, and we made such a big deal about tax reform. long was a time not too ago, global synchronized growth was going to bring us out of this -- alix: like, 10 days ago. [laughter] david: exactly. i can remember that. how much of that is similar because we had more and more you start notonce seeing that leverage, the global divid

and moody's -- so far the bnp -- pmis being treated as the fraud is being treated as an idiosyncratict play out across india? have the check in on indian steel players. today moody's and a note saying the tariffs could have the greatest impact on india, as well as china and south korea. that it will be manageable due to small volumes and profitability in 2018 underpinned by demand as well is chinese capacity cuts. u.k. expectedthe to come out with rates tomorrow at -- the boj expected to come out with race tomorrow and mr. kuroda is seen as mr. reliable. sophie: yes, corroded reiterated persistent and powerful easing needs to remain target.hat 2% inflation it looks like asset managers a run money. i want to highlight this charge. as it managers have the biggest bet on the yen since before kuroda was named the boj chief. the yen's recent rallies, that is seeing leverage scaling back further from really sharp positions and they could have kuroda again coming out as mr. reliable today. thank you for that. chances gears somewhat, are you have to look to the east -- you always have to look

a deal could be signed next paribas,h hsbc, bnp and lenders who have agreed to provide funds, part of project that is due to come on stream in 2019. spacex passed a major milestone with the successful first launch of its brand-new rocket. the falcon heavy is a reusable booster that allows spacex to handle bigger payloads such as commercial satellites and missions for u.s. national security. ceo elon musk has said the launch would be considered a success the falcon heavy did not explode after liftoff. they really went as well as one could have hoped. [indiscernible] it was probably the most exciting thing i've ever seen, literally ever. and then the center core mostly did land. ramy: global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. haidi: thanks for that. we are going to head back live to the world capital market symposium and kuala lumpur, anere it man -- where yvonne m is standing by with our next guest. getne: we've been trying to a take on what is going on in the markets here and how it

bank, theree large was a lot of speculation last year, bnp paribas, unicredit getting into the mix.holders about the possibility of a sale? stephan: let me put it this way, this conversation is a bit overhyped. yes, in a general conceptual way, it seems to be clear that europe in total is probably over .ank in germany as well the concept of consolidation is something we have to look for in a strategic dimension. if you look the moment at what it will require to be happening now, let's be honest, combining that produces even higher capital requirements than before. then you have to think the resolution board that once you to do -- you can be unzipping the new merged unit over the weekend which is not necessarily very supportive for the economy. believewhy we cross-border mergers will come, but it is a while away. matt: it is going to take some time. we hear so much about taking union in europe -- about banking union in europe. stephan: that is ecb's political agenda. there has been some progress over the last year but judging, it will take a while. matt: speaking of politics, we had

tom: i look at all of this, and the backdrop is your huge history at bnp paribas of being right on scorelook at the effervescence or du have to fold and the international attribute which folds it down under 3%? julia: if you look at the pickup between 2016 and 2017, that has global roots. saw a surge in china, a surge in emerging markets. the destiny of the u.s. this year will be tied to how long this bull and global manufacturing last, and i expected to cool off. the u.s. consumer has been quite a bit more subdued. they have been reacting a little bit to the wealth, but they are not leveraging it. it really is a global phenomenon. you have to look abroad to the outlook and i expect some moderation this year. francine: does the tax overhaul change that a little bit? will it push americans to spend? julia: i think actually when we put in such a fiscal stimulus at full employment, one thing is that most of it goes to corporations, and they will thennd more through capex through hiring and wage increases, despite the headline we will see a decent capex outlook, but that depends on how much

time for commodities in general. .rancine: thank you so much we will be back with daniel morris of bnpt. coming up, conversation with the iea executive director. look for that interview at 11:20 a.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am taylor riggs. let's get the bloomberg business flash. foras found a temporary fix an engine problem that led to the ground of almost a dozen of air 323 to the engine maker would replace a new seal with the original one because of durability issues. -- is working on a permanent fix. sprint has gone back to the junk bond market for the first time in three years. the smallest of the 4 leading u.s. wireless carriers spelled -- sold junk bonds. it's a sign the parents have no immediate plans to provide funding for the cash-strapped company. the soccer player that many consider the best in the world is not for sale at any price. bloomberg spoke to the president of barcelona. >> we have a club we wanted to have -- we like to practice this unique way of futbol we do when we play. -- is our key player. taylor: messi's

but even if convicted there are banks — ubs, bnp, credit — who have been convicted over other mattersharges for its operations. i think the public at the time, not only did we see too big to fail banking, which we still have, but we saw too big to jail anchors. that was fran boyt from positive money. the government‘s trying to get more parents to use shared parental leave? yes — the marketing campaign is encouraging new parents to "share the joy". around 285, 000 couples are eligible every year for shared parental leave, but take—up "could be as low as 2%", the department for business said. experts say that as well as a lack of understanding of what is on offer, cultural barriers and financial penalties are deterring some parents from sharing parental leave. the government minister trying to get us all to do this was on five live this morning, and he said he actually can‘t take it up himself? yes, good point. the business minister andrew griffiths is due to become a dad i think in april, and he explained that because he is an office holder, as mps are, rather than an employee, he was