ouch let's bring in daniel morris senior investment strategies at bnp paribas.struggle with what to focus on. now it feels like there's a struggle to figure out whatnot to focus on. whether it's trade wars, interest rate moves, the fed, qe here, qe there, brexit what are you and your team at bnp paribas mostcused on now >> we are trying to illustrate the point that there seems to be a bit of everything, not one thing the markets are worried about. if one of those four or six items we're concerned about goes better, there is always something else to turn to. the key things we think will matter in the near-term, the outlook for u.s. interest rates is it true is the fed going to pause next year will the dots come down and lower rate expectations in the u.s. that's crucial when you look at the market, particularly the u.s. market and see it as a signal of a gross slowdown, we don't think that's the case, but the markets are not quite convinced of that yet. at the same time we would like to see the same out of china and out of europe. trade wars continue to go back a

kindly supported this year by bnp. welcome to those joining as the bbc our partnerfor this bnp. partner for this evening. i would like to extend a huge congratulations and thanks to those artists who work has been nominated tonight. forensic architecture, naeem mohaiemen, charlotte prodger and luke willis thompson. thanks also to lindsay island and elsa, the curators of this exhibition, and to our jury. curators of this exhibition, and to ourjury. —— curators of this exhibition, and to our jury. —— younger. curators of this exhibition, and to ourjury. —— younger. each year, the turner prize is awarded to an artist working in the uk for an outstanding exhibition or other presentation of their work and the preceding year. this year, the artists have given us a remarkable show. in different ways, although the work provokes thought. each one tackles a pressing matter that basis society today. issues of identity, inequality, power, gender, migration and a class. in galleries and museums throughout this country and across the world and in public spaces as well, you will see diverse op

we'll have to see that lawrence mufkin from bnp is still with us to talk about the outlook. i just want to go back a little bit and talk about italy it seems like we finally got some closure on this on going battle between italian government and the european commission can we just put this to sleep for now? >> it's been a roller coaster for italy, hasn't it i think the thing about italy is that, you know, there's an is n equilibrium on both side you have a little movement because the debt burden is so big, a little movement one way or another can cause a big move in the spread. so what we saw is this government comes in, it starts talking about aggressive fiscal stimulus well ahead of the eu's guidance and as a result, the market reprices very aggressively that's where we've been. and it has seem that government here was sticking to the idea that we were elected to do something in particular. we don't want these brussels bureaucrats telling us with he can't. how far they have to come back before markets get reassured seems to hinge on the procedure. they moved just far enoug

our view of bnp paribas is that this will not pass on december 11.ink it's there for theresa may to win. we think that will be a negative for the pound in the short-term. however, the big picture is we still think there will be a deal in the eu. there's a 50% chance of that happening. investors are expecting that, too, so there will be a short-term move lower in the pound. but the big move really is likely to be a relief rally as we go into march, if a deal is done. into 2019, the view of bnp paribas is actually incredibly positive on sterling. anna: we could see in the short-term weakness in bank stocks. we saw that when dominic rob resigned. those banks in ibs, not sure where the future goes. steven: i think that's the right way to look at it. industries that are exposed to a no deal brexit are likely to lose out in short-term. anna: or potential for change of government. thank you very much. steven stays with us. emmanuel macron faces the biggest crisis of his presidency as violence continues to flare in france. we'll talk about that and see what'

into the job, the beginning of the financial crisis would loom as a result of the closure of the two bnpounts. but you just roll your sleeves and work, and team up with people who know what they are doing and have a good moral compass. i think it is a combination of all that. david: you have done a very good job at the imf by all accounts. one of the things you have to worry about is not just countries that are not doing that well and need some money, but the economy of the entire world. because your job is to help promote stability, development, and also employment. how do you think we are better prepared around the world for another financial collapse of the type we had 10 years ago? christine: no, i think we are better prepared. we are better prepared because at least in certain areas, we have learned the lessons. when you look at the banking system, when you look at the ring of supervisors, when you look at the set of regulations that apply, i think in that particular sector, we are much better prepared. you know, the banks around the world, almost solid capital ratios, liquidity rat

and also, even that the opposition was facing its own problems, because the chief of the bnp has alreadyems were there. but since october, they came together, so since october, they came together, so they had an opportunity to be a formidable opposition. they didn't know if they would win. if it had been a know if they would win. if it had beenafair know if they would win. if it had been a fair election we would know that. but to this point, what we have seen has not been a fair election. we have to leave it there. thank you very much indeed. the british government has defended its decision to award a contract for nearly $18 million to a shipping company with no trading record, as part of its preparations for a possible no—deal brexit. seaborne freight has been contracted to provide ferry services carrying goods vehicles from ramsgate to ostend. a bbc investigation has established that the company has never run a ferry service and has no significant assets. our business correspondent joe miller reports. these are the large ferries that will carry thousands of lorries across the channel t

into the job, the beginning of the financial crisis would loom as a result of the closure of the two bnpccounts. but you just roll your sleeves and work, and team up with people who know what they are doing and have a good moral compass. i think it is a combination of all that. david: you have done a very good job at the imf by all accounts. one of the things you have to worry about is not just countries that are not doing that well and need some money, but the economy of the entire because your job is to help promote stability, development, and also employment. how do you think we are better prepared around the world for another financial collapse of the type we had 10 years ago? christine: no, i think we are better prepared. we are better prepared because at least in certain areas, we have learned the lessons. when you look at the banking system, when you look at the ring of supervisors, when you look at the set of regulations that apply, i think in that particular sector, we are much better prepared. you know, the banks around the world, almost solid capital ratios, liquidity ratios,

politicised there, and also given that the opposition was facing its own problems because the chief of the bnpce tober, they came together. so they had opportunity to be a formidable opposition, if not winning. had there been a fair election, we would have known that. —— october. but at this point, what we have seen is not exactly a fair election. let's get some of the day's other news. a powerful storm in the philippines has killed at least 22 people. the philippine disaster relief agency said a tropical cyclone which moved through the eastern philippines's visayas and bicol regions had caused widespread landslides and flooding. local media say dozens of other people are missing or trapped by landslides. north korea's leader, kimjong—un, has written a letter to the south korean president, moonjae—in, saying he wants to hold more summits to discuss peace next year. the letter follows three meetings between the two sides in 2018. talks over north korea's weapons programme have stalled since mr kim met the us president donald trump in singapore in june. police in morocco say they've arrested a s

moving to financials, this bnp paribas story, a surprise.losing asset -- access to some u.s. pension assets. they are a minor player, but it is rare you have the u.s. government saying you cannot do this anymore. it is. if you're convicted of a felony, you are meant to lose this qualified professional asset. but by tradition, the labor department has usually granted exemptions. reached a settlement with the justice department over allegations it was men ambulating foreign-exchange prices. it did get that exemption ma, but now they say it was temporary and we are going to extend it. we do not know why that is the case, but starting in 2014, the labor department said it would take a harsher look at these exemptions and i guess have more scrutiny. you are seeing that play out here. david: it leads you to wonder if it is a general policy shift and if it applies to everyone or is there something we do not know about bnp paribas? erik: i would be cautious about extrapolating about this. it is not necessarily a very significant hit if they are not

, with great success, he has condemned the leadership saying they are in danger of becoming the new bnpsh defence league and take part in the street marches and so on that they are apparently going to be involved with. it is interesting for a number of reasons. it is interesting in and of reasons. it is interesting in and of itself about what it says about the kind of theatre of politics and rather than party politics, but it is also interesting for his position. steve bannon has been very vocally in support of tommy robertson calling him a hero, and nigel farage is now distancing himself from the man, steve bannon, who until a few months ago, he was on very friendly terms with, so it's an interesting shift position. scary story to end on the daily express, there was according to them a cold war plot to test a nuclear bomb in yorkshire. you see that image, and you're immediately pulled into the story. some very burmese cows with a mushroom cloud in the back! —— some very bemused towers. they found some memoranda about the british bomb project, and the americans were not allowing britons

bnp paribas are doing the honor as well. >> i had gary freedman on "mad money," we went through an extraordinary meat packing district he told me listen -- i am going to buy a million dollars worth of stocks. he bought some at 26 and 27. i said that's going to drive the stock. i was so wrong they reported. this is not an idle. this is one of the great mer che kma chants of our time you got to go, everyone when they visit new york should try to go to the amazing rooftop restaurants. >> it is one of the most exciting places that i have been to >> i went actually >> really? >> you know how great it is. >> it is all right >> oh my god >> it is in a cool building. >> i am never shopping with you or go to restaurants with you. >> i have seen many buildings. >> there is a lot of cool place going on here. >> just to go there? you are unbelievable >> why don't you go to century 21 >> you do, don't you >> that's where you got that tie. >> ywhy would i? >> you are frightening >> meanwhile, jim, you got some good news out of autozone as their comp stores are ahead of expectations >> they bought back a huge

bnp paribas with us. what do the greek letters tell you? >> the outlook is one of more volatility.arter for and that sets the theme for more volatility. tom: asymmetry was big in the powell press conference. that comes down to acceleration. , is that ane gamma opportunity to not lose money? >> it is a way to hedge your portfolio. tom: eventually. >> it depends on the outlook for the market. it is a good way to hedge your portfolio. francine: are you expecting more volatility? greg: absolutely. the corporate earnings outlook starts to soften further. the political landscape remains volatile and we could see bigger moves them what we have been accustomed to. francine: where does volatility come from? i think there are a number of different things that come together. the outlook statements for corporates become more cautious. we have a number of political catalysts, the shutdown, which is the hot topic of the moment. the trade negotiations as well linger. there are factors the drive volatility. tom: part of the confluence is the actors. they look south. -- is vectors. they look south.