bnp doubled its fixed-income trading.europe, yes, the numbers are bigger than consensus has got to. the market, we know where to put provisions. we are looking at 70 basis points for quite a few banks at the moment. will that the enough? probably not. bear in mind, we have changed the counting standards. if you think you're going to have a problem, -- banksb is encouraging the , you don't have to do it all at once. how long get will take -- how long it will take to understand the real risk of this crisis, definitely several more quarters. i suspect we will never get a full picture of how diary got. matt: which banks are faring the best in europe right now, jonathan? jonathan: [laughter] that's a tough one. the u.k. is getting completely obliterated. the stocks that have performed the best of their are the likes of the nordics and deutsche bank come over -- deutsche bank, for example. if you look at the banks that have pretty resilient business models that in a year, we may discover better, it probably is the big, universa

you have a good set of results for bnp paribas. they put about half a billion euros for loan loss provisions here looking ahead because of the impact of covid. they mention the ratio is still up 12% warning that the net profit for the bank in 2020 could be down between 15 to 20% for the bank with the cfo asking about the reaction and the commitment to the access to liquidity and whether in his view the bank was doing too much or not enough >> if you look at the banks today, banks are really the instrument to support the return of the economy it is important. it is important that banks can do this and do this in a right way. a look at the supervisors on one handcrystallize and before taking that out. on top of that, they are sure that monetary policy can find its way through the banks. if you add it all up, it is something the authorities are really doing so that the banks have played their roll in getting out of this covid-19 crisis >> there are questions on what kind of recovery they are going to get and maybe the damage done to t

that was guy johnson, with the cfo of bnp paribas, lars machenil.oming up, we will ask about oil, and about the values out there, and of course what it means for market valuation. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg ."rveillance i am francine lacqua in london. let's get back to john normand of jp morgan, where he is head of cross asset fund mental strategy. i know we spoke about the legality or not legality in terms of the ecb and the qe program. i want to get your thoughts on how damaging this could be. does it show that german courts are not, you know, and solidarity? could this be the start of the end of the euro project if countries feel they do not have enough support? does it rain in what the ecb can do? john: i think it is the beginning of the potential court challenge against the program because there has been a number of ways the ecb has constructed its programs to try to essentially allow debt monetization, which otherwise is prohibited by the lisbon treaty, and what happens with the newest incarnation of that, it was the sub

the warning from bnp paribas was significant.hey have been hit by three main andors associated with it, there is significant provisioning that goes along with it as well, though not as big as in the united states. last night, i talked with the machenil. lars risk backed upof by 500 million. the second effect is a one-off -- related to to italia investments in the p&l. they went down. this is a negative effect that would normally pay for that cut when the market returns. the third impact of covid-19 is when it comes to the decisions that have been taken by authorities to strongly recommend that dividends would be paid, which has an impact on our equity and derivatives activity. those are the impacts that weighed a bit on the results. guy: do you think we will have to see further provisioning? to give you a sense of what you think the trajectory of the nonperforming loan curve is going to look like. it, wef you look at have seen confinement that has been happening. that is what is weighing. the question is how we get out of this th

that was bnp paribas cfo lars mocoachenil. the estimate was four point eight 3 billion. a little stronger on the first quarter revenue that the first quarter adjusted ebit a number comes in at one edge of 54 million euros, down 32% year on year. not a huge flow in terms of numbers for adecco that we were warned this would be a tricky set of results because we are seeing the first concrete indication of the effect of covid-19 and the outlook will be super important especially as we look ahead to what is being called an unimaginable jobs report for the end of this week at of the u.s. we will talk about all of the employment trends. we will speak to adecco ceo alain pays coming up shortly. coming upehaze shortly. manus: we will see of governments have to do more in terms of re-employing. they are putting out their 2020 guidance. they see a bottoming out in the business in the third quarter. they talk about the adjusted number. for 500 63e was million. second-quarter revenue up by 5%. the companies including siemens healthineers on the way to delivering antibody tests. they

as it relates to bnp paribas, i don't expect for phase one more than 15% back on premises. is no rush, no urgency to get back because the bank is functioning effectively. what you told me 2.5 months ago we would be operating successfully with 95% of the staff working from home i think i would have been hard-pressed to believe you. getting -- dding.no ki are you looking at a smaller rental space, smaller office space, footprint, less people in the office? facebook said that would be there way forward. highlightingu are another important point which is what kind of structural changes we might be experiencing. you are working from home, going to be a trend to last. there will be collateral consequences. the one you mentioned, i believe companies will review their real estate footprint in the dense urban and various -- urban areas. we are getting used to business travel and doing it digitally. i see the structural changes coming from my clients this time. domestication of supply chains, economic, independent , on theould be a way planet rate is increasingly financially to contr

really good to catch up with you, jean-yves fillion of bnp paribas., all of this is contingent on how you treat the virus. andrd university astrazeneca are starting trials of one of the fastest moving vaccine candidates. we will break that down for you in today's tracking treatment. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: time now for tracking treatment. we are going to take a look at the latest of elements in the race to solve the covid-19 health crisis. going me is max nisen, bloomberg health care and pharma columnist. the latest is oxford and astrazeneca expanding their trial to move faster. what is the news here? is thathink the news this group and others are short of speeding up the parts that you can. they are starting trials faster than they usually would. they are enrolled larger groups of individuals. i think that is really important because we are rolling up towards the end of the things you can really realistically speed up. ,ctually running those trials which you desperately need to prove the safety and efficacy, definitely takes a while. you have to f

daniel morris, bnp paribas investment strategist, will be joining us. that is next.omberg. ♪ mberg. ♪ ♪ from london, i'm guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. we are counting you down to the european close here on "bloomberg markets." european equities just above the flat line this morning on the back of what is happening in china and hong kong come and we see the impact on what has happened with the chinese equity story as well. the hang seng overnight down by 5.5%. european equities now back to flat. we've got enemy copper -- we've got l.a. me copper -- we've got lme copper down by over 2%. the mix in terms of the sector story for equities here in europe i truly reasonably positive -- in europe actually reasonably positive most european markets have outperformed u.s. markets this week. vonnie: here in the u.s., we will have to see how the next fee hours go. right now we are down slightly for the s&p 500

paribas, ies to bnp don't expect for phase one more than 15% back on promises.ncy to get back on promises because the bank is really functioning very effectively. had you told me to it half months ago that we would be operating successfully with 95% of the staff working from home, i think i would be hard-pressed to believe you. alix: no kidding. been hard-pressed to say i was broadcasting from might homes though i'm with you on that. i wonder how that comes out on the other end, structurally. are you looking at a smaller rental place or office space? there was a bombshell yesterday from facebook saying that would be their way forward. >> your highlighting another is whatt point which kinds of structural changes we will be experiencing. working from home is going to be a trend to this day and there -- workinglateral from home is going to be a trend to stay and there will be a collateral footprint. i do believe as well we will be reviewing business travel. we are getting used to doing this so digitally. i see the structural changes coming for my clients this time.

that is daniel morris, senior investment strategist at bnp paribas asset management. let's check global markets now. here's taylor riggs. taylor: big companies are really outperforming some of the smaller companies. you see that by the s&p outperforming the equal weight index. health care also a sector we are looking at. suppressorn immuno remdesivir gilead's in a late stage trial. a vaccine booster is also moving the health care sector today. lower after president trump is expected to sign an effective order that would make social mediahold companies liable for curbing free speech. twitter getting hit harder on that. a few earnings movers i wanted to look at. dollar tree, big earnings boost. comp sales are up. customers really going there. but when looking to restart production for the 737 max. moderna extending the deal to boost their vaccine candidate output, certainly giving metal lift. finally, you mentioned oil at the top of the hour, so i wanted to take a look at a terminal we are showing here. oil inventories, you can see a big buildup, which means people are

this time, a warning from bnp paribas.rench banks as net income this year will be 15% to tony percent lower than 2019. in the first -- to 20% lower than 2019. quarter, it set aside for charges and write-downs. more cuts on the way at united airlines. in october, the carrier will cut at least 30% of its managerial and administrative jobs, about 3500 positions. plus, managers and other workers must take off 20 days without pay. united warns that the airline will not rebound quickly from the coronavirus crisis. neiman marcus is now close to a bankruptcy deal with lenders led by pimco. bloomberg has learned the agreement would slash by more than half the department store's net debt loans. in return, pimco would take over the company. that is your bloomberg business flash. one of the things i am watching today is the so-called investor class will have to pay for the debt stemming from the coronavirus outbreak, according to guggenheim securities co. jim milstein -- securities cochairman jim milstein. >> one thing investors need

closed higher as well gains around two and a half percent- in paris and frankfurt sure the french lender bnp barry about rose four percent. despite a 33% drop in its first quartrter i it will try to tell also rising 8% as. profits slump. about a third for the first quarter we'll pray meanwhile been rising sure. this a us w. surged 20% on tuesdayy to sesete at about twenty dollarss fiftyty six cents per barrel. international brandnds att just undeder thiy one dodollars thats up 14% on the day. of producers do hope that demand will start gradadually increasining. as economies startrt t to open agan analysts sayaying that the worst of the oil demand crisis could now be behind us. hey buddy how business editor thank you for. she see him. bristolian health workers are fighting back against the corona viruses taken roots in parts of the coununtry especially the arizona state the country's hottest hates so proving very difficult battle though especially w witha president who's a sticking to his guns the insisting the measures to stop the spread of the virus aren't over reactctio. well as of the ear

turkey lifting a ban on lifting a band with bnp paribas in the u.s.y met local obligations to turkish lenders. this is according to people familiar with the matter, so we will spend some time understanding exactly what that means for euro markets. turkey imposing the band last week after market interventions, and rules failed to stem. we will have plenty more on turkey and on the u.k.. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: u.k. prime minister boris johnson announces his plan to restart the economy. restrictions on movement will be eased wednesday. some shops and schools could open in june. in the u.s., president trump urges americans back to work while combating a coronavirus outbreak amongst white house staffers. vice president pence is self-isolating following his press secretary's diagnosis. and the european commission threatens to sue germany, while president ursula von der leyen issues a strong rebuke over the constitutional court's ruling on ecb bond purchases. hi, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. tom kee

bnp paribas estimate some 30 million people in china were unemployed or furloughed as a result of the pandemic, so they are targeting 9 million new jobs, which is significant, but lower than last year's 11 million. they will commit to this phase one trade deal with the u.s., which is a positive sign that there is a thin thread of --ration amid teary ration thread of cooperation amid deterioration in every other area. more u.s. goods purchases amid this economic backdrop. francine: selina, thank you so much, selina wang from beijing. coming up, despite the tough talk from president trump, china is still going to enter the phase of the trade deal. we will talk u.s.-china relations and what they mean for the global economy. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash is in new york city, here is ritika gupta. good morning. ritika: good morning. the pandemic will probably reach the pandemicus -- will probably reach the p

and bnp paribas shares rise on resilient earnings, despite a $1.2 billion hit from the coronavirus hitrnoon, good evening, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we had an eventful last hour as german following the court decision on the legality of the qe, the judges taking their time to figure out and explain to the world exactly what they were looking at. tos is a case that goes back 2015. waseems that in the end, it a little bit in favor of the european central bank. the judge is quite nuanced, saying the ecb, some rtof

we talked about bnp paribas' forecast where you may look at 100 50 million people unemployed in chinaurloughed. the official jobless rate is expected to improve to 5.8%, but that only accounts for urban workers, so that is the key caveat. what this means is we are looking for more policy responses and the international people's congress, but for more details on that, the pboc has a more powerful set of policy measures, and we are waiting for those details. a trimming of the medium-term that we would be looking at yesterday. that may happen today as well. the retail sector remains on the pressure -- remains under pressure. emily: tom mackenzie there in beijing. of course, we are awaiting the slew of china numbers. we will get more analysis on the chinese economy from guests later on. let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. the ok tos has won enter china's credit rating market. says it will be allowed to conduct bond raising operations in the chinese market. the news comes as a record amount of bonds are offered with chinese companies and local governments ra

it's notable in hsbc and bnp paribas providing this.r banks haven't told us how many exemptions they have in this period. it's quite possible there's a lot of other banks that have had the same types of failings. we just don't know about them yet. it's more than likely, in a few months, we will see the same kind of reports coming out of banks. got,seem, from what we've they are pretty reasonable explanations for why they have seen these types of moves. you don't get a lot of information from banks for exactly what's going on because of commercial sensitivity and all of that. harry, really interesting story. it'll be interesting when the details start to emerge. harry wilson. this is bloomberg. ♪ w?w?uhió'ñó guy: from london, i'm guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." coming up, we have "balance of power" with david westin. what's he going to be talking about? one of the big stories, disney. analyst will be joining us. one of the big stories on your side of the pond. vonnie: absolut

repateriation of funds that should help according to authorities here global institutions like global, ubs and bnp will invest in chinese stocks and bonds more readily. these regulations go into effect june 6 the state media has been ramping up the argument that china is making good on the trade deal. saying china has been buying u.s. soy and meat. there have been plenty of reminders how important the chinese consumer is to american companies. disney had a good day because shanghai park sold out for the first day in three minutes and the first week in one hour there is definitely demand for the theme park when it opens next monday. >> wow so again, here we go i'm going to ask you for your real world, the yoon-indicator with 10 being back to normal, one being the height of the pandemic where would you say your day-to-day work life stands right now? where are you? >> i'd say five. five yeah there are days when you think, okay, we can go out, traffic is out there, we are going to restaurants more, daring to shop as well. at the same time, i was thinking about traveling this weekend got a little nervo

let's bring in daniel morris from bnp to get his take on all of this. he is going to give us his view. he is the global market strategist. what do you make of this, and how is this going to change your equation when it comes to looking at global markets? if china and the united states increasingly go at each other, could that -- each other, that can't be good for growth. daniel: on the one hand, it is sort of pleasantly familiar, back to what we saw before the pandemic hit. so it is a nice change of pace. if we look at the lessons from of those experiences, this has been an undercurrent theme. i think we need to put it in the context of the u.s. election. for most leaders, they have to consider domestic audiences, so , int of that is just that terms of strategy ahead of the election, given that he isn't going to be able to run on an outstanding economic performance. at the same time, there are going to be real consequences. sayhe one hand, trump will or quit something -- or tweak something -- or tweet something, and markets will react. i think the chall

we know that was a point of difficulty for both bnp paribas on socgen on the trading side. credit agricole more to diversified.- more richard clarida is optimistic in his outlook for the u.s. economy on that front. we will discuss that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: this is daybreak europe. i am manus cranny in dubai. nejra cehic alongside me. just how severe the slowdown in the u.s. will be. clara data committing -- clara data -- richard clarida committing to do more. china comes back on board to the s&p 500. it really slashed into the -- so we are playing recovery. there seems to be a little bit of criticism of the ecb bond buying. we will have a look at the bond market and dollar-yen at a seven week high. crude recovers. you did put on 20% yesterday. have we reached the nadir in terms of demand instruction? stay tuned because we have our guest joining us from blackrock to talk about commodities. to the fed story, the vice chairman, richard clarida, as i said, is optimistic that u.s. economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year. that is despite acknowl

bnp paribas say 131 million or and it isobs or really closer to 12% for the jobless rate.hey see the market will shed 10 million positions when the government hoped to add 10 million. all of this is going to weigh on consumption and you have got the external picture west remains bleak, china facing a serious spill back with the global demand picture remaining week. major economies that are most affected by the virus, including the u.s., asia and europe, will pose a drag on china's output. we heard from the finance minister in china a few hours ago in the people's daily saying the virus hit the government revenues and the deficit will be increased. we are waiting for the details on that at the national people's congress next week. haslinda: tom mackenzie in beijing. coming up, coronavirus creeping up as china seals off areas near the north korean border. macau has 50 cases. this is bloomberg. ♪ newsad: of it of breaking -- a bit of breaking news, korean air seeking to raise one point trillion -- 300,000,000,001 -- 300 billion won. this sharen from sale. and some government

cut and long way, so the thing we have learned is companies are not all position to give guidance and bnply the only one that has given quite strong guidance. revenue pain, we do not know how bad it is yet, but we are beginning to see the rate cuts, but on the flipside of that, banks are starting to tell us, we've got the enormous government-sponsored programs in place, so don't take an ax to .ur numbers the feds are recalling 40-odd percent from this year's highs, ,ut most results so far actually stocks have been up reasonably well, 3% or 4%. matt: i was just going to ask about the market reaction here. as you say, we've seen a 40% -- 600ly 45% drop on the stoxx bank index. how much do analysts care about the numbers we are seeing right now in terms of selling the stock off further, or is everything priced in, at least for this quarter? >> i think the issue is next year. at where numbers are for this year, and i think that probably captures most of the worst case scenario, but next year, numbers have not moved much. the unknowns are things like loan growth. we know the world has ground t

was an okay year for european financials, but this year has been terrible i'm seeing blue chips like bnp down, credit suisse down 40%. these are businesses that have been able to protect and in some cases like credit suisse in particular grow their earning streams despite the low rates. as a result we're trending 30% or 40% of book value, which is substantially below previous lows in 2007, 2008, 2009, when they had a lot less capital. they're safer, diversified their earnings streams and their valuation multiples are as low as they've ever been this is why we believe there's such an opportunity here >> david herro, thanks for joining us this is the last commercial we take before we head into the close, which is just 16 minutes away down 2.5% on the dow every financial plan needs a cfp® professional -- confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. there are times when our need to connect really matters. to keep customers and employe