meghan: at bnp we are expecting fewer than that. we have two rate cuts of 25 basis points for the rest of the year. if we do get weaker employment data -- to us that means something like 135k or less or potentially the unemployment move up, we think that might justify a 50 basis point move. the pce data we got will give some credence. for now our base case is the two 25 cuts. sonali: where is the base case and what is behind changing expectations? mark: our base case is different. we think it will go 50 at the november meeting and another 25 in december. very much in line with what the market is expecting although the market is uncertain about the exact pace over november and december. why the shift? obviously the fed just cut 50. they are normalizing monetary policy. we do not know where they will normalize to. the highest dot is at 3.75%. if that is normal the fed has 100 basis points of normalization to do. they do not want to see further deterioration in the labor market. that is some of the thinking behind our shift. sonali: i'

trang nguyen from bnp paribas joins us next.ls on how to position in em as we build up to the expected cut from the federal government. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the fed's first rate cut in four years is widely expected on wednesday with other key decisions around the world this week. let's ring in my next guest, trang nguyen, from bnp paribas for a few on how this likely fed cut is going to ripple across the em space. let's check with where bnp paribas stands on 25 or 50. jp morgan reiterating that the fed will go with 50. where does bnp paribas stand with that expectation? trang: it is quite the debate. i've heard you discuss this extensively this morning. at bmp we think it will be 25. the last payroll support was strong enough. last week's inflation data was sufficiently strong enough in our view to justify a 25 basis point cut. we are looking at a soft landing. the synchronized coming cycle means central banks will added -- will adequately deliver rate cuts that ar

bnp paribas wealth management in hong kong is sticking around. still to come, we will speak with j.p. morgan's go-ahead of global banking about why they are turning bullish on india and japan. plus, the eq e asia chairman joins us to discuss the outlook for private equity in the region. those exclusive interviews just ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> if conditions continue like this, there are a lot of cuts to come over the next 12 months. >> there was virtually unanimity about that. whether the next one is 25, 50 or zero or whatever, my view is, over the next 12 months we have a long way to come down to get the interest rate to something like neutral instead of try to hold the conditions where they are. >> momentous to remove the monetary policy-wise. taking that step does not block us in a cadence for further moves. i think it's important that no one think we are in a rush to get to a mutual level, given the amount of uncertainty in the economy, being more patient will be valuable. haslinda: fed president rafael bostic and a

bnp expects mastercard's revenue growth to slow mastercard down a quarter of a percent now.a and pepsi. shares of papa johns and pepsico both bubbling up after securing a long-term partnership extension. papa john's says today it's renewed 10 year contract with pepsico as its exclusive beverage supplier for restaurants in north america. it will also support papa john's marketing efforts through additional investment. we've got papa john's up 1%, pepsico jumping 2.25% so you think well what's that doing to coca cola? the tie-up is not hurting coca cola with a deal of its own with 7-eleven. launching today, are you ready? the coca cola oreo slurpie. [laughter] oh, i'm rushing out to get one. coke shares hitting an intraday all-time high of $73.29. it's still above 73 right now and of course, that is a very big move. three-quarters of a percent to an intraday all-time high. take a look at unity software the platform that allows gamers to create and build immersive video game content is rallying 2.5% had been higher on the left side of the intraday picture there, after morgan st

sophie, senior strategist at bnp paribas, thank you indeed.head to the ecb and how to position. betting big on european tech. next, find out why a firm is investing into europe's game chaser. they have raised 1.2 billion u.s. dollars. we will talk about how they plan to deploy the cash. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg. big day for apple with the first ai smartphone unveiled. our big take looks at its rise. let's bring in matt, tech analyst at bloomberg intelligence. what to expect? how consequential could this be? matt: we heard about their ambitions in june, this might be underwhelming. it will look like the 15, a platform for new features pushed out so it will be interesting how hard they push the teachers. rolled out late this year and a few other things like action buttons and a new button that is like the capture button on a digital camera. that is a new feature you can upgrade for. the pro and promax will be bigger, so no overwhelming updates. definitely pushing ai but it may be delayed excitement given these featur

now the main district council there had a bnp councillor.u remember when nick griffin was on the, question time and there was all the hoo ha about it. so nick griffin came to the by to the election to try and get bnp in. so, that's my sort of first taste of doing some national media. >> yeah. so yeah, it was bnp and that sort of thing, that sort of i mean, people like me get labelled as far right all the time. so do i. i'm sure you do. i mean, that's a lot of nonsense, surely. nonsense, surely. >> nonsense, surely. >> well, you and i. yeah, of course it is. yes, but i mean , course it is. yes, but i mean, why i decided to stand though. lee, back to your original question . as an mp, it was question. as an mp, it was actually the awful care in the nhs in which my dad died, literally. he should have had a ten minute operation to drain fluid off his lungs. and trainee doctors practised on him for 2.5 hours, and he died of mrsa. so that's what made me decide to sell my house, move in with my mum to then try and get the seat off ed balls, which i

that's why we heard from bnp. you need scale and consolidation. >> we'll have it. we'll have it.love consolidation. as a matter of fact, sabadell had eight mergers of con consol consolidation. so, we believe in size and consolidation, but it has to have the right elements. it has to be right and it has to have price. it has to have friendliness, this is hostile. it has to have the agreement of the stakeholders. this one has none. consolidation is great. we believe this consolidation is great. hostile takeovers in banking usually don't succeed. >> do you believe then in cross-border consolidation? there is a case within the commerzbank. is there a way for cross border consolidation? >> absolutely. active or passive or bhwhatever. we believe in the national ones. the problem is where they get to the point in the overlap in the segment is crucial in smes breaks down everything. it is not that the consolidation is not good, it is about the stakeholders. that's what we are all for. >> excellent. it is great to get your thoughts. ceo of sabadell. why his bank is better off staying inde

trying to fall through the kursk soil to save himself, tanks, armored cars, bugs are burning, this is a bnpopinion mardor, here too there is a mardor submachine gun. the occupiers took it out on civilians, leveled the ground, the village of vesyoloye, first the gas was broken under the station to the bottom, then the tower. step, step of a man. despite the attempts of the armed forces of ukraine to tear our forces apart with strikes at new points of the border, russian troops continue to squeeze the occupiers out of the kursk region on a broad front. dmitry kulko, andrey podgornov, ilya repnin, channel one. in crimea , fsb officers detained two saboteurs, a local resident and a foreigner. they were collecting information about transport infrastructure and military bases, transmitting air defense coordinates to the enemy and ships, sent photos of our trains, acted on the orders of their curators. sergey lavrov called for the un not to be drawn into politicized pseudo-peace initiatives on ukraine. the head of our ministry of foreign affairs met with the organization's secretary general antoni

for bnp, that was investigated for allegations of racism.. now it seems. allegations of racism. no way back for him. now it seems . and back for him. now it seems. and now he's formed this motley alliance with a bunch of mps, which nigel farage would say they embody sectarian politics. what's your take on this? >> well, i sort of rather agree with that. i mean, jeremy went past any possible defence of him and his politics when he laid a wreath for black september in tunisia. black september, you'll remember, were a group that murdered israeli athletes at the 1972 munich olympic games , and 1972 munich olympic games, and they murdered them because they were jewish for no other reason . were jewish for no other reason. so it was a racist murder. so i think that put jeremy beyond the pale. is always referred to hamas in in gaza as friends. so isuppose hamas in in gaza as friends. so i suppose he is happier now. he won't have to dance on the head of a pin about whether he really is friends with terrorist organisations or not, and when you look a

this is the bnp, in my opinion, the marder, here too. occupiers took it out on civilians, leveled the village of vesyoloye with the ground, first they smashed the gas under the station to the bottom, then they knocked down the tower, well, not just one, all with water, then they smashed the light, all the substations, the paratroopers evacuated people continue to fight for every fifth of our land, for every house, ivan borodenko lived on the very edge vesyologo, the street of the strip where the militants were breaking through, they went there, our guys, near my house by the fence. all this is what they were fighting, when i came up in the morning, there are just heaps of these cartridges, the winged infantry, which is heroically supported by our artillery, here they notice the enemy on the farm, a shot, for this, that is, we are there, even if suddenly they break through somewhere there and stop, they don’t have time, they are not dug in there, nothing, and we cover them accordingly, the enemy is visible, he is a little bit wound up, bu

there are questions about bnp, but there was a political dimension to this.e one hand government wants to maximize the return, so they will go for the biggest bitter -- bidder. they will come under intense pressure. one, unions who were trying to build political pressure so that it does not get taken over. you have these nationalist forces in the far left that want to hold on to what they see as their wealth as a nation. all of these pressures coming together. we have heard from the greens who said they are ok with cross-border mergers. we also heard from the opposition right now saying they do not want the government to be guided by financial aspects of the deal, to consider other aspects, which is funny to hear from this cdu given that they are so focused on the health of the german economy. tom: that twist and turns and implications for the broader banking space in europe. we will be speaking with unicredit ceo about the increased stake in commerzbank. at that exclusive interview is that 9:38 a.m. on the pulse. the ecb widely expected to cut its key deposi

beginning of the invasion of the kursk region, and now they are using it very wastefully, this is the bnp my opinion mardor, it is also here, the occupiers took it out on civilians, they leveled the village of vesyoloye with the ground, first they smashed the gas under the station to the bottom. in the winged infantry, which stands heroically, our artillery helps, here they notice enemy on the farm: for this, that is, we are there, even if suddenly they break through, stop somewhere there, they don’t have time, they are not dug in there or anything, and we cover them accordingly, and the enemy is visible, that he has got a little bit more excited, but still seems to be showing his teeth, which we will break off, ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are trying to stick their noses in, they are being tracked in the forests by airborne snipers. they are producing in groups of five or six people, and at first they noticed one person, they worked on him. in the platoon of a sniper with the call sign north, there is reinforcement, his nineteen-year-old son came as a volunteer, to drive

let's bring in the global head of research from bnp paribas. >> thank you, frank. >> let's start offforce. do you expect any announcements? whether a.i. agents or financial guidance that you think will move the stock? >> so, we do think it is a hugely important event for salesforce with the a.i. strategy. we are not convinced it will be important for the stock. two reasons. one is that we will get a lot of product and customer announcements, but the a.i. strategy is still taking shape. two years ago, they talked about genie. last year, they talked about einstein 1.0. they need to settle down and make that strategy clearer for customers to commit. the second thing on the financial front, there will be an analyst and investor presentation tomorrow. we are not certain the ceo and cfo will be there. we are not expecting changes to guidance. there is a cfo transition under way. because of those two things, we don't think it will be a significant catalyst for the stock this week. >> not a significant catalyst for the stock. we had a guest on earlier in the show who said the a.i. agents may

benedicte lowe at bnp paribas. sehe ahead, set to relea t necabcabinet, but it comes amid the key debt dilemma for the country. we'll discuss. kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. >>> france is on the brink of having a new government with the prime minister set to propose his ca

apart from the bnp and the kind of people who's been jumping into bed with recently shook up arade damh acorn, dam leicester, south acorn, birmingham, perry barr, adnan hussein, blackburn, iqbal, mohammed in dewsbury and batley all said they won that election for gaza, especially iqbal mohammed in dewsbury and batley. the batley grammar school teacher, still in hiding three years later, not a peep out of mr mohammed about one of his constituents. is that the danger corbyn will just give a guise to a new political movement solely along sectarian, divisive politics? precisely what nigel farage said would happen . farage said would happen. >> well, i think, as i said, what's interesting is that this, initiative that he has spoken at didn't include the palestinian independence he's formed a separate alliance with them working in parliament, but hasn't included them in this meeting today, according to reports. so that would maybe indicate that he wants a broader, bigger coalition. however, do you think we've got to be careful not to condemn elected people that got elected by the by the peop

coming up, jim, we catch up with david of ups, and victor york of bnp paribas.t. ♪ new projects means new project managers. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. which makes it easier for y"soulmates."hem. soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. >> the need to gather in the room we think about doing to go towards 25 or 50. >> the

works for everybody's struggle at the same time, they also have the support of nick griffin of the bnpy about who joins their side. i can understand why people on the right or the far right wouldn't be that fussy about who's joining their side ehhen >> paul, i've got no gotcha questions on this one. >> no thank you. big stretch, though, isn't it, to say that it's tommy robinson that's behind, you know, the sikhs, the jews, the hindus disliking the muslims. these things were going on long before stephen yaxley was born. you know , he's not. was born. you know, he's not. his comment on this was you know, he thinks that the ai is fake news and he's not going to comment on it, he he may well be doing something in the background, but make no mistake, this this is sort of reverse dye. they're throwing this against tommy robinson. and on this particular occasion, i think these these particular groups historically have already already got a problem with islam. >> well, that's the end of part three. in the final section, it's fights in pubs and paralympic cheating. some them are on drugs. oh, n

n thethe bureau of narcotic enforcement, also known as bnp ,targeted gangs, traffickers, violent criminalsalbut in 2011, kamala and then governor jerry brown liquidated it. >> it poof. 400 agents gone.er e firemany were fired, and the h agents were delegated to trash duty investigating things like the illegal smuggling of aluminuinvestigm recyclable . what happened next? well, the year kamala became - attorney general, california ber 120,000 drug arrests. >> the year she left, justthey d 29,000. they didn't stop selling drugs e . >> they just stopped prosecuting the sale. cartels thrived and californians died. calig outr agent speakin for the very first time, telling chris hansen it was all part of kamala's vision to reimagine policing. >> it was the beginning of it,bi and we were just starting to see it. nnin werit's been around for manyyer years, but it had started to increass se. and we warned her,to g this is going to getet outh th of control. >> if if you abolishe agents ths that are tackling it and it dea went on deaf ears. the motivation behind it wasea political. >> her words worse

around the table now, meghan robson of bnp paribas. good morning.e story may change from september into november, take on more of a political twist be read reading your research on credit, this is heavy on politics. meghan: i review heading into the next six or eight weeks is bearish on credit. investors are under appreciating policy risk. typically when you head into an election, you see volatility rise. given you have a binary outcome with two very different implications, investors tend to de-risk portfolios, reduce positions, and that causes credit spreads to widen. heading into november, we think credit spreads will widen. jonathan: does policy factor into this? meghan: policy certainly factors in. you have two very different candidates. you take an issue like corporate taxes, for example, if you get a sweep in either direction, you could see net income up 7%. on the other hand, can be down 7%. the inability to predict either outcome drive to the de-risking into the event. following that, depending on what outcome we get, we could see dispersion

the only party apart from the bnp. so you know this happens. >> yeah. okay. does happen. and that's going to be a bigger problem. i think, for reform going forward. because if you track all the sister parties in europe , there sister parties in europe, there are a lot of what you might call old adams. there i'm not going to list them. martin. you know them as well as i do. they're them as well as i do. they're the kind of remarks the late at night in a working men's club or in a posh club in, in mayfair. people can get away with those kind of remarks. but in modern britain , modern france, you just britain, modern france, you just can't say any of that in public. when it's about women, whether it's about muslims, whether it's about black people, whether it's about black people, whether it's about brown people, it's about jewish people. you just can't say it. so, i mean, i wish reform luck. i mean, as i said, if nigel's coming up with sensible european ideas on reforming the health service, let's hear them. he's very keen on proportional representation. so may

this -- best example could be some of the european financials as an example, bnp, is, you know, one ofdes at about six times earnings, you know, 8 or 9%, has excess capital on the balance sheet, but trades at a discount say to its u.s. peer jpmorgan which trades at 1.6 times book value. the stocks have done already because the earnings have been going up double-digit and so have the share prices, but the valuations remain muted. i think a lot -- >> what's going to change that, david? what's going to change that? >> i think they have to continue to demonstrate earnings growth and then the enough has to come off with companies that are priced to perfection. when you see that, you'll see a rotation and when that rotation does happen, i believe it will be quite explosive. >> but -- >> david -- >> i get the same -- i get the same questions from my clients. we know they're good value. we know they're throwing off lots of cash and paying it to their owners, but what's going to change? i think eventually the value of financial asset is the free cash which it generates. if you want to pay a low

about english identity was completely indistinguishable from the staff that you used to hear from the bnpevens, screwing his face up. the union jack has for today is prince harry. i can understand sometimes people saying, you know, maybe we should take the word man power out of things and all this wokester. i don't agree with it, but this doesn't even make sense. >> what's he saying? >> what's he saying? >> mental fitness. >> mental fitness. >> he's replacing mental health with mental fitness. >> yeah, the word mental press ups. >> so the word health is offensive. to who? i don't get it. >> he's completely out of touch. this is someone who has never had to work a day in his life. >> well, he's our he's our union jackass. for today, esther. stephen. jonathan, thank you for joining me. thank you at home for joining me as well. patrick forjoining me as well. patrick is back tomorrow from 9 pm. next up, it's headliners and that's after your weather with alex deakin. good night. good night . night. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on . solar sponsors of weather on. gb.

the third call, bnp paribas downgrading micron technology to underperform cutting the price target to will underperform and -- underperform in artificial intelligence. divergence growing between intel and nvidia. william stein covers semis and ai for truest. william, the divergence you are expecting, the theme can you build it out more? william: certainly we have a view that semis are in an upswing in aggregate. the end markets and products are seeing very divergent trends. for at least a year we have seen broad-based markets, like industrial and automotive, drag. for folks or just looking at companies that serve those end markets, we are at a downturn at the bottom. those who are focused on ai names, you are seeing tremendous growth. in aggregate it means that we have been in an upturn in semis for a year and a half is good. it is a story of haves and have-nots with ai-focused companies led by nvidia doing well and fundamentals drop. lisa: i wonder what you make of the recent volatility in nvidia shares. we saw a comment from jen-hsun huang saying that people are feeling anxious and

retail sales and bnp on why the fnp will start small. the stockmarket rally on hold. split over the expected magnitude of today's anticipated rate cut. dan suzuki saying the question really isn't whether the fed cuts 25 or 50, but whether you are actually going to get the nearly 200 basis points of cuts that are priced over the next six months. good morning to you, sir. >> good morning. >> to achieve a degree of rate cut that, do we need a slowdown that this equity market is ultimately not going to like? . >> that's exactly right. you have to see further declines in inflation beyond the 2% level and further declines in gdp and economic earth. you're just not seeing those. even unemployment where i do agree that the employment market has softened since the last meeting. jobless claims had spiked, they've come back down. give nymex a prices are up. employment diffusion is up. i'm not trying to say that everything is rainbows and went that things aren't falling off and they never do fall off as fast as the market ask them to. jonathan: let's say we do get decent growth a

jonathan: dan morris of bnp paribas on the latehow close isg there is a press conference and maybe we announce something more overnight. how much are they holding back some of this for the election and what levers can they pull? economists saying stimulate the housing market, put a floor under some of the declines you've seen. does that what they're looking for? jonathan: equity futures up .2%. with an update, here's your bloomberg brief. yahaira: at least six people are dead in japan after record meant of rain triggered flooding and landslides. evacuations were ordered for more than 100,000 people in the government issued some of the most severe emergency warnings for heavy rain. the country's weather agency says saturdays rainfall reach the highest daily tally for the area since the agency began recording data. meanwhile ukrainian president zelenskyy is in the united states. on sunday he kicked up his visit with a stop at a name edition plant in pennsylvania. later this week he is said to address the yuan general assembly in new york. he is also scheduled to meet with president joe