daniel morris from bnp paribas .e wrong i estimate with the toughest question in central banking. it is actually jordan? daniel: it is hard to see what is going on with the currency and how he will turn that around. switzerland is a unique case. it just makes this job that much more difficult to some degree. switzerland is the victim of its own success in an environment when people still have concerns about the euro. guy: it is significantly overvalued and they don't see inflation positive until 2016. -.2 5% previously, but they don't see it going positive until 2017. that is a long time. daniel: japan is the kiss of what you don't want to do. -- japan is the example of what you don't want to do. guy: they try to push through the negative rate, but still, they say the currency is significantly overvalued. a are blown around by the winds of much bigger central banks. jonathan ferro is normally sitting next to me. what are your thoughts on what we have heard so far? let me read you back through what they are saying. ev

he is with bnp paribas. coming up, we will talk about a slower american economy.dity knock on effect. later this morning, our guests. bloomberg "surveillance" on radio. stay with us. ♪ tom: welcome to fantasy land company as iron ore and -- rio capex.uts , theyats and republicans scream as donald trump screams "keep the muslims out." hillary calls trump divisive. and on america posner non-recession, recession, lakshman achuthan. "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. jon ferro is in london. what have you learned in the last 24 hours? jon: what we thought was cheap is not necessarily cheap. trying to figure this out. we do not know where the bottom as, and you know what? went on think we will know for quite some time yet. it is a big deal. us onaul gate will join the state of write-downs and balance sheet adjustments. right now, our first word news this morning from london. 's call to banp muslims from entering the u.s. is being widely been announced, even by fellow republicans. jeb bush calls him unhinged, john kasich said i

bnp paribas is writing down part of the goodwill related to its italian unit. the move will result in a reduction of portfolio earnings around 900 million euros. the bank has maintained plans to pay out dividends. int, winners are losers 2015. from the rout in commodity shares to the stocks you never heard of but wish you bought. we will talk about all that in just a moment. ♪ guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse ." we live on bloomberg tv. egypt's central bank is due to make a call on interest rates today. the decision has been delayed in order for the governor to meet with top government ministers. egypt's economy is facing a foreign exchange crunch. alex joins us now, bloomberg's middle east editor. why was this delayed, first of all? this is meant to the a normally independent central bank. why do we have a delay? >> the central bank is independent under law. we have the delay because the governor -- they should have said they cannot achieve the price stability mandate without the full commitment of the government on areas that include fiscal cons

at next year and look back at 2007, the bnp paribas operatingre is a fund in the distressed and of theket you can almost predict they are going to have problems getting out when they need to. the question is, whether that is a bigger issue, from the distressed to the investment grade, does this become a bigger problem? it -- what if it triggers an unwind? yes, it could trigger something bigger. >> it will be slightly less sanguine. 2007, times were a lot easier. the amount of confidence which had to be reversed, had to be a lot higher. if you get banks, the level was a lot lower. is it a moment which is important? yes. jonathan: don't get ahead of the curve here. the world is better prepared, but as is is highlighted, it will trigger to the lesser classes. jonathan: antonin, stay with us as we will talk about what it means to the equity markets as well. just a couple of minutes away from the open. 13 minutes to be precise. we will look at the corporate including the bg deal which receives the green light. ahead of the open, 12 minutes away. futures ahead in london. ♪ guy: it is 7:51 in

bnp paribas is writing down some of the goodwill related to what units.e's against bank is setting aside more capital for the italian corporate union -- corporate unit. they reiterated their plan to pay 45% of their profit in s.vidend japan's central bank announced it would not expand its main stimulus target. mistake, japan is heading in the right direction with wages in the labor market continuing to show improvement. i think a virtuous circle has finally begun in the stock market will follow the meaningful improvement of the economy. with the effort the government is making, i'm not worried about what the market does. apple pay is hoping to grow into europe. it has had a sluggish start since debuting a year ago. for a bloomberg quick take, where we provide context and background in the interest britain leave the european union? a bloomberg poll showed 43% of economists said a british departure from the european union is the biggest threat to the u.k. economy. the referendum vote could come as soon as the middle of next year. pathsrits want to follow si

we were looking at a currency forecast coming from bnp paribas -- the french franc looks at march.04 by the end of versus the dollar. not only do we see this losing streak for the euro versus the dollar as we have divergent policy pans in europe and the united states, but also the forecast for that continue, and also the continued euro weakness. betty: thank you so much. julie hyman there at the markets desk. let's check the headlines with the bloomberg first word news. running greeley has more. brennan -- brendan greeley has more. brendan: the president traveled to mclean, virginia, to meet with officials from the terrorism center any updated the nation. president obama: at this moment our intelligence and counterterrorism professionals do not have any specific and credible information about an attack on the homeland. brendan: the president is trying to reassure americans the government is doing all it can to protect them. the u.s., the u.k., and france, are going after the islamic state's money, asking the united nations security council to find and cut off the source of funds. the

our view of bnp paribas is that the market went into that fed decision only modestly positioned longs. and i think we got the decision that was expected, maybe a little more hawkish than the market was flirting with, given dots had not changed, and i think the market scrambled to buy dollars. you have the commodity weakness playing in there, too. francine: what does it mean? steven: the aussie is very tolerable. the key thing my would look at iron ore is very relevant for us, falling sharply as well. we would argue it is lagging. the aussie is still trading around $.71. we think it goes around $.67 into the next year. top three calls for 2016? >> for me is the japanese equities markets. it is the only situation this year where dollar profits have been rising, and we can go again. for me it is japanese equities. shortd: i would say the euro versus the dollar, and the -- francine: i am still thinking about the yen. the layout cost. tom: thank you so much, particularly for the perspective on the bank of japan. we have a special treat. rachel, tell me if i am wrong on this. joining richa

in business news, bnp paribas is writing down part of its see in dell unit.biggest bank says it is setting aside more capital for the italian, corporate, and consumer banking units. the bank reiterated its plan to pay 45% of its profits and dividends. dayal news 24 hours a powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 bureaus around the world. i'm vonnie quinn. betty? betty: much more in the next half hour of "bloomberg markets ." for your need netflix dose of drama. wall street has enough. a look at the top scandals of 2015. and the oil route dragging down energy companies. the point where it all turns around? ♪ >> we would like to welcome you on bloomberg television am bloomberg tv. this is bloomberg advantage. this is a roundup of what has been a difficult year for hedge funds, as much as we do not like to use that term as a catchall, catherine, it did seem that many of the big ones did feel some headway -- headwinds in that category, catherine. well-knownhad managers, known for their performance do horribly. bill ackman, david einhorn. their funds are down

the of the parabolic producing fourth quarter earnings by -- bnp paribas producing fourth quarter earnings5% of profits and dividends. mitsubishi said today its regional plane would not be ready until mid-2018. the jet debuted last month. technical issues must be resolved. and jamaica they bring to mind bob marley and run daiquiris, stock market had a better year than any other around the globe. the jamaican stock exchange surged more than 18% in 2015, bolstered by foreign acquisitions, stronger investor safeguards, and a rebounding economy. it has a market cap of about $5.3 billion, just a fraction of the dow's $5.2 trillion. i think i need a few minutes to come up with a joke about the jamaican stock exchange. tom: ok. in fashion, here is the worst part of the week -- in the "new york times" on saturday to sunday, down here at the bottom where they have got this ad, i will pronounce it -- out of venice, if somebody in the house says, oh, look at that bag. just moved from fifth avenue up to madison avenue. why do they do that? howard: first of all, your lease ends. now you have to negotia

people are making that comparison -- bnp paribas, bear stearns -- to this.mp of the vix on friday. some bond funds went up more than that. tinybigger scale, this is compared to what happened in the financial crisis. mean,ot think that -- i what really brought the financial crisis into our living room was the fact that the banks were all undercapitalized. they are much better capitalized now than they were at that point. i think this is just credit spreads were a little low given some of the economic fundamentals that were going on. given the market liquidity we are seeing, you're not expecting this to be contagious, or you are not expecting extended contagion to come from these fund closures? robert: i don't think so. we are respecting to see a modest rise in treasuries, and probably a little more of a rise in credit spreads. think this is going to be a big contagion to the rest of the market. engle, you are -- you came up with it a wild back. are the models that chair yellen is working with -- are they too --plex, or is the real feher or is the real fear th

watching.ing was a lot of people are making the comparison to bnp paribas, to bear stearns funds blowingnger of future crises. do you see the same thing happening today, or is this just the wages of excess? gary: i think it is more of that. you do not have the excesses by a long shot that you had in the mortgage market, the subprime mortgages. but one thing has happened, and steve was talking about this. you have those ultralow interest rates, and that has made investors jealous for yield, so they have been dumping money into junk bonds, and of course it took skill to default on the junk bonds in the last few years. there was so much money thrown at them. they took the money and a lot of it is now in jeopardy. i think there is probably going to be a lot more problems in the junk bond market. michael: is this going to be confined to people who should know better, professionals, and if they lose money -- gary: you had a lot of individual investors, they have been retreating lately, but there is probably a lot more. when you have some of these funds, like some of these hedge funds, where th

. ♪ vonnie: bnp paribas is writing down losses by nearly $1 billion.ng unit. they reiterated plans to pay 45% of profits in dividends. mitsubishi is delaying delivery of its new passenger jet for one year. it said the mrj regional playing will not be ready until 2018. mitsubishi says technical issues must be resolved. and, jamaica is not just the land of reggae. its new claim to fame is a stock market that had a better year than any other around the globe. the jamaica stock exchange surged 80% in 2015. $5.3arket capital is just billion. that's the latest bloomberg business flash. stephanie: we will bring you the winners and losers of 2016. with all the investors sitting on cash, what should they do with that dry powder? let's start with the bad news, emerging markets and gold. oksana: the emerging markets are unfortunately facing a trifecta. stephanie: three reasons why they will have a terrible 2016? oksana: we will weigh the pros and the cons. they face it potentially stronger dollar, falling commodity prices, and on the back of all that more difficu

atording to one economist, bnp paribas, she said it would have to be a large surprise not just for september, but a downward revision in october. that said, one of the other scenes running through the commentary this morning that i have been going through, is that after this jobs report, going into next year we could start to see a moderation of gains. david: thanks very much, julie hyman. we look forward to talking to you in about an hour and 24 minutes from now. matt, give us your thoughts. we are focused on these numbers. but there are a lot of other indicators that come out of the jobs numbers about how strong our economy is. matt: one very big and very important indicator is the auto industry, and we have seen record sales the past three months. that is going to continue. one of the things that is very good as far as the jobs outlook is that auto jobs are increasing. that is going to continue well into 2016. stephanie: you have to think about inflation, though. i do not want to say it is a foregone conclusion, but when i think of market participants, is it going to happen? it is the pac

paribas, from bnp looking at new lows for brent., new york, boston, san francisco worldwide. stay with us. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." must-read, lawrence summers writing today on anything to do with economics. ian shepherdson is with us from pantheon. how many tools are in the toolbox right now? ian: not many in the u.s. case, but we do not really need them anymore. the economy is strong enough to new --licy away from the from the current emergency setting. larry summers has been very bearish on growth, and argues that we should not be raising rates until we see the whites of the eyes of inflation, which i think it is too late. i am not surprised he's coming in with this tack. he is raising the question that, what if we raise rates and everything goes wrong? my guess is that i think i have a lot more faith in the economy's underlying strength than he does. i do not think we need to be asking the question over the course of the cycle that is about to start. futures up three. i'm looking at the ruble, 68.