the global strategist from bnp paribas is with us. let's dig into >> what he learned. good morning.uy: you just came back from the states. we just watched the debate. what is your sense of markets' perception of what is happening in the u.s. political spectrum, and what is changing? >> i think the view i sense from the u.s. is that this is a much closer race than men were that longng not even ago, in the summer. from that perspective, i think there is more of a need now to think about the alternate case with both candidates, what is happening, and generally, a greater focus. in addition to that, i would argue we have had a lot of innges from central banks the last week. the key feature is less the fed, because i think the fed did what was more or less expected. the bank of japan, what they have done is a little bit confusing, and i think there is a huge interest in what the and strategy is as far as the bank of japan is concerned. notline: we do have the boj -- [indiscernible] on my bloomberg, you will see it's the worst performing currency. the best performer, the mexican peso. we

bnp paribas is saying that. that the lastid 86 that meetings, all of the meetings under ben bernanke and janet yellen, 10 days out, the future market had correctly priced in a decision. since they are only saying 20%, that suggests if they were moving, it would not be a surprise, it would be shocking. alix: that means we will not see any movement until december when the chances are over 50%. we have been talking about the boj much more than the fat. what will be the real market mover tomorrow? >> that is the real question. follow the yen. if you look at it over the last six months or so, it is completely decoupled from other risk indexes. it has been behaving currency. why is this? nobody knows what the bank of japan is doing. they could raise their purchase program or lower. they could raise interest rates or lower them. they can expand their bond buying program or contract them. there are so many options open that nobody knows what is going to happen. the yen will be the measure of how investors react to the b

daniel morris, bnp paribas. that's it for "countdown." we have been to the boj and the fed. we turn our attention to the oil markets. friday looks like it could get off to a sluggish start. "on the move" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ welcome to "on the move." 7:30 in london. we're counting it down to the european open. i'm guy johnson, alongside caroline hyde in berlin. this is what we are watching. german politicians are waking up to concerns about the country's biggest bank. it has lost nearly half its value this year, but will berlin take action? keep on cutting. the turkish president says that turkey's central bank should continue to drive the rates

in 2014, french bank bnp paribas agreed to pay almost nine billion dollars to the u.s. for violating american sanctions against countries like cuba. until now, it was the highest fine ever paid by a foreign financial institute. this could be talked by deutsche bank now. only bank of america had to ever pay more. in 2014, the u.s. bank agreed to pay a record fine of almost $17 billion for selling flawed mortgage securities. deutsche bank is germany's biggest financial and did touche and. naturally, the government in berlin has an interest in a reasonable settlement. >> the government is aware that the u.s. authorities had agreed similar settlement payments with other institutions. the government expects that at the end of this process, a fair result will be achieved on the basis of equal treatment. >> a $14 billion fine could create a problem for deutsche bank. it is not going well for germany's biggest bank at the moment. last year, deutsche bank made a profit of about one billion dollars, and the financial institute has only put aside $5.5 billion for legal settlements

we have an idea of bnp paribas, socgen, rbs, etc., what is commerzbank good at?cular strength is in the german midcap corporate segments, where they have market shares around 20% to 25%, and it is one of their bigger profit. generators -- profit generators. they have a retail isket in germany, but it relatively small. apart from that, they have businesses in poland where they are one of the bigger players in the banking market. francine: otto, how much of a headache are commerzbank and deutsche bank to angela merkel? otto: commerzbank i do not think is a big headache, really, for the government at this stage. i think what we're talking about here is more a matter of achieving adequate returns on investment going forward more than anything else and responding to the changes in regulation, etc. i do not think it is any together great risk, commerzbank might fail or anything. deutsche bank i think is a bigger challenge in that respect. not that they are insolvent or anything like that, but clearly the market is running a huge amount of pressure on them, and investme

example,her side, for bnp paribas, he believes there will be no additional stimulus. the bank is more likely to , perhaps a range of 70-90,000,000,000,000 yen. say, whatevern happens will have a major impact on stocks and we will have to watch that closely. angie: thank you for that. headlines fromon around the world. paul: thanks, angie. the -- johnrs say claude junkers set to deliver his state of the european union address friday. they say there has been bitter infighting. the international energy agency has changed its supply on oils global oversupply. they say the surplus will last longer than expected as demand slows and output remains resilient. this may influence talks when the cartel meets later. arm is tappingce into biometric technology. they are paying $70 million for the kansas city-based company. checks identities and creates a digital key. -- eye verify checks identities and creates a digital key. they are going to double the break fee. the board was going to essentially approve the bid on tuesday. the talks may yet collapse. global news, four hours a da

we talk with bnp paribas for them to take action in september. vladimir putin sitting down to talk with bloomberg tv. david: the tone is set for apple with the iphone camera upgrades. business tracking. the markets close in two hours time. >> vladimir putin is not taking sides in the presidential election but he doesn't care for the tactics of either hillary clinton or donald trump. >> you know, after all, it is not only one but the other candidate. they are very smart people. listen to them. tune in for more of the exclusive interview. don't miss the special report. it is designed to harm the bed. a service to the public. , emergencyral damage declaration. later today.st and the world health organization issued a warning. continues to affect new countries. they convened the expert committee to assess the status of the epidemic. take a has infected 72 countries and territories. than more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. markets head to the desk. >> we look at what you expect, relatively quiet trading for u.s. equity indexes. job friday. on

economists at our glaze and bnp paribas eight traders have been too quick to discount the rate increasethe fed remained on hold longer than expected. angie: shares have hit a record low as a tumble for straight -- a third straight day. korean air failed to reach an agreement on providing aid to -- and it has completed unloading 30 of its container ships and interns -- intends to return charter vessels to their owners. it is all about the boj. those headlines crossing the bloomberg terminal this hour. let's get reaction from the markets. haidi: the markets are just the slew of lines that have come through from the bank of japan. we have seen a pretty positive reaction in terms of the bit of weakness in the end. you can take a look at this in dollar-yen. a move of about .9 of 1%. 102.29.itting at past fewness over the decisions, even when they have taken action has not lasted for very long. it hasn't materialized read we have that weakness at this point. 102.29. at a level where the bank of japan is not comfortable with. leaving again -- the yen and looking at the broader markets. we have

in the banking index across europe, commerce bank up more than 3%, barclays similar gains, and bnp paribas also up about 3%. sticking with financials, italy's largest lender unicredit is higher after three bidders are said to have emerged as contend yirz to buy the bank's fund management arm. the stock up 3.5%. reuters also reporting that spain's banco santander has pulled out of buying the williams and glen lending unit. the disagreement said to be over the price tag. shares higher on the day. >> thanks, seema. >>> when we come back, the co-funder of lyft on his vision for self-driving cars and rumors about a possible sale. this after a quick break. stay tuned. ♪ [chains dragging] [eerie music playing] [crickets chirping] [owl hoots] announcer: if you don't fix them, sparks from dragging tow chains can cause a wildfire. and that could be scary. bye, smokey! only you can prevent wildfires. >>> good morning, everyone. i'm sue herera with your "cnbc news update." syrian opposition activists releasing video that appears to show an air strike on a syrian town in the central homs province. it s

morning is the news that two of the federal reserve 23 preferred bond trading partners, arelays and bnp paribasting against their peers by forecasting that officials will raise rates on wednesday. this is the first time that more than one dealer has gone against the consensus during a week of a policy meeting since last september. will those two standing away from the crowd, will they be seen to be correct. going offhey are just the signals of the fed and that this is what jackson hole was all about. finally, daybreak focuses in on china. the pbo see strengthening the yuan reference right the most in two weeks. it is on a tight bleach -- tight leash after the g20 meeting that took place earlier. what things are shifting. asian stocks are holding near a one-week high. let us look at the markets. nejra: i am focusing on japanese stocks looking at asian stocks because they are resuming trading after a public holiday. white,ek, the topix, in it recorded its longest losing streak since april 2014 the decline on friday. today, we are seeing the topix rising more than twice the nikkei. this is on spec

we talk with bnp paribas for them to take action in september.sitting down to talk with bloomberg tv. david: the tone is set for apple with the iphone camera upgrades. business tracking. the markets close in two hours time.

manus: we have admin shane from shing from bnp paribas.his is bloomberg. ♪ welcome back, everybody. i'm anna edwards with manus cranny in for francine lockwooaa and tom keene. let's get to u.k. politics. may has had 50 days at number 10 during which she has done a deft job of obscuring her vulnerabilti."es ities."erabil the suggests that she is in a honeymoon period. we have jane fully from rabble bank -- rabobank. this is the political story. taking our time to work out what brexit means. in the meantime, the data in the u.k. is really bouncing back. jane: it really is. we did see some of the weakness right after the referendum. that was an overreaction. that immediate data was an overreaction. whatever way, even if it is an overreaction, it is a relief that we have not seen this aggressive weakening of data in the last six or so weeks. we have seen improvement in manufacturing, construction all looking better. one thing that i would be very concerned about is the indications on the and -- on investment. while retail sales have been good,

is it like bnp paribas in france? it is the mother bank here in germany.body knows it and has a relationship with the bank. one issue for the government is that no politician would want to have to step in and rescue a bank that has employees that are making millions. that is the last thing they would want to have to do. that would be quite troubling for them. you also have the issue that germany is just one year away from a federal election. we are waiting to see if chancellor merkel will announce that she is running again. no politician wants to have to step in and run the bank. francine: thank you so much. our bloomberg bureau chief. rupert harrison is still with us. i have a chart. i will ask you about this specifically. is can see, the level similar or close to what we saw in february. there are definitely concerns. is this concern on the bank or sentiment of what a lot of your paint base are going through, which is negative rates and no growth? >> i think it is both. ofis also the poster child its core market, how do you make money if you are a europe

francine: you have these two primary dealers, barclays and bnp paribas.ou explain the dissent between these two players? mike: if they wanted to move gradually, the economy is not bad enough to stop them. there are not external things to stop them. tom: lets rip of the script. missed -- from your purview of international relations, is janet yellen a political beast? richard: she is an economic beast, but no one is purely one or the other. the idea that you will raise rates before an election, the markets would be upset. would probably help mr. trump and hurt hillary clinton. i do not see it happening. the battle with truman in 1951 -- where is the fed now? mike: it has come down a little bit. right now it has come down significantly because there is a lot of pressure from the republican right suggesting that the fed has become too politicized. they are arguing it is too politicized and it has absorbed too many powers itself. they want to push back and bring it under some sort of political control. wouldn't it be good to the fed to apprise the markets? if

two banks, barclays and bnp paribas are betting against their peers and predicting a rate increase tomorrowhike is laura rossner and cnbc contributor ron insana. you're on. >> great. the case, we think, is quite simple, actually. we think it is about the data. the data have been supportive. the data have been proved from july and from june. also from the date of lift off, it is about risks, risks diminished and as of the july meeting and they have remained muted. so in this environment, with lift off already having occurred, normalization still under way, and the fed not having deviated really or abandoning its gradual rate hiking path, we think it is quite prudent and appropriate for the fed -- >> why do so many others on the street see it differently? what are they missing or seeing that you're not seeing? >> okay. >> just smarter than they are. >> that's why i'm giving you -- >> i think what is happening is we had a nine month pause. and that's confusing. we started the process nine months ago. and that's a long time. and investors, i think, they're looking at that pause and just saying,

i am reminded by bnp paribas and the acquisition that .hey got a bigger fine what is the message -- doe-off. david: who is the next president? jonathan: equity broadly higher through much of the united states. we are in the first 26 minutes of the session. "bloomberg markets" is next. ♪ is 10:00 a.m. in new york and 10:00 p.m. in hong kong. mark: live from london, i am mark barton. welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie: we are going to take you from new york to algiers. a story out of paris, london, and saudi arabia in the next hour. some say donald trump took the bait in the presidential debate against hillary clinton. we get the view from both camps on who was the strongest in the minds of american voters. strong moves in the mexican peso also tell a story. declines astends iran says it is unwilling to lower current production levels. it tells us how many barrels a day it wants to raise reduction, dampening the prospects of a deal. vonnie: more investor concerns about deutsche bank. we look at why it's corporate woes are the last thing angela merkel needs as she considers running fo

just this last year, credit suisse pled guilty for filing false tax returns, find $2.6 billion bnp paribas, forced to pay $9 billion. just those two corporate crimes the cost of those dwarfed the yearly out-of-pocket costs of all burglaries and robberies in the united states. health fraud, health care fraud alone costs anywhere from $100 billion to $400 billion. so there's no question, the kinds of crimes committed by wells fargos and other major american corporations just dwarfs what's happening on the street. now, people say, and this is number 19, don't be ridiculous. it's not violent crime. i've heard experts on corporate crime tell me about this. you can't compare them, apples and oranges. it's not violent crime, but of course, it is violent crime. for example, the fbi estimates that 14,000 americans are murdered every year. compare this to 54,000 americans who die every year on the job or from occupational diseases, such as black lung and asbestosis or the tens of thousands of americans who fall victim every year to the silent violence of pollution and contaminated foods and hazardou