with us is steven saywell, global head of ethics fxategy at bnp paribas -- strategy at bnp paribas.is quite a small market and i think the way i would characterize greece at the moment is europe has bigger problems. there does not seem to be an appetite to allow a greek blowout while there is strong focus on expanding in other nations, so our view is that there may be some turmoil that unsettling, but nothing really crisis. the second point i would make is to continue with the -- when that happened, there was not a spillover effect to the euro and the point being that the market was taking the view that there was a chance greece would take itself out of the eurozone, but the market you with that that would not affect the euro -- the market view was that that would not affect the euro. they were strong enough to stand together. as far as greece is concerned, it seems to be quite contained these days. guy: the thing that always scares smart investors is the unknown unknown. the market can price known unknowns. is in that. is europe capable of producing an unknown unknown? steven: clea

you'll notes likes of bnp paribas lower. full-year revenues rose by 1% despite a lackluster market in 2016. net income was up by 15% from the previous year at 7.7 billion euros. the french bank proposed a dividend of 2.70 euros per share. let's get the details on this nancy joins us from paris. investors trading bnp paribas down substantially. what are they focusing on? >> the big factor sis on the fourth quarter income figure which fell shy of expectations. as other analysts point out at ubs, on an underlying basis this was a beat. part of the strength in the net income coming from the corporate and institutional banking segment. this apart from the retail segment which continued to show weakness both on revenues declining right here in france and also at the italian unit as well. perhaps investors were hoping to see the retail business pick up a bigger share, boosting domestic markets which has been trailing the performance on the cib for quite some time now. nevertheless, performance over the full year was strong. investo

this is bloomberg. ♪ is bnp paribas.administration will return to court to argue it has brought authority international security and demand a travel ban on seven muslim majority country. before are to appear panel in san francisco to seek the reversal of a lower court ruling that that the executive order on hold. it stranded refugees, triggered protests, in hand of the new government its first crucial test. still with us, ahead of equities at hermes investment management. from an investor's point of view, is donald trump making america great again? >> he is certainly making some great headlines. from an investor's point of view, that big problem with trying to analyze anything about trump is the rhetoric versus the policy action. we have a lot of rhetoric, and so far from a financial markets point of view, we have had very little in the way of policy action. if you actually brings in favoring tax credits to focus on capital investment as opposed to debt, so equity rather than debt, that could be quite a transition into e

interesting to compare with bnp paribas that we got a few days ago.o italy's biggest publicly traded bank, and profits almost doubled on higher revenue but lower provisions for bad loans. do note that one analyst said we expect the stock to be driven more by m&a speculation around generali rather than the banks fundamentals. mediobanca, the biggest shareholder in generali. finally, looking to publicis, one of the worst in the session, sales missing analyst estimates with revenue waning, but also the company was hurt by u.s. clients account losses. this is something we heard before with publicis and i the comment,like we expected a little bit more from 2016. guy: one of the most resilient trades in the wake of donald trump selection is showing signs of crumbling. the longest streak since june amid hopes that the demonstration will hammer out a fiscal stimulus plan. the msci index has made quite a come back as you can see. there is november and that is where we are trading now. it has been an impressive gain. it is even more impressive. is writing an in

bnp paribas has posted a fourth-quarter profit that missed estimates. net income doubled to 1.40 4 billion euros from a year earlier, but fell short of the 1.633 billion analysts -- billion analysts expected. the cfo said the bank will take a wait and see approach to donald trump's review of the dodd-frank regulatory framework. >> we will have to see, because -- twoo back to pay 20 may 20, they said any new regulation should have no material impact. so we will have to see how that unfolds. if it remains within that framework -- nejra: china's foreign reserves have edged just below $3 trillion after the u.n. cap -- after the yuan cap it steepest decline in two decades. reserves decreased by $12.3 billion in january. further erosion may prompt tighten measures controlling outflows, and on transferring money to other countries. jersey iss super bowl missing and may be worth half $1 million. after leading new england to an overtime victory in the nfl championships on sunday, grady reported his number 12 game jersey was nowhere to be found. if it were placed

this is a great chart, inspired by bnp paribas.nies with ballooning pension deficits are the next big thing as bond yields climb. he says it is time for investors betting on the reflation trade to move on from using u.s. stocks, financials, and industrials. of course, i have to talk about the deal of the day and week, which has fallen apart, kraft heinz pulling out of that $143 billion offer for unilever. unilever jumped 13% on friday, hitting a record high. but i am looking at the options here because trading a bullish option on unilever surged to the highest level s ince 2011 on wednesday, two days before he got news of the deal at all. a similar jump in volume proceeded heinz's merger with kraft two years ago. over, weffett took sell something similar. it is interesting how options traders have been anticipating those m&a moves. the payoffs are getting these right. it is after, cult for options traders -- it is all, astronomical for options traders. we have seen unilever called lower today. manus: just a quick correction for you

bnp paribas announced earnings short of estimates today and its shares fell 5% to four they came backit. -- before they came back a bit. we sat down with the cfo and asked about the potential effect of trump's deregulation agenda. >> we will have to see. , they go back to the g-20 said that any new regulation should have no material impact. we will have to see if that unfolds. it should be manageable. david: carolina joins us from paris. it certainly did not affect these earnings because the market was not happy with what it heard. bnp paribas had been outperforming last year all the european banks, but this quarter --ms to be more concerning , if though revenues are up you look at the fixed income, revenues rose 23%. that was below estimates. the concern also comes from the manytic front, just like european banks, bnp paribas has been affected by the low interest rate environment. french consumer banking earnings fell 36% in the fourth quarter. the cfo told me he does not expect a peak this year. david: this bank is a retail bank at its core. what are they looking forward to in terms

a mixed picture in europe, paris dragged down a little bit by bnp paribas. moving on to other business headlines, workers at general motors will receive their highest ever bonus checks of up automaker after the reported booming sales in north america. the company said its overall netted clone -- net income fell but still beat expectations of over $9.4 billion. volkswagen is considering a cap on executive pay and bonuses to help restore its image after the emissions cheating scandal. the issue will be on the agenda at a board meeting later this month. some executive receive evenmillion euro payouts after the dieselgate affair was revealed. the solar energy is responsible for one out of every 15 new jobs created in the u.s. last year, according to new figures from an industry group that pushing back against the trump administration's plans to roll back tax incentives for the solar foundation is asking the white house to recognize the potential of green energy both on the environment and the u.s. labor market. --er a two-year down downturn, tourism and france's

with meorris is still from bnp paribas. have a look at this.government bonds are not exactly widely owned. dates,, dates go. dates go.ome, it is not about who owns the greek bonds but about their contamination impact in terms of high yields and investment grade. is what shakesat markets and moves the story. >> more so during the euro zone crisis. the relationship has faded over time. we think we will get a deal in the end. it is probably more trade from the hedge front when you view than driving spreads as opposed to seeing a repair between the two. , wes: earlier this week spoke with one of the world's biggest holders on greek debt. here is what he had to say. >> they came out with their primary balance numbers which do not get much press. they have the second-best primary balance in europe. at .9. still had them they are coming out at almost to play for. and they even paid out a christmas bonus of 600 million. had they not paid that, they would've been close to three. manus: second best numbers in your. of the greeksy hiding their light under

bnp paribas downgraded singapore air just this week.omberg recommends dumping singapore air stocks. how is the uncertainty of oil output affecting singapore air? reporter: singapore has said is said isgapore has expanding. pricesetting on rising opec production cuts and rising tensions between the u.s. and iran. take a look at this chart. prices have been volatile. they will likely remain so. prices have been trending upward since the last quarter, and jet fuel accounted for about 1/4 of expenses last quarter. costs.s to rein in for the kind of quarter it is had. yvonne: thank you so much. more ahead. australia hangs on to that tpp dream. our interview with the nations trade minister is just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: this is "daybreak asia." betty: jpmorgan says iron ore prices are going to hold firm over most of this year, easing only in the final two months. correspondent paul allen. pretty optimistic appraisal here. yes, according to jpmorgan, they were remain high for a little longer, upgrading their iron ore forecast by 2

>> when you compare them with bnp paribas on tuesday, they disclosed some setbacks they faced in the french retail business. setbacks due to competition, due to asset quality as well, where they disclosed a specific style. so, impacting q4. socgen on the other hand is coming out strongly from 2016. they are beating on french retail by about 36% on net income expectations. and international businesses are also there to outperform. >> short-term, i want to bring up the upcoming elections in france. you have noted in your comments about the negative sentiment that can be forthcoming. particularly as investors get increasingly nervous around marine le pen's chances at the french presidential election. how big a risk does this have for the outlook around banks in france? >> interestingly in france the elections will take place over two rounds. in the second round, whoever gets elected still will have to get majority in the parliament two weeks later. if you think about macron even as a doomsday scenario and marine le pen, they will be in weaker position to secure parliamentary majority. e

jpmorgan, chase, the bnp paribas and others.pated in price-fixing and trading foreign currency including the brand since at least 2007. they should be fined 2% of their annual turnover. allusion -- malaysian woman arrested in the apparent shooting of kim jong-un's brother. she was arrested at the airport, the terminal where he was attacked. they believe he was poisoned with a needle or terminal -- chemical sting. workers on strike at the world's biggest coppermine have agreed to talks, but odds are we in to hold them? -- when to hold them? it was down on thursday. they agreed to meet with labor officials, but the time did not work for the company. it has driven up copper prices, and it could be friday before the talks happen. twice 600 journalists and analysts working in more than 120 countries. i'm rishaad salamat. you are watching bloomberg. yousef: u.s. agencies and the fbi are investigating contact between president trump's team and russia. he has slammed back on twitter and set is nonsense. ramy inocencio has the details fr

. >>> some other stocks to watch, bnp paribas posting fourth quarter profit that missed estimates.esults hurt by low rates and restructuring costs. the lender is laying out a multi-year plan to lower coasts and boost investment in technology. >>> statoil reporting results below forecasts. q4 results were impacted by a $2.3 billion net impairment charge. >>> and gap raising its fourth quarter earnings guidance. the company saw sales growth for the first time in years. potentially a turnaround in gap. investors rewarded the shares lately. we'll see if they get a big rebound as a result. >>> more stocks to watch. 21st century fox posting second quarter revenue that missed estimates. earnings did beat the street. it's television and cable series benefited from the world series and the presidential company. >>> and an activist hedge fund manager has nominated four to sit on the board of buffalo wild wings. the hedge fund has been lobbying to have the buffalo wild wings franchise more restaurants. >>> shares of fomc falling after the company fell short of estimates. shares are off by 4%

caroline: bnp paribas has missed estimates for the fourth quarter as earnings fell at the french consumer income doubled to 1.44 billion euro from a year ago, but that fell short of the 1.63 billion analysts expected. caroline: on french retail, do you expect to return to revenue growth in 2017 and when exactly? lars: during the year we have improved our lending rates, so we have increased the lending rates in the last quarter and improved by 4.2% lending outstandings compared to the year before. however, the low interest rate environment will most likely remain for the year to come. so next year, it will remain difficult, although the trend is positive that lending picks up. caroline: so the return to growth could be towards the end of 2017 or even early 2018? lars: we have to see how it goes, but it is not on the next arising in the next quarter. anna: societe generale fourth-quarter estimates exceeded estimates, helped by a surprise jump in earnings from its french consumer banking unit. severin: we could have in the second part of the year better and more telling what could be the new

isorgan, bnp paribas, this normalized from the financial crisis over here. the level of sweat is in italy. i cannot figure out if there will be a massive share dilution, and they do not even have a real business plan yet. what is the level of panic e-seen? -- behind the scene? dan: the level of panic thus far seems to be under control, but i think you have to remember that senior officials in the italian government, a year ago were saying everything is under control, we have a plan together, we are confident monte paschi will be able to raise this money on the market, and just before christmas that did not happen. obviously there is the security blanket in place. they are working on it, but it is going to take, it is not something you can do in 48 hours. this will drag on months, no question about that. francine: we're back with nandini and sony -- sony. i will bring you back to my chart. this is a very simple spread between italian and german yields. the spike up here, is a political risk or simply that the banks have not been dealt with? nandini: i think i

the bnp paribas index, the white line, the highest level since early 2014, indicating not much panicright now, and a whole lot of love. the blue line is the s&p 500 and that is basically a straight line up to the moon, so perhaps some concern with people getting eby lent and euphoric by one measure. julie: a lot of love as you say, compared with panic. there might be panic if you look at in this, the fourth quarter operating loss per share, two cents. analysts had been looking for eps of $.42, so we will see if this is the comparable number, but first blush looks like it is , the company authorizing a buyback authorization being increased by $3.5 billion. the company said its book by per 7666 as of december 31, shares pulling back a little bit in the after our session. we will look through the release and give you more details as we find them in the next few moments. this is bloomberg. ♪ the partnership between amazon and vmware showing some positive signs. the stock is up 15% year to date. caroline hyde is standing by with patrick gelsinger at the goldman sachs technology and intern

a swiss swedish engineering company, bnp paribas, ap they are dragging the index lower.here the pain is coming through in terms of the story this morning, so big heavyweight stocks that are certainly adding downside risk to these markets. miller merce one of the stories -- moller-maersk one of those stories. of the biggest contributing factors to what is going on. pimco is talking about a cold currency war. the invest in manager, global , said that ther euro area central banks, japan, covertand the u.k., took action to depreciate currency during the second half of 2016. the fed struck back. it came from the u.k. when it what it wasrate, saying is that we do not think inflation will come through so we have to raise rates. that was an interesting story as well. let us talk about -- as well. matt: let me first to take a look at currencies, because i think it is the key to a lot of asset class moves today. fxc upfixed the -- have now. 106.50. po, to gaincontinuing strength. that is an interesting story. i think you want to keep your eye is going on in bitcoin. this is one we

the indeed parabolic softer -- bnp paribas softer. we will see what is going on.isse is upside, but being tempered by other moves as well. the equity markets are going nowhere in a hurry. one stock that is on the move allianz.ning is i can show you where it is. 3%, 3.2%. taught me through the alley arms -- talk me through the allianz story. matt: it is really a global , and the buyback is in the turnaround of pimco. pimco had $5 billion of third-party inflows last month, and that is as much in one month as they had in the entire third quarter, so it looks like pimco is seeing some real inflows and this buyback is a sign of confidence from allianz to the market. guy: in percentage terms, allianz is the biggest gainer on stoxx 600. what are we talking here? you with your driver, you with your nine? [laughter] matt: big bertha. i'm thinking i could hit t260, 270, past the bank. guy: i'm sure those guys at allianz and pimco are paying attention. views ongive their rates, the economy, and protectionism. >> waiting to long to remove economy nations -- remove accommodati

i look at france and bnp paribas, and wonder why they do not just roll up credit agricole for a songedit to market improvement? companyonce a global like unicredit gets properly capitalized, eventually business flows to the strongest banks. the top five banks used to have less than 25% of the profit pool and now they have 50%. basically by over capitalization, over liquidity, overregulation, at the beginning you pay the price. about sevenu have hundred -- 700 or 800 banks and many will be under strain. clients will move to the stronger banks. francine: how many will we be left with in five years from now? view you will get four to five key banks in each key market and he will start seeing cross-border consolidation. i will give an example. it has been an example where europe got it right, they made one product that they can so easily across the country. u.s., japanese asset managers, they all adopted it and now it is a global standard. you do not need the institutions to merge, you just need private regulation. they can do a european credit card, a european revolver. the product itse

jpmorgan and bnp paribas have said foreign companies will sell more yuan bonds in china this year as the government started allowing the two banks to underwrite corporate notes. jpmorgan says it is having an active dialogue with global clients about possible issuance. b.n.p. paribas said it may expand its onshore debt capital markets team which now consists of three people after it gained wider access to the market. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: the italian newspaper is reporting that european commission president jungle of juncker may step down this march. his term isn't due to run out until 20 18. let's get more from brussels with jones hayden. the move is a pretty big surprise. >> if this is true, it would be. we've had this speculation in the past several months or so. he's always denied it. the latest one of the most strict was back before the turn of the year, when there was speculation that since martin schultz was stepping down as european parliament head, that juncker may step down as well. he said at that point he was going to serve his full term. at this

so you see bnp paribas, deutsche bank all to the downside.re in the united states banks also opening weak. banks have basically run out of steam since wednesday. remember that's when the chair of the senate banking committee came out and threw cold water on the hopes that congress might approve a large scale financial regulatory relief plan this year. so put up the u.s. banks here and you'll see they're all down to the downside. bank of america, citi group, suntrust also down today. and i think that's part of the problem here. regulatory relief is getting pushed out a little bit further. he was talking about potentially 12 to 24 months out. the other major problem other than banks are oil. i noted this yesterday but it's happening again today, big oil are down here. and big oil's had a terrible year. remember the stock market's been moving up all throughout the year, but your big oil names, hesses, apache, exxon down almost 10%, marathon, chevron new low for the year a problem with the stocks moving different direction. the oil stocks have a

francine: christian schulz from citigroup and ed shing from bnp paribas are still with us. you've become political analysts. is she going to become president? christian: she's talking about real exchange rates being out of kilter within the eurozone, that germany is much more competitive than france or italy. german prices have been rising less than those in italy and france. that is an argument we hear from the new u.s. administration. francine: peter navarro was very outspoken. christian: even the previous u.s. administration and the imf. this is not an outlandish comment. the question is how to resolve that. she is suggesting to somehow dissolve the euro and have nominal exchange rates and adjust those. that is a solution, i guess. , germany having higher inflation -- francine: i remember the lira. would there not be a huge inflation problem? would you say there's a chance france would be better off in the eurozone? forget the politics. christian: i would say probably not. there's more than just the cost competitiveness. countries have to have structural reforms, a flexi