morgan asset management's bob michele. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> policymakers at the federal reserve are set to signal plans for the first interest rate increase since 2018. the rate hike is not expected until march but the fed is all but certain to hold interest rates near zero for now. policymakers discussed shrinking their balance sheet in the midst of the highest inflation of almost 40 years. a warning from russia's foreign minister. he says that moscow will respond to what it considers aggressive action by the u.s. and its european allies. he told lawmakers that nato countries are conducting provocative exercises near russia's borders. in the u.k. boris johnson supporters holding their fire against the embattled prime minister saying that johnson's opponents in his own party may delay efforts to outstanding until the police investigation into the pandemic parties is complete. in parliament today johnson again insisted that he wouldn't resign. boeing, for the first time rising deliveries of that 737 max je

bob michele says that strike on the fed put is not to percent lower on the s&p 500. it is something like 15% to 30% lower on the s&p is when he think the federal reserve would have to step back in. he think we need to do some more work on the front end, so this is what it sounds like for bob michele at jp morgan. 90 basis points on the two-year right now. he thinks the front end of the yield curve starts to compete with what is happening at the long end. stay in cash, maybe get to the front end of the yield curve, and look what happens at the long end of the curve. the buyers come in. they have over the last week. the real test for him is to see how that develops over the next few months. you put that together, the front end competing with the backend, and that story for the fed put his way out there. tom: for those younger that do know who rough on a doll -- do know who rafa nadal is, what we get is excess off of that. that is how you wander out to the 20% or -30% handle is. jonathan: i know for a fact you know who rafa is. you knew that already. finish on this. if

jonathan: a very different bob michele in the last few months.e are looking where there is a lack of age. we keep hearing this -- lack of age. we keep hearing this. there is a lack of clarity. you wonder at what point cash becomes a flexible tool or fit is a combination of assets. jonathan: the cio and head of global fixed income it jp morgan asset management. you will remember, a liverpool fan as well. tom: it is the first thing that he will mention. jonathan: in a commercial break that is all he will talk about. tom: he probably wants liverpool to put david ortiz's number up. jonathan: of course, that makes sense. how many liverpool fans do you reckon know who ortiz is, tom? [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options.

i mentioned bob michele, he is saying 3% on the fed fun at a minimum. right now, you can't buy one.'s start thinking about this. the u.s. versus the euro how high is the burnout for the federal reserve to do more than expected? gradually, we are starting to talk about a rate hike at the ecb, may be the end of this year. i want to finish on europe just briefly. it feels like the first time in forever. just a brief break, a small, mild break up a couple of basis points. but it is that euro-dollar move that gets my attention. is the bar now too high for the federal reserve to hop over? expectations keep climbing relative to the ecb. that conversation for me is only just getting started. tom: the first thing that i look at on the terminal when i come in every morning is you triangulate dynamics and you are right as you put your hand up on radio, doing the framing with his hands here of how they are the in a tight range and they don't signal a decision by the markets on what we are going to see here. jonathan: the range of things, this is one of the most fascinating starts to the year an

i'll start with you and bob michel booking as a booking faso suspension by echo was from echo was have any impact on the military's actions? i'm not in a direct way. the suspension is one of those extremely minimal and measures that a course takes in this kind of circumstances. but most direct impact it will have is the mattie political in to some extent symbolic. the main points of this suspension is to make sure that on the one hand, it was a firm's a principal's position against clues. and on the other hand, also to make sure that the country that that's being affected, babies to doesn't get to have a say in the organization's decision making. so this isn't in any way or a decision that's directly related to the military capacity of either book. you know, or partners as of now. all right, mr. auto echo, as late as we'll meet again, i believe next week to assess the outcome of their mission to booking faso. they are traveling there today and see whether additional sanctions should be imposed. but if we have a look at what's been happening in the region and with a cross in recent mont

jonathan: bob michele says it is much lower than you think if you are looking at the equity market. the question you asked in the previous hour i think is an additional one at the moment. four hikes is the base case for so many people. where is the upside surprise coming from? lisa: pgim fixed income says this is a buy for some of these bonds with yields at these levels are get at the same time, if you start to see wage increases at the levels previously expected, is that a game changer for the long-term inflation outlook? tom: is the pgim call an outlier call, where they are saying step in here and by the price for lower yields? lisa: yeah, if you look at most forecasts. people seem to think the longer-term treasury yield is going to continue to go up. but then you go to the stephen majors of the world and pgim fixed income, and it is a moment that is highly tenuous. we'll go back to the normal that we saw three years ago? jonathan: because it there at the moment, where does that fed funds peak? something a little north of 2%. i don't think we have fully recognized the real adjustm

ahead of the inflation number later this morning, bob michel had things to say. tom: i saw that. jon: of jp morgan, he said without the central bank purchases and cash offering yield let's see how willing investors are willing to purchase long duration government debt at significant negative real yields. he seems to make the argument to sit in cash, have a pocket of cash just for a little while. #. tom: or bring the duration in. i thought we did a great job with the tweets out, take steve majors is saying, this whole idea for lower for longer will be tested at 8:30. jon: the fed protested, too, part of the argument of others. lisa: jay powell in his senate testimony seemed to calm markets because he said yes, he didn't try to push back on a march rate hike and didn't push back on a balance sheet reduction later this year. however, he seemed to indicate it wasn't necessary to go to a tighter monetary policy or get to the end rate. i do wonder if the data will call that hand and that i think is what michael was referring to. jon: that's where the hope is. every time they talk about

works alongside michael -- alongside bob michele. i imagine the swiss would love to see it.w, to advance over the forward exchange discussion amid all of the news flow we have this morning, could -- craig -- kriti gupta. kriti: if you look at the last three or four corrections in the last three years, two of them were spurred by apple hitting those $1 trillion milestones. but what reverses those big corrections? i did some digging, and those buy moments tend to be driven when you start to see a weaker dollar. it really tells you that those foreign investors tend to buy the debt first before domestic investors. this is kind of in to with what you have been hearing, especially in the last quarter of 2021, when you did see that growth taper off a little bit, and a lot of it has to do with the buyers, they simply weren't there. tom: in your weekend reading, what stood out? kriti: i am always going to stick to commodities. i think the commodity story when it comes to the middle east is fascinating. you're talking about the uae, saudi arabia being the only two countries to be able

michelle: in your face. >> bob saget was 65 years old.sunday dwne hickman tv's "dobie gillis" of the 1960's died in los angeles after battling parkinson's disease. he was 87 years old. and "oscar"-winning lyricist marilyn bergman passed away in los angeles on saturday. she and her husband teamed on hundreds of songs, including "the way we were" and "windmills of your mind". marilyn bergman was 93 years old. still to come on the "newshour." the prospects for easing tensions after the u-s and russia hold high stakes talks. we examine the latest push for voting rights legislation in congress how a memorial to shooting victims in tucson elevates art born from tragedy. plus much more. ♪ >> this is the pbs newshour from weta studios in washington and in the west from the walter cronkite school of journalism at arizona state university. judy: the latest guidance from the cdc on isolation and testing for covid-19 has received intense push back. as william brangham reports, many health experts are now criticizing what the cdc has said -- and how -

bob mizuho -- bob michele at mizuho securities points out it is too cheap for international refinersational were finals -- international refiners by u.s. oil instead of u.s. oil buying international, and it ends up upsetting that trade balance. tom: we go to the perspective of javier blas of bloomberg opinion on the dynamics of oil. i did in the extrapolation of oil today, and we had $100 by fibroid 22nd. -- $100 by february 22. why is it going up? javier: demand seems to be much stronger than we would have expected. it certainly has priced into the upside. omicron has very little impact on demand. the consumption numbers, we are beginning to upgrade those numbers higher. the market simply needs more oil from opec, and opec's increasing production on very little increments, and actually failing to deliver the increases that they promise. everyone is saying this is going to add around $400,000 a barrel --400,000 barrels a day. the market is moving to whatever it is, and that is going to be the u.s. shale path. tom: can russia affect the price of brent crude? javier: it can certainly a

bob michele saying 3% minimum on the fed funds. people and jim bianco -- people like jim bianco saying good luck, i don't think you can get past 2%. lisa: have they do and enough to actually curtail inflation just based on the moves we have seen in markets? i don't know that that is the case, and that is why people are probably starting to price in a 50 basis point hike for the first time going back to 2000. jonathan: it is interesting everyone is talking about march. i think next weekend will be pretty interesting for this federal reserve. a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks alone. tom: i strongly agree with that. what is so important here, what an advantage for the chairman to get out front of the debate and take charge of the dynamic. you do that now. you don't do that in march. jonathan: i have heard a few people suggest that they may be just wrapup qe, get it done, pull it forward a month. lisa: we are talking so much about tightening, they are still extending the balance sheet. jonathan: our timing was off. things g

bob, a like a felon that via michelle. i mean keith it's, i'm just, i'm still, i'm is, did this. my mom not in a. took a look. i think i'm laughing. ah. to see yeah. a oh yeah. yeah. i mean it ha, ha, me to beard. hello. sierra nice hill. with a few more to find another how i la mckennan. he couldn't really either have book have wouldn't bunny ed bo insanity so been ah ah, to leave the helm. she with 0 one moment linen and his neck and all this in her mouth he won by then willard over then let it over. then there was a season in the day with a d, d belly colored, vintage eugene leon, let the kilowatt either halleck in team a candle or any mccaney and into heartburn of semester with him. a little bit caliah vegan. holding the girl and my toilet. quoting now he's the confused. thank you all and give you a live in the mike at least make with us, you will always done with a lot of africa. how about that might or psycho choice or sophia, multiple rom multiple. there's a line model of the technology, but what i did for a jada for couple of the north albany of our party here. let's see

with a me a a shout in bob a a, a felon that via michelle. i'm your key, it's, i'm just, i'm still, i'm is did this, man, i'm not in a that's a come laugh. shouldn't be a oh yeah. yeah, i mean it's ha, ha, me to beer. hello. sierra. i put you on an alum again, and he couldn't eat it. i wouldn't be able in san if it's of been a a she did have it. 0, one moment isn't him and his neck. i don't know why they should have my he won by then will it over been over then? it was a series in the day with thank you. a man let the kilowatt hour holic in the mechanical, any mccaney and into the semester with him a little bit of caliah. how the nika lemme toilet quoting you, because you've been with i, i live in my lease make when you when i need to join us, you will always be thrown in the face to the cast was about to get her to my 2nd shot at sophia multiple multiple line mother, the other side of the escalator, but it's not just a yard off or 40 here yet in another 100 did ordonia was not over here for the the brush on the phone. our command. i mean, if

she cannot call norie from me a holler a shout in bob, a like a senate the felon. that via michelle. i mean. okay. now i'm just, i'm still, i'm still not in a so good. that's a good laugh. ah. should embassy? yes. a jada. oh yeah. yeah. you it ha ha me to beard. hello, sierra nice hill. with a few more to find another how i la mckennan, he couldn't really either have book. i wouldn't be any ed bought in sanisha so been ah ah, a she with 0 one moment linen and his neck and all this in her mouth he won by then will it. all right, then let it over, then there was a she was in the day with a did he really color vintage, usually, liam, and all that? the kilowatt hour. halleck in the mechanical, any mckinney and into heartburn of semester with him a little bit caliah hold in the girl and my toilet, quoting now he's the confused. thank you. i'm good with a living in the mike at least make with us, you will always done with a lot of africa. how about that might were psycho choice or sophia, multiple rom multiple. there's a line mother about our public television with what i do for ya. for c

yeah, bob blue i give them a voucher or my, my mom with with nice medical. michelle in the middle. the issue. oh gosh, no man is violet. my mom is violet. but dana, mom, yes. today's with me. okay. allow me to book a book. i love you for no valuable our lunch me. i mean it's not. i use a hotel, i'm checking on, you know, some young under discussion a shuttle. i can learn demon, feel, feel i oh, he's your media reflection of reality. in the world transformed what will make you feel safer? i selection whole community. are you going the right way or are you being that somewhere? direct? what is true? what is right in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallow ah.

bob, will i give them a voucher? or take my much mom with when i should he's got a nice mini go of michelle in the middle. the issue. oh gosh, no man is violet. mom on is violet. but dana, mom yes. my today's with me. okay. allow me to book a book i bought you for obama, you will, i will love me. i'm here and i use the challenge is going, you know, some young under discussion on, on the shuttle i can redeem with, i mean who, who i have given the order to open fire and kill terrorists without warning. the catholic president claims $20000.00 extremists have attacked the country's biggest city and the days of deadly antique government on rest. he also thanked allies, including russia for granting his request to send in peacekeepers. with questions about the nature of this request and whether it has it was a legitimate invitation or not. we don't know at this point, washington questions where the catholics don had the right to invite his own allies, despise the country, being part of a mutual assistance packed under the c s t over line. the british prime minister admits failing to disclose texts to us please

bob asleep fumbled more firstly, it also said i shall stop on indifferent each of them said i stuck a whole m. o . is there a bit of michelle for him to put a dog? were you in the me for the show or the new in the been the snow on pretty that it i thought, oh let me know if we're near to the person in here. oh, here with oh oh, the so the leader that in the morning no one ever say the way who my adult can you press voted on russia t, mom just i just and i need to was going to to attend yet and i shouldn't i own but i just wanted i got a moment, but does this, did not you? did you see you say an ident smushed chair to talk to somebody in your standard practice? there was some webpage put us that there that put them on the go with hello miss to bring you home to sleep. i do for you. it's almost finish, you know what their board i only go him to squash game with her sheet was great. them i am well good cook nintendo, a highly o asia with them as a very according boy i'm far in on some sub around. yeah. of is or halloween i sell, family law for some belie, discontinued the new. so my boss name, you thought the novel suddenly on

ago exactly a year ago, my beloved nephew, bob reed died of this disease, he was 60 years old with two beautiful children, casey and tyler, beautiful wife michelleave is not ill-founded, now it's a whole different ball game. but let me just finish this, the gun violence, i lived in cleveland, we have a terrible rate of murder with kids and guns in every big city coming to see what has happened across the country, when you take away the public schools, the only structure these children have and it's all these guns in their pockets, what they do as they go out and they act out and it's just horrible. and the final thing i want to say is i am very concerned about exercise, deprivation and the depression that comes with the isolation as the father of three girls. you know, these are real, real issues that we have to address, and i deplored the fact that there are two sides. this should be one side on how to approach. and greg is right about obesity. >> jeanine: yes, but in the end you have the ust coming of the teachers who are still fighting and not go back. and that does not in any way take away from what happened a year or two years ago. next, ho

michelle. >> hi, daddy. >> reporter: playing danny tanner on "full house." >> anything else you want to talk about? >> yeah, is dinner ready? >> reporter: and hosting "america's funniest home videos". >> hi, everybody. i'm bob saget and this is a new suit. >> reporter: the man who dedicated his life to making us laugh. continuing to perform standup on saturday night performing a show in jacksonville, florida, sharing this photo on instagram after the show writing, i'm back in comedy like i was when i was 26. i guess i'm finding my new voice, and loving every moment of it. >> he didn't seem unheld taltun all. no coughing. i didn't even see him take a sip of water to stop. he didn't take a break at all. >> reporter: and hours later, the 65-year-old found dead in his hotel room in orlando. officials responding to the hotel sunday afternoon where he was pronounced dead at the scene. >> going to be for a male patient. caller is advising it's an obvious death stating a security officer found the guest not breathing, no pulse. >> reporter: the circumstances of his death unclear, but detectives say they found no signs of foul play or drug use, and this morning, fans and friends alike paying tribute. john stamos twe

michelle childs of his own state. he helped put biden in the white house by supporting him, announcing his endorsement right before the primary. bob woodward claimed that he endorsed him on three conditions and one of those was that biden pledge to nominate a black woman to the supreme court. so how much do you think clyburn's influence will play in this process? >> i think this is where you see the plt pressure. which one of these women, and i think clyburn's noise is very loud in this white house. he's been a little bit of a political north star for this president. and this was a condition. he was the one who urged president biden to make this public pledge during the campaign at a presidential debate in his home state of south carolina. what i think is interesting also about judge childs, that the argument for her is not just that she is clyburn's pick but also that she brings a sort of socioeconomic and geographic diversity to the court that might be lacking. she doesn't have an ivy league degree. she is someone who, working class parents. that's the time of background that a lot of democrats want to see. not just to diversify

michelle goldberg joins us at the top of the hour. >>> plus, the chairman of the foreign relations committee, senator bob menendez, joins us in our 8: a moment this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but whatever work becomes, the servicenow platform will make it just, flow. whether it's finding new ways to help you serve your customers, orchestrating a safe return to the office... wait. an office? what's an office? ...or solving a workplace challenge that's yet to come. wherever the new world of work takes your business, the world works with servicenow. inner voice (furniture maker): i'm constantly nodding... ...because i know everything about furniture ...but with the business side... ...i'm feeling a little lost. quickbooks can help. an easy way to get paid, pay your staff, and know where your business stands. new business? no problem. success starts with intuit quickbooks. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ entresto is the number one heart failure brand prescribed by cardiologists and has helped over one million people. it was proven superior at helping people stay alive and out of the hospital. don't take entresto if pregna