bob michele is back with us and you mention this briefly. d for you in the past few months? bob: the probability of recession has pretty much finished over the last couple of quarters. if you are in the soft landing in an environment where inflation is moderate in the fed can bring down rates that's great for corporate america. the financing pressure comes down, consumers are outspending. credit spreads tend to come in. jonathan: we have seen tons of supply to start 2024. is this catch up from last year or pull forwards from this year? bob: i will tell you something surprising between treasuries supply and corporate supply i am wary there is not enough. i almost wished the fed would not start tapering qt and i almost wish they would push out interest rates and go once a quarter instead of starting in may or june. there is so much money looking to come into this market. you've got to where the levels got to, they got here simply with the money that's already in the market. i have not had a single conversation with a client who said, get me out

jonathan: you mean bob michele's clients at j.p. morgan? lisa: yeah.: crude of you tie and brent both look like this this morning. wti unchanged. brent crude, as well. 83.60 on wti -- on brent. under surveillance this morning, president biden under mounting pressure to confront iran directly after three u.s. troops were killed in a drone strike by the country's proxies. iran has denied involvement in the attack. a person familiar with the u.s. position said the strike would warrant a stronger response than anything they have done since hamas militants attacked israel in early october. the what if happened over the weekend. what next? lisa: this is the problem. gop lawmakers coming out, some saying like lindsey graham hit iran hard now. it is a level of explanation this administration has been trying to avoid. annmarie: is this going to be a redline where they go more aggressive on iran or is it going to be the continuation of deterrence? jonathan: we spoke to norman a while ago. he not use the word to torrance. he used the word defense. lisa: the messa

jonathan: i want to bring up that word from bob michele. have a read at this. "now that inflation has come down before the next shot materializes, the fed should start cutting rates." what do think about that? steven: conceptually that sounds good, is that something the federal reserve is in practice of doing? no. you have to give them some time. monetary policy is restrictive. let's zoom out and say what we learned last year's you don't have to crush the economy. you don't have to have any economic labs to get the inflation rate lower. there were numerous pieces of what happened in the upheaval of the economy that made price stability impossible. as we normalized, inflation has come down and it will continue to slowly come down. are we in any environment where the federal reserve is going to primitively say let's get back to a neutral position? it is nice in rectus, but the committee dynamics, it is not going to happen that quickly. tom: others are talking about a fed behind the curve here. does a fed restriction to enough where it slows down the economy and g

you guys are getting into conversation getting into this conversation tonight, bob at home says michelleg about where did it all go wrong boris ? you're go wrong for boris? you're saying, went wrong saying, well, it went wrong because of his own actions. he lied about everything that he said, lied when he was said, even lied when he was looked at the face and asked whether or not he'd lied. i loved boris, but let's face it, he did this to himself. um, so many people . malcolm says boris many people. malcolm says boris achieved absolutely nothing . all achieved absolutely nothing. all he stood for was net zero. john says bring boris johnson back now it's the only way the tories will last or stand a chance. the pubuc will last or stand a chance. the public did not vote for sunak. um, valerie says rishi should call it a day now he knows that the tories are done. surely let's have an election because it is painful now to sit and watch this. roger, who on earth is going to represent britain? it's certainly not the current tory party and definitely not the labour party or the rest of the labou

bob the builder" movie. ♪ ♪ [honking] >> announcer: it's "the late show with stephen colbert!" tonight... super bowl taylor's version! first, stephen welcomes bryan cranston and michele featuring louis cato and "the late show" band. and now, live on tape from the ed sullivan theater in new york city, it's stephen colbert! [cheers and applause] >> stephen: you know a lot, on time. there you go. nice to see you. hey, everybody, please have a seat. thank you so much gridlock on what it all to "the late show." i'm your host, stephen colbert. there is huge news from the world of men's football. after last night's conference championship games, the super bowl match is set: red team versus other red team! that's right, chiefs! 49ers! bean dip! all right here on cbs! which for one night only stands for "catch the bowl, comma, super!" after the big game, be sure to stay passed out on your couch for a brand-new "late show"! okay? i don't need you conscious. i just need your tv on. [cheering] maybe "late show" and chill? of course, since the chiefs are in, the game will feature the biggest star in the nfl: taylor swift! that's right! beat me to it. tay-tay was once again in the