bob pisani looks for some answers. >> reporter: what a day. whew. at one point, the dow up over 280 points and then in the early afternoon, it was down 140 points and it ended down about 27. what happened? there were a series of zpoimts right after the open. first, energy stocks a drag on the market and then a decent earnings report turned negative early on and then 11:30 a.m. kb home gave disappointing commentary for 2015 and the whole home building complex fell apart. home builders had been leaders until today. in the early afternoon, there were a serious of very quick dow moves saw move 150 points down in an hour. that's a big move for an hour. indicates that the market is starting to price in more risks and a potential earnings slowdown. one thing to watch is the poor performance of financials. which were among the first sectors to drop off today. we go into earnings report for big banks this week and it's fairly common to sell off into those reports. bank of america, pnc, climerica and sun trust, all report earnings this week. for "nightly busi

bob pisani looks ahead at the stock market and first, steve liesman on his outlook for the economy. >> reporter: 2015 will be a year with big central banks around the world pulling in opposite directions. hopefully, their economies all going the same way, that is, up. the u.s. federal reserve looks likely to hike interest rates, the first rate hike in 9 years and look for it in the summer. the fed won't be aggressive about raising rates. the rates could end around 1% from the current level of 0%. look for the european central bank for a quantitative easing program to buy sovereign bonds. should help stabilize the euro zone's economy if not propel growth and japan should stay the course with wide open monetary policy. as for growth in the u.s. the positive effects of lower oil prices should offset the marginally negative effects of higher rates and then some. wage growth should finally come in what should be one of the biggest stories in 2015 wages should begin rising meaningfully and the middle class will be able to feel the positive effects of the postcrisis recovery. >> energy price

bob pisani joins me on the floor of the nyse. a bit of a recovery but a lot of volatility. >> that dreadful attack aside two of the three of the macroissues are better today. oil has been stable on the upside throughout the day. that is probably most important thing. bond yields to the upside. dollar strength up. let's talk about specific sectors. department stores are having a great day. j.c. penney came out with terrific holiday sales reports, up 3.7%. this is one of the most shortened stocks on the streets. other stores dillard's, macy's having nice gains. we will hear from other retailers tomorrow about holiday sales. let's take a look at home builders, fha, government issuer of home loans lowered the annual insurance premiums. that is good news for first-time home buyers particularly. you see what that is doing to the home building group and companies on the higher end doing better today. commodity stocks doing good. they have had a terrible few months. cliffs vale alcoa reporting. the oil stocks are mixed. big names are gen

bob pisani has more now on how the stronger dollar, falling bond yields and tanking oil prices led to today's big sell-off on the street. >> reporter: there are three macro themes that are playing out in 2015. number one, the week euro, a strong dollar. number two, five-year lows in oil and number three, low bond yields. traders know how to jump on a bandwagon and follow a trend and that's what they're doing. following a trend. they're shorting europe with italy, spain, france and germany all down 3 to 5%. and they're continuing to short energy, shale stock, with even the biggest names like chesapeake concho and pioneer natural resources down 5.6%. this knock-on effect, so caterpillar was down 5% on a downgrade from jpmorgan due to its exposure to the energy business. and lower prospects for construction in states with strong energy economies dropped names like united rentals, that's an equipment rental company, and fluor, a construction company. and they shorted global growth with many big global industrial names like illinois tool works, textron, 3m and honeywell all down. when will

bob pisani is in the middle of all the action at the big board. high volatility this week, bob, especially the final hour of trade. >> the volatility has been incredible not only on the close but on the open as well. i got a headache every single day at the close and at the open. let me show you the price swings. show you the way i think about the world. normally the s&p should move in a 10 11 12 point range. monday, 23 point range p tuesday, 33. wednesday, 32. thursday, 31. today it's just 23. a calm day today. these are twice normal. how about some stability in oil? would it kill you to have a do-nothing day. oil, $3. tuesday, $2. wednesday at a $4. $4.60 on thursday. friday $2.50. oil are only $45. these are enormous ranges when you're talking about a $45 commodity. what has oil done this week? oil is just up fractionally. we're still only up fractionally. how about some stability in other commodities. copper moved in a 13% range. very hard to trade something like that. while i'm complain being things how about jpmorgan? normally jpmorgan should

joining me here bob pisani. you think this is autonomous trading. computerized programs. >> i think there is absolutely a lot of that. a lot of these trading systems are based on technical levels and when you break the technical levels it automatically generates auto types. people that think this is a opportunity. other ones are more conservative. i think part of it is very autonomous computer driven. >> people even if you have somebody put in a sell at a technical level it is a human being putting it in. you are implying that sky net has taken over and the machines are acting independently. people are putting in levels and doing things with them. what is interesting about today we are seeing enormous volume in exchange traded funds around stocks and bonds. around bond etfs hitting new highs. corporate bond etfs, jenny may is hitting a 52-week high. we have been so wrong on this. that is the amazing thing. the humans haven't gotten it right. >> it is worrisome. >> did you not see the story you guys did two days ago about the automated hedge funds, r

bob pisani come on in here. you know i was saying earlier, nobody really saw the velocity with which this market went down and then went back up. so there are people who are the wrong side of this rally. >> nobody's making money right now. i think that's a major problem. we've had a series of v-shaped rallies in the past few months and it's been tough to make money. this is a very powerful rally today. >> it is. >> let's show you the s&p 500. we were at what 1992 just two days ago? and we're at 2059. that's like, a 3.4% move. it's very broad. the main reason we're having this today is the stability in those macro factors. number one, oil stabilized in the last couple days. west texas is around 47 48. the ten-year note. yields globally have stopped dropping. those are the two most important factors. wide swaths of the s&p are up 2% today. and that's fairly unusual. so we have materials and tech and energy and industrials, all moving along very nicely. there's fundamental factors. we had very good retail reports o

. >> before we get to bob pisani back to our macro themes again oil of course being the key.nd i'm watching where it continues to be -- >> i don't understand how exxon bounced off the 86 level. it's headed back to 86. downgraded chevron. this is the beginning. a lot of people held on hoping you wouldn't have to downgrade. there is no way. you have on downgrade these. you can't have a huge down year and have all the analysts like this so much. >> and broader markets down rather sharply this morning. concerns perhaps yet again about greece believe it or not. >> i think this is first day black for a back for a lot of people. >> nobody seems to be taking it quite up to the level they did a number of years ago. >> one of the reasons, greece is a reason for more quantitative ease. but without structural change in europe, europe is not the place to be. >> like calvin coolidge in a pant suit saying no no no. >> larry kudlow would tell you calvin did a pretty good job with the economy. >> sorry, i meant hoover. >> calvin did a pretty good job. >> herbert hoover, calvin coolidge coolid

we are adding in bob pisani here at the new york stock exchange. bob, we'll start with you.ch jumps out to you? where's the buyers buy the dippers? >> macro themes that worked towards the end of 2014 continuing to work into 12015 and traders go with the trends. weak euro strong dollar. number two, you have problems in the energy sector so short the euro. short europe. short a little global growth and short energy. i mean the energy names, it's breath taking the declines in the estimates. 2015 estimates down 21% compared to 2014. a month ago supposed to be down 3%. i haven't seen a collapse inest mait estimates since when? 2008. >> bob we showed that chart last week about the correlation as oil going lower and stocks and then suddenly theydy diverged. is oil good for the market? >> well, i think the question net-net, we think low oil prices are good for the u.s. economy. we think it's good for the globe. the biggest risk that it presents is that -- with this kind of oil priceing, you have political tension in oil-produce oil-producing nations srks that a problem, you know, ma

bob pisani is on the floor. >> good morning, guys. we had a decent start.en sectors of the s&p 500 were up. we maded a little bit. energy is lagging. health care is a leader with the utilities. big topic on the floor. i came in early, bob, did you see the bond yields? what's going on in europe? the numbers were staggering. traders, that's all they were talking about this morning. at one point the german bund yields were down 15%. we were at 0.44%. it recovered a little bit, the yields there. france was down 10%. that was yielding 0.72%. it's recovered a little bit. they are higher than earlier. ours are down below 2% for the u.s. if this is not a sign of concerns about deflation, i don't know what is. when stock traders talk about the bond market and bond yields pay attention. that is not normally on their topic of conversation list. other thing, other macroissue is the oil situation with crude trading in the $40s. a lot of traders are nervously eyeing the stock markets for the major oil-exporting companies. you can own them through exchange traded funds. r

we've got to get to bob pisani. >> good morning, guys.ndustrials, techs, staples leading the market. energy, though lagging a bit. i want to point out something. i'm not in my normal spot. i'm next door to what used to be old garage. this was an annex to the floor and it's completely been remodeled and reopened here. just take a look at this and how big it is. you sue hoy wide the space is? over 7,000 square foot. it's a a great, beautiful new space that they just opened here. put up the full screen. it opened in 1922. it's an annex, you're next door. this is completely remodelled and renovated, housing additional part of the u.s. equities and housing options business, what we used to call american stock exchange ice futures also in here as well as operations part of the new york stock exchange, just on the other side of the wall. it's a brand-new space and literally just opened about a half hour ago. i'll give now more on it as the day progresses. in terms of the markets here a bit of a problem. energy earnings below expectations. last w

bob pisani's on the floor. >> oil is at least not smacking around the stock market, carl. a modest open but defensive posturing. this has been the trend so far in 2015. put up major sectors leading here today. telecom, it's utilities, it's consumer staples, health care. and this has been the trend throughout the year. take a look at what we have been the sector leaders in 2015. this doesn't include the open but you can see we're up 2% utilities are up 1.4% consumer staples up 0.8%. sector laggards in 2015 are, no surprise here energy but also financials which are again lagging today. and industrials which are down 3.6%. the point here is this is a very much defensive posture that we have adopted so far in 2015. let's move on. of course, you've been talking about what's going on with swiss stocks. swiss stock market's down 10% now, as swiss national bank capped its cap on the franc or ended the cap on the franc. important thing is most swiss stocks trading down 10%. put up the swiss banks that trade here in the united states. in dollar terms they are trading to dwrup side.

bob pisani at the fxcm post.ck was halted after down more than 80% in the premarket. >> waiting for it to open and heaven knows if it's going to open, because what we're trying to determine, what the company's trying to figure out, whether or not they can raise enough capital to stay in business. that's what happened. take a look. stock is officially halted. but it was trading in the preopen as low as i saw 1.50. that's not a typo. talking about declines of 80%, 90%. but it's officially halted right out in and not traded at all here in the new york stock exchange. what's important, the company said, because of what happened to the swiss national bank yesterday, they -- the clients experienced significant losses and clients now owe fxcm at least $225 million. so potentially in breach of several important regulatory requirements and they're trying to figure out if they can raise additional money in order to stay in business. this is what happens when you make a snap decision and all of a sudden impose a change in t

. >> thanks bob pisani. we should note the nasdaq within just about eight points of being positive for the year. the rest of the hour joining us is john steinberg. within tech, semi conductors, the biggest movesation henry mentioned earlier ces mentioned everything will have a chip in it soon. the entire dow is positive. only two dozen members of the s&p are positive. >> all the tech names i look at are mostly in the green. some for reasons specific to them or outlying. aol up 4 hnt.76%. apple is up almost 3%. app store revenues came in at record highs and things like that as well. google is the only one that's flat that really keeps going back and forth between positive and negative. because the sentiment the idea that growth is tapped out. stack flat for a year. search not growing like it used to is really the outlier. and gopro is down close to 4% that. could be because of the ces and we're seeing so much competition the idea they are going to be commodified by players. that is the story today i think. >>

thanks very much, bob pisani.ehind the ipo, box ceo, aaron levie, live on his company's first day as a public one. stock up as i mentioned, up more than 56% right now. "squawk on the street" will be right back. aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep. see why speed matters, at aflac.com. my name is bret hembree. i am an electric crew foreman out of the cupertino service center. i was born and raised in the cupertino area. it's a fantastic area to work. the new technology that we are installing out in the field is important for the customers because system reliability i believe is number one. pg&e is always trying to plan for the future and we are always trying to build something stronger and bigger and more reliable. i love living here and i love the community i serve. nobody wants to be without power. i don't want my

bob pisani joins me. there isn't much volume today, is there? >> disappointing it started on a friday because we want to get an idea what direction the market might be for the year but the volumes are on the weak side. a lot of traders aren't in. let's look at the laggards that are out. moving to the downside here. so heejal banks had a good close. they're on the downside. we see software. that's another etf that's well known. that's also on the downside this morning. steel stocks also weak as well here. let's move on and talk about the gaming stocks. they're also on the weak side right now. we see boyd and las vegas and mgm resorts all down. november revenues from the las vegas strip were down. some stories out about that. the ft's got an article on online gaming not taking off. you want to take a look at sectors that might have volume today. that's interesting on a low volume day. look at vanguard energy. one of the big ones. that's got a lot of volume today. you can't blame the declines we've seen today on oil. oil has rallies. is getting sig

bob pisani is picking up the story.ple seem to be taking advantage of this year to get rid of some of those. >> there are big mac crowro themes. they keep pressing the big macro themes. let me show you a strong dollar concerns about slower global growth hurting for example material names. we're seeing big names out there, steel stocks are weak. alcoa is down. global growth in oil weighing on? some industrials. people asking why is caterpillar so swaekweak. they get 10% directly, another 15% indirectly. so maybe a third of caterpillar is at risk in terms of oil and gas exposure. that's one reason. a lot of people trying to hide in consumer names, about you that's not working well for a couple reasons. there is the van guard oig difference department appreciation. and the reason is a lot of these funds that have dividend appreciation also have guess what, energy stocks in them. so some of the biggest holdings of this vanguard fund is occidental murphy, exxon. when they're gowndown this much it drags the whole fund down wi

joining me from the floor of the big board, phil and bob pisani.ast week's swiss bank surprise, can you blame some traders for not wanting to make a big commitment before the european central bank meeting on thursday? do you think we'll sort of be quiet until that time? >> i think it will be. you know you have the president's speech tonight, which is obviously raising some consternation. you have what's going on in europe and the ebb and flow of data some good some not good. certainly i think people are holding back as of at least for the next few days. >> and some earnings bob, especially the big question mark, big blue here. >> you know look we know what the problems with big blue is. it's not the hardware problem. the problem is their service and software has got enormous amounts of competition, and we'll see what happens there. i have a much broader concern. i know there are macro issues going on. they're bringing down earnings estimates across the board, not just in energy and materials but even for q1 for the financials are not looking great.

bob pisani, what can you tell us?our-day week so it was a little on the short side but we are down one day, i think it was today. look at the s&p 500. we were nice on tuesday and nice on wednesday nice on thursday, and this was the only down day. major indices for the week did very well but there was some real discrepancies. the s&p had a good week, nasdaq tech had a good week. see the dow lagging. american express and mcdonald's had a poor week. mcdonald's disappointing on its commentary. as for the big winner it's a weird group. the airlines had great numbers because the fouluel helped them out. when was the last time oil and gas ex flor ration was one of the big leaders? it's been months. it happened this week and today despite the fact that oil settled at the lowest estest estest level since march 2009. as for the laggards, you want to see what currency wars are doing? weak euro strong dollar it means cheap exports from europe. it means cheap steel coming to the united states. it means price wars with european ste

bob pisani for the new york stock exchange right now. this is not one you want to put stock in right now because of the light volume. >> i wish the first trading day of the year was not on a friday. they're on the light side. look at the s&p 500. we started in positive territory and now drifted negative. blame it partly on oil. late in the day we saw oil drifting lower again. we did see energy names move down. though most of them still remain in positive territory. there's one that got nice today. we're seeing volume here. but you can see that's just barically positive on the day. how about laggards for the day. here's what's interesting. you play this every year. what do these three stocks have in common? they're among the best performers of 2014. they're the laggards today. the worst performers of 2014 ibm is up today. this is something you can do every day. buy the biggest loser on the first trading day of the year. seriously. people must think there's magic to doing this. >> ibm needs the help right? we don't want to see it for the t

that's where bob pisani is standing by. >> energy and the metals market really weighing on the stockt today. take a look at the energy complex. we're at new multi-year lows and every time that happens, you know the drill. energy stocks like anadarko petroleum, noble, oil stocks like marathon and schlumberger all tend to decline. this is having an effect on the s&p earnings. i can't emphasize this enough. look on december 1st for energy the s&p, it was expected to be down 13% for the q1. today, it's now down 41%. that's a phenomenal drop in one month, we've seen a drop of more than 30 points in the energy expectations. so here's what the s&p 500, and this is the current quarter that we're in december 1st we thought earnings for the s&p overall would be up 8.6%. now it's down to 4.6%. that's a 4 percentage points difference in five weeks and almost all those 4 percentage points is because of the decline in energy earnings expectations. that's why the market is upset here because it's having an outsized influence or energy is, on earnings overall. the metals complex is also hurting the

markets and talk about the fact we're off 200 points and the dow in the red, off triple digits and bob pisanion the floor to tell us why. >> what's important to put things in perspective. we hit a closing high the 29th, 2090, now at 2031, do the math, two down days essentially, december 31st and today, so the s&p is 2.5, 2.6% off its historic highs. a little revision in the earnings estimates with energy and that's the problem if you look at the sectors today, with oil down below $51, energy to the downside, materials, that's a concern on commodities discretionary and industrials. commodities at four-year lows. big energy, well your usual names, the 2 to 3% decline. that's a little unusual. 4% decline, schlumberger and halliburton down. what's the macro trend? the problem with today the macro trend for the last three months is working again today. so ten-year yields are moving, the dollar index is at a new year high, the dollar index is going back for many years a new high, that's got to be a nine-year high for the dollar index, around there and crude keeps dropping. yields staying low, dolla

bob pisani with jeff gundslach. more than a foot of half of snow dumped on boston, providence and the northeast and that number is only going to keep climbing. the weather channel is live in boston with the latest. chris? >> yeah, hey, kayla. we have about 18 inches of snow here in boston. but in the surrounding area, people are reporting upwards of 30 inches of snow. you know, some folks have talked about this storm being a disappointment in new york city, but it is anything but here. boston has been in the cross hairs and down providence up into new hampshire and maine. the snow tps continues to fall. when i think things are starting to let up a little bit it intensifies as the heavy bands of snow continue to come off the ocean and pound the boston area with all of this snowfall. now accompanying this, also, high winds. we saw a lot higher winds earlier in the morning. wind gusts up to about 40 or 50 miles per hour in the boston area. down on cape cod and the islands, there were wind gusts on nantucket island, win

let's get to bob pisani on the floor. >> another nice rally. all ten sectors in the up. being led by health care. europe on the up side. buying yields quieter today. oil on the downside a few pennies here. more positive environment for equities. last night around 9:00 did you see this? s&p futures moved 15 handles. everybody seems to agree charles evans who is the head of the chicago federal reserve gave a speech saying it would be a catastrophe, his words, to raise rates. evans is an uber dove. he is now a voting member of the fomc. most traders seem to agree that was the overriding factor in the move to the up side. we've been trying to figure out if lower gas prices and better employment would be helping retailers. we got an answer now. the answer is generally yes, a number. five companies came out and raised guidance this morning. the sales numbers were pretty good here. american eagle sales were down 2%. they guided higher. aeropostal sales down 9%. the loss they are going to have will not be as bad as previously indicated. stage stores sales up 6.5%. better than ex

bob pisani's on the floor. bob. >> i've been standing here a few minutes.100 points and now it has turned positive. a strange morning. at the open weakness in defensive names. utility stocks consumer stocks telecom stocks weak. it's all turned around. from the very start we had a rally in energy stocks and the important thing is west texas intermediate stabilizes 45 47 it's roughly 47 today. put up energy stocks. more volatile names, den bury anadarko, sw energy you're getting 3% 4% moves right at the start. exexxon and chevron helping the dow. everybody's waiting for the ecb meeting. i can tell you, boy they are expecting -- germany turned around, that was negative a few minutes ago -- expecting big numbers out of the ecb. 750 billion to 1 trillion for the qe program, certainly 500 billion isn't going to do it. some people want open ended whatever it takes stuff. so there's a lot of expectations around this. and some of the guys who are out, the australian ecb member trying to calm people down saying don't get excited about one meeting. obviously they're a

sitting down with bob pisani in california. volatile day.clusive coming up on "squawk on the street." take a deeeeep breath in... and... exhale... aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep. see why speed matters, at aflac.com. >>> markets close session lows here. pretty much at bottom of the day. dow's down 309. news has been uniformly negative, whether durables and a miss for december, revisions for november and of course all of the earnings from big multinationals hit by the strong dollar. dominic chu, as you saw, at hq with market flash. >> sneak peek. although there was mixed news out there, right? good consofumer confidence. corn, the company reported adjusted quarterly profits of 45 cents a share, 7 cents better than what wall street expecting. sales came in higher than forecast, as its results helped by strong demand for lcd glass products,

joining us david darst and bob pisani, as well. there somewhere next to you. >> here they are. >> bob, the economic data bad news suddenly bad news for the markets? >> no. i think it's frustrating today with the first trading day on a friday. i wish it would have been on a different day because normally first trading day we should have pretty good volume. volume today is 20% below normal. payroll numbers. 240, 250. >> 240. yeah. >> unemployment rate still continuing to improve. i think that's the main market mover next week. >> there's an order to buy the close and people obviously think this is a short-term pullback and today's pullback to call it that for a single trading day is short lived. >> you had, kayla, a strong movement upward in december. it went up and gave it back in january last year because of the weather. remember how cold it was. >> polar vortex. hard to forget. >> i think january is driven not by weather or three things that happened later this month. european central bank meeting. people are looking to see whether

. >> and bob pisani is tracking all the action at the stock exchange for us today. what happens next? >> well bank earnings. take a look at the s&p 500. i want to comment on the banks but look at the s&p. we hit our highs after 10:00 but we started drifting lower right after 11:00. you can blame alcoa going negative, kb home being a problem. we accelerated a little after 1:00. a lot of traders were talking about some -- one trader or group of traders selling a boat load of calls in big cap names, applied materials, microsoft, pfizer were all mentioned. i'm not sure that was a factor but it looked like somebody was out there trying to cap their upside in stocks they own by selling calls. i think that was a factor. watch the performance of financial. bank earnings are coming out and it's fairly common to sell into earnings a little bit. finally, guys it looks like somebody is out there trying to price in a little bit more risk potential earnings slowdown. we've had four periods now where the vix is over 20 in the last five months. back to you. >> red flag territory as

. >>> joining us are larry mcdonald along with bob pisani. welcome to you both.to crash. first line of the note the u.s. dollar setding up for a sharp decline and i got to hear why. >> boy is that a counterintuitive play right now? >> think back to the fall of 2013. the dollar was getting out of hand. emerging market currencies and bonds were in flames and the fed started to talk the dollar down. the dollar went from 85 to 79 from the fall of 2013 into 2014. >> dollar index. >> yeah. getting point now in the next couple of days we have got rosengren, we have a lot of fed speak. if they mention the dollar as a concern, there's so much pent-up bullishness in the dollar, it could create a reversal and in oil -- >> talking a correction? correction totally understand and overbought and too much strength perhaps, whatever they call it in the market. talking about more than that or no? >> a sulback is a bull market for now. if they continue that fed speak, then you'll see a more pronounced -- >> why would the dollar sell off right now? >> raise ratds. >> it makes sense.

joining us jeremy hill and bob pisani, as well. what a crazy day. >> yeah.e back. restore a little bit of confidence a bit. it was defensive led. consumers, health care staples and the market spoken very clearly. they're buying bonds. we're at 52-week high on many many big bond etfs including corporate bonds, long-term treasury bonds. even jenny mays are at 52-week highs. >> you put on a note late last year positivedepositing the possibility of long rates won't go up at the same time as the fed. down to 1.88 on the 10-year. why do you think this is possible? >> one of the things that we query all the time is if you're an investment manage we are a wide ranging mandate for the investments, why would you seek a risk free rate in europe and not in the u.s.? the relative value trade is a massive differential there. we find of often jest what's the difference between the u.s. and ireland? ireland trades today a yield of 1.2. the u.s. is you know a little bit under 2%. that to me doesn't seem right. >> german bunds dropped 15% today. i got e-mails of stock traders

let's send it down to florida where cnbc's bob pisani is with world gold trust services ceo will ryan. bob? >> thank you very much bill and big etf.com conference 2,000 investment professionals. will ryan joining us. we are living in a deflationary world. that would seem to be not good news for gold and yet you are the sponsor of the gld, we're seeing inflows into the gld in the last few wekts. can you explain that? why is that happening? >> gold has had a good start to the year. the price of gold has increased year-to-date and we've had some pretty strong inflows off the back of that. but i think when people talk about deflationary forces and the global economy, you know one of the first reactions to that is governments looking to weaken their currency for competitive reasons, and currency weakness or debasement is has typically been a good thing for gold. >> just a quick question, will from kelly here. hello. thanks for joining us. as we talk about the pressure the financial pressure on some of these oil producing nations, how much downward pressure might that put on gold? how much

dan mcmahon raymond james and bob pisani. happy new year.ng the strength buying the weakness what are you doing? >> pooig the weakness. think the market will end the year higher probably 10 to 12% what we are calling for. why? where else will you put your money. >> what was the selloff about? >> about macroconcerns a all right coming out of europe a lot is tied to commodities people correlating weak commodities to weak demand obviously. if you look historically, very little historic correlation between crude and the market. it was just kind of you know, there was -- let's not forget where we came from either people taking chips off the table to start the year. >> make 2015 more some tile? this is the third pull back we have had since september and all three of them now have been v-shaped rallies. >> already anticipating a much more volatile market in 2015. pie even given the strength 2014 historically a very little -- had very little volatility relative to past markets, looking for more and a play significantly more. >> the earnings picture

. >> get to bob pisani see what's moving on the floor. >> mixed open for the u.s. stock market.f course, the story is the ecb fired that big bazooka, all you call it a trillion euro program, and implied open-ended there i don't know what more anybody could ask for. look at european stock markets. germany, at a new high by the way, moved to upside on an intraday basis. jumped around but modestly on the upside. i don't think you can judge it by looking at stocks though. if the goal lower bond yields and weaker euro it's got to be a success so far. eurodollar the euro plunged against the dollar here. we've got a ten-year low for that. . up the euro versus the dollar the a ten-year low you'll see. the big thing is, just on that the program's a success so far. there you see, look at the plunge in euro against the dollar here. u.s. futures up slightly going into the announcement. a lot of noise. we're still up fractionally. sectors that are up techs, industrials, consumer discretionary stocks are up. material stocks are on the upside. there's your leadership, growth areas for the u.s.

car cardiff joins us with mare ji thompson and bob pisani and tim seymour.rnoon, everybody. cardiff, is this all goldman's fault? >> i don't know. goldman's report on oil today is very good. if you have get your hands on it, i recommend it. i want to say the takeaway is any rebound in oil prices would probably be more "u" shaped than "v" shaped. they talk about storage capacity. the market is in a contango but storage capacity is very high. second thing they hit on is the business model, right? how manufacturing is essentially a model for what the shale industry is now and what phil verlager calls manufacturing in a sense. the point is if you look at what's happening with oil prices now, they don't just sneadnet to stay beneath break evens. now producers are invent advisecentivized to find technological improvements. >> wasn't goldman the guys who had $150 call on oil? >> $200. >> $200. or am i being rude? >> tim, you were saying as high as $200. >> it was bandied about, yes. >> the point being that at the time you can always kind of create a situation where

. >> bob pisani mentioned here on cnbc that when oil drops, 50%, in a 6-month time period -- >> as it -- oil is up 52% on average all 5 times that that's ever happened. oil price valuations price to book value and enterprise to ebitda earnings before interest appreciation taxes, it is in the tenth decimal. 90% above this. very cheap. >> does that mean you would buy energy related stocks? >> you could start nibbling. the yields on the big multinationals, 5% 5.5%. start nibbling. don't buy a full position. but get some ownership there. because the earnings basically bottom two months after the oil price bottom so then you start seeing the stocks can move higher. >> prices come down and first earnings report is as usual alcoa and wonder what input costs will mean to them because they're prices coming down as well. appreciably. >> i'm interested to see what they see about the impact of the auto industry with more going into building cars. aluminum cars and negative for the steel industry. in addition to that they may be having some problems if oil prices stay lower. but alcoa is interesti

keith bliss from katonah company and bob pisani.other new major wrinkle and today, of course it's the swiss national bank cutting free their currency. the indian central bank cut interest rates there as well. what's going on? what do you do with this here? you must be loving the volatility. >> waiting for it for four years now. it's a cascading effect of some troubling news. i mean there's no other way to put it. it's pretty clear to me that somebody whispered in the ear of the swiss national bank about what the ecb is doing next thursday and they decoupled away from the euro and trying do some manipulation inside the currency markets. it's extraordinary they took their deposit rate minus.75 to stave off the rally. we have a ways to go in the little downdraft. this is not the 10 or 20% correction we think but we could get into the 1965 level quickly. >> i'm more concerned about what's going on in the u.s. mortgage rates at 3.75%. >> 3.9% mortgage could refinance right now. >> homeowners are down 5%. lennar will make a 24% instead of

bob pisani is at home because of snow.tually avoiding this storm by very appropriately being down in florida. >> yeah. only you could plan this pisani. you're at the conference centered around exchange traded funds. so go ahead, you can begin this interview. it's all yours. >> it's 72 degrees here. that's all i'm going to say. we'll move on and talk about oil because commodities and what to do with them 2,000 investment professionals at the etf conference. jan is one of the big global advisers in the commodity area runs a commodity fund and a suite of commodity etfs out there. you have been watching oil for 30 years. where do you think it's going to go? has it bottomed? >> i think we think it's a little too early to say this is a definitive bottom bob. i think where our conviction is a year out, and we just think the fundamentals don't support such a low price, but when you've had such success, then there's a lot of traders -- >> everyone wants to know should we be buying oil now or oil stocks right now. you run a big etf,

joining me right now bob pisani. are you buying dips like this? >> we started buying some more today. look, it's day nine. there's 242 trading days left in the year. let's not throw in the towel quite yet and let's remember last year up 14% on the s&p 500. it started in a very similar fashion as what we're going through now. i wouldn't throw in the towel and stick with high quality companies, good dividend paying stocks. i know it's boring but it works. >> it's day nine and there's 240 days left? >> 242. >> that means half the day is wrong, right? i'm terrible with math. did you see the rally in energy we've had today? >> late today. >> 2:00 nothing is happening. suddenly it seems to have started with oil. then nat gas blew up and all the ou stocks started moving the xop, the expiration and production etf suddenly blows up. we know options are expiring on oil today. we talked about that. jackie talked about it as well. that's probably the explanation but it also coincided with the base book report. maybe the comments had a little bit of influence.

let's get over to bob pisani. >> happy new year guys. looking good. one sector is not up is energy stocks. you referencing oil back at $52 once again putting pressure on some of the usual names. this has become a volatile group. denbury usually moves how oil is. denbury, nabors, murphy, apache. that's typical when you see oil move in any one direction one way or another. a lot of people messages me saying why are we so interested in utilities and why was there a 4% drop in the last few days in utilities? it's been a greatly expanded class of asset investors in utilities as an asset class last year. i think the answer is simple. despite the price run-ups, the-year-olds are still very very attractive. with the big price-ups, you can get 4% yields in southern and ppl and duke and con ed. with a 25% run-up you get 4% yields. the other thing very important, investors feel these dividend yields are relatively safe. they don't think they are going to be attacked. unlike yields in high-yield plays out there, for example some of the oil and gas p