bob pisani has more on the geopolitical rumblings and how they affect the market. >> reporter: stocks were posting modest gains into the middle of the day. then you have to change course after president trump made comments it ended in the green. in contrast to the 200 point in the dow that happened yesterday, a every the federal reserve said they would be moving to reduce their balance sheet later this year and then house speaker paul ryan says tax reform could take longer than health care reform. both comments came at a much bicker impact on the markets. so here's the bottom line, geopolitical risk is now surfacing as a risk to markets. it's a big risk factor remains the federal reserve and any risk to the trump agenda, tax cuts and infrastructure spending. for "nightly business report," i'm bobpisan owe bob pisani at new york stock exchange. >>> we are now going to discuss, brad, i don't mean for you to criticize or contradict what bob pisani just said, as you look at the panoply of the markets and investors must consider, does he have it right, it remains, the fed the economy the t

and the reason is say that, we have relatively low rates, also as bob pisani was talking about before, highly priced equity stocks. the returns, the huge returns from 2008 and '09, may not be around for the next five years. if you have some industries or companies you really like, i would probably buy them too. >> always a pleasure, mike, thanks so much. mike holland of holland and company. >>> now to the economy, which is growing modestly across the country, so says the federal reserve beige book, an anecdotal look at the nation's economy. employment is expanding and inflation pressures remain muted, despite the difficulties some employers are having attracting and retaining workers. the head of the boston fed says it's time the central bank sheds its bond holdings in display way that's gradual so that it has little effect on the federal reserve's planned interest rate hikes. the fed, which is the largest holder of u.s. government debt, will likely start paring back some of its $4.5 trillion worth of assets as soon as this year. the central bank purchased the bonds in the years follo

but as bob pisani explains, there are still some headwinds for th. >> reporter: you could say big oil earnings are at a crossroads right now. the markets are near historic highs and earnings are rebounding nicely. the one fly in the ointment is energy stocks, they're down more than 10% this year, this while the s&p is up 7%. that's a huge disparate. it wasn't supposed to be this way. this was supposed to be the year of the big turnaround for big oil. so far that has not been the case. crude oil is down 9% year to date. the global energy market is undergoing a massive transition, shifting the focus away from the middle east and towards the u.s. it's a huge help to consumers. and it's a big headache for big oil. the result is the investor love affair with energy is waning. oil stocks lose as a value play. why buy oil stocks when oil is down and the rest of the market up? exxonmobile beat earnings expectations, earning more than r of last year. to the first that's largely because oil prices improved from $30 a barrel average in the first quarter last year to $50 in the first quarter this

for "nightly business report," i'm bob pisani and the new york stock exchange. >>> let's take a closer look at some of the risks bob just pointed out. we begin with the impetus for today's rally, the french election. but what happens next? michelle caruso-cabrera is here tonight. >> across paris and around france, voters lined up to cast their ballots for who they believe should be the next president of france. for many, the decision was made at the last minute. when did you decide? this morning? >> last night. >> reporter: this morning? marine le pen and emmanuel macron came out on top. his camp not getting ahead of itself. >> we will see what will happen in the following two weeks. you can have a lot of events during the campaign. so we're very cautious. we didn't open the bottle of champagne. >> reporter: but the markets sure did, rallying around the world on the belief that macron is a shoo-in to win the second round in two weeks. >> i think what we just had was the first part of one of the most important elections in europe since world war ii. >> reporter: important because this v

bob pisani has more. >> reporter: why the rally today? it's a tricky call, but several factors are fueling the move higher. earnings have been mostly positive today, whether it's csx helping the railroads or qualcomm helping semi conductors, the earnings story has generally been better than expected, at least today. secondly, europe had a strong close. it's been choppy this week, french elections have been a major concern for the markets. but those worries eased today on hopes that more moderate candidates might prevail in the first round of elections over there. third, after a lot of hand wringing in washington, there's talk about a house compromise on health care, and could be a major move forward, and more tax cut talk, as steve mnuchin said we're close to bringing forward major tax reform. lastly, a bit of a bounceback. sectors that sold off this month reversed today, particularly retail stocks and steel stocks. the president talked up steel all throughout the morning. the bottom line, there's not been a lot of movement in the markets

bob pisani has a look. >> reporter: so far the market likes had an what it sees. stocks have rallied because of long-awaited tax cuts now in play. earnings guidance that has generally been better than traders anticipated. now, full year guidance has been strong, particularly in the industrial space. so the largest names like caterpillar and 3m and honeywell, stanley black & decker, have not only beaten the guidance but also raised full year estimates. ge and united technologies both reaffirmed their full year outlook. that's a huge relief to the markets, because traders have been concerned because stocks have expensive by historic standards. analysts have been modelling notable increases in earnings for the rest of the year based on not trump tax cuts but on an improving global economy. first quarter profits are expected to jump 12%, the best gain in six years. they have similarly high hopes for the rest of the year. by the way, this is not just the united states. earnings have also improved in europe. the stock 600, the european equivalent of the s&p 500, saw ear

for "nightly business report," bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >>> there's a curious trend emerging in the market. those stocks are higher in the past few months but not all are participating in the move to the upside. dominic chu takes a look. >> reporter: stocks are near record highs again. but for many market observers, the story isn't nearly as bullish as those headlines would suggest. that's because they're not seeing as many companies participating fully in the stock market rally. most of the heavy lifting in the market has come from mega cap technology related names. >> one of the things that's leading people to invest in these mega cap market leading areas of the market and stocks is that, you know, there is a lot of concern from a policy perspective. the reality is that they want to make sure they're hedging a little bit and buying companies that will be growth drivers. >> reporter: the s&p 500's five most valuable stocks make up around 12% of the total index. each of those five stocks is having a winning record so far in 2017. apple, google parent alphabet, micros

>> a long day tore bob pisani. j.p. morlgen is probably right.dn maxon april 17th reported a ridiculous quarter on january 16th or 17th. stock has been basically wound tripped ever since. goldman has to hold 220 in my opinion. >> that i have to come up with a another blockbusters earnings release. >> i'm a bit more skeptical. i started to say earlier in the show, i don't think they will be able to guide in a way that kind of supports where they are. not supporting valuations, valuations are fine. i they lot of things have to go from here, including deregulation and tax reform. they need to you snap something with that yield curve. >> they don't need to do it right overnight. look at that time chart, that tells you you pulled back massively. banks have done nothing this year. >> whoa, the chart w. le talk about the chart the fundamental also? the chart? >> yeah, you know what guys, but, but, why don't you both go chart yourself? >> what? >> you go chart yourself. >> yep. >> you both go chart yourself. >> let's go look at it. >> time for a new segm

it's hard out there, flu data shows being passive is actually paying off, bob pisani is at the stockhange with more. >> hiing melissa. you we heard actively managed funds under perform benchmarks, recent data says longer-term trends are worse than the shorter-term trends. let's look at large cap funds, for example, s&p global, 88% under perform tear benchmark after five years, it's just as bad after longer periods, after ten years, 85% under perform, it gets worse. over 15 years, 92% under perform. it doesn't get any better for small or mid-cap stocks. roughly 90% under perform over all periods. the markets have seen low volatility and some are arguing periods of higher volatility would benefit actsive management and that doesn't appear to be the case either. it's really hard for active managers to out perform. hard but not impossible. dan leader that runs a news paper, noted 14 of vanguard's aptly managed funds outperform the index funds. but these returns were greatly helped by the low cost structure. this will only put low pressure on active managers to cut fees, close funds and m

bob pisani. when we come back, a lot more on the market reaction from last night's strikes and the jobs number this morning. dow down 19. we'll talk to the former council of economic advisers ed lazear when "squawk alley" continues after this. at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more val. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. >>> march payrolls falling. joining us this morning, oppenheimer cio and wells fargo head market strategist to break this story down. good morning to you both. >> good morning. >> march weak but q1 best in five years. should we write march off? >> i think focusing on month by month basis doesn't make much sense. we're talking about a really decent growth environment and while things may be peaking, they're not decelerating to a level where it causes any bit of panic. >> that's right. you still have the fed online for two, maybe three rate hikes this year. you

bob pisani explains. >> stocks rose today, the big question is, why? we opened weak with good reason. the economic data on friday and this morning was poor. as you look at it, you might scratch your head and wonder what happened. for example, retail sales fell for the second straight month. producer prices were down for the first time in seven months. it sounds like the move toward growth is on life support. the markets turned around shortly after the open, because the market became oversold and bounced the most oversold sector, banks, are the ones that bounced the most. other sectors, semiconductors, materials, they performed better today. geopolitical jitters resurfaced last week after being dormant for a very long time. trade brought a lot of protection ahead of the three-day easter holiday. since nothing happened over the holiday, that trade was being unwound somewhat today. there's one final potential catalyst, tax day, ending tomorrow. the weeks leading into tax day have been down modestly for the market, with the modest rally in the weeks after

bob pisani joins us with more. bob? >> reporter: hello, michelle. happy monday. we're rallying today. look at the s&p 500. the big question he is why exactly are we rallying? the short answer is we have been oversold for a while now. the s&p closed on thursday at its lowest level since the middle of february. the drift slow and downward. overall i think that's the clearest answer. let's look at the sectors today. more back. we started poor on the reflation trade. banks, techs, industrials, there's your reflation rate. we've had very modest volume today again but we've seen some high volume etfs, the reflation stocks, copper miners have been better, that core s&p 500 is the growth sector of the s&p 500. and yet if you look elsewhere, the dollar is not moving much. the ten-year note is not moving much, the yield is not that amazing. it's just in stocks. they've been puzzled by this rally because the reflation trade hasn't done much. retail sales fell the second straight month. consume earp prices, the end of last week down for the first time in seven months. this i

bob pisani has more. >> reporter: this is one of wall street's most famous adages. i can argue about why it works. over long periods there's something to it. since 1950 the s&p 500 has been up 0.4% during the may to october period, compared to a gain of 7% during the november to april period. this connection was brought to light in 1986. sounds good. but in the past ten years they've refined this call by layering in two additional factors, a technical signal and a signal based on presidential cycles. the technical signals will get you in earlier than may 1 if the market is trending up and opposite if the market is trending down. the other signal involves the presidential cycle. don't sell in may of the third and fourth year of the presidential cycle when markets tend to outperform. this means you only need to make four trades every four years. combining these two signal produces turbo charged results, an average loss of 0.8% per year from may to october compared to a gain of 10% during november to april. translating this to money is a better way to look at it a 10,0

let's check on the markets and check in with bob pisani at the nyse. >> reporter: hello, melissa. two things moving the market, earnings and taxes. look at the s&p 500, 2396. if we closed here that would be a historic closing high. guidance, number one. this has been a trend. boeing, rockwell, northrop, ingersoll-rand, even timken. earnings have been strong, close to 12%. we've had the best quarter since 2011 and they're not lowering the number. geopolitical risks a little lower. guidance disappointment, risks out there lower. tax cuts are in play. that's a positive that's in play. weak ms. is out there. we'll see if it can get better over the poor first quarter data. everything is moving in favor of higher stocks. >> bob pisani, thank you very much. >>> let's bring in kate warren with edward jones. and michael jones, chief investment officers and chairman with riverfront investment group. kate, i can't speak for my trusty co-hosts but when i go out and talk to people they will often ask me now, doggone it, i missed the rally. i was scared of the stock market. is it too late to ge

on those first-round results out of france, let's check in with bob pisani at the new york stock engsnge. up, up and away, bob. >> reporter: indeed. we're holding up. look at our market internals. these are very strong numbers particularly for a monday. 3-1 advancing, new highs are expanding. over 200 at the new york stock exchange. volume, call it moderate heading to the heavy side. haven't seen that in a while. the volatility is collapsing. take a look at the vix, the fear gauge. up around 16 on concerns about north korea and even on the french elections just collapsing down to around 11. and it's not just the vix. look at global markets. the global markets and the vix are telling us there was a risk premium associated with the french elections in europe, japan, and the united states. look at the s&p up nicely. we're about 30 months, a historic high from the s&p 500. part of the risk was clear ly i the banking community. stocks rallied big time over in europe and they're rallying here big time particularly the money center banks but even the regional guys, sun trust, financials also

good morning, bob pisani. >> you're exactly right. both of them and that's 70 points in the dow so the whole decline in the dow is goldman and johnson & johnson. united health had earnings helping a little bit. let's look at europe. europe was closed yesterday and that reflation trade is looking rocky over there as well. lot of the commodity names are down. bhm billiton, anglo american, and oil companies, statoil, bp also on the downside. that commodity weakness is spilling over into the united states as well so energy is down, oil is below $53 again here in the united states. some of the other names, materials are down, banks you see are down and slightly more defensive tone to the market as consumer staples and utilities are leading here. we gave you the details on the goldman sachs and the big miss on their trading revenues. bank of america different story there, they've generally had good trading revenues. i want to concentrate on the regional banks because that's where you get the bigger stories. you want to be interested in loan

carl, back to you. >> thank you very much, bob pisani.ord run and what to expect in the second quarter as we go to break a look at the movement in treasuries this morning. checking out the ten year, right around 2384. back in a minute. hello, my name is watson. i am helping 8 million taxpayers get the largest refund they deserve. one million people can benefit from precision cancer care. 197 million passengers can fly with less turbulence. i am on my way to working with one billion people. i look forward to working with you. please repeat the objective. with one billion people. ♪ thrivent mutual funds. managed by humans, not robots. before investing, carefully read and consider fund objectives, risks, charges and expenses in the prospectus at thriventfunds.com. over hereno!ver here! (dog barking) whoever threw it has to go get it. not me! somebody will get it... ♪ (dog barking) anyone can dream. making it a reality is the hard part. from the b-2 to the upcoming b-21, northrop grumman stealth bombers give america an advantage in a turbulen

some of today's top dow gainers are bob pisani is watching a lot of different things moving on the floor. >> complicated parts. 2378. off of the highs. two things moving things. higher yield and higher oil. take a look at the k.b. this is the bank index. buying finally started coming off of the lows of yesterday. we weakened a little bit. they can't decide where they want to go. that's a big influence. energy, the xle, oil stocks, they moved as oil rallied towards 52 dolz. they came down. copper is up, nickel is up, zinc is up. some of the copper stocks are moving there. freeport may reopen that copper mine in indonesia they have had problems with. a big ipo in the energy space. hess missstream, they own pipelines in the bokken. 25.50. they priced at $23. nice move. big ipo markets opening up. stock markets doing better. this is a yield play. 6% dividend yield in a dividend yield that's growing year by greer. you have everybody piling in to this one. good morning overall. guys, back to you. >> speaking of yields, ten-year, still around 2354 as we got oil inventories to deal with. ism had

we have the ceo of elevate and also at post nine our own bob pisani.t was the difficulty in getting this ipo out the door? seems to be trading well now. how frustrating was that? what was so hard about getting it done? >> we like to add extra drama to your day in the morning getting things through the s.e.c. they've been terrific. as you can see, already showing some good growth in the stock. >> you specialize in what others consider subprime borrowers with credit scores below 700. there are concerns whether these people will payback losses that have grown a bit year over year. are you optimistic that this new administration and some changes in regulation might help you out? why should investors think this is going to get better? >> we're serving a huge percentage of customers that have terrible credit options. more than two-thirds of the u.s. have a credit score less than 700 and need products like ours. we've been growing like crazy. 100% growth rate over the past three years. the fastest growing company. i think that's because of this large underser

>>> bob pisani now with what's taking the air out of the market.pl there's a dangerous stew of uncerta uncertainty for stocks rig nouchlt first, fiscal reforms are being pushed out. the honeymoon is over on tax cuts. yesterday, the president said he was working on tax cuts and the market ignored him and from retail sales to the consumer index to producer index. economic data has been weaker than expected. the odds for a fed june rate hike are down to 44%. close to 60% more than a week ago. third, geo political risk. the french election, a tougher stance on brexit from the uk. particularly, north korea, all background stories until the last few weeks. weaker data and grk eo political risks have put downward pressure on bond yields, another big problem and finally, earnings risks. stocks are expensive. this leaves stocking vulnerable in a sell off, particularly if there's a slightest hint of an issue and the important thing here is look what happened to goldman sachs yesterday and ibm today. the worry is that the first quarter might represent the pea

. >>> and sticking with the morning's rally, let's go to bob pisani on the floor. >> rally's holdingwell. even in france, there are still close to 4%, not quite at the highs. the sectors, banks are leading although had a great rally up until about 10:00 and come off the highs. industrials and materials, there's the reflation trade. gold to the downside. got a lot of new highs today. over 200 at the new york stock exchange. we had first the bank report earnings. industrials are reporting. numbers are good. illinois tool works this morning. historic high for them. honeywell reported on friday. good numbers. stanley, black & decker also talked about earnings full year. being better than expected. 3m 52-week high. earnings so far pretty good. banks and industrials. getting more. techs hit new highs today. facebook, microsoft, alphabet, adobe, kla-tencor, we're seeing the new highs. as of the moment, the vix collapsed back down again and an inverted "u" there to 11 or so. that's where we were in the early part of march. where are we in terms of market risk? you heard earlier. the markets

one of the busiest weeks -- >> seven deals as bob pisani has chronicled so well.anagement, and look, this is the end of the "q" here. i want to caution people that when you have this many deals, you really have to bear down really you have to look at wh what -- what's your merchandise, what to buy. >> wells is the second biggest loser. pnc is the single biggest gainer. >> yeah. i mean, everybody loves pnc. everyone is scrutinizing it. wells is so overscrutinized it's so crayzy. my charitable trust has owned it forever. and people again, you want to sell wells fargo. of course you're going to 49. then you have to buy it back. fine. yes. yes. is that mets, mets, mets because of last night? >> it might as well be, but it's not. >> phillies were eeliminated last night. >> season over for you? move on to football. you have been itching to get it back to football. >> i get to announce the fourth draft pick for the eagles on saturday. >> that's true? >> yeah. mr. lurie and howie rosen, thank you very much. >> very nice. i want to talk metals with you. because iron ore is

bob pisani is on the floor of the nyse. saw an interesting report that the first quarter was the least volatile quarter for the dow jones industrial average in more than 50 years. the dow on average moved only about 30 points per day. it looks like we're starting the second quarter with a little more volatility. >> reporter: a little more but volume is still on the light si side. that may continue. we're down but well off the lows, brian. we were as low as 2343. earlier today. we're almost ten points higher on that. volume is still on the light side. not a lot of rush to the exits even though the market is down. what's moving the market? two things going on. number one is this battle we've got between, let's call it the hard versus the soft data between, for example, auto sales which were disappointing and the ism number which is a soft data point down a little bit but still very, very robust. that battle has been going on for a while. then that washington calendar and the trump agenda going on here. so hard versus soft dat

bob pisani joining me here. so many stories factoring into this day.ery good rally on the back of that adp jobs number which was very strong, 263,000 jobs when we were expecting only about 185,000. now we wait for friday's number. then the foimc minutes which lately have been a non-event. >> normally are a non-event. two things moved the market. the fed and paul ryan. look at what matters to the world. the trump agent matters. fed says we don't expect fiscal stimulus until 2018. then paul comes out and says tax reform could take longer than health care reform, saying that the three bodies of government are not even on the same page yet on tax reform. that's not helpful. what else matters to the market? interest rates. the fed says we're considering reducing our balance sheet this year. well, markets said, wait a minute, reducing the balance sheet is almost like another tax hike -- excuse me, rate hike. >> right. >> that's not terribly helpful to the market. finally, valuations we debate this all the time. the fed said, valuations for the stock market s

bob pisani running through all of this. >> a bunch of stuff, taxes and earnings, but earnings have beenood. look at united technology goes, affirmed their full-year guidance. that's important. nobody is bringing numbers down. here is another one, industrials, northrop grumman, they raised their full-year guidance. that stock is trading up fractionally over here. i will show some other industrials. ingersol rand came out with numbers yesterday, today they raised lie end of their guidance. that stock is up nicely as well here. let me show you an unrelated group here. twitter here, look, up 9% here. low bar for twitter here. they allayed concerns. they reported sales weren't as bad as some peopler with afraid of. sale revenue is still down 8% compared to last year but better than expected and they had 9 million new active monthly users. best in two years. good news in twitter. haven't seen it a lot. finally, keep an eye on the s&p 500, look, 2395. we get over that, that's a new historic closing high. guys, the thing that matters this week, lower geopolitical risk, lower earnings risk impor

bob pisani. for more on what retail investors are saying about the market.ring in the founder of interactive brokers, many call him the father, i should say godfather t. father of high speed trading. tom, welcome to the show. i will kick it off what problem pisani was asking, did you get long the trump rally? >> well, i must see the dumb money, it's election night. i went very long. >> you went very long. are you still long? i'm curious how that compares with the quote/unquote, you know, professional money in the markets today and what you're seeing at interactive brokers? >> well, first, i'm still long, but i'm lightning up. and as our interactive brokers, our customers are concerned, they have very optimistic. in the last three months, we have more than ever before and our customers actually see the reason by first cents and margin loans relative to a year ago. butsh sorry. >> tom, i was going to mention margins,ly bring it up. margin debt is at historic highs, does that concern you at all or one of the things you don't worry about until it's a story? >> s

bob pisani has the numbers. breaking it down for us at the nyse, bob. >> reporter: hello, tyler. it's about tech and energy, and that's what's moving the markets. the sectors that are up today, tech and energy, and lagging are most of the rest of the sectors, materials and banks, for example. tech earnings, let's start with alphabet. huge revenue, better than expected earnings. the stock is up as you heard there. amazon, big earnings beat. revenue edged past expectations. both are up. microsoft better than expected earnings. maybe a miss on revenue slightly and that's why it's down. intel not sure why it's down. boosted their qforecast for 201. take a look at energy. now big oil coming in. exxon and mobile good numbers. exxon more than doubled its earnings and the revenues went up 30%. it's a very simple reason why. look at the price of oil in the first quarter of last year. it was $31 on average. last quarter it was $51. that's a huge difference and that's why they did better. here is the bad news. exxon's price is down 10% this year. they're all terrible performers because the

first, though, to bob pisani on the nyse floor. >> reporter: this is unusual trading, tyler, two daysn a row. the s&p 500, two days in a row we move up big and flat lined throughout the day. no attempt to sell off. look at that, two days in a row on the upside here. 14 points away from a historic high. the markets are moving because a lot of companies are giving decent guidance for the full year. look at the effect caterpillar is having on the machinery stocks they compete with. it's moving deere, terex, the whole sector has moved up. elsewhere, yields are backing up. that's helping the banks. the big money center banks have had a terrific two-day run. the regionals are strong. home builders are under pressure. pulte missed and the tariff news, you see the home builders to the down side. risks are lower. there is lower risk from geopolitical events going on. the tax cuts failing, that's a risk but we know that's in play. the president is trying to make some progress this week. economic data, that risk remains high. the first quarter hasn't been good. the bulls are arguing the second q

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, carl and happy wednesday.eflation trade is working for the moment. gold is down, ten year is up. we are seeing the dollar up a little bit. that's the reflation trade. stocks normally react positivity to that. generally that's happening. let's look at the markets. major sectors here. banks which have been the big losers down about 2%. they're rallying in materials and industrials. consumer staples that's lagging along with real estate investment trusts as well as utilities. how is the retail investor doing? i like to talk about the retail investor. i look at schwab and ameritrade earnings. ameritrade they said something similar to what charles schwab had been saying yesterday. brokerage account openings have increased rather notably and client assets have i believe creased. a lot of worried about the commission war going on. but those cuts have been off by -- have been offset by the asset in flows here. the ceo tim hockey kind of implied that investor enthusiasm was a factor. and the strong investor engagement

bob pisani is going inside the numbers from the floor of the new york stock exchange. bob, what happened? >> reporter: good to see you as always. there's a dangerous uncertainty for stocks. fiscal reforms are being pushed out. the hohn y moon's over on tax cuts and less regulation and infrastructure spending. the president said he was working on tax cuts yesterday. the market ignored him. weaker data to the consumer price index to the producer price index, economic data has been weaker. the odds for a fed rate hike 44%. close to 60% just a little more than a week ago. third, geopolitical risk. the french election, a tougher stance on brexit, particularly north korea, all background stories until just the last few weeks. the weaker data and geopolitical risks have put downward pressure and finally a new one, earnings risks. the risk is to the down side. this leaves stocks vulnerable to a sell-off particularly if there's even the slightest hint of an issue. you doubt me? look at what happened to goldman sachs and ibm. the worry is the first quarter might represent the pea

bob pisani. let's get to rick santelli. we are awaiting for speaker ryan.soon as he starts the q&a. rick, take it away. >> you know, david, of course rates have been a little drift lower. lot more volatility than we have seen on an intraday base. you see the two day chart there. you see the today's action the way we turned right back down. a couple of basis points. down one base point on the curve for today. i want to show -- the charter shows you there's some defense of the 232 area and 237, 2015 settlement big area on the charts. if you open up to december 1st it's an interesting pattern. the real debate, will it hold the bottom of the range? a couple of other charts that say it will. one of the charts is the following. the tens -- they give you a directional buy as to which way the spread will go. let's say we hold the bottom of this range. if you look at tens minus twos since november 1st, we're the flattest on that spread. now under 110. so we want to monitor that. bob is absolutely right. i like to pick the chart of the day that's most viewed by floor

. >> all right, let's get to bob pisani, it is crowded on the floor today. orning, bob. >> noisy crowd here. six ipos, five of them down here, but earnings are a big story here. let me show you the sectors because the sectors that are moving are the earning sectors. you heard about the tech earnings that's a leader. a big day for energy as well. materials and consumer staples are lagging here. let me show you the big oil. exxon had good news. chevron beat as well. cabot oil and gas is on the upside here. the good news about the oil, the numbers came in okay so just look at exxon. $4 billion in earnings for the first quarter. that's twice what they made last year. that's generally good news. people were excited about that and the reason all this happened is the price of oil went up. it's that simple. oil is $31 in the first quarter. remember last year it was in the 20s, now it's in the mid 50s so the price of -- the average price of oil has been strong overall. that's been a big one. another one just went public down here. here's the bad news. look at exxon, d

let's get to bob pisani. >> 3:1 advancing to declining stocks.ved on geopolitical events in the french election. today we're moving on earnings. two big risk areas, a little less risk in the market. take a look at the sectors right now. it's the reflation trade, it's banks, it's techs, it's materials, a little bit on the industrial side. you look at the industrial earnings, caterpillar you heard about the great numbers, 3m had great numbers and raised their guidance. 3m is at an historic high right now, tough to move it forward even with good guidance but the guidance is coming up to the expectations. that's the key right now. look at the comments. look what jim umpleby said "these are encouraging signs with promising quoting activity in many of the markets we serve and retail sales to users turning positive for both machines and energy and transportation for the first time in several years." how much more positive can you possibly get? look at all the companies that have not only beat guidance but they are raising guidance for the full year, in

let's get to bob pisani. >> more defensive names today, reflation off, used to call it risk off.s up, what i mean reflation off a little bit, consumer staples up. real estate was up as well, consumer staples just turned negative. the industrials and banks are weak again today. we had a terrible month in the last few days, some big banks down 3%. bank of america down 3%. they keep sinking fractional pieces every single day. elsewhere europe kind of quiet. i would note the luxury stocks are trading well. we reported yesterday, listening to courtney talking about how well lvmh did. they had amazing numbers out after the close so that stock is up double-digit gains across in leathers and fashion and wine and spirits. really just a blow-out quarter. burberry opening on the upside. we have talked about earnings expected to be up 10% in the u.s. for the first quarter. what people don't know a lot about is europe global earnings are expected to do really well in this quarter and for the full year. it's one of the reasons global markets have been doing so well, for full year estimates we'

more now on today's market action, bob pisani live on the floor of the nyse where the good continue to roll. bob? >> reporter: and this is good times. this is a broad wrally, brian. 29 of 30 dow stocks on the upside. i'll show you how broad it is. put up five of the big dow movers. you have consumer discretionary group, mcdonald's doing well, all the health care stocks up. all the big industrials like caterpillar up. caterpillar has had a great two days. you have the oil stocks moving as oil is moving towards $52. and then you have the tech names, even ibm and goldman sachs is up. 50 dow points, about a third of the dow movers just in these five stocks. you can see what's going on with the ipo business, very succe successful pipeline company today. play on yield, 6% yield, play on oil moving up, and it's a play on stronger market overall. this is a very impressive debut, bodes well for the ipo market. what's the market doing? it's resilient. did you see the action the last three days? every single day in the last three days we've been down in the middle of the day and somehow the marke

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, guys. up trend day. reflation trade definitely. saw the fragile x foundation ringing the bell. the guys are very involved in that, very worthy organization. as i mentioned, reflation trade. the bank stocks are leading. the reflation trade leads and then we have a sell-off in the middle of the morning. that second line there, that is the semiconductors index which is doing very well. up almost 3% this week. that's a big move. the upside industrials, there's your reflation trade. consumer staples. defensive, they're lagging. materials also on the upside here. just checking in on earnings here. good earnings reports here. dr horton the building business is doing very well. they beat a 13% rise in new orders. their revenues are higher than expected. they're going to close more homes. that stock is near multiyear highs. to do it yourselfed by is doing very well. sherman williams they had good numbers, raised their guidance. same-store sales sales up 7%. we're getting some of the big industrial names. i love those because they work all o

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, carl. 2-1 declining to stocks and that dollar to yen thingem. europe mostly on the upside. let's look at the sectors here. this is the reflation trade off again here. banks just went positive. they were down at the open. industrials materials have been down. energy finally went positive. 53 -- solidly over 53 for oil. not a lot of gains for energy stocks today. gold up again. new record for the year for gold. i want to show you iron ore, steel stocks. iron ore prices tumbled around the world. they were down 8% in china overnight. you can see the big steel and iron ore stocks to the down side. look at iron ore prices they're down 25% in the last month. there's been some talk demand in china may be lower. but remember, iron ore went up rather dramatically six or seven months ago around the trump election. maybe on global optimism, maybe for other reasons. you can see it's been trending downwards, it was down notably overnight. the other issue, the other talk is bank earnings starting. we have been talking about it all week. there are a number o

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, carl, what a monday morning. 6-1 advancing to declining stocksthat's going on in europe they have a huge rally. all the bank stocks, your deutsche banks and some of the -- the italian banks are up. even axa is up. even broad sectors are up. so siemens and the conglomerate group is up. put up the other one in europe. the auto stocks are trading on the upside like bmw. put up the next one there. you can see what's going on. the important thing is there you go. ovmh everything is moving to the upside. ten of 11 sectors are on the upside. telecom is down here. industrials and materials and gold is the big laggard. the earnings parade is continuing, it's favorable. been good so far. illinois tool weeks, an historic high for them. they make arc welding equipment, construction products, food equipment. everything. 100 countries. and 50% is outside the united states so this is part of the pattern. they beat and they raised their full year guidance. we have seen this with a number of the big overall companies out there. so ge beat and stanley & decker bea

. >>> all right, let's get straight to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. indeed. and there are several events before mr. mnuchin made comments that helped this out. first, we had better earnings numbers and we've had a whole bunch of companies reporting today that had positive comments overall. that's the most important thing i think early on. then we had a very strong europe close. that was number two. bond yields went up going into the european close as opposed to the last few days. that really helped. we also had some talk about a house compromise on health care. i think sthathat was a little bn the mix. and a half an hour ago, steve mnuchin, treasury secretary, seemed pretty close to bringing forward major tax reform. and that was a little icing on the take. we were up 175 and we just moved forward right from there. sectors today, banks were up, right at the open. we had a great bank reporting season. for the most part, goldman a bit of an exception. industrials were strong. csx helped all the railroads. materials were strong, steel stocks were strong.

let's check in with bob pisani, the dow is up nine points.ng. >> happy thursday, everybody it's a mixed market at the open. the numbers are crummy in the first quarter of the year, so let's look at the sectors. a big day for tech after the close. industrials have been doing very well, all the big industrials have reported. energy is just a problem. $48 on oil again. it's been maddening covering oil for the last two months. $53 to $46 to $53, now to $48. this all in two months. just a gigantic seesaw here. materials slightly weak though. had a good month overall here. most of the big industrials have now reported. today's the final day for most of the big names and generally the trend has been positive. so look, borg warner, they beat the raised guidance. parker hannifin, big in the airplane auto parts and raytheon, they beat. they raised. this has been a trend. industrials had generally been raising guidance so all of the big names, your caterpillar, 3m. look at the names. boeing, rockwell, raytheon, all have guided higher for the full year.

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning. happy monday.nsports are leading because of that trucking deal but overall, let's call it sort of the reflation trade is back a little bit. take a look at the sectors right now. energy's up. oil has made a complete turn around. 52 to 46, back to 52 again. nice moves up in the industrials and tech all leading here. defensive names utilities, consumer staples lagging. gold is lagging again. the reflation trade is back on a little bit. look at the energy stocks. every day they had come back. a lot are at two month highs now. you have hess and you get the small moves every day and suddenly you have nice moves and again total u-turn for bomost o the big names. we need them to contribute to the overall earnings package because we're expecting big gains this quarter and the next one. where are we right now? we're in a purgatory. i heard this over the weekend we're stuck 1 to 2% below the old record. that haves the day after the president spoke to congress here. the risks are out there. there are three big

bob pisani is on the floor. good morning. >> good morning, happy wednesday.mportant thing about today, nice open. better than two to one. advancing to declining stocks. the reflation trade is kind of back here. so you have banks. you have energy stocks. materials and industrials all leading the way here. where are we right now? a lot of debate about the trump agenda versus earnings versus growth. my sense right now is that the trump agenda is not the immediate issue for the stock market. that's what you an intermediate term risk. the thing that everyone is focused on right now is growth number one and earnings number two. and on this front we've got some encouraging news in the last day or so on the banks and in the energy stocks. take a look at the bank stocks here. we heard mr. trump, president trump excuse me mentioning yesterday he was going to see a major hair cut in dodd/frank. don't know if that's going to happen. i think that helped the bank stocks. we have 2.31 yesterday. now we're at 2.37. these have major implications for bank earnings. the banks h

now to bob pisani. >> good morning. we're up, but a very mixed morning. you're right.more defensive tone. gold has been strong all day. we mentioned this all week. gold is at the highest level since going back to november. we see consumer staple stocks on the upside as well. health care on the upside. you'd think energy would be up more when oil is close to $53 but we're below $52 so it's not as strong as you might expect. industrials have been strong as carl mentioned that's very simply because the defense stocks are all up. you can see raytheon, lockheed martin, boeing, general dynamics all on the upside. caterpillar and honeywell are on the upside as well. where's the risk right now in the market? i think the important thing is to note given the developments overnight, geopolitical risk is definitely back on the radar for traders. however, other market risks i think still rank higher. any risks to the trump agenda, any risks from the fed getting more aggressive than traders already anticipate. and now risk to the economy as well. look at the dow movements that we sa

let's go to bob pisani. >> good morning. nice positive open to the markets.going on overseas. that's because everybody is closed. europe and hong kong is closed, australia is closed. look at the sectors here. banks started positive, just turned negative. that's been a problem all month. by and large, what we like to call the reflation trade, materials, and tech modestly to the upside. health down is for the month now. it's fallen back here. speaking of the banks, earnings are light here. we got m&t bank. this is one of the big northeast banks. they're a big retail operation overall. that's slowly sinking down along with the other banks this month as interest rates have dropped. but they beat -- they did have better tax benefits but notably they had higher net interest income. this is a positive development that we have been seeing for a number of the banks overall. you see that's up nicely after being in a down trend for a while. so it's early right now, but we have five banks reporting so far. i think the key here couple points here, most are surprising to t

let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, carl. happy friday, everybody. open, nasdaq down a little bit. but remember historic high on the nasdaq yesterday. a sign of a mixed market. the key are the industrials are up because three industrials, three good reports there. there's your up sector. energy tough time for a good part of the week even though oil has stabilized a little bit. still a tough week for oil. banks are down, so you see a bit of a mixed market. three industrials, three good reports. the guys talked about ge and honeywell. but the bottom line is you can see here, ge flat. honeywell up nicely. dover, stanley black & decker, a great report. very tough to get organic growth, organic growth means cut out all the acquisitions. tools are what stanley black & decker are about. about 65% of the sales. organic growth, 6%. those are great numbers, better than expected. industrial is strong. security is up 1%. maybe they expected more out of that. but that's a small part of the overall business. this is a terrific report overall and of course i mentio

let's get to bob pisani. >> that ten-year is the primary mover of the stock market right now.'s look at what's going on. the european autos after the debacle yesterday with u.s. auto stocks, all trading down a little bit. we did get some u.s. numbers out of the companies, daimler had mercedes sales in the u.s. up 2%, volkswagen had u.s. sales up 2.7%, not bad numbers but all down in sympathy for what happened yesterday. we have this risk-off width to the market. gold at 1,57 on gold, the highest level since the election in the beginning of november. ten-year was 2.31, it's up earlier since stocks opened. the lowest since the end of november. the vix up a little bit, not much but was 11, just a few days ago. ten-year is a problem, you look at the sectors, the banks are down again, the kbe primary bank etfs got 10%. banks just went positive a moment ago, they were negative at the open and the reflation trade, your industrials and energy all having trouble sort of moving into positive territory. tech which has been the market leader slightly to the downside. the hot topic is the

. >> our baub pisani over by the trading post with more. it is weighing on the market today, bob?> great. good to see you. there's a new risk to the market and that's earnings risk. we haven't had it before. let me show you ibm. they normally do four million shares a day. look at that, 16 million shares, more times more than normal, down 8%, the whole reason the dao is down. the important thing is you have several issue. stocks are expensive, risk to the down side. first problem was the revenue miss ibm had. the market is merciless about that. there's a second reason there's a problem out there. ibm along with many stocks had a huge runnup post-election. it went from about $154 on november 8 or 9 to about $180 in mid-december, a move up of about 17%. it has slowly been coming down in the last is efrl weeks here. three things are going on. number one, you combine a high priced stock or stock moving up rather aggressively in the last few months with a big revenue miss with the idea stocks are expensive in general, and combine it with the trump agenda, the tax cut can issue kind of f