bob pisani has the story. >> call it t triumph of indexing. fund managers continue to trail their benchmarks. active managers who claim they would do better during periods of heightened volatility will have to find anoer argument. this week s&p dow jones indices released its report on how actively managed funds performed adainst the b market. active managers continued to show dismal performance against their passive index benchmarks. roughly 65% ofarge cap funds lagged the s&p 500 last year. thatks now m the ninth straight year that's happened. 2018 stood out because othe volatility in the fourth quarter. a managers did not ose wild outperform. that will bolster the claims of any financial managers who say investing in low cost funds remain the sound's investment strategy. this study has been going on for 16 years. the long-term results only strengthen the claim for index investing. indeed while a fund manager may outperform for a year or two, the ou erformance does not last. after ten years 90% of large cap ndsunderperform the s&p 500. after

but asls bob pisani tel us now, .he market is in a critical >> reporter: this is an alportant moment for the market. we're f breaching this 2800 level in the suspect&p 500e have a shot at getting at the 2820 level. you might recall this is the have where five rallies failed in the last six months and a break above 2820 may drag in more itinvestors. de the ongoing worries about boeing, the volatility index, the vix, has dropped to its lowest levels of the year. one thing might be happening. friday is a quadruple witching day. that's the quarterly expiration of the futures and options, theyine all expirg at the same time. so why is that important? there's been a historically slight upward bias in this ek particular the s&p has been up 24 times this week since 1993. 's been down just 12 times. but what will it take to really pu the market higher? i think the key is the global growth story here. we had solid data with the economic news on durable goods and producer prices and that may help bulls argue thats earni may not actually turn negative for the first and second quarters. that's be

bob pisani >>> the new trading month is under way. the dow and the s&p 500 having their best two month start to a year in about three decades. despite the uncertainty about trade and growth, they are both up about 11% year-to-date and look at the nasdaq composite up 14% even better. so can we head higher from here? joining us now, david katz, president, chief investment officer of matrix advises and the fast money as well, thank you very much. let me begin i suppose it was in some sense predictable after how bad the fourth quarter was and how dreadful december was that we would have a rally, but did anyone really count on a rally like this over the first two months of the year >> you go back to the tapes in december we actually were looking for a very good 2019 and thought the rebound would be a lot quicker than anybody anticipated if you have a selloff like you had in the fourth quarter and it's not economic-based and we didn't think it was economic based, you can have a pretty good rebound the real question is where do we go from he

bob pisani starts us off tonight from. >> what happened to our rally? yesterday at the high point thej s&p 500 wast about 2% away from its record buhigh. global growth fears have swooped right back in. remember the bold narrative, the feral reserve and the central backs.round the world, they the tariffs are going to go away. the chinese willtimulate their way out of the slowdown. and the europeans, well, the data is not going to get any worse. here's what's going on. we do have a much more patient fed and central banks around the fed but that's not priced the president has made it clear, though, maybe immediate reduction in riffs, that's a problem. overnight we got difficulties monica lewins dismal manufactur. here in the u.s. we're continuing to see our own bond yields move to the downside. most big questions in the s&p 0 get 40% of their revenues from businesses overseas and that's why thislobal growth equation is such a big deal. so this weak global economic narrative stays with us.hi ats level it means stocks are veryco pricey. uple that with lower

bob pisani is new york stock exchange >> boeing helped fuel a rally in the dow and the s&p. we're above that 2815 level where we have failed several times, five times in the last six months this is a very positive if we close here in earnings the first companies with quarters ending in february are coming out mixed results. bro broadcom had a slow down in china. we're sitting at a historic high for broadcom oracle, it was down earlier on but now it's positive. just shy of historic high. adobe revenue guidance on the weak side. what does this mean? after the fourth quarter numbers came out earnings were cut fast and heavy three months ago particularly for tech. too early to tell but looks like any earnings cuts would be more modest micron and fedex next week back to yo back to you. >> you say these are names to watch for whether we'll see that come through or not for the first quarter. >> right now we're just on the cusp of being negative for the first quarter. right now we're down 1%. i think the numbers next week depending on micron and fedex could turn us into positive ter

bob pisani is there as he often is at the nyse to explain.hy so important, robert >> we're trying to break out of this range for five months now. not doing it today trying to break out of the 2800 range. look at this i've been circling these numbers for the last five days failed five times in the last six months right where we are now banks, tech and energy stocks all cyclicals, they continue to lead and in fact, they're doing so today this is continuing the pattern since the december 24th bottom we've seen strengthen the cyclicals and the communication services and energy. good for the global economy. defense sectors like health care and utilities and consumer staples, they're up but they've gained less than half of the cyclicals. after the weak china industrial production numbers, expect a lot more stimulus out of china adobe and oracle the first large companies to record first quarter earnings if we get decent guidance from them, that's important the chances that the first quarter will see negative earnings growth for the s&p 500 as a whol

and bob pisani here as well. bob, i first want to start with you. the british pound rallied a lot last night came off that a little bit but how much are u.s. and international markets hanging on the outcome? >> the street wants a new referendum i don't know how likely that will be. >> a new referendum? >> the street believes if you get -- >> say no? >> the vote will be to stay and that's what they want. this is too disruptive everyone wants business where it is they don't want businesses move around and cross border difficulties, just status quo. i don't know how likely that is, but yes, it's very important and i can tell you the s.e.c., we had the head of the s.e.c. on with you clayton expressed his concern about the disrupted nature of brexit on u.s. corporations. >> bullish on uk equities. brexit is going to happen or not? >> bullish almost regardless of the outcome of brexit. it sounds a little bit strange reality is that if you look at uk markets, there's really nothing to do with the uk economy. if you have, let's say, a good deal, if you are

that ipo is where we begin this morning with bob pisani at post 8. bob?the important thing here, we are getting close, really getting close. let's get to the man with the answers. patty, when is it happening? >> getting very close. fine tuning the price. it is a little above $5 on the range. we have plenty of volume very close all systems go >> how do you decide when you cut it off you're talking to the desk at goldman, you're trying to figure out the right price. when do you say enough, the book is closed. how do you make that decision? >> when the price pairs off with buyers and sellers and comfortable with both sides of the market, applying our technology, feel comfortable desk at goldman is comfortable all the asset managers and brokers are comfortable, almost to that point now. >> this is a die that maynamic people are like we're ready and another bid comes in not only apply technology but glen and mike, we make sure everybody has a chance for the print. full transparency on price and volume we're very close >> i heard people yelling out a short whil

>> the swoon started around noon and bob pisani tracking the action from the new york stock exchange bob? >> reporter: this is the kind of action that indicates market exhaustion at least for the moment here. a big rally partly on trade talk hopes and more likely and the stocks are pausing on this news here trade-related groups lyiike technology are weaker and names not associated with trade like retail selling off today with health care which is also not generally trade-related. as are are airliirlines, the seh straight day the transportation index is down. so the big issue is how much farther can you push the markets just this fed being patient and the china trade deal global growth still weak, strong dollars also an issue and remember something, the sectors with the biggest downward earnings are energy, materials and technology energy is down due to the decline in oil prices. that's been reversing recently but materials and technology all related to the trade issue the key right now to stop the downward earnings revision trends that's what would get the market going up again and fo

bob pisani and leslie pickard here with us first one up is elon musk, lawyers are firing back at the s.e.c. saying that those february 19 tweets did not violate the earlier settlement agreement. they say regulators are broadly overreaching an infringing on his first amendment rights by seeking to hold him in contempt of court >> i think my favorite line in that filing was when they said that it was just shorthand gloss from prior disclosures, somebody that already knew. so it was fine >> but the issue is not so much the contents of the tweet. it is this idea of are all of his tweets supposed to be vetted by the board before they are sent out or is it only the tweets which they are -- supposed to be only the ones with material information. and tesla is arguing this was not material >> so the deal was with the s.e.c., he would have to go to tesla if he tweeted out something that had any material information. the problem is lawyers seem to be asserting that he is the guy that terms what is material information or not and there is something wrong with that whole scenario >> is this a bad

the stock soared in its trading debut closing up 32% bob pisani is down at the nyse with more on this. hey, bob. >> it certainly was a day of denim, melissa it looked like a scene from woodstock down here. the initial price was 14 to 16 wait a minute, it priced at 17 and opened at 22.22. that's a 30% pop and it pretty much stayed there all day. a lot of happy insiders with this one plenty of pent-up demand because the ipo market was closed for four months. a strong start to the year for stocks, up 12% with the s&p. you've got an iconic brand and you have most people consider a reasonable valuation the ceo insists in fact their valuation was justifiable. >> i believe this is sustainable for the long term. maybe not double digits forever, but we've got clear runway for growth across the categories we're competing in we're building share in our core categories and expanding the new categories last fiscal year when we finished the year, our growth was really broad based if you looked at it in the categories where we competed, we grew every single category >> demand has been strong. in fac

bob pisani he is mentioning the high multiple stocks.in two stocks that could be argued are value stocks in f-a-a-n-g. >> facebook and alphabet right. facebook as we know has had the idiosyncratic, not totally just to them actually, but i think it's still attractive. it's at a very nice bounce from the bottom i think alphabet is more traf . attractive i don't know why it hasn't gotten more of a lift from lyft and all the focus on autonomous driving and the rest of the business is fantastic. it's an extraordinary cash flow generator. my only beef with them is the lack of any significant buyback. >> what happens when the market is up? you were just scorching high multiple stocks. >> i was but without growth that's why i want amazon google is interesting. they have multiple levers to pull >> yeah. >> levers, that's what the british say. amazon is the play here. i understand they're high multiple nobody carried about amazon's pe for a couple years a couple incidents we get worried about it they have levers they can pull as well. >> i'm sayin

plants to $13 billion and add 600 manufacturing jobs let's drill down on today's markets with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange looking at key levels here, bob. >> we are waiting for a break up not happening. the s&p is still having trouble breaking out of the 2,800 range. now we have failed five times in the last six months right where we are right now all five of the six -- all five months last two months here. the good news banks, teching with energy stocks, all cyclicals continue to lead this continues the pattern we've seen since the december 24th bottom we have straen strength in sectors effect, industrials, communications services and energy the market leaders the defensive sectors like health care, utilities consumer staple are also up but gained less than half that of the cyclicals. after the weak china industrial production numbers which we saw overnight, we can expect more stimulus out of china. maybe that helps stabilize our earnings picture kelly tonight adobe and oracle will be the first large companies reporting first quarter earnings their quarter ends in february

bob pisani's at the new york stock exchange with a look at that for us. hey, bob. >> hello, kelly. let's call this one a day of consolidation. well deserved after a significant breakout for the s&p 500. last week it broke to its highest level since october. it's now less than 4% from an historic high. also i think importantly, the vix is sitting near its lowest levels since october and bond yields are near the lows for the year. of course, reits and, cough uof reits and utilities breaking out last week. can it keep going? central banks have their banks, that's the most important thing. and there are declining fears of deflation and many think recession is not likely in 2020. fed's in stimulus mode and europe is even on six-month highs and outperforming the u.s. but the long-awaited economic slowdown in europe may at least be reaching a bottom that's a big hope. kelly, i'll tell you what i'm very happy about, we are up today. normally, the week after quadruple witching is traditionally a down week, just even being up six points today i think is a bit of a victory for the bulls. kell

let's drill into this with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange still climbing a wall of worry here. >> let's put up the s&p 500 and reiterate what's going on here the bloomberg story essentially says the chinese want assurances that the tariffs are going to be lifted if they make the trade deal, and obviously that's a sticky point in the negotiations, so it tells me they're getting very close to making a deal here there's a few sticking points. i wouldn't put too much in it. you see the market's already bouncing right here. kelly, if you want to figure out where the markets might be going, try watching what a bunch of fund managers are doing and do the opposite. every month, bank of america merrill lynch conducts a survey of global fund managers, widely watched on the street. trade community loves watching their long and short positions because they're contrarian indicators take a look. for nearly three months, the market's been going up but fund managers have turned defensive, long cash, long reits, utilities, health care, all defensive stuff. they are short equities in general. a

bob pisani for us. eight days in a row. are you concerned about that >> i look at the transports and they're up 13 spoken.5% this ye. i look at airlines and they're trading again back to -- we're going to a recession i look at delta, that's a recession multiple for the best airline at a time i don't think that's going on. if you look at airlines the last couple of years action they're incredible trading stocks. you've had about nine trading ranges up or down of 20% or more in delta i'd take a look at the stock at the bottom of the range. >> to buy. >> to buy, yeah. >> they just reaffirmed today, $6 to $7 a share obviously airlines trade different multiples than other industries, but still -- i'm long delta, i like it here. >> it's not like the rails have done bad it's basically been an airline-led decline, but no one is worried about just the sheer weakness in transports and what the tell is there? >> you made a good point, scott, earlier in the show. you said digestion or pulling forward some of the gains that we might hav

for "nightly business report," i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >>> now to trade and a few new developments that could beng world's two largest economies within striking distance of a deal afteronths hot and cold discussions. kayla tausche has the details. >> reporter: a potential detante could be close according to three sources close to the situation. the two sides continue to negotiate via video conference to reach an agreement on outstanding issues ahead of a planned summit for late march at the president's south florida resort i the deal a looks now would see china buy more than a trillion dollars inu. goods over six years. china will have a n law for intellectual properties. there would be broad agreement and several macro economic buckets and anee agreement to k talking. it's through that dialogue that the u.s. would try to hold china accountable andntf presidei doesn't follow through then the u.s. could re-introduce sanctions without retaliation. president trump is rushing a deal that's not harsh enough after walking away from talks t week.rth korea l >> i think

bob pisani has the latest on those moves. hey, bob. >> reporter: and the global growth worries are still a concern for the stock market another leg when we dropped below 2800 on the s&p, but up and above that several times the last few weeks, that's a technical sign market leaders for this quarter, semi conductors, energy stocks were all lagging today boeing popped at 2:00 p.m., word they're rolling out a fix for the 737 max jets that helped out the dow a little bit. no headlines on trade from robert lighthizer. theresa may may step down if a brexit vote it delivered before close. we need bond yields to stop falling and global growth data to get better. wilf, the market came off its lows once the drop stopped. >> thank you so much see you later in the hour. >>> former apple ceo john sculley weighs in and why apple could double down on health care. >>> insurer centene buying rival wellcare for $15 billion as the debate over the future of obamacare heats up in washington. >>> reach out to the show on twitter, facebook or send us

bob pisani is the new york >> we're about to wrap up the first quarter and overall investors should very pleased with their investment portfolios. even with all this hand wringing about lower bond yields, it's not just the s&p 500 which, by the way, is b having theest quarter since 2009, everything is up. and i mean everything. the stock market, the bond market, russell 20, the small cap index is up 12%. bonds are doi great. high-yield bond etfs are up 6%. corporate bondetfs are up . treasuries are up more than and that doesn't include the dividend. what does it all mean? it means i you have portfolio with a 60/40 stock/bond sit u have about 9% this quarter. that's very impressive gains for a bancedportfolio. and you've been a winner even if you invest by sector. all 11 sectors are up on the quarter. technology stocks are the big gainers but energy stocks are also strong asil rallied. industrial stocks, which were dramatically oversoldt the end of the fourth quarter thanks to these global growth and trade y concerns, tnap back. they're up 15%. it's not bad for three months' work. for "ni

bob pisani has more. the markets whipsawed on a couple of conflicting headlines about u.s./china trade talks. the dow jones industrial average snapped a four-day win streak. stocks rallied early ahead of tomorrow's federal reserve meeting per the usual pattern. the fed iedelf has conduct studies on what is called the fed drip. it's the tendency for stocks to hours igher in the 24 preceding a fed announcement. the fed has found this phen benon puzzling it does exist. but the s&p 500 passed below the day's prior low late in the day and we saw heavy selling prsure pick up and the rally fizzled out by the close. stocks have held up very well recently. crude oil prices are hovering near four-month highs and there's definitely hopes for a deal. we're getting very close to the fina stages of negotiations. recent headlines suggest the u.s. and china are inery tense negotiations. china wants assurances that the tariffs will be eli part of the deal and that's certainly a sticking point. u.s. treasurely secretary steve mnuchin still scheduled to go to beijing. china's vice premier is

let's get to bob pisani. >> we're having the same problem we have been having really for the last six sessions that's the market leadership is petering out and the s&p, for example, is stalling around that 2800 level take a look here what has led us from the market bottom on december 24th? banks? semiconductors, home builders have been strong, energy stocks, industrials, and, again you see here today, flattish to slightly down for those leadership groups that's the problem the market is stalling out in general. transports today, either side of positive or negative, overall down another 20 points in the transports but you see some of the american airlines on the up side, weak recently, the railroads stronger in outperforming, down today overall, there has been a lot of concerns we spent the last two days talking about the transports topping out. they rolled over a little earlier than some of the other ones truckers are down 7% this is the last couple of weeks. airlines are down 4% the railroads as i mentioned holding up better, only down 1%. people are concerned this might be presaging

out, netflix the big threat that investors aren't taking seriously enough >>> but we begin with bob pisanimarkets hey, bob. >> hello, kelly. we're searching for direction, but there are several movers out

out, netflix the big threat that investors aren't taking seriously enough >>> but we begin with bob pisani with today's markets hey, bob. >> hello, kelly. we're searching for direction, but there are several movers out there, including gamestop, up almost 2%. it's been in the news recently, gamestop is one of those buy-back monsters, in the last few years, and i mean a lot. gamestop has cut shares outstanding by 38% since 2010. this new buyback would reduce shares by an additional 25% if fully complemented wow. elsewhere, we're kind of in groundhog day, stalling out around 2800 on the s&p good after rallying since december, and the keep leadership groups have stalled out look here, semiconductors have been flat in the last seven days the small cap rutle 2000 is down 1%, another key group, as are the banks and the industrials, which often moved on trade news, but they haven't moved at all as word of a potential deal finally leaked out the one part of the world that is move is china shane high up against overnight at the chinese government has announced wave after wave of tax cuts and stimul

bob pisani, kate rogers bob?faemphasizing this buyers coming in the volume on the light side look at the market leadership groups, russell 2000, for example. you look at the transports doing well recently gently starting to roll over. transports down seven days in a row. sector leadership groups like bank stocks which were up 20%, 21%, in kind of gently overing today and not big selling but again no real interest in buying, just moving to the downside semiconductors with a great run over all and topped out. my point here is we need more of a catalyst i think the trade talk story exhausted itself at this point on a day of major comments from the president essentially even the trade names moved to the downside and health care, as well not normally traded and it is why i'm telling you about exhaustion individual stocks, amd, great stock run for the year down today boeing, industrials, down today and even some of the health care names. back to you. >> thank you let's check on what drove the selling at the nasdaq. kat

2018 in the gutter, the emerging markets etf eem rallying 11% this year, nearly out of correction bob pisani the etf edge crew at the new york exchange, tell us how to play it. hey, bob. >> hello, scotty happy monday emerging markets have mostly underperformed the u.s. for the last several years, but this year, led by china, emerging markets are showing some signs of life. china is the best performing large country this year with the shanghai up over 20%, emerging market etfs matching the s&p's roughly 12% gains. so what's the best way to play the emerging market rally? todd rosenbluth is head of mute yul fund research and tom, let me start with you. looking at emerging market etfs china dominates everything it's 30% of the eem. is it safe to place a bet on china now, given their economic concerns >> well, emerging markets have been unloved, as you say, for the last five years, bob, but recently it's been all about china. and china does make up a big part of emerging markets today the idea is if you want to play all of emerging markets or if you want to be specific on china, and there are a

." >>> let's begin with the two big ipo stories of the day bob pisani looking at he levi back in the blic market and leslie picker with the latest on lyft's ipo roadshow. bob? >> it started here $14 to $16 price is $17 opens at $22.22. that's a pop the timing was just absolutely perfect. plenty of pent-up demand because the market closed for four months strong start to the year for stocks reasonable valuation nice pop demand's been strong if you trade 100% of the volume on the first day, strong and hour to go at 110% of the volume don't expect this to happen with everybody else there's a ton of stuff out there. 234 point ipos $700 billion valuation they could seek to raise up to $100 billion that's a record. who's going to buy all of this stuff? will there be a revolt when they put the prices too high? waiting in the wings you know uber, weworks, airbnb and bet they're looking to put the valuations even higher back to you. >> bob, thank you very much for that we'll talk more about that particular ipo with the new york stock exchange president stacey cunningham coming up turning now to

. >> thank you >> boeing help iing the dow boue back this hour let's duoto bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. hey, bob >> thehello there. lower bond yield and growth are still the main concerns out there. they took a leg down around 11:30 eastern time that's when we dropped below this 2800 level. they've been lagging on the day. that's not a lot of surprise there. there is some sus spence left in the day. no head lalines from robert lighthizer and steve mnuchin they should be on their way to china soon we're waiting to hear what they have to say. there's also vague reports that may could be willing to step down if a brexit vote is delivered. things could change before the close. however, the main motif is still if place for stocks to really break out. we need bond yields to stop polling and global growth day to get better right now, we're not getting either one >> thank you very much coming up, a bold call from president trump's fed pick sends bond yields down did you fear an economic slowdown and we'll take a closer look at one area of the market that will benefit as resat fa

bob pisani breaks it down from the new york stock exchange. b, stocks, bonds, everything, up in value. >> this does not happen very often. so pause for a minute and say hallelujah it's been a simple story the last couple of weeks when bond yields are down, in trouble and flat, stable exactly what's happening today we're approaching the end of the quarter. a little bit of profit taking today. see the end of the quarter, the big winners, the utilities are a little weaker. semiconductors are down and services, all big winners for the month and the quarter. big weakness today but not a lot. you heard there from tyler, the average investor, he remains big win, or she, winner for the quarter. up 12, 2009, 2012, depending on what the numbers are at the moment everything here's a typical portfolio i look at. along with the s&p 500 but all the bond funds are doing great. if you own a high yield bond fund, 10% of your portfolio. up 6%. a corporate bond fund, maybe 15% of your portfolio. up 5%. the deal in treasuries, another 15%. up 2%. and this doesn't

joining us, bob pisani, and foundation capital general partner steve osala, early investor in uber ande great ipo sale is about to begin, whether it is a fire sale or not, that's the big question more than 220 companies seeking to be public in 2019 wow. half that are unicorns with values over a billion dollars. the market capitalization of all companies together exceeds $700 billion. but the float, the amount they're selling to the public, likely exceeds $100 billion. that will break any record we've ever seen in terms of dollar volume in a single year, bigger than 1999 and 2000 that was years that represented the height of the dot com ipo boom big names include uber, wework, lyft the latest round, last round of funding valued the company at $15 billion, but reuters reported they would seek to up that, seek a market cap of over 20 billion we'll see if they get that who is going to buy this stuff at high prices that's the issue there are three choices for the companies. one, stay private. two, go public, or three, to merge. merger was the most popular exit strategy in a recent bdo surve

and boeing are leading the dow higher the s&p having the best start since 2012 joining us onset, bob pisani8 to 1 advancing declining stocks at the open one of the strongest opens in a while. it hasn't dropped at all stock traders get obsessed with different themes for the past week it has been a two note beat. global growth concerns and treasury yields and they're related. the dividing line is among those that think 2020 recession fears are real and those that think they're overblown. that's what matters. why are we rallying today? stock traders have been obsessed with lower rates with the inversion of three month and ten year treasury especially important to them, so we are being helped by higher yields. the big note overnight that everybody is talking about was goldman, sachs which noted a good part of the inversion could be explained by international investors coming into the u.s. bond market. that ownership of treasuries shifted to more global investors, and their buying of our treasury speaks to global growth concerns. goldman concluded from their note curve in version signal could be

bob pisani is on the floor of the new york stock exchange. gan is at a levis star in times square we'll begin with you, bob, in the pre-trading action what can we glean so far >> reporter: we have the first indications right now, and it is $20 to $21 by the way, we're not just on the floor, in the booth. only cnbc is in the booth with you. 20 to 21, remember what the talk was here their 14 to $16 was the price talk it priced at $17, and the indications are now 20 to 21 you take the mid-point, 20.50, that's almost 40% higher than the mid-point of the price talk just a couple of days ago. that gives you an indication of the pent-up demand the pent-up demand because the market had been closed for four months, there would be pent-up demand because the stock market is doing well, ipo trading well, stocks that recently ipo'd generally doing well pat murphy, a veteran trader down here on the floor, running the book here. pat, how is it looking how is the demand? >> such an iconic brand. gts is so proud to represent levi, first common stock ipo on the

start to a year in nearly 30 years, and a rally to kick off march today joining us now is our own bob pisaniing back to 1991, right, the last time we had such a good two-month start to a year. >> yeah. >> also was coming off, you know, a 20% drop the year before. >> yeah. >> so i guess some things are right. >> very remarkable up 7.9% in january and 3% in february these are like two standard deviations away from like the normal moves that we've seen so it's a little unusual. the good news is that there's also the people crunching numbers, and when you get these kinds of moves up generally the next couple of months are positive historically. these are outside moves. obviously the third quarter is going to be up i don't know if march, is and generally things look pretty good right now the thing that i'm worried about now, we're over 2800, mike, talking about that this morning in the meeting haven't been able to close over 2800, but just at this number, the market is really expensive, so remember all these guys who are out. i don't know if gollow is at zero. >> 16.5 times, it's not expensive. >

bob pisani to the bond pits as well and rick santelli in chicago good morning, rick >> good morning,ould have to say that treasury yields and even global yields are firming a bit off recent low ranges. but the firming is very small, look at one week of two year, they're currently up a basis point at 246 to the other end of the curve, 30-year bonds up two basis points 304. but, part of the rise, obviously, is getting ready for the first of two days of fed meetings and, of course, tomorrow most likely a no action, but everybody will be reading the statement. but the eu is considering offering the uk an extension there will be a lot of back and forth brexit news, but this did seem to firm up our treasuries, but also if you look at what is going on in the two-day of gilts firmed up there as well, two-day of bunds firmed up a bit, trading 11 basis points, doesn't sound like a lot but two percentages as we move from 6 or 7 basis points we do know that high yield leverage loans, all these are making big stories as to are we going to have another big mogul in the credit markets. i would say

sector as i bring in bob pisani, tech leads the charge. energy also doing very well.1 sectors in the green, bob we shouldn't complain. >> we have broken through key resistance at 2815 to 2820 been waiting for this for a while. highest levels since october second important thing, the vix has collapsed again. we have got a 12 handle on it. essentially the lows for the year this means that -- >> bother you? >> it is a good sign in that companies have targeted volatility to add more exposure when the volatility is this low. we have a big rebalancing on the s&p 500. a number of companies reducing the shares outstanding including pfizer, wells fargo, this goes to the whole debate about share count reduction and buyback. >> thank you there goes the bell. we're up half a percent on the s&p for the day. up more than this on the nasdaq. dow's also half .5%. russell slipped into the close a very strong session and a very strong week. sara, back to you. ♪ >>> very strong week welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me in a moment along with mike santoli,

and leading our coverage is bob pisani at the nyse bob? >> tyler, we had boeing cutting its losses in half essentially and that's why the dow has rallied here and look at boeing, you could see some of the suppliers that boeing has. united technologies, one of them earlier on but most of the suppliers also well off their lows united tech, as you can see, has gone positive. but elsewhere, it's one of the best days we have seen in weeks down here. the market internals, how it trades internally, looking especially strong 4-1 advancing to declining stocks right now. advancing volume is 83% of all the volume that's a really big day on the upside people are buying more stocks advancing than declining new highs modestly expanding close to 100 but if you look carefully, low rates creating opportunities in utilities and real estate investment trusts. most of the new high lists a smattering of wreaths. avalon bay, mid america and american tower, which is now a wreath by the way, and of course, the story here is when interest rates drop dramatically,

in fact, the s&p having its best start to the year since 1991 we want do get to bob pisani for more onhis. >> we are up 12% for the year. best start in a long, long time and obvious investors are betting on cyclicals and maybe a little bit on global growth. take a look at the winners so far in 2019 an it's banks, semiconductors, industrials and energy all outperforming three of the four are global players, semiconductors and industrials and energy and not just a play on cyclicals but global, as well. when's lagging defensive names. going after companies that have the greatest growth potential although parts of health care do have growth potential and there's the laggards for you trying to get over 2800 in the s&p. but take a look at the last couple of months here. january up 7.9%. february up 3% these are much better than typical performances in january and february march is also usually an up month and nothing like these kinds of numbers finally, how far are we from historic highs thank you for asking a three points that's a surprise. russell 2000 lagging a bit so far this year. back

let's get to bob pisani. >> the old cramer was find by me not even on the advance/decline line a split so you want to watch the leadership groups for signs of faltering or breakouts let's look at the leadership groups what led in 2019 semiconductors, number one stalled out. banks, up 20%. kind of stalled out. industrials, flattish. energy, flattish the russell 2000, it basically stalled out 6 or 7 days ago, below is 200-day moving average. leadership group, there they are, stalled out 5, 6, 7 days ago. that's the problem we can't get the market really moving forward because we got a lot of issues i think the real action is in china. you see big political meetings going on in china now. and we got some moves up this is the best performing stock mark net tet in the world, the shanghai, up again, shenzhen up, hang seng up fractionally. very interesting what is coming out of the big political meeting. they're talking about slower growth and a lot more stimulus over there the gdp is now 6 to 6.5% it was 6.6% in 2018. they're talking about a lot more tax cuts again and even more infrastructu

carl, back to you. >> bob, thanks bob pisani busy morning in the bond pits. on the way rick santelli. >> indeed. you've been talking about i'll have more pieces on it today, but there is definitely some call it a disconnect between what is going on in treasuries and what is going on in other areas like equities. i think the answer lies in more of the global picture. to that end, bund yields, everything seems to be moving together look at the two day of 30s long end leading the charge, led the rates up, leading rates down closed under 3%, that's first time in 13 sessions. last time we closed under 3% was 20th of february let's open the chart up to the 19th you see it there ten years, look at two day of 10s, you know, we settle at a level yesterday, right around 2.60, that was the second lowest yield close of the year. you see open the year to date chart, what makes that an interesting chart is not only is it second lowest yield close, see that first couple of days of trading, the lowest of 2.55. if we take that out, zoom, zoom, zoom, lowest close since january

jay clayton joins me along with bob pisani who knows all about market structure bob, kick it off here. >> jay is here giving a lecture at fordham university on market structure jay, i want to start with you. buy backs. a lot of discussions about buy backs. some proposals in congress that perhaps limit tax benefits from buy backs. has the sec looked at this at all? how do you view the roll of buy backs in the market and are they a help to the marketplace >> let's separate those two into what buy backs are used for and then the regulation of market activity around buy backs. buy backs are a capital allocation tool. a tool that board of directors, managers use to allocate capital. if capital should be returned to shareholders oftentimes a buy back is the most efficient way to do that once they choose to do a buy back it's our job that buy back and other market activities are done fairly and we have rules around how people can conduct buy backs to ensure there's not manipulation >> there's nothing wrong per se. there's an implication it hurts the economy, benefits rich people there's a re

and with that, to bob pisani with more on the floor of what's moving this morning. >> nice up day twoter right now. europe has been better, not just today, but really all week i think that's a nice help to our markets. and second, we got trade deficit numbers that were much better than expected at 8:30 eastern time, china probably buying more soybeans from us that moved the futures up as well take a look at the sectors and the leadership is the same as it has been for a while now we're talking about semiconductors what are we up has to be up 20% or so opened on the up side early on down a little bit now. retail has done well energy stocks, oil over $60. that's been a leader banks have not been a leader they were up until the beginning of march and all the concerns about interest rates they're not. we have noted often in the last week about how horrible retail -- the regional banks are, just take a look, all down double digits in the month of march. most are still up on the year. we had a great january and february overall but these -- the declines, particularly the short-term rates, k

. >> bob pisani on the floor now, he's got more on what's moving this morning bob? the highs, happy monday, everybody. 3 to 1 advancing to declining stocks another great start to the day dollar is moving up. transports are up. transports were down six dmazayn a row. a positive day for the transports still trade related. look at the dow movers, for example. i don't normally put them up it is all trade names. caterpillar, dow dupont, boeing, intel, 25% of the revenues from china, coke and the defensive names like mcdonald's, all kind of flattish. it is trades but that's good enough don't -- look at the numbers now. i pointed this out at the end of last week, we're very close to historic highs again right now 2.5% from an historic high on the dow industrials. under 4% for the s&p nasdaq is 6% russell 2000 is 8.5% now based on the gains today keep an eye on that. couple hundred points away from the dow on new highs it is a global rally nice move up in china overnight. nice move up in the stocks, 600. so europe is at a five month high japan is at a three-month high we're

. >> thank you very much, morgan let's bring in bob pisani for more on ge morgan will stick around as well bob, what levers are left for mr. culp to pull >> reporter: that's a good question you know, the bulk is on ge, tyler. always has been, we have these fabulous assets that we want to sell and the market doesn't fully appreciate the value of our assets because the market does not know how to value conglomerates. jeff used to complain about this for many, many years and he does have a point the bear case is, well, wait a minute, you've got yourself into a terrible dilemma with the debt you've got including ridiculous pension obligations and essentially, you're slowly having to sell off the pieces of the company. sometimes, at fire sale prices and this seems to be what tusa is saying here with the thing and the whole thing that's going on with ge financial which has been a problem for many years so it depends on what side of the equation you're on but it gets tougher and tougher to sell off all these assets. >> is there risk to the pension? he asks with a personal stake involved >> w

bob pisani with more on the global slowdown and how stocks react. bob? >> hi, kelly there's two teems today. after a five-day losing streak we are finally getting a bit of an oversold bounce that's what i call it. particularly important to see the russell 2000, the banks, and the transportation stocks up today. these sectors especially weak since the beginning of the month with the transports down nearly 5% down 11 days in a row and see if we can break that today. second slowing global growth is weighing on earnings look at the shocking numbers there's a story clearly indicated s&p 500 companies with more than half the earnings overseas with greater downward earnings revisions so look here q1 earnings expected down 3.4% in the first quarter those with more than 50% of the sales inside the u.s. are seeing earnings growth. small but 1% positive those with more than 50% of their sales outside the u.s. are seeing earnings down more than 11%. that is an enormous difference and it show what is a problem slowing growth in china and europe is posing for the u.s.

whys and wherefores as "power lunch" begins right now we do begin this hour with the fading rally bob pisani tracks the action from the new york stock exchange floor. hi, bob. >> hello, old friend stocks up, well off the high not a lot of clear catalysts today. most important development early on was a pause in the recent treasury rally yields mostly up today after dropping 3 of the last 4 days. strong demand for two year paper at the auction this afternoon. stocks lower since then and bank stocks here outperforming all throughout the day economic data today, kind of crummy, consumer confidence missed and way below expectations dr hor mon and all those stocks trading to the downside. oil near $60 close to the high of the year and energy stocks are a bright spot big outperformer this year overall and the ipo break continues. lyft reportedly seek price shares above the targeted range of 62 to 68. wait a minute, that implies a valuation north of $23 billion look here at this list way above the last funding these ipo people starting to get a little greedy. back to you. >> the ipoetf having best

bob pisani on the floor. the dow despite boeing being up to the bond pits, rick santelli joins us from the cme group in chicago. >> good morning, david i look up and see 228, 229 and two-year note yield, let's go through it real quickly. you two-year note yields, april 1st, 2018, lowest level since april of '18 as i go through the curve, let's look at the far end, 30-year bonds. they have taken out their 290 level. now they hover at the lowest levels since january, joining much of the rest of the marize , april, 18, three years, february of 18, five years, january of 18, seven years win, seven year maturities at the lowest yield since december 2017, should they close at current levels. if we look at ten-year and 30-year bonds, january of 2018 let's look at bunds overseas october 1st, 2016, captures the negative zones, they're currently trading at i know the big stories have been coming out about how the inverted curve three months to tens is more of a function of demand for our positive yielding long end inst

about the economic slow down in china the shanghai index has entered into a bull market let's go to bob pisani down at the new york stock exchange. how do you read this >> this is the kind of action, kelly, that indicates overall markets exhaustion we had a big rally partly on trade talk hopes and now that it looks like the trade talks really are showing fruition, stocks are pausing on that tech is weaker with software stocks like sales force down but also transincorporates are down. seven straight days in a row, particularly airlines are weaker also, those health care is down with big pharma like fierz and bristol, hmos are also weak. banks also down. retailers are weak as well after a very strong showing last week. consumers discretionary stocks are mixed. home builders are still strong there. now this is a big issue. how much farther can you push the markets on just the fed being patient story and the china trade deal global growth is still weak and the strong dollar is still also a big issue. now the key to getting into u.s. markets into those historic highs and remember we're only about 3

bankofthewest.com/ev >>> market takes a leg lower midday dow down 350 mike santoli back at post 9 with bob pisanido you think is at play here, guys is it yield curve at work? >> i think yield curve is getting the most attention yield curve says we're focusing on slow growth story, numbers out of the rest of the globe haven't been great, also catching the stock market in a certain field position where we were kind of extended. did we use up any 3 month rally in stocks. >> what happened here, we got mugged by the slower global growth story, that's what happened remember the narrative here, the bull narrative the fed and all of the central banks have our backs that's going to be the biggest help the problem is we have the most dovish fed we could get on wednesday. eeshl the dovish fed is priced in what else are going to go away that was another narrative important. the president said maybe the tariffs will not go away that's a problem then we had the chinese are going to stimulate their way out of their slow down and the your pi -- europeans that's a problem the numbers are not going to be horrible

for more let's get to bob pisani >> yeah. it's a very interesting today, scott. thank you.is having the best day in a month with chips following higher nvidia is a top holding in the sox semiconductor etf. john dava, deutsche banc's head of etf sales chris hemstead join me today we have an m&a story but the earnings for semiconductors have come down dramatically from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. >> i would avoid it. it is an early cycle play. earnings growth estimates coming down 8%. i think that's excessive i would avoid the sector and the play despite the news. >> chris, we had the same problem with fang stocks all the time because in the semiconductor space essentially 7, 8, 10 stocks completely dominate all of the indexes even with the sox far and away 60% of the holdings is 10 stocks right now. today is a good news story it can take the opposite effect like boeing today. what do you do with your clients in you're a big trader in these stocks what do you see? >> we acknowledge the fact there's a concentration risk to the sectors of five, six, ten names makin

. >>> tame for our etf spotlight and bob pisani taking a look at how stocks are trading amid this tough appears the chinese are having just a tough time with trade and tariffs as we are. chinese import and export date a.r.-for february was way below expectations chinese markets are down overnight but the fact is china is among the best performing markets in the world in 2019 the shanghai exchange is up 20% even with today's 4% decline that's twice the performance of the s&p 500 year to date and also outperforming europe as well you can own china through many different etfs, but you've got to be very careful here. they are not all the same. you get different performances four largest china etfs have returns varying from 11% year to date to 28% year to date that's a very, very big difference, so why do you hit such a variance? has to do with where they trade and what is in them. the fxi is the largest china etf out there and it only liz stocks on the hong kong exchange. those are big state-owned enterprises. the embassy china etf is the second largest it lists stocks in hong kong and on m

bob pisani running through the numbers for us. >> well off to the