>> i think bob pisani had it right. the market is dazed and confused and maybe a little schizophrenic on top of it all. the ecomicata is very mixed in the sense the consumerry loo ood, unemployment is very low. at the same time, you have businesses that aren't reinvesting in itself. catal expenditure is low. on the stock market, we have a market that is sold off but it has sold off fromll-time highs that it set a couple weeks ago. even as i the bond mark signaling a recession. i think we've got a rec clearly in our future. i'm not sure it's going to come c quickly or as sharp as the markets arerently predicting right now. but clearly there are a lot of worrying signs on the horizon. on top of it all, it's the middle of august and there's a lot to say this might turn around. >> a lot of headline risk with trade front and ceruer. which innt usually preva prevails, the data or the bond market? >> well, the data ultimately prevails but it's always a question of timing as to when markets ultimately accept the verdict of the

brexit deadline and the pound did fall sharply this morning let's bril down with these bonds with bob pisani. bob, is august over yet? >> let's hope so not only is the volume low it's lived up to its reputation. so we are rallying today but we are rallying into a bit of a news vacuum that's really what's going on. this is strange because bond yields are lower but they are stable. interestingly, bank stocks are up despite the lower yields. economically sensitive transportation stocks which have trended lower, they are also strong the rest of the industrials materials also better. the worst performer of the one month by the way are energy stocks it took nearly a 2% rally in oil to accomplish that bulls cannot wait to get out of august, kelly. they are hopeful for more stable global economic data they are hoping from more help from central bank easing and hopi but the bears have got plenty of ammunition there is a growing list of new lows down here but particularly noteworthy are industrial and material names. 3m, fedex, caterpillar, textron, freeport-mcmoran >> bob pisani, thanks very much. >>

as bob pisani reports, this rally does not have the certainty of some >> reporter: the rally rolls on. stocks ended yterday's gains ater chinese officials s positive tone for u.s./china trade talks. k man for china's ministry of commerce said they are willing to solve it with a calm attitude. it comes three days before the next round of tariffs are slated to go into eect. that happened before theap a opg be stocks were higher throughout the day. trade-heavy industrials like boeing and caterpillar were up. tech names like alibaba were up. these are names withi the cyclical sectors which weredl beaten up this month. on the flip side defensive consumer groupsike utilities, lagging for a change.y were many believe today's rally may be tentave at best. the market is stuck because traders can't figure out what the earnings outlook is for the next six months with the trade uncertainty and economy in europe and china. therein lies the problem. llies like we arein s today feel fragile because nobody knows how the trade wars areo going t end and how it willpo impact cte america's bottom line. f

bob pisani explains what a trade war looks like to s walleet. >> stocks rebounded and also in the sessionanaged to regain a chunk of monday's ste losses, and it was the worst day in 2019, remember, on monday. the markets were a little calmer today, but yesterdes the fut moved in a nearly 5% trading range over a 12-hour period. that is extraordinary and a reminder that the trade wars ould get much nastier very quickly. the central left is that the trade war can encompass a lot more than just tariffs. they can quickly morph into currency wars, for example, which is why the markets had a big problem yesterday. th h markets new lows after the close on monday after the u.s. treesurynated china a currency manipulator, which opens the door for additional retaliatory measures potentlslly. there's the prospect of other types of economic sanctions such as china shutting down u.s. businesses in the region. it is not just a matter of how much is paid in tariffs, it is much more complicated. beyond the numbers there's also psychological effects on in lstor confidencee the prospect of lower capital exp

we begin with the market sell-off and bob pisani at the new york stock exchan >> reporter: the stockket is getting punched in the gut from all angles, including the bond market, which is now flashing warning signs of a possible recession. as it concerns yesterday's tariffs delays maybe isn't the secret sauce i that wirove the markets after all, but the immediate driver of today's weakness was more signs of a global slowdown. overnight china released its industrial production figures for july, which showed industrial output in the world's second largest economy slowed to its weakest groh in 17 years, and germany's second quarter gdp shh rank as well, meaning europe's largest economy is on the verge of falling into recession. growth in the eurozone all slowed down significantly from the first quarter. now, naturally economically sensitive cyclical stocks like financia, retail, energy and tech led the markets lower. banks got beaten up from pressure on bond yields and falling crude prices weighed on energy names like chevron and apache. really everything sold off except for goldnd utili

bob pisani has more. >> reporter: it was another wild day on wall street, the dow plunging almost 600sly ear on before rebounding to end f essentiallt on the day. it was one of the great comebacks of the year. mounting trade tensi heightened fears of a possible global recession, that has put more pressure on central banks including our own federal reserve to keep cutting interest rates to get ahead of a sharper downturn. there were just several aggressive rate cuts announced overnight by central banks, in thailand, new zealand and in hyindia. that'suy yields are plunging across the globe. the yield on the u.s. ten-year treasury note falling to a neary three-year low. as luter rates pressure on bank profits. stocks bounced off the day's lows when the yields on the u.se te came off its lows in the middle of the day. the two traded in tandem allay long. despite the strong rebound in consumer staples and tech stock goes, the more trade sensitive ' industrials d budge much. they under performed today. since the start of august when ditional tariffs were announced they're lagged the broader

bob pisani has been looking at some themes emerging in this market. >> reporter: talk about a wild ridewall street. stocks regained theirto footing y with the dow surging more than 300 points. the s&p 500 bouncing back to right about where it closed last friday. that's a remarkable ride. stocks got a lift as bond yields have risen off of their lows and asin s currency has stabilized, at least for the movement. cyclically, economically sensitive groups like technology and industrials, they led today's gain. they're now all positive for the week. there's two big themes emerging that investors are paying attention to. first, is there a chance for a second trade truce between the united states and china. some say no, some say yes. second, will this brief perio stability in stocks, bonds and china's currency, will that lllast? a lot seems to be riding on the question of a possible recession in 2020. jp morgan was out with a note today saying while the economic data highlights elevated recession risk, the likelihood of a downturn in the next 12 months is still below 50%. but mark zand from mo

bob pisani put together a checklist. >> reporter: bulls can't wait to get out of august.y're hopeful for more stanl global economic data, more help from central bank easing, most importantly no radical downward revisions for the earnings estimates in third a fourth quarter. earnings are the key, and so far other than notable downward revision in energy and materiars, flattish for the s&p 500 remains the buzz word for 2019. that's good enough for the market. but the bears have plenty of. ammuniti trade wars are hurting growth and those earnings, and now lower yields have emerged as the new big worry forey traders. e fretting it is a sign of even more global slowing. this.s the problem with how can you worry about lower yields and at the same time home recentral banks going to lower yields even more? out?o you figure that central banks may not be the help the markets thought they would be. finally, even on an up day there's a growing list of new lows down here, including industrial and material names like 3m and fedex and caterpillar, shreveport mac brand. all of these comp

bob pisani has more on that from the u.s. stock exchange.dfulrter: there are a of other geopolitical outweighing on the global market. hong kong f hong kong is grappling with anti-government protesters storming the airport for the second day in a row. it has taken a toll on the hong kong stock mark, down roughly 14% since start of april raul sestro. macau- resort and casino operator sands china was lowered as well as hong kong airline cafe pacific, now down about 14% for the year.st ins are worried about a longer term conflict between hong kong and beijing. we did see u.s. stocks come off of their highsoday when president donald trump tweeted that china is moving troops to hong kong's borders earlier this afternoon. italy and argentina are coping with populace price, with italy's government teetering on the brink of collapsend argentina coping with the current president's poor performance in the primary ntelection. arian stocks plunged almost 50% on monday, one of the worst declines the world has oten in decades. let's forget about the uk. t

bob pisani has those answers from the floor here for us bob?> and the answer is that it depends on what the president is doing on tariffs and what the federal reserve is doing the president just making comments moments ago, not ready to make a deal on china yet, and that's frankly what's been moving the markets for the last week or so you see semiconductors, trade-related to the downside, retail, a lot of these retailers import from china. they're weak, so there's the clearly trade-related headlines here industrials, also trade-related, and you have a flight to safety in utilities we've been talking about that all week, about that flight to safety move here there's rumors about or stories about huawei out this morning. suppliers to huawei, a lot of these semiconductors are weak. the white house is reported to be holding off on a decision about licenses for the u.s. companies to restart their businesses with huawei these are huawei suppliers you see them all down 3 to 4% or so retailers i mentioned, a lot of them import from china they're all no

this is a mixed up market and i like to think, i'll bring in my buddy, cnbc stocks correspondent bob pisaniink i know a thing or two about this stuff but bob and i were talking last wednesday or something on the floor of the exchange and i realized how little i know about this stuff and how much you know about this stuff, bob. so, please. bring your 29 years of experience to bear to tell my viewers what is going on here. >> well, there are three things moving the stock market. number one is the health of the global economy. that's what the stock market does. it tries to figure out what companies are going to be earning six months to a year down the road so the global economy is really mixed. the u.s. is good, best in the world, but slowing a little bit. europe is flat to down. china is definitely slowing down but still growing. that is a very mixed message overall. the second thing is all this trade and tariff stuff going on. tariffs are bad for the global economy but we don't know if there is going to be a deal with china or not. that is a problem so the market is mixed up about that. fina

kelly back to you. >> thank you now to bob pisani at the nyse. looking at the safety trade, bob. >> it is a sort of commonplace that investors tend to move toward more defensive sectors on days like today. it is true we are seeing some outperformance in the defensive sectors, and on theier not as much by a lot of people think. >> look the at the classic defensive sectors. utilities up 14% the s&p 500 is only up about that much, 12 or 13% even a much larger more important sector like consumer staples, they're only up 16%, maybe a 2% outperformance. it is true certain personal items in the consumer sector are doing much better overall. personal products. consumer staples, storage the res, certain other sectors of the reits sector are doing much better leisure products, restaurants, home builders doing just better than the rest of the market. this is good news. the problem is many sectors are very small reits, for example, utilities, about 3% of the s&p 500 together not really enough to make a big move on the index. it is true consumer staples have

loss on august 5th, got the vix above 22, obviously we're going to turn to our right and talk to bob pisaniprice action in the first half of today. >> i was talking to some of the traders. what would be the pain trade right now? the pain trade is what would cause the greatest number of pain to the greatest number of traders. there has been a buy the dip thing for a while now. the pain trade would be we drop another 5, 600 points on the dow. the 200 mf day on the s&p is 2795 that's a good number to look at. i think the problem is two issues number one, the economic news has not been great we saw the china industrial numbers, the german gdp turn negative, and i think there's some concern president trump doesn't have as much leverage with china as people thought before given the actions yesterday interpreted all sorts of different ways. i saw this as a positive for the markets. other people saw his position is a bit weaker i don't necessarily look at it that way i think those two issues are combining to create a lot of concerns about whether the market is valuing things properly, and you can s

eunice eun will tell us what happen but first bob pisani wkicks offith a recap. >> the markets were in turmoil today. the dow plunging more than 900 points at its lowest tends to bubble over but closed well off of that. the adselloff was b based. everything except gold and utility stocks tumbled 2 to 4%. techs, industrials all closed sharply in the red. even csumer staples which is usually a safe haven play didn't fare well. krogerets 100% of the revenues in the u.s. this tells you that some investorsaking down exposure to the overall market. it makes sense given how pricey arocks are and the risk. right now thets in august are looking an awful lot like they did in early may. would he saw trade talks break down and china retaliated. in fact, the vix, the markets of widely watched fear gauge is back above 20. that's where it was in early may. lls say we are one treat away from a rally, maybe, but the problem is the positions are much firr than three months ago. the bottom line, this is not may. now we have currency isss and possibly other retaliatory easures outside the tariffs and coul

and that is a sign of worrisome growth ahead let's go to bob pisani hi, bob. >> hello, tyler. again, markets roughly tracking bond yields. take a look at a chart we've shown a lot recently the intraday of the ten-year versus the stock market here we saw a program come through as yields dip below 1.5% here we've been trading practically in lock step with those yields today. see the market here with the ten-year yield on the top there in the s&p on the bottom this is an intraday. and pretty much moving in lock step i want to note two weak sectors today. retailers are continuing to get slammed today. macy's gap, l brand, all down another 4% these all of them are down about 20% this month i want to highlight transports common theme here. logistics and trucking like jb hunt and rooyder ryder, all wear today. rough month for transports all down double digits so far and we're just halfway through august back to you. >> thank you very much so with bond yields screaming and trade tensions rise iing, w should investors do with their money? david kelly is chief global strategist with jpm

thanks august has been the rough month for the marks, the s&p down more than 3% what needs to happen bob pisani is looking for the roadmap for the bulls. maybe we needer it to be september. >> that's what i want. the bulls can't wait to get out of august. they're hope for more stable global economic data, number one they're hoping for more help from central bank easing and they're hoping, most importantly, no radical downward revisions. earnings estimates for the third and the fourth quarter earnings are the key here. so far other than notable energy and materials flatish remains the buzz words in 20 fine. but the bear versus plenty of am fix, too trade wars are hurting growth and earnings prospects that are out there. we seen lower yields that's submerge as the new worry overall, traders are freting central banks lowering the yields may not be the help everybody thought it was going to be. that's a real head spinner finally even on an update, have you noticed, there is a growing list of new lows down here, it's getting larger, not smaller. big industrial names, 3m, caterpillar, all a part of t

that's bob pisani on the floor nasdaq down for its sixth straight day uptown to bertha coombs. >> bob is talking about plain vanilla, more like rocky road here the nasdaq on pace for the fifth worst ever point decline it is rare to see a day when you're seeing more than 300 points to the downside off more than 4% the nasdaq composite breaking below the 50 day moving average and biggest drag is apple, very strong volume for apple, more than 150% already. the iphonemaker is not exempt from this next round of tariffs. that weaker yuan is going to make its phones that much more expensive. china, stock is down more than 17% below the 52 week high that's putting it near bear market territory the chip sector is not far behind the semiconductor index is seeing its worst day since january 30 that's when apple warned that sales in china would hit its profits. on semiconductor today, off more than 10%. that's the biggest loser after reporting disappointing revenues and disappointing guidance it is being -- its biggest decline in five years. really no place to hide in tech today. >> thank you. >>

bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange to help us make sense of it. hi, bob b. >> hello, courtney we had quite a rally since the monday bottom. it's pretty amazing. we have closed the gap with the friday close that was 29.32 on friday that's where we are. that's almost 140 points a 5% range in the s&p buying yields have risen off their lows since china currency has stabilized that's why we've got the rally back and so have stocked led by cyclicals like technology, industrials, consumer discretiona discretionary, they're flat for the weak, however, much has been made of the utilities, consume er staples they're all up this month, while the cyclicals like energy and industrials and technology, they're down still even with today. whether the defensive sectors remain strong depend on the global trade issue, but one thing for sure, this whole thing with defensives, it's crowded right now. a lot of investors have piled into utilities, drive iing up te price 15% and these stocks are more expensive now more than 18 times forward earnings much higher than avera

his comments, for example, on friday that xi was an enemy that you just heard bob pisani referencing and that ping is a great leader what are markets supposed to make of that the president said essentially this is who i am, this is who i have always been and this is my negotiating style and it worked for me in my career and this is a president who believes this negotiating style as much of a roller coaster as it can be for those of us following it, he believes it works for him. the president also asked about these phone calls that you're talking about. he suggested there were two phone calls between the chinese and the u.s. side overnight last night. throughout the day today, we've been trying to get more detail or information from the white house about what was in those phone calls. who called who what was committed to, if anything the white house unable to provide any context or additional information the president was asked about that again today here's what he said. >> the vice chairman made the statement that he wants to make a deal that he wants it all to happen that says it th

investors would prefer a 20-year note to a 50 or 100-year bond let's drill down on the markets with bob pisani. >> all the beaten een up sector have been rallying semiconductors, transport, energy no one has much confidence at all this is going to last. the market is stuck because traders can't figure out what the earnings outlook is going to be like for the next six months. earnings are looking flattish for the year up or down a couple percent. that's flattish. not a lot of confidence in the future estimates because of all the uncertainty. first and foremost around the direction of trade and tariffs second around the stability of europe and the asian economies independently of tariffs and finally, what the right central bank policy response should be to weaker growth it's not clear that just cutting rates is the panacea without a meaningful trade deal, we're essentially struck in a trading range. look at 2020 earnings for example. who knows what's going to happen there. we get a trade deal, maybe we can go up 10% in earnings and the markets are going to rally on that. we could have no earning

. >> let's get more on the sell-off bob pisani has mork on the -- bertha comment, and rick santelli is watching the yield curve inversion. wilfred is monitoring how that will impact financials bob, let's start with you. >> of course we're concerned about the yield curve inversion. it's an effect, not a cause. the immediate cause of all this weakness is global economic data that's been weakening. more of that day today german gdp actually down 1.0% after being up slightly in the prior quarter. the market trend leer, there's a bit more than that there's a couple other issues weighing on the markets. there's some though -- nobody doubts that it won't help, but will it help dramatically? and the bigger questioner for the markets to handle. >> thank you very much let's get to bertha coombs , on pace for the worst day since august 5th, though still above the lows of that monday. today we're seeing a broad decline with biotech down just a bit less than tech among the biggest loser, amd, tesla, apple, all of which have potential. you'll he -- biggest customers holding back meantime, 280 near l

the consumer is relatively strong bob pisani telling you about that manufacturing data which is slowing. the fomc not united on the need for a cut. we talked earlier with patrick harker, the federal reserve president and he explained why he thinks the fed ought to stay right where it is now. >> i didn't think the cut was appropriate necessarily, but i went along with it to go aloget back to neutral. my forecast is to hold where we are. i think we run the risk of creating too much leverage in the economy. >> esther george, the kansas city federal reserve president, the host for this meeting. she agreed with harker that she doesn't see a need for a cut she also talked about this issue of how come the u.s. rates are so much lower than other -- so much higher than other countries? and does the u.s. need to come down to the other countries' lower interest rates here's what she said >> i think each central bank is responding to their domestic mandate. in the case of the federal reserve, our mand site to focus on employment and inflation. and i think as long as we keep our eye on that, that's

let's get to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange on more of what is moving the big relief rally. talking about grinches if there was one grinch, it would be the bond market, which seems to have barely responded to the response sentiment on equities >> woor up a little bit and moving in relation -- the market hit the highs around 10:30, and that's when bond yields were hitting their highs for the day. not as perfect as it has been recently i want to point out what kayla said, the toy makers are loving the comment on the tariffs you have apple moving and caterpill caterpillar, but mattel is up, hasbro is up hasbro issued a statement about their appreciation we appreciate the administration listening to our concerns. we believe this will help mitigate the impact on u.s. consumers this holiday season. we're also seeing very heavy volume in cyclical etfs that are tied to trade. so technology, the xlk, financial, xli the industrial, xlf is financial. xli is industrial. consumer discretionary, much heavier than normal volume same with the asian etfs hong kong etf, tremendous volume tod

. >>> and welcome back to the "halftime report" i'm bob miss seen the dollar -- bob pisani you couldtaking a hit on your overseas exposure if you are not hedged how can you make the most out of europe let's break it down, a senior editor, tom, it's back again with the dollar strong this year we didn't pay any attention to currency hedging in etfs for a while now. it's starting to make a difference vanguard up 7% this year the hedged etf, currency hedge up 13%. >> right it makes a big difference, bob as you point out we haven't been paying attention to them for a while. now with the trade wars going on, talking about under valuing the yuan that's going to happen across the board. the dollar continues to be strong in the u.s. if you don't hedge your currency with your overseas investments, you are betting on that local currency why not take out that risk >> why don't people do that? frankly, they bleed money. they haven't attracted a lot of money in years japan did a while ago. have you less volatility with them you are taking out the currency. why aren't people using them in a differe

we'll tell you how we begin with today's big rally out of nowhere bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange >> we're back to where we started just before the fed meeting yesterday. you go and explain that. oh, i'm supposed to. the july ism number was almost perfect for the markets. still showing growth, but just weak enough to keep the belief that additional rate cuts from the fed could be coming. that's what i mean when i say perfect. stocks rose on that report after 10:00 a.m. eastern time. the dollar dropped bond yields have been generally lower. dow and s&p 500 just off their highs for the day. semiconductors and consumer staples have been leading. crude is down 3% and there's particular weakness in oil and gas exploration stocks as cansho gave weaker guidance the whole group is lower today good news and bad news for august the setup is kind of difficult august is the worst month for the dow going back to 1987 according to the stock trader's almanac. and stocks aren't cheap. the s&p is up 20% but earnings are flat that means it's expensive. clarity on global growth and tariffs

let's pick up there with bob pisani who's looking at how earnings estimates are taking a bit hit. bob? >> it's a worry here, kelly. financials have been a bigger loser, that's one. but down 6% for august, as the bond yields are plunging trade concerns weighing on stocks, but particularly on earnings projections in general. industrials, reits and utilities are on the flat side today 2019 earnings, we're looking flattish is my word. up until a couple of weeks ago additional tariffs are beginning to impact estimates. energy, for example, and industrial earnings both very tied to the global economy have been coming down fast in the last couple of weeks here. energy earnings are down 21% for the third quarter. industrials have gone from up 6% a few weeks ago to up 2% today that's a big drop. other sectors have been coming down, including specialty retail, for example, which includes many apparel makers like "l" brands and gap with exposure to china earnings, now the group as a whole expected to be down slightly just a few weeks ago, they were expected to be up nearly 9%. not surprisingl

dom chu is standing by with numbers to watch bob pisani following all of the action at nyc, and steve liesman has a look at how a currency war can play out dom, kick things off for us. >> kelly, as you mentioned we're down 6675 in the dow about two, three minutes ago. this is down by almost 3%. the worst day for the u.s. stock market so far in 2019. obviously trade a big part of that story the outside losses are coming, where there is more exposure to some of the technology names in the marketplace. mainly nasdaq composite is up as you can see 3 1/2 percent overall. let's cycle through to the macropicture to check out some of the notable moves there we are seeing copper and gold prices move in distinctly different directions as you can see over the course of the past year, there's been more of a bid for gold prices. the safety trade continues it used to be an expectation of easing from central banks and now it's parts of the safety trade. meanwhile copper prices continue to go lower. the die vurjance signaling what is happened there. and if you're looking for where the rubber meets th

week are the markets pinning too much of their hopes on getting soothing comments from the fed bob pisani is following from the new york stock exchange. robert >> i think so, tyler lower yields, lower stocks it's been that way the whole month. it's happening again today after three days of higher yields, we're finally getting some skepticism about this recent rally remember, this is all based on hopes. hopes for a stimulus package in germany and china. more progress in trade talks, and the fed sending a dovish signal at jackson hole given the risk, the fact we're only 3% from historic highs, this is a remarkable amount of bullishness and high hopes out there. the bull case short term is pretty simple. it's this. european pmi is going to be out on thursday. the bulls think it may be weaker than expected and that will again prompt speculation of even more aggressive rate cuts from the ecb and maybe a resumption of quantitative easing on friday, fed chair jay powell speaking at jackson hole, and even though the markets are expecting two additional 25-basis point cuts, a vocal minority for cu

let's drill down on these markets with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> it all boils down to confusion and makes it very difficult to form an opinion about stocks as we move into the last four months of the year look what they have to deal with will there be troops going into hong kong or not will there be progress on trade talks or will there not be will the fed aggressively cut rates or will it not and will the global economy be more or less stable by the end of the year? this is a lot of questions so many traders are just pulling back and hoping we remain range bound essentially going into the end of the year. and that's really what we're getting today. range bound. modest gains from consumer names like coca-cola and proctor and gamble flattish in industrials like caterpillar. and no help from exxon and chevron. bulls are seizing on the strong showing for two of the big consumer companies, walmart and alibaba. walmart raised yearly guidance including comp store sales alibaba posted revenue gains of 42%. ebitda gains of 34%. this is a sign the consumer economy is doing b

bob pisani is at the nyse with a runthrough, bob. >> and this is a fairly uniform decline. everything is down about 2.5 to 4% cyclicals exposed to the global economy, the retailers, energy, semis, industrials, maybe communication services stocks are weak overall there's only a very few stocks, so where is the bottom well, just a few short-term indicators the recent closing low for the s&p 500 was 2844 that is the closing low. the 200-day moving is 27 the 95. we're, oh, 50 points away from that right now the immediate cause of the decline, weaker global growth in the form of lower china industrial output and german gdp. that's combining with a couple of other concerns. first that the delaying the tariffs may not necessarily be the magic button that the market hopes it will be but the delay will not necessarily improve the market outlook. finally there are some questions about the limits of effectiveness and other central banks cutting rates that low rates are not having or may not have the same effect as stimulating growth it's a very potent stew. >> and, bob, are you hearin

we've got full team coverage of this dramatic turn of events let's things off with bob pisani live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. hey, bob >> and melissa, we had a tough day here i want to give a sense of what happened last time china devalued its currency. this was about five years ago in august 2015. the last time china devalued its currency was in august 2015. that happened on three consecutive days of devaluations that was beginning on august 11th the market was very different back then. it was a different picture for the overall markets. china's currency was appreciating back then that's a big difference to now the stock market in china was just roaring it was up about 40%. the shanghai composite in the first half of the year through june but then the economy began slowing down and the chinese stock market simply collapsed after june and into early august by august 11th to 13th they started the devaluation. the s&p here didn't react too much we were only down about 1% on the first day of the devaluations but then our markets dropped about 10% a week later. it rallie

bob pisani takes a look at the strange day. >> reporter: stock went for another wild ride with the downging all day. we saw risk actions first on a number of back and-and forth u.s./china trade headlines. as yields fell further to multi-year lows. a member of the european central bank said the ecb was setting the stage for an aggressive rate cut in september, andme co's central bank announced it was cutting interest rates by a quarter point as well. this is just the latest in o stri more than 30 central bank rate cuts this year alone. stocks are clearly continuing to take their cues from the bond market, falling to session lows as soon as the yield on the ten-year u.s. treasury note dipped below 1.5%. but it bouncedack at the yields came off of their lows. one clear bright spot today was the consuckr. walmart s rallied on a solid earnings beat. retail sales rose more than pected in july. alibabae-commerce giant got a big boost from the huge eatsings beat of i own, in another sign the consumer economy is clearly doing better than the industrial economy even over in china. still, there's

bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange. th talk about a tough setup for august.ket sold off today on a string of twreets from president trump signaling more tariffs are coming next month. even before today's move history has notke l kindly on august. it is the worst month for the dow and s&p since 1987. the s&p might be up 20%, but earnings are flat, making stocks lookig expensive now. trade tensions are oiously ratcheting up. there's little cla oty the global growth story in general, and a federal reserve chair jay powell made clear at his press conference yesterday, future rate cuts from the fed is not a one thing that made it easier for the bulls to stay bullish is lower interest rates. the markets are become reliant on central banks to provide a back stop to slower global owth by cuttiates around the world. bulls on wall street are arguing that the u.s. economic data mains strong for the most part. interest rates remain low, and despite powell's reluctance to endorse a seriesf rate cuts yesterday, central banks around the world are in easing mode. so the perc

tausche covering all of the trade angles for us, as she has for months now but let's begin with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange hey, bob >> and tyler, today's declines are very broad based everything, except maybe gold and utilities. let's take a look, down 1.5% to 3.5% technology stocks down, bank stocks down. consumer discretionary down, energy, industrials, all down about the same however, even consumer staples are not faring that well look at the walmarts of the world, costcos of the world, even kroger, i have been pointing out kroger gets 100% of its revenue in the united states even kroger is essentially down about 2% that tells you something it tells you that some investors aren't simply taking down exposure to the market overall, which makes sense given how pricey stocks were going into the month of august. right now, this looks a little like early may i have been saying this all day. trade talks broke down in early may. the u.s. hiked china tariffs, the markets were down big time oil down 16%, the vix was over 20 in early may. that's exactly what's happening today in ear

go confident long-term view from victoria let's focus in on the big stories we're watching today bob pisani has a wrap-up from what wall street has been saying about the economy. rick santelli has the huge moves in the bond market bertha coombs is at the nasdaq seema mody has the latest on the protests in hong kong. bob, let's start with you. >> stock market is moving in lockstep with the ten-year yield. we had a big move in the yields. the s&p against the ten year, this is as close a correlation as you're going to get so the big banks all weak. we're also seeing the regionals weak as well dow movers, in addition to the banks and the industrials, you would think, would be weak we're also seeing some of the big consumer names a little bit on the weak side, so mcdonald's, walmart, and disney, great performer this year. keep an eye on that. that hasn't happened often at the same time. sectors are all trade-related. transports, retails, energy, and industrial wiffle mentioned some of the big strategists commenting citing a bigger hit from the trade war. morgan stanley says the bear is alive and

. >> let's get to bob pisani and get more on what's moving this morning. bob. >> good morning, everybody's modest move to the upside. we're being led higher by global industrials and global technology stocks. these are cyclical stocks. the important thing is there's your energy stocks a little bit weaker, but industrials, banks, consumer staples doing a little bit better mentioned semi conductors also on the upside. yesterday was a teaching moment for the markets and for all of us to be reminded of what a broader trade war would look like not just tariffs but a lot broader than that. take a look at the s&p futures 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. yesterday, the futures moved in a 120-point range. 120 points on the s&p, not the cow. this is probably a three standard deviation move. it's outside of 99.7% of all normal trading patterns. there's the bottom that we hit of course that was when they were declared a currency manipulator. we started moving up after they started stabilizing the yuan earlier in the evening and then they made more positive comments and here we a

now over to bob pisani >> a rally in a vacuum look at energy, banks, retail, metal, all had a big day real estate, even gold, a rally in a vacuum finally much was made of the fact that the yield is now higher than the yield, what do you make about this? this sounds ominous, what it implies is stocks may be a better deal than bonds, as one player said would you rather have a 30-year or s&p with the yield of 1.9%. maybe that played a part in today's rally. there's the closing bell the dow jones industrial average up exactly 1%, 258 points. >>> welcome everyone the highs of the session was -- 260, that equates for the 1%, only one sector was lower there. sara, we mentioned how the rally had been underperformers month to day that's really a clear theme today. >> how about energy, that was the best performer today >> yes, oil has bullish inventory data, industrialing also had a good 1% day again them came off their lows >> up 1.5% for a week as a whole. only down 3% -- but it's on the wednesday on thursday last week, we were up for the week. friday was the tweet storm on the trade. let's s

ylan mui is on the fed eamon javers on the president's recent comments, and bob pisani looks at the other big rally ylan, let's start with you. >> the fed shows three broad reasons, one the slowdown in complicate growth. second, prudent risk mpgt and inflation is still below the fed's 2% target. a couple officials wanted an even they also wanted to maintain optionality in deciding when and whether to cut rates again. y t . >> ylan, thank you >>> eamon? >> reporter: yesterday one tone on taxes today an entirely different tone i think i have an answer to that question what i'm told is before the president came out to talk to reporters, staffers briefed him on just how much traction he comments had gotten on taxes yesterday and the speculation that set off the president didn't want that to get out of control. he said i'm going to put a stop to that and went on the deliberately in order to shut down the speculation that he's about to do some major income or tax effort of any kind really. so that's why he said this, indexes capital gains just a short time ago >> i'm not looking to do indexes.

bob pisani. >> i don't know if you knew this, jim. we are a podcast that's right you can listen to us and who wouldn't want do that? the opening bell hour of "squawk on the street" at cnbc.com/podcast apple podcast, spotify, google, or whatever you want to listen to us. >> people love podcasts. >> i was with a-rod yesterday. >> were you? >> yes. >> podcast is one of the greatest sellers really quite good. i had the fortune to be interviewed by him the man is kind of a double threat man. >> he is he is impressive all right. >> can we watch walmart? let's let that be the tell. >> i was going to ask you? >> walmart was at 107, broke through 106. that's walmart they do lower rates but it may have to raise price as lynn. >> little bit. and what are you focused on on "mad" tonight? >> a company that fell off the cliff is bausch. how about medical marijuana? medical is the able to dose it, gw pharma. i think it's terrific. david, people do not understand the power of trying to solve diabetes in any way, shape, or form tandem is doing a great

rick santelli is tracking the plunge in bond yeels bob pisani is here at the exchange but steve, let's begin with you. >> thanks, wilf. a signal heard around the world as they cut interest rates, that was part of what send bond yields careening downward, eventually taking stocks with them possibly a race to the bottom on rates leer in fact, president trump encouraged the fed to match rate cuts today they've been cutting rates and doing so since at least april and some even earlier than that. the fed knows it can't maintain a rate so far apart, but the problem is if it cuts other central banks could cut even more >> steve liesman, thank you. >>> ten-year bond yields falling to the lowest levels since 2016. 30-year yields closing in on record lows. rick santelli has more. >> if there's any sector or specific part of the markets that should get a fist bump today is this next chart ready to challenge the 210 all time, low close that was established in july of 2016, same month the ten-year notes had the double bottom at 136, but it was avoided we're close to 220 now, really took the pressur

stocks are now taking their cue from the bond market bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange bob. >> it's maddening. been happening all month mixeded market in the middle of the day. stocks continue to move in the direction of bond yield, which has been down today, but we're off our lows moved down after 10:00 a.m. eastern time likely a very important part of that decline the market weakened shortly after the open after the august pmi report showed that manufacturing activity was weak in august, it was below 50 indicating traction. lowest level in ten years, but also the services sector was weaker than anticipated. next major market mover, fed chair jay powell many fear are not going to be signalling an aggressive rate cut psy cycle, although everyone believes at least one other rate cut is coming in september and you can see here that markets have rallied in the middle of it have day, but the rally is now moving sideways slightly down as we have seen the ten-year yield group move again. it's a 1.60 on there and looks flat compared to the two year. >> thank you very much >> so ca

let's get more on this big story on the day of escalation of china trade concerns eamon javers, bob pisani >> reporter: administration official tells me the tweet thread that moved the market earlier today was not exactly a spontaneous affair there were a number of officials in the room with the president while he was composing that tweet. i'm told steven mnuchin along with the acting steve of staff, navarro, the trade adviser and larry kudlow, were among the officials who were in the room with the president even as he was composing that tweet this is the part of the tweet that got everybody's attention announcing the president intends to move forward on september 1st with what he calls a small additional tariff of 10% on the remaining $300 billion of goods and products coming from china into the united states that tweet was carefully gone over by all of those officials during the course of that meeting, i am told, and then the president issued the tweet which caught all of us in the financial markets by surprise. it followed an 11:30 a.m. meeting in which they briefed on what had gone on

now over to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> another day with lower bond yields bringingcks down. banks down oil stocks still down even with oil up this is a theme for the past couple of weeks. we have a rebalancing here at the close including the emerging market talk more about that later the dow down 119 points. not far from the lows of the day. ♪ >>> welcome to the "closing bell." i'm morgan brennan in for sara eisen. >> i'm mike santoli in for wilfred frost. the dow finished with a loss of 125. half a percent s&p 500 down s&p essentially gave back a third of yesterday's bounce from friday's selloff and zigzagging around this range. russell 2000 the laggard for sometime. >> in terms of what actually outperformed today, three sectors in the s&p higher. yuletities, communication services and materials interest rates once again in focus today. we saw stocks slip as yields slipped. that two-year 10-year treasury started to invert further, as well continues to be a focus. joining us now to talk about the market day, kevin o'leary and margi fartel another volatile session ke

dow and s&p up for the third straight day bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange with a look at how things are going >> and it is a broad rally and not just apple very broad rally so you have individual industrial names like boeing, united technology helping, other tech names besides apple, micha microsoft is doing well. walt disney, the energy names. even chevron is helping for once and exxonmobile is doing well. lagging are defensive names. so coke, mcdonald's, verizon, johnson & johnson. united health to the down side what is missing is volume. light overall. there is a few big etfs out there, utilities, vanguard another historic high, another big volume day high priced utilities continue to do well and hong kong etfs are doing well and finally one of the only things down today is the vix we're right near the lows for august breaking 17. back to you. >> bob, thank you. >>> joining us to talk broader markets, global al chief market strategist and head of cross asset strategy at cantor fitzgera fitzgerald you know you are cautious on the markets. where do you stand on

. >> thank you very much and joining us now to react to what we just heard from the fed, bob pisani and rick santelli bob, we will start with you on stocks which have a very nice rally going. >> yeah, we are just off the highs. we're down a little bit since the announcement was made, we were at 2924, we're at 2923, just a small drop here i think the key phrase here is maintaining optionalty we all know this meeting occurred before the hikes in the tariffs that the president announced that was august 1st. the meeting occurred a day two before that. everybody is aware of that the general implication is they're still open to going in either direction what's changed since then? besides the new tariffs that were announced we had a very good july jobs report, very good retail sales maybe a little bit higher inflation. it's still a very mixed picture overall. the uncertainty is still there for the global markets and yet the u.s. economy remains strong. i don't think you have much ammunition for the people who are arguing for 50 basis points cut based on what we're seeing right now. the market'

bob pisani is watching that at the new york stock exchange. bob. >> hello, kelly. you know the markets lost some steam here after a broad-based rally this week. we're still higher on the week and only 36 stocks in the s&p 500 are down that's remarkable. a big win here the other 464 companies, they're all up just shows you how broad-based this rally has been. here's the problem many see the rall y as tenuous and tentative. there's wide disagreement over how much slowing the school sees the strong possibility of a recession in 20 to now if that happen, earnings could drop 10 to 20% over 2019 we saw them drop 23% in 2008 the more bullish school sees geo political risks subsiding. that could mean earnings could be up 5 to 10% in 2020 this is a huge difference of opinion. remember, we're only 3% from historic highs right now so with all the urn certauncert, it's hard to aggressively buy stocks at this level that's why many believe despite the bounce this week, go long, consumer staples names and utilities, short cyclical names like energy and transports, that trade has

the dow jones industrial average now down about 35 points or 1.7% let's get to bob pisani for more bob>> we are once again moving almost in lockstep with the ten-year yield, which is itself sort of a proxy for global growth or lack of global growth along with, of course, oil so we started the day, what, 1.37 on the yield on the ten-year, we're down almost ten basis points, essentially. 1.63 that's a fairly sharp jump to the downside and when you have that happen, we've had it happen the last couple of weeks, the market tends to move down and that's exactly what's been going on typically, you're seeing bank stocks weak here today and a lot of those back stocks are back to the level we saw in march and certainly back in may. not just the big banks like bank of america, but the super regionals like regents and fifth third. all the other groups are trade related. we have some of the transports weak, retail, energy, and industrials also on the downside what you want to watch out for now is not just stocks hitting new lows it's a pretty small list largely energy stocks. what you want to be c

stories driving the market action from new york to washington to the cme in chicago let's start with bob pisani tracking the volatility from here at the new york stock exchange. >> again, 10-year yield moving the stock market middle of the day. take a look. we've been overlaying this pattern for a week as it moves below 1.5% and sell programs kicked in prior to 2:00 p.m. and the market recovered as the ten-year moved over 1.5% that is the key mover of the market and weak today, first transports, problem all month. many of them down double-digits but logistics in trucking companies like jb hunt, ryder and american and fedex and weaker and all down double-digits just in the month of august. the other retailers, walmart is helping consumer sales but the big retailers getting slammed. macy's and kohl's all down 2% to 4% and gaap down 7% and energy weak today back to you. >> thank you very much. >>> to kay len for the latest on trade. >> well, will, for the u.s. and china continue to be at odds over a deal and when it would happen in a series of missives the chinese government said it will retaliate

our bob beyond burger bob pisani. >> i will show you what flattish looks like for the s&p 500 here.tish. 3%, down 1%. that will be flat. probably 2%. for the year we will be about 2% overall. what happens in the recession? everyone is trying to figure out what sectors get hit most of the s&p 500 is down about 20%. a typical garden-variety recession that you see here, earnings down about 20%. put up the next full screen. down 20% the s&p 500 price drops around 20 to 30%. earnings drop 23% in 2008. what's going on? the problem for the stock market is simple right now. if you look, we don't know about the good news is that earnings are flattish the bad news, we don't have a lot of confidence in the outlook overall. we don't have a lot of confidence for three reasons number one w he don't know about the direction of trade and tariffs. we don't know what's happening at the european and asia economy. we don't know the right policy for weaker growth. so let's look at specific sectors quickly. here is the ones getting big declines energy stocks and materials like freeport mcnamara. these se

watching to determine whether we go up or down from here let's get some answers and head downtown to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. bob? >> good to see you there, brian. we've had quite a rally since the monday bottom. here's a better stat than the one you have we have closed the gap with the friday close friday s&p close, 2932 we're there. that's a 5% range down 5% back up bond yields have risen off their lows china's currency has stabilized. that's why we're moving up, folks. so have stocks led by cyclicals and technology, industrials. they're all both now positive for the week so two big themes are emerging is there a chance for a second truce on china some say no. some say yes no determination yet and will this brief period of stability in bonds and china's currency last? we've been seeing the last two days a lot seems to rest on where everybody stands on the question of a recession in 2020 so, for example, jpmorgan out with a note today. sort of in the middle saying, the economic data highlighted elevated recession risk. the likelihood of a downtown in the coming 12 months stil